Viewing 40 posts - 34,481 through 34,520 (of 37,494 total)
  • The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.
  • Premier Icon Poopscoop
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    Yeah, we live in Kent.

    Premier Icon spekkie
    Free Member

    We know people who were visiting SA from the UK for a wedding and now can’t get home due to flight restrictions. She’s a nurse – I can’t remember what he does.

    Premier Icon Poopscoop
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    Now we have community transmission of omicron I wonder how much longer the travel restrictions will remain?

    Premier Icon martinhutch
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    I can’t see much point once the variant is fully seeded and growing strongly here.

    Premier Icon neilnevill
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    Having had very little personal closeness to cases so far, today 2 work colleagues got positive LF tests and my daughter’s school has a positive PCR case. Probably coincidence,… Right?

    Premier Icon dantsw13
    Free Member

    I’ve never known as many friends/colleagues testing +ve as is happening now. It’s everywhere.

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
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    We seemed to hit peak local infections around October, linked to schools, and mainly kids. Now seem to be having the adult version.

    Premier Icon dyna-ti
    Free Member

    Yes you do, you lying bellend

    I used less language than that and got a weeks holiday. Though at least i ***** out my sweary word.

    Something that should be noted for the anti vaccination crowd is the number of non vaccinated who have died from covid, or its complications.

    I think that total is in the region of 150,000.

    Premier Icon theotherjonv
    Full Member

    That’s interesting and made me go looking. Between Jan and Jul there were 51,281 deaths from Covid. 50,641 were unvaccinated; 640 were vaccinated (that’s the last report/review, I wonder what the full year number will be, probably similar)

    Further, of those 640, 384 were people who either already had, or caught the virus less than 2 weeks after their second vax, ie before it had chance to take effect. 256 were people who’d had the vax and had time for it to be effective.

    For balance – there are also 9 reported cases where the vaccine led to the death. I know one is on here and don’t mean to underestimate the impact of any death.

    Premier Icon matt_outandabout
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    Re the comments about peak transmission was in kids, in October and comment about more adults seem to be getting it.

    I looked through Scottish statistics on travelling tabby. Notable that vast majority of the slow drop in numbers is due to children and young adults. The infection rates there have dropped steeply. Among adults, a very gently decline.

    What is rising is the number of adults who have hospitalisation due to CV19 again, masked by the fall in children and young people.

    Premier Icon martinhutch
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    That’s interesting and made me go looking. Between Jan and Jul there were 51,281 deaths from Covid. 50,641 were unvaccinated; 640 were vaccinated (that’s the last report/review, I wonder what the full year number will be, probably similar)

    Further, of those 640, 384 were people who either already had, or caught the virus less than 2 weeks after their second vax, ie before it had chance to take effect. 256 were people who’d had the vax and had time for it to be effective.

    For balance – there are also 9 reported cases where the vaccine led to the death. I know one is on here and don’t mean to underestimate the impact of any death.

    You’d have thought you couldn’t argue against that, but they’ll try, bless them. Even I didn’t think it would be that stark a difference.

    Premier Icon theotherjonv
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    Yep. In simpler numbers, for every 200 people that died of Covid in H1 this year, 199 were unvaccinated and 1 was (properly) vaxxed.

    Premier Icon shuhockey
    Free Member

    @theotherjonv are you able to share the source of that info please. We have an anti-vaxer in the family and would love to share those stats with them!! Thanks

    Premier Icon gray
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    Though, just to acknowledge the limitations of that analysis, for a portion of that time period there were more unvaccinated people than vaccinated. Not sure on the overall balance over the full half year, but that would affect the interpretation one way or the other.

    Premier Icon theotherjonv
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    Though, just to acknowledge the limitations of that analysis, for a portion of that time period there were more unvaccinated people than vaccinated. Not sure on the overall balance over the full half year, but that would affect the interpretation one way or the other.

    Yes, that is true and a limitation of course. Equally when H2 figures are available you can say the other way – at whatever we are, say 80% vacc rate then there 4x as many vaxxed vs unvaxxed now. Same as car crash deaths where people are wearing seatbelts; you can’t directly compare and claim seatbelt wearing makes you more likely to die in a car crash but how you normalise it out IDK.

    Premier Icon gray
    Full Member

    Well the standard simple way is to calculate what percentage of vaccinated people died, and compare against what percentage of unvaccinated people died. From that you have a straightforward measure of the reduction in risk of death attributed to vaccination.

    Of course, we’re just heading deeper down rabbit holes, because there’s an assumption in there that the vaccination status is the only difference between the populations being compared. So at the level of a whole country where vaccination proceeded by age (/baseline risk) categories, it’s fundamentally flawed right from the start, even before you begin to wonder whether the fact that someone decided to get a vaccine says something (on average) about how seriously they take the COVID-19 risk, or even whether their behaviours become more risky once they’ve had the vaccine…

    I believe (but do not offer references!) that the reduction in risk of death provided by vaccination status is sufficiently large that it dwarfs all but the most heinous contravention of assumptions. Also, I suspect that the published estimates of protection % attempt to match the groups being compared at least as well as is practicable.

    Premier Icon Gribs
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    That’s interesting and made me go looking. Between Jan and Jul there were 51,281 deaths from Covid. 50,641 were unvaccinated; 640 were vaccinated (that’s the last report/review, I wonder what the full year number will be, probably similar)

    I’m absolutely not anti-vax but that data wouldn’t be surprising even if vaccines didn’t work at all as the vast majority of people through that period wouldn’t have been double jabbed. Even my parents in their early 70’s only had their second dose in early April.

    Premier Icon jhinwxm
    Free Member

    This new variant scaremongering is beyond belief.

    Its criminal what’s happening now, with the media putting the fear of god into those listening without any basis whatsoever.
    No one has died from this new variant (that’s been around for a lot longer than they told us) and no one is in hospital with it. Let that sink in and then look at the headlines in the news. Justified? Not in any way shape or form.

    Premier Icon Nobeerinthefridge
    Free Member

    I tend to not pay any attention to news outlets and their nonsense, but after the last 20 months, I think planning for the worst and hoping for the best is the way to go jhinwxm.

    Premier Icon kelvin
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    This new variant scaremongering is beyond belief

    Page 1… first reply in this thread…

    the disaster fappers will be here shortly…you can guess who

    Everyone should have learnt by now, that with a virus that spreads with exponential growth, precautionary early action is essential. Not doing so severely decreases options later. This is like piloting a big ship… small adjustments in direction performed early is the way to avoid sudden lurches, high costs, and big risks later.

    Premier Icon tpbiker
    Free Member

    no one is in hospital with it.

    In South Africa I’m reading that apparently most of the folks in hospital with it are in for something else and tested positive subsequently

    I suppose The ideal scenario is that it’s no worse than a bad cold, but infectious enough to out compete delta.

    If however it turns out it’s as deadly (or worse) we are truly xxxxed

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Full Member

    No one has died from this new variant

    In South Africa they have, but low numbers and far too early to really estimate the IFR.

    This is worth reading from Tshwane region

    “The main observation that we have made over the last two weeks is that the majority of patients in the COVID wards have not been oxygen dependent. SARS-CoV-2 has been an incidental finding in patients that were admitted to the hospital for another medical, surgical or obstetric reason.”

    And I don’t disagree about the scaremongering – which I have avoided reading btw. Prudence is merited but it is too early for doomongering. Particularly given the status of the SAfrican population, who are younger (milder) but much less vaccinated (25%, so possibly higher morbidity).

    My expectation is that vaccine sera will show a reduced neutralising capacity (say 8x lower), but this will be sufficient to stave off morbidity (hospitalisations) – particularly with boosters that give a higher response than first vaccination, and that we should still be looking hard at the 50k daily cases of Delta AY.4.2 that are slowly increasing.

    There may be implications for some therapeutic antibodies, but this is still not fully established. They are, however, little used in the U.K. a the moment.

    Premier Icon theotherjonv
    Full Member

    I’m absolutely not anti-vax but that data wouldn’t be surprising even if vaccines didn’t work at all as the vast majority of people through that period wouldn’t have been double jabbed. Even my parents in their early 70’s only had their second dose in early April.

    True, but even then a lot of those deemed most susceptible to dying from Covid would have been though.

    I saw elsewhere but can’t find now “32x more deaths in unvaxxed” based on more recent data. That’s 194/200 or 97/100 or thereabouts

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    And…. “many of those people died before they could be fully vaccinated” doesn’t really convince me that the vaccination programme wasn’t worth while.

    Premier Icon Ewan
    Free Member

    BBC is reporting that people in NERVTAG are saying that omicron has a doubling time of 3 days (!!!) instead of 3 weeks for delta. That will put cases at the 25k/day by new years eve, and that’s assuming the 101 cases being reported today is accurate (unlikely) (and ignoring the existing numbers of cases).

    Last lockdown was at 35k. Xmas might happen, but if that’s right new years presumably won’t…

    Premier Icon Nobeerinthefridge
    Free Member

    Last lockdown was at 35k

    Yes, but we’ve been beyond that figure since then, and not locked down. It’s not just a case numbers game.

    Premier Icon matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    BBC is reporting that people in NERVTAG are saying that omicron has a doubling time of 3 days (!!!) instead of 3 weeks for delta.

    Nicola Sturgeon just made similar statement – R over 2 already and doubling time of 3 days.

    I know of three different schools today where all pupils and teachers in one class have just been sent for testing. hmmm.

    Premier Icon paul0
    Free Member

    BBC is reporting that people in NERVTAG are saying that omicron has a doubling time of 3 days (!!!) instead of 3 weeks for delta

    Fingers crossed that the anecdotes about milder illness prove to be true. Hold tight!

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Full Member

    On the subject go doubling, AY.4.2 is doubling in frequency every week compared to normal Delta, so one hopes this too is less pathogenic.

    Premier Icon Ewan
    Free Member

    Fingers crossed that the anecdotes about milder illness prove to be true. Hold tight!

    I’ve not actually seen that from anything reputable…. have I missed it?

    Premier Icon james-rennie
    Full Member

    I’ve not actually seen that from anything reputable…. have I missed it?

    No, not missed anything. Those anecdotes are just, you know, anecdotal😉 However, anywhere reputable is saying ‘too soon to tell’.

    Premier Icon Pieface
    Free Member

    Apparently there’s a stealth version of Omicron that can evade the current PCR tests, so the numbers may be even higher than thought.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/07/scientists-find-stealth-version-of-omicron-not-identifiable-with-pcr-test-covid-variant

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Full Member

    stealth version of Omicron

    Depends on whether one tests for S-gene with a primer that binds at position 69/70 on the spike protein. Some countries do not test all three genes in PCR anyway. But it is not hard to believe that Omicron came from an SAfrican strain called C.1.2 that acquired extra mutations, multiple times, and some may not have this deletion. Numbers of Delta are already high though.

    Premier Icon swedishmatt
    Free Member

    I wonder if I’m somehow impossible to PCR. I’ve 100% had covid 6 weeks (October 18) ago after high temperature, negative. 8 days after that lost all sense of smell. Took a test yesterday, 5 weeks after losing sense of smell, negative.

    October 2020 high temperature, took a PCR test – negative. Like crazy quick onset and I’m a connoisseur in having had temperature.

    Spent the past 5-10 days with wife and kids who have all had COVID (PCR positive).

    Why don’t I test positive when I should? Eh?

    Premier Icon tpbiker
    Free Member

    Why don’t I test positive when I should? Eh?

    Interesting you say that

    My niece had symptoms of covid at same time all her family tested positive. Yet she took 3 tests and had a negative for each..

    So yeah maybe some folks just don’t positive

    Premier Icon ctk
    Full Member

    Rumours of a lockdown in Wales starting at the end of next week.

    Premier Icon Edukator
    Free Member

    Your negative tests don’t surprise Swedishmatt. The chances of a false negative are like throwing a six on a dice. After 5 weeks you’d expect (and hope) to be negative again. When people have the first symptoms (fever in your case) they often test negative and only test positive a few days later. Then there’s the odds of throwing a double six, or even a triple six. Anecdotely the first under 20 to die of Covid in France had two negative PCR tests and then finally tested positive hours before death.

    Premier Icon matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    Rumours of a lockdown in Wales starting at the end of next week

    Sauce?

    I know the Welsh govt were suggesting mid January peak again.

    Nicola seemed to rule out something like that here, as long as people are cautious…

    Premier Icon Gribs
    Full Member

    Rumours of a lockdown in Wales starting at the end of next week.

    How could they have any form of meaningful lockdown without measures/finances in place to support those stopped from working?

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