From seeing his posts, he is an expert in a very narrow field only, and associated with the much discredited (appallingly inaccurate) computer modelling of this pandemic
Thanks but you are mistaken. Whilst I served on SAGE/SPI-M, I didn’t produce any of the “discredited” modelling, only valid statistical inference for near-term forward projections using time series stats. These analyses were used as a counter view to much of the models to hilight their uncertainty and limitations. As it turns out, the projections as gauged by area under the curve of deaths wasn’t that far out.
I did however work for two years developing an approved medicine for COVID during my day job. And have spent twenty years working on the development of new medicines, many in infectious diseases and immunology.
As for vaccine efficacy, the relative risk reduction seen with mRNA vaccines was unprecedented. Without doubt they have vastly reduced the global morbidity and mortality of SARS-COV2. That people are being infected by variants, doesn’t not detract from the burden of morbidity and mortality. I wish I’d had mine before I met SARS-COV2 the first (and second) times.
@mat_outandabout, I hope your wife feels better soon, she ought to receive the chickenpox booster vaccine to help prevent shingles. And of course antivirals or possibly sotrovimab for COVID infection, and/or Evusheld (which has to be paid for privately) for prophylaxis. Sadly the virus has moved to evade protection by Evusheld, but AZ has the SUPERNOVA trial open for Evusheld v2, if she is eligible.
