@ctk – where are these rumours circulating?

A couple of people in work are convinced. One has heard it from someone who works for the Welsh govt.

Me and my OH both work in schools and are both hearing the same rumours.

I really hope not im due to come home to see my family before xmas.

A couple of people in work are convinced. One has heard it from someone who works for the Welsh govt.

There’s always someone ‘in the know’ it’s generally horse shite.

So bbc are reporting early studies saying Pfizer antibodies 40x less effective against omicron. From 12 people is not conclusive but even if the direction is partially correct this sounds very bad?

There’s always someone ‘in the know’ it’s generally horse shite.

Source?

That’s a bit of a selective interpretation.

The article starts

Existing vaccines should still protect people who contract the Omicron variant from severe Covid cases, a World Health Organization (WHO) official says.

It comes as the first lab tests of the new variant in South Africa suggest it can partially evade the Pfizer jab.

Researchers say there was a “very large drop” in how well the vaccine’s antibodies neutralised the new strain.

But the WHO’s Dr Mike Ryan said there was no sign Omicron would be better at evading vaccines than other variants.

Pinch of salt needed for 3rd hand rumours. It feels so similar to last year I think people are putting 2+2 together.

Seems to me that timing for a welsh lockdown is unlikely to happen, I know Drakeford is pretty good at just following science rather than popular opinion, but I think it would be political suicide to cancel Christmas in Wales if it wasn’t a UK wide thing.

I think people are putting 2+2 together.

& coming up with whatever the F they like. Let’s wait for the facts & not descend into tiresome rumour mungering.

Source?

Irony.

A 40x loss of potency is concerning but not unreasonable based on the changes in epitopes where antibodies bind (e.g., E484). But think of I like this… On month post second dose there is 95% protection. A 40-fold reduction would be 5.3 half-lives of reduction, which is 11 months. So protection against Omicron now will be about the same as wild type ten months later. Reports suggest that the booster gives an increase in antibodies (and hence protection) of up to 10-20x compares to first course. So a booster will restore you to about 25-50% of the original protection and is a therefore a good thing.

Note that this is for symptomatic infections rather than hospitalisations. We do not know the relative potency for hospitalisations compared to infections. I can imagine it is at least 8x because at six months protection seems unperturbed. The same argument also holds for hospitalisations but, the 40x shift is likely to be a smaller shift for severe morbidity.

[TL:DR] A booster will restore some of the lost protection from both waning antibodies and reduced potency to Omicron. Which is why the roll-out is being accelerated.

Nobeerinthefridge
Free Member
Source?

Irony.

Deliberate irony ffs!

on the subject of booster. anyone 40+ tried re-booking?

I’ve already got one booked for 22nd based on the prior guidance but wondering if it’s worth trying to get one sooner.

Deliberate irony ffs!

lol, too early for this bear!

A comparison with delta would be more useful for the UK (and most of the world) situation surely? All the real world data we have for how well the vaccines work is from exposure to delta, not the wild type and vaccines are already much less potent against delta.

on the subject of booster. anyone 40+ tried re-booking?

Yes, I’ve rebooked mine for tomorrow morning. The booking website lets you check availability before cancelling your existing booking at least now, which reduces the chance that you cancel and then can’t get another appointment (there’s still a window if availability is very limited and gets booked out in the meantime!)

no dice. next nearest is 31st, 40 miles away…

A comparison with delta would be more useful for the UK

About 10x less potent at neutralising compared to Delta. No publications yet.

60 and turned away from my appointment (Scotland) because I was a few days too early. Now coming near the end of a 6 week wait for another appointment. Had to go through the “you have had an appointment” thing over two days of phone calls to score that.

Rumours of a lockdown in Wales starting at the end of next week.

Because of 5 cases of the new variant? Bullsh*t. Not even Drippy would be so stupid

There is already a particular problem with hospitals in Wales while they deal with current levels of admissions. They might be forced to move ahead of the UK. They should be making plans to move quickly, while also hoping such plans aren’t needed.

We’re no where near a lockdown anywhere in the UK and in the last Welsh Government briefing they said as much. There would be no basis for a lockdown and it would cause riots.

It would be politically very difficult, and will be avoided if it is at all possible, and we all hope (and I expect) it will be avoided. But a virus isn’t bothered by politics. It isn’t bothered by our hopes (or expectations).

on the subject of booster. anyone 40+ tried re-booking?

I’ve already got one booked for 22nd based on the prior guidance but wondering if it’s worth trying to get one sooner

Wife been trying today… computer says no..

“we’re waiting for a computer update” when she called the number….

I’ve just booked mine having turned 50 in the middle of the 3 months, however not until the 30th as that was the first date free.

I had my Moderna booster a week ago. It went much better than the AZs, just a mild cold feeling rather than weeks of head and neck aches.

Among Madame’s colleagues there was a reluctance to take up Moderna vaccination slots. Moderna is limited to over 30s here after some heart issues in younger males but even her older female colleagues were hesitant hoping for a Pfizer slot. This week they’ve changed their minds and are signed up for Moderna.

It would be politically very difficult, and will be avoided if it is at all possible, and we all hope (and I expect) it will be avoided. But a virus isn’t bothered by politics. It isn’t bothered by our hopes (or expectations).

There’s no justification for it at all. If the new variant is going to be used there’s only been 5 cases so thats out.
Cases are steadily low in Wales and have been for ages and deaths are low too, single figures most days. Its total horse sh*t and people need to stop scaremongering, the media do enough of that already.

RE booster – I had my text from ScotGov last week, phoned up the next day and had very helpful person. The ‘only’ local place offered (Stirling Uni) had nothing until end of February, as did places like Perth, Alloa and Falkirk. Helpful advisor said ‘oh, there is another local place, but it doesn’t show up as local’ – and so I am booked in Stirling Community Hospital before Christmas.

on the subject of booster. anyone 40+ tried re-booking?

Yes just checked Malvern Showground again and there’s lots of new appointments been opened up so I changed me and Mrs P from new year to Monday next week.

plan B time

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1468528194777145344

About 10x less potent at neutralising compared to Delta. No publications yet.

If the booster shot produces 10x more antibodies than the first course (is that first course after six months or first course at ‘full strength’?) then intuitively someone who has had a booster shot should be in a position with Omicron as they would have been with Delta when they had their first 2 jabs. That doesn’t sound too terrible (but may well be horribly wrong of course!), but does explain why the boosters are being boosted 🙂

Class, perfect timing when I’m due to travel home to see my mother who has just been moved into a care home.

I love Christmas.

@joepud and @stcolin , I hope you (and all of us) still get to see your (our) people this Christmas. Prioritising that should be the aim of any new measures to try and keep a check on transmission. I’d happily lean heavily on zoom in the coming weeks to balance up family meet ups this year.

There’s no justification for it at all. If the new variant is going to be used there’s only been 5 cases so thats out.
Cases are steadily low in Wales and have been for ages and deaths are low too, single figures most days. Its total horse sh*t and people need to stop scaremongering, the media do enough of that already.

The Welsh health system has struggled for years and looking from the outside, I can see how relatively small increases in Covid may mean the system might need protecting sooner than England might.

Obviously I hope it doesn’t come to that anywhere in the UK, there will be real issues if another lockdown is needed. Wiser heads than ours will have a very tough call to make.

But you may need to get your barricades and petrol bombs ready at some point over the winter, but I really hope we can avoid it.

Tried to get my kids boostered at a walk-in yesterday. Both venues said online they were accepting all ages, got there and they were only taking over 40s. I can obviously understand why, but if the policy changes, they should let people know.

So we’ve had 30 – 40k new cases a day for the last couple of months. If you are diganosed you need to isolate for 10 days. The ‘Work from home’ guidance is not in place. Granted alot of people are still working from home, but how come the country is still running, might one suspect people aren’t adhering to the Self isolation rules? And that’s of those that are even going for tests.

Rumours of a lockdown in Wales starting at the end of next week.

I don’t know about that, but my Wife has been given warning that she might be redeployed to giving boosters full-time from next week and leave might be cancelled soon until at least Feb.

Rumour around the NHS in Cardiff at least is that Omicron has got WG worried, they’re seeing data that suggests we’ll have a huge wave of cases over the next 6-8 weeks and even if Omicron is half as fatal as Delta, the sheer number of cases at the same time as Flu season might be too much for the hospitals. I doubt we’ll see a full lockdown, but greater restrictions seem likely just to try to level out the cases of Covid and Flu.

on the subject of booster. anyone 40+ tried re-booking?

Yeah. I had a late December slot so re-booked last week for today. Just back from having the booster now.

I would suggest keep trying as new slots are opening up now.

rebooked for friday. could have had it tomorrow but that would have involved going to torquay…

Do you have to cancel before rebooking still? I’m boosted, missus booked in 2 weeks & daughters second jab next week. My sons second will be in late Jan. 🤞🏻🤞🏻