They are in a better position than we were for our first few big waves. The numbers who are hit hard, or unfortunately die, may well be huge, but that’s in absolute terms (China is obviously a hugely populous country). In percentage terms this shouldn’t be nearly as disastrous as 2020/21 was here.

At this point, it depends on how many sick people their health system can deal with at a single moment. They are speculating about doubling times measured in hours. If the Chinese health system is overwhelmed by one absolutely ginormous spike over a couple of weeks, then excess deaths will be far worse than ours.

Its quite concerning we might have another wave here, in fact it’s fairly certain is it not? Roughly calculate from the Travelling Tabby site, we seen a rise of 2%, 5% then 10% over the last three weeks.

And its bang in “peak” respiratory season.

It is not unreasonable to assume that large Chinese cities will soon look like Hong Kong did with Omicron. Relatively low vaccination rates in the elderly and less effective vaccines in the general population mean that there will be a large wave of morbidity and mortality. That is a wave of ordinary people suffering and dying. Hopefully some of the effective treatments will be used to help blunt the mortality. I think we will see a realisation of what might have been, had we not taken lockdown steps in the absence of ANY vaccination or treatments.

For the record, there is only limited evidence that Omicron in otherwise naive subjects is less virulent than Wuhan. It has a propensity for upper respiratory tract, but the experiment in a much more naive population is currently ongoing 🙁

China have trebled the vaccination rate among the elderly since March. Boosters have been made available at 3 rather than 6 months for the older population as well, to offer as much protection as possible. They are far more ready for this now than they were then, and we were back in 20/21. Vaccine take up levels surpass those is in the USA in all age groups. Yes, hospital rates are going to be very worrying, but many seeking care will be offered a great deal of protection from serious illness by their vaccines, and are being met with a medical system backed with more knowledge and more tools available to them then we could have dreamed of here two years ago. Yes, the numbers are ******* scary, but people are not facing the same odds that we were back in 20/21.

Its quite concerning we might have another wave here, in fact it’s fairly certain is it not?

We’re already in it, it’s just that the flu wave is currently worse and COVID isn’t sexy for the media anymore.

We’ve just been told we don’t need to wear masks anymore (wearing since July 21) in my NHS lab which is bizarre given the higher risk now of infection than there was in the summer

ONS COVID survey is now a lagging indicator (since the dashboard for admissions is updated daily), but shows the next BQ.1.1 wave. Vaccine and antibody escape by BQ.1.1 is demonstrated by in vitro data (lots of papers e.g. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.06.22283000v1). I still think protection against morbidity will be shown, but some of this will be from the bivalent booster and more from past infections by Omicron in the spring.

Virtually ever teenager or working adult I know over here in China, if they got a booster, had their last vaccination 12+ months ago. Mine was 8+ months ago.

Inactivated versions that may be offering minor protection to those infected with the virus so long after the last jab. We can’t just roll up to a pop-up booster centre and get one. All the students I know were denied one, even though their last one was 12+ months ago.

Also, loads of people i know simply refused to get boosters. That included supposedly educated persons. In the West it’s normally those in low income jobs who fell victim to the conspiracies. But with all the conspiracy theory rubbish that spread on the net here, I guess trust in the government is actually low judging by the poor response to vaccination drives.

This Omicron variant is weaker, but the population number, how they live, and some other factors mean that the numbers of deaths could be in the millions. Luckily they’ve managed to stop counting them so no can get upset /s.

Be nice if the pharmacies had prevented people hoarding OTC drugs as soon as pandora’s box was opened. The best thing I’ve found to help deal with the fever and body pains is a hot toddy. Paracetamol isn’t working, and I can’t use ibobrufen. Sleeping more than usual to reduce the number of hours I’m awake and in pain also helps.

Jeezus that’s a bleak update mrdestructo. Sorry to read that.

I am assuming that you are currently suffering from Covid? Hope you make a speedy recovery. And make your hot toddy without whisky – alcohol won’t boost your immune system!

Its quite concerning we might have another wave here, in fact it’s fairly certain is it not?

We’re already in it, it’s just that the flu wave is currently worse and COVID isn’t sexy for the media anymore.

We’ve just been told we don’t need to wear masks anymore (wearing since July 21) in my NHS lab which is bizarre given the higher risk now of infection than there was in the summer

Tested positive on Sunday. I’m doubled boosted, so symptoms are very mild. I’ve managed to avoid it up until now. Probably caught on work night out last Thursday, that I didn’t really want to go to anyway 🤬

I may have had it last week. Thought I had a heavy cold and cough but a friend contacted me to say she and her dad had both tested positive. We had all been sitting together at a concert the weekend before. I did 3 tests and all failed. Odd, I did loads of tests last year and they always worked OK. Anyway I’m fine today so it’s anyone’s guess whether it actually was Covid.

Friend and dad are feeling better, neither of our partners have shown any symptoms.

I’ve got it at last, double jabbed and it’s horrible – I don’t usually get colds/bugs either. Four days in and still testing positive, so looks this will be a third Christmas without seeing Dad – can’t believe it.

@bearnecessities – that’s really shit timing for you. Hope you recover in time for part of the festive season at least.

Cheers matey 🙂

5 days after your first +ve you’re good to go with very low levels of virus. It’s possible to test +ve for a long time after actually being contagious.

Has anyone heard if there are any plans in the UK for the under 50’s to get another booster jab?

I’ve had some health complications this last year or two, and I’m very keen to avoid another dose if I can avoid it…

friendly reminder that masks don’t work and neither do the jabs.

Feel free to post your medical and/or scientific qualifications to back up your assertion.

I’m on Day Six and each day I seem to have had a different collection of symptoms. 3 jabs of sinopharm/vac or whatever I got and I guess it prevented serious issues.

I am drinking portioned whisky because on day one of the announcement people hit the pharmacies and cleared the shelves of anything colds/flu related. There’s nothing left. There was a news conference today where they mentioned low stocks. Zero stocks more like! I gave a few neighbours some stuff I can’t take myself, and have some paracetamol I may have to stretch into the future. They won’t even allow family to post us some in. Only licensed importers can bring it in.

Thw state pension burden in China is going to be a bit reduced before the end of next year. Already two of my coworkers lost a parent. Expat surveys suggest 55% infected. Some conversations between nationals hint to 80-90% infection in some cities. There’s nothing anyone can do. Some regions, like mine, those in government jobs with mild symptoms were told to go into work. Gonna be a rough ride.

5 days after your first +ve you’re good to go with very low levels of virus. It’s possible to test +ve for a long time after actually being contagious.

Easier said than done! I’m still testing positive this morning (symptoms started Saturday), but whether I’m contagious or not is a lot easier to think “yeah I’m fine” if deciding to go shopping for crisps, versus risk of passing this horrible crap onto your 77 year old Dad that’s not got any family around him.

(and for the record I’ve done neither, but I’m also running dangerously low on crisps)

Has anyone heard if there are any plans in the UK for the under 50’s to get another booster jab?

I’ve had some health complications this last year or two, and I’m very keen to avoid another dose if I can avoid it…

Depends on what your health complications are. Is your GP aware of them, are they heart/respiratory related, are you taking steroids etc. Worth having a conversation with the GP and asking the question, you never know, they might bung you into one of their clinics particularly if they have spare doses.

There have been some suggestions that the newest bivalent vaccine may actually help people with LC symptoms, but I’m pretty sure that is just some anecdotal observation rather than something with firm evidence.

There’s nothing anyone can do. Some regions, like mine, those in government jobs with mild symptoms were told to go into work. Gonna be a rough ride.

Hope you pull through quickly, but fascinating to hear an inside view of the situation

BN – understand your concern but the data suggests that after 5 days your ability to infect another is much, much reduced.

5 days after your first +ve you’re good to go with very low levels of virus.

It doesn’t seem like Imperial College agree with you: „In the study, two-thirds of cases were still infectious five days after their symptoms began, and one-quarter were still infectious at seven days.“

But what would they know:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/239212/covid-19-long-infectious-when-safely-leave/amp/

Happy to be demonstrated wrong dude. How many days then? CBA to read it

It doesn’t seem like Imperial College agree with you:

The article which you linked doesn’t really appear to contradict Del’s claim that 5 days after your first +ve you’re good to go with very low levels of virus, other than to recommend using a lateral flow test:

“Based on our findings, we recommend that people with COVID-19 isolate for five days after symptoms begin, then use lateral flow tests to safely leave isolation.”

Yes it says that in two-thirds of cases are still infectious five days after symptoms begin but it doesn’t qualify how infectious the person is likely to be, so it is not necessarily contradicting Del’s claim of “very low levels of the virus”.

It does make the point:

“This is despite the levels of infectious virus people shed reducing over the course of infection.”

The link also points out the NHS guidance that people should try to stay at home and avoid contact with others for just five days.

Presumably the amount of viral particles likely to be shed after 5 days isn’t considered to be sufficient to be a serious risk. They presumably now have a reasonable idea of how much exposure to viral particles is needed to catch Covid.

HMG has made a risk assessment and settled on 5 days based on a variety of reasons, unless you’re in contact with a person at higher risk of serious illness then it’s ten days.
Ten days is also blanket advice from the WHO.

Has anyone heard if there are any plans in the UK for the under 50’s to get another booster jab?

I booked mine on the NHS online service at the same time I booked my flu jab. Had both jabs at same time too, and the vaccination centre I went to was taking walk-ins also. Worth trying the online route, though I’ve no idea if things in the ‘background’ are localised other than the flu/CV vaccination centres.

I’d managed to avoid it up until this week. Worked shelf stacking all through the Pandemic without a problem . Been retired a year now , went out for a meal with friends last Saturday, started to feel rough Monday , couple mates who were at the meal posted positive results on What’s app Tuesday. I thought better do a test sure enough bam ! 🙄Wife tested positive yesterday another at the meal positive this morning.
Amazing how it spreads considering we’ve all been jabbed to oblivion and beyond . Personally I had my best night’s sleep of the week last night and am feeling a lot better. I know I’m at the tricky stage where knowing me I’m likely to start overdoing it 🙄 My timeline seems to fit with the local surgery saying most cases currently are lasting around 48 hours .

The article which you linked doesn’t really appear to contradict Del’s claim that 5 days after your first +ve you’re good to go

Really?

„In the study, two-thirds of cases were still infectious five days after their symptoms began“

So Del says you are „good to go“ after 5 days but IC says 2/3rds of people are still infectious – I think most people would consider still infectious as not „good to go“. Unless of course you don’t care about infecting other people with Covid.

Also IC specifically say use LFTs after the 5 days to find out when you are not infectious. Again, contradicting „good to go“.

So Del says you are „good to go“ after 5 days but IC says 2/3rds of people are still infectious – I think most people would consider still infectious as not „good to go“. Unless of course you don’t care about infecting other people with Covid.

There is very little difference between what that article says and what Del claimed.

Del said “after 5 days your ability to infect another is much, much reduced”, which appears to be what the article also says.

The article also points out that the NHS advice is that after 5 days it is okay to come out of isolation, which is no different to what Del suggested.

Just because you might still be shedding viral particles after 5 day, therefore testing positive, doesn’t mean that you are posing a realistic risk of passing on the virus.

My understanding is that it takes more than a few dozen viral particles to infect someone. I don’t know how much for Covid but I believe that it is several hundred particles for other coronaviruses, and several thousands for MERS.

Unless of course you don’t care about infecting other people with Covid.

It isn’t about not caring it is about a realistic approach to a virus which is now extremely common and has affected millions of people, not a rare controllable virus. A zero covid policy is not feasible.

Exceptions obviously need to made for highly vulnerable people but that isn’t simply in relation to Covid.

Edit: You didn’t answer Del’s question btw:

How many days then?

They presumably now have a reasonable idea of how much exposure to viral particles is needed to catch Covid.

I’m not sure that’s true. There was a human challenge trial earlier this year where volunteers were infected by a ‘single nasal droplet’, but the conclusion from that seems to have been that ‘not very much’ exposure is enough. Presumably that changes according to how infectious that particular variant is.

I’m very much not a scientist, but I suspect a rigorous test of ‘how much exposure’ would be quite hard to achieve and involve exposing healthy people to a carefully metered level of the virus in a realistic setting for varying amounts of time. On top of that, different people are presumably more or less susceptible to catching the thing depending on the effectiveness of their immune system etc and you’d have to wait days to see whether people were infected or not.

I suspect ‘not very much’ is still the likely answer – which seems to be anecdotally supported – unless there have been actual experiments?

I suspect ‘not very much’ is still the likely answer

Yeah sure, but what is ‘not very much’? I pointed out that the minimum infectious dose for other coronaviruses is apparently several hundred particles, that doesn’t sound very much when you consider how many particles can be released in just one cough.

The question is how much viral particles are the two-thirds of people who still have detectable levels of Covid 5 days after first symptoms releasing?

Del said “after 5 days your ability to infect another is much, much reduced”, who is disputing that? The article isn’t.

And Del’s suggestion is is in line with NHS advice so why not accept it?

Although you could say “But what would they know”, as J-R did.

Before we catch and develop the virus we get ‘infected’ – by that I mean come into contact with the virus. But then we have lines of defence, like mucus, nasal hairs, etc., before we then get to the virus getting a foothold and starting to multiply. So simply coming into contact with the virus even at significant levels doesn’t mean you develop the disease, it might not gain a foothold in sufficient volume.

Amazing how it spreads considering we’ve all been jabbed to oblivion and beyond .

Then there’s the effect of the vaccines and past exposures, that mean the immune system can start to fight the infection. In football terms, it might not win and keep a clean sheet, but it can significantly mitigate the effects and reduce severity. So that it is still spreading is not necessarily the point, it’s the comparison of infections to hospitalizations to deaths that is now massively different than at the height of the pandemic.

Of course, it can be argued that each new infection is a chance for a new escape variant, which is also true. But a proper virologist needs to comment on whether that is still a major concern (or indeed if there is a tendency to mutate to more virulaent but less severe – the hypothesis that the virus replicants that enable it to spread better will be more favoured than those that don’t allow their host to keep on spreading, etc.)

The “tendency to mutate to be less severe” hope has never made much sense with this virus, what advantage would it gain from that? Luck may get us there, but selection will not. Recent variants have mutated back to being as “severe” as original strain after we had some that were less severe. So can go either way. Of course most of us have far more protection, so the effects of these “more severe” variants are far “less severe” on the better protected population. And no variant has been “more severed” than original.

I finally got COVID this week after managing to avoid the sodding thing. Felt really ropey Friday but tested negative. The Mrs is recovering from Cancer so she got symptoms on Tuesday. Both tested and both positive. The Mrs has been given a load of antiviral drugs to help.
Both feeling a bit better today but my head feels woolly. Folk have been talking about brain fog, I hope i don’t suffer from that as I’m slow enough as it is.
The NHS is just amazing, the care the Mrs has received has been superb.

Glad your other half is being so well looked after.

….what advantage would it gain from that? Luck may get us there, but selection will not.

I believe that by becoming less severe the advantage for the virus is that it becomes even more successful in spreading, in comparison to more severe strains. This has been suggested as a reason for omicron’s phenomenal success.

Indeed it is apparently precisely because covid is so mild in most cases that it has been so successful. Often people are unaware that they have it as they walk around spreading it because the symptoms are so mild.

As I understand it one of the reasons influenza is considerably less successful than the common cold is because of the tendency of people to self-isolate when they are at their most infectious with it – no one wants to go to work or the cinema etc when they have full blown flu.

Apparently apart from low levels of immunity the principal reason that Spanish flu spread so phenomenally a hundred years ago was because it did the reverse of what flu usually does – it actually increased people’s likelihood of traveling and therefore spreading it.

Spanish flu affected millions of soldiers on the front lines of WW1, as a consequence because they were too ill to fight they moved back from the front lines thereby spreading it further.

Then when WW1 ended millions of men moved across Europe and North American back to their communities spreading it even further in a very short period of time.

My mate is meant to be spending Christmas with me and the family. She was round at her brothers yesterday, he had been feeling rough for 10 or so days yet hadn’t even tested. Sure enough, after inviting her round it transpired he has covid. Absolute idiocy

So if he’s still feeling ill, with a faint line on the test, how likely is it he’s still infectious after 10 or so days? Obviously she’s not keen on coming round if she is likely to have caught it from him

I’ve just tested before going to my sister’s for Christmas. Negative – not sure how much difference it’ll make given that her family have all had winter cough/cold/flu of death… 🙄

I booked mine on the NHS online service at the same time I booked my flu jab. Had both jabs at same time too, and the vaccination centre I went to was taking walk-ins also

Mine wasn’t having any of that. Not 50 or over = sod off. I did get my flu jab though.