My take on it is

Isolating due to asymptomatic test – fit for work ( from home)
Isolating with symptoms ( PCR) – feet up
Prioritises the economy

Assuming you can work from home……

@ceepers I have to say I disagree with some of the previous posters. I tested positive on LFT just before Christmas, despite being very careful. Three PCR’s over the following week (two different test sites and a postal one) all came back negative, that and the complete lack of symptoms led me to believe I probably didn’t have it but I was somehow triggering the lft’s. Two weeks later I still had a positive lft so either I had it completely asymptomatically for over two weeks that was untraceable by PCR or it’s possible to trigger positive LFTs some other way. I’d be pretty annoyed if I was repeatedly isolating for no reason.

Edited to add that the lft line was very variable, mostly incredibly faint but occasionally pretty clear. I did a lot of lft’s while I was waiting for the pcr results to come back!

That’s interesting!

I would say my lft results are similar to what you describe as well.

It’s perhaps what you’re eating before the test…remember when the kids were faking LFT’s with Fruitshoots!

My Aunty had similar results from PCR’s/LFT’s before Xmas, she never really got to bottom of it either.

I should add, I’ve also been very careful, not really had much interaction over Xmas and wear an FFP3 mask 99% of the time at work & recently have been in tescos which is about the only other place I’ve been in the last ten day!)

it’s really tricky –

Looking at it purely on risk – benefit

If you have it and go back out into the world and pass it on to your patients the consequence could be severe (IDK what you do but assume it’s something medical)

If you don’t have it and isolate then your patients get delayed treatment, hopefully not too serious. But you also get locked up for 10 days as well.

I see Scotland has saw sense and allowed crowds back for sports because it made little to no difference whatsoever. There hasn’t even been time for it to work and its been dropped. That tells you everything you need to know.

Here in Wales that business killing doom merchant Drakeford is left looking like the gormless clown he is. Instead of admitting he got it wrong and dropping these ridiculous restrictions, he’s still desperately trying to paint a picture of woe in a feeble attempt to justify his business crippling restrictions on hospitality.
One local pub has said they got £2,000 from the Welsh government recently. Won’t even cover the screens they had to buy in let alone cover lost earnings. An insult.
A nightclub got 15k. They said that’s a fairly poor night’s takings. One night. To cover how many weeks of being forced to close now? Insulting and damaging.

ceepers
Full Member

My GP mate has discussed it with his partners and the consensus is to stay off work to avoid the risk to vulnerable patients which is what I’m doing.

If you work face to face with vulnerable people, I’d say you can’t take the chance.

That tells you everything you need to know.

It tells you that over the busy xmas/newyear period, when there are normally some of the best attended sports events of the season, Scotland made a hard choice about which social contacts should be prioritised.

I’m sure Wales will follow soon enough when it comes to reducing their measures. I’d expect something on about the 18th, when the xmas family meeting effect on hospital admissions in Wales is fully know.

@jonv & @seosam that’s exactly my thoughts really. Frustrating but better to err on the side of caution.

I’d love to know the explanation for the tests though and whether I’ve actually had Covid or there’s some kind of anomaly

It’s sounding very common, exactly the same for my daughter.

My partner also had a week of very feint positive LFTs, and 2 negative PCRs. It was accompanied by a mild cold and occasional cough, so not entirely symptom free, and she skipped Christmas as a precaution.

Any explanation as to why the Scottish numbers have dropped so dramatically? I’m assuming this is just a result of pcr tests not being required rather than an actual drop in transmission?

I’d guess so, daily hospitalisation and deaths and the ONS weekly figures, should still be reliable though.

tpbiker
Free Member
Any explanation as to why the Scottish numbers have dropped so dramatically? I’m assuming this is just a result of pcr tests not being required rather than an actual drop in transmission?

The infections surveys will keep us on top of that data, but they lag by quite a bit.

But consider over the last 6 months, from 4th July to 31st dec. The infection survey estimates 2,121,300 infections in Scotland (238k for the week up till the 31st alone). I think it’s possible we are just running out of fuel on this recent run, given previous infections and booster levels. Although granted, we don’t know how many of them are reinfections.

Will be interesting to see the next 2 releases of the infection survey anyhow.

This page gives you the historical estimates.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/covid19infectionsurveyscotland

loum
Free Member

@poopscoop
thank you. That looks like the link I was looking for.

No problem at all mate.

We (the UK) seem to be doing a very good job of ignoring the deaths currently being recorded. Shrugging away at 398 yesterday like it was the result of successful strategy.

Deaths were 1151 on the 12th Jan 21 so much more positive than this time last year.

We (the UK) seem to be doing a very good job of ignoring the deaths currently being recorded. Shrugging away at 398 yesterday like it was the result of successful strategy.

I said last Autumn that anything under 500 per day would become background noise.

We (the UK) seem to be doing a very good job of ignoring the deaths currently being recorded. Shrugging away at 398 yesterday like it was the result of successful strategy.

It’s a tricky one. Deaths obviously lag infections and admissions so hard to judge where we are – that suggests they will continue to increase for a week or two yet snd assumes infections and admissions are permanently dropping. The number in hospital dropped yesterday but was that due to deaths or discharges?

Its obviously way better than last January, despite higher infection rates. Vaccination works.

Quick back of fag packet – bad flu year is 20,000 deaths, so 200+ a day over 3 months. I am NOT saying that Covid is the same as flu, but worth bearing in mind for perspective.

Be interesting to see the excess death figures for this winter against the pre-pandemic average, with seemingly low flu levels.

It’s not as bad as it was, not as good as it could/should be.

I see JVT is off in March.

Ewan
Free Member
I see JVT is off in March.

Yeah, interesting timing.

I’m glad he’s working till the end of March though. Need all the sane voices we can get these days.

Self isolation cut to 5 days.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59980505

5 full days – and you have to still test on D5 and D6 and then you can release as soon as clear on D6. It’s not a definite thing, plenty are testing positive right through to D10

daughter got negatives at D6 and D7 and consequently free, my wife’s on D7 and still getting positives,  and son was positive on D6 but negative on D7 and will be doing the 24hr later D8 later today

Something to cheer…

Health Secretary Sajid Javid says a trial of potentially life-saving antiviral treatments will be extended to people aged over 50, and those over 18 with underlying health conditions, who test positive for #COVID19.https://t.co/wc2TGo6Sim📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 pic.twitter.com/rafvJoLjac

— Sky News (@SkyNews) January 13, 2022

Self isolation cut to 5 days.

The science (and risk) just about backs that up if we exclude the unvaccinated from the shorter isolation times. Studies have shown that they are infectious for longer (and LFT are flawed).

Stop leaning on LFT for release from isolation (perhaps our local pharmacies could meet demand for test kits then), and make it 5 days isolation for vaccinated, 10 days for unvaccinated.

is there any way to extract posting dates and times on this thread. I reckon there would be a strong correlation with the case rate.

make it 5 days isolation for vaccinated, 10 days for unvaccinated.

The problem with this is enforcing it with the f’wits who wouldn’t abide by the rules. ‘Uman rites, init?

I’m not saying it isn’t a good idea, I just don’t think it would work with the dafties.

Regarding the people on here that are getting positive LFT’s but negative PCRs I had a thought. Could one of the more knowlageable people on here tell me if I’m thinking rubbish?

If I recall correctly, LFT’s test by using antibodies to react to proteins found in the virus shell.

PCR’s however work by amplifying key fragments of RNA from the virus.

So, they are testing for slightly different things, that does make me wonder if it’s possible that there’s something else doing the rounds (perhaps another virus) that has proteins that trigger the LFT but isn’t Covid-19 so doesn’t test positive on the PCR.

Is that even possible?

to me the 5 day announcement is just another dead cat on the table to distract from the real issues

to me the 5 day announcement is just another dead cat on the table to distract from the real issues

+1

5 days is just somewhere on the line between 7 and 0, which is where we are headed in short order.

So next follow ikea in reducing sick pay for unvaccinated staff who have to self isolate but haven’t tested positive

This strikes me as a crazy thing to do. Non vaccinated, many of whom by the very fact they aren’t vaccinated have proven they don’t really give a shit about the implications of this virus on society, are hardly going to be encouraged to follow self isolation rules if they ate not being paid enough to do so

I see Scotland has saw sense and allowed crowds back for sports because it made little to no difference whatsoever. There hasn’t even been time for it to work and its been dropped. That tells you everything you need to know.

Here in Wales that business killing doom merchant Drakeford is left looking like the gormless clown he is. Instead of admitting he got it wrong and dropping these ridiculous restrictions, he’s still desperately trying to paint a picture of woe in a feeble attempt to justify his business crippling restrictions on hospitality.
One local pub has said they got £2,000 from the Welsh government recently. Won’t even cover the screens they had to buy in let alone cover lost earnings. An insult.
A nightclub got 15k. They said that’s a fairly poor night’s takings. One night. To cover how many weeks of being forced to close now? Insulting and damaging.

Just wanted to say that WG and the FM can’t and hasn’t got it all right… but I for one am glad I’m in Wales and have a lot more trust in the govt here than I do of for the govt in Westminster. I don’t see Drakeford as a clown and neither do the people in my family working in healthcare (including a doc and nurse working in hospitals).

The problem with this is enforcing it with the f’wits who wouldn’t abide by the rules. ‘Uman rites, init?

There’s no real enforcement of the current “rules”… if you don’t want to abide them, just don’t report any tests and keep your head down. Having rules based on the science informs people of what they can do to help protect others… there is already nothing you can do about those that don’t want to do that. Telling someone who isn’t vaccinated (for whatever reason, not everyone in that situation is just being awkward) that they need to isolate for a bit longer, as they are likely to be infectious for longer, is telling them the truth for them to use and inform their own choices.

@HarryTuttle there’s definitely something weird going on!

I’m now on day 4 from my first +ve test, no symptoms, LFT is negative again today (was negative yesterday) No-one else in my household has a sign of it either.

I still don’t really fully believe I’ve had Covid. It’s possible I did catch it between my previous test ( which was 6 days before the first positive ) so I’m further along than my testing regime suggests but the pcr tests should still have detected it.

There must be some reason behind it. I know the testail nag isn’t flawless but I’ve either had three false positive lateral flow tests or two false negative PCR, both scenarios are supposedly statistically exceedingly unlikely!

(That includes a positive lft and a negative pcr taken within 90 mins of each other!)

So many people have covid, many without symptoms, that deaths of people with covid may overestimate those in which covid was even a factor: <span style=”text-decoration: underline;”>Very approximate</span> calculation:

Deaths per year in the UK, about 600 000 – that’s about 1600 per day

People with covid over the last fortnight, about 4 million – or about 1 in 16 people

Number of people per day who would typically have died from something else but also had covid = 1600/16 = 100

There are many details on which you can pick holes in that, such as people with covid not going out so not exposed to traffic collisions, or many of those who would have typically died having had medical conditions that covid made worse, but is it roughly valid?

Back to this are we? Well, the death certificate data will tell us one way or the other later… that takes longer to compile though. From what we’ve learnt from previous waves, we can probably safely ignore the cries of “died with, not from” as same old, same old.

Most people who die don’t occupy an ICU bed for weeks. The comparison with a normal flu and pneumonia season is interesting but again the impact on ICU isn’t in the same league. Then there’s long Covid.

Covid clearly isn’t “normal” and can’t be treated as such. Thankfully it hasn’t been and is only now being “let rip” when vaccinationa and a milder form make that an acceptable option.