I’m pretty similar I think. Just before my last surgery I did a two hour ride outside, with a normalised power about 5% higher than my indoor FTP. I was trying reasonably hard but was by no means completely spent when I finished. Of course NP doesn’t perfectly do what it aims to, but I’m pretty sure that I could have done an outdoor test that day and smashed my indoor FTP.
I am a sweaty old sweater though, and think that I suffer in heat. I suspect that for me it’s a combination of cooling and micro-rests that makes outdoors easier.
Whilst one does need to do some extra work outdoors (e.g with core muscles), I think that’s not a massive amount on the road. I suspect that the level of trainedness is a factor in how much of a factor this is. I’m relatively untrained, so I suspect that the ability of my specific cycling (i.e leg) muscles to deliver work might be more of a limiter than my body’s overall ability to mobilise energy. So using core muscles a bit doesn’t cost me as much as I gain from better cooling and micro rests. I am obviously breathing hard, but my legs are definitely a limiting factor in an FTP test. Maybe someone like mrblobby is butting up against the limits of the total work rate that his system can deliver, so energy wasted keeping him upright and wiggling round pot holes is a more noticeable cost?
I have also heard speculation that the type / quality of trainer might slightly affect this too. A bit more inertia and ‘road feel’ might be a bit gentler on the legs and. I can’t remember where I heard that though – might have been someone selling expensive trainers. 🙂