Hate it when I agree with Cummings.

He’s right though. If they’re not planning for a possible period of “stay at home” in January, they’re not doing their jobs. Hopefully it won’t come to that, but everyone should be planning for it. If the NHS is hit hard post Xmas meet ups they’ll have little option. “Learn to live with it” includes making sure medical provision is there for you to help you live through it. Scaling back other health care to deal with Covid can only go so far, at some point you have to take action to control infection and reduce hospitalisations. Let’s hope January brings better news. But that doesn’t mean not planning for possible bad news.

^^ Spot on with my thoughts. It really is fingers crossed, as trite as that sounds.

How big must the swab be to tickle the tonsils on a **** hippo?

Lol, yes. That requires some real commitment.

I’m assuming they can just test the hippo poo

The Evolving Use of Faecal Immunochemical Testing – Accelerated by the COVID-19 Pandemic

That is slightly more appealing I guess.😁

Tga in Aus has provisionally agreed that kids from the age of 5 can have a vaccine and, according to the press, will be pushing this through with urgency. Even said they are ordering in now.

I’m confused. WHO says We don’t need to restrict travel and the new variant is not a huge concern. Our govt is restricting people again and saying Omicron IS a huge concern.

Who do you trust? Your own govt or the WHO?

I’m pretty sure quite a few in this thread will be switching their allegiance from the WHO to Bojo.

I’m confused. WHO says We don’t need to restrict travel and the new variant is not a huge concern. Our govt is restricting people again and saying Omicron IS a huge concern.

Who do you trust? Your own govt or the WHO?

Its classic Boris. He knows his rating are taking a bit of a hit and it doesn’t take a genius to realise people have said they have been slow to react. So now there has been a change so hes taking action now to get people on side again. I extremely doubt there will be any lockdown/wfh in Jan.

I don’t trust the gov’ one bit but equally i don’t know whats true and what isnt. I just hope this theory of it being more contagious but less lethal proves out.

Where has the WHO said “the new variant is not a huge concern.”?

The WHO have literally done the opposite by declaring it a variant of concern

https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern

So far the data on whether it is or isn’t less lethal is not known

The WHO have said blanket travel hans are not the right move
But they do say

National authorities in countries of departure, transit and arrival may apply a multi-layered risk mitigation approach to potentially delay and/or reduce the exportation or importation of the new variant. Such measures may include screening of passengers prior to travelling and/or upon arrival, including via the use of SARS-CoV-2 testing or the application of quarantine to international travellers.

At the moment the usual covid deniers, antimaskers etc are telling us it’s not to worry about, they have no proof regards lethality either way.

All we do know is that cases are rising incredibly fast in South Africa & elsewhere

tga in Aus has provisionally agreed that kids from the age of 5 can have a vaccine and, according to the press, will be pushing this through with urgency.

Yes – this means it’s effectively approved, doses ordered ready to start injecting early Jan apparently. I’m eager…. my 5 year old starts school at the end of Jan.

Meanwhile, mum has made it through security and is in the Singapore Airlines lounge at Heathrow. If all goes well, she’ll be here this time tomorrow. It’s been quite a palaver with all the various visas, exceptions, tests, forms etc

Once she gets to you, she may never want to leave!

So good that you’ll be together this year.

Pleased for you and your family batfink.

Had to step away from the cycle club forum this morning. One guy posted that he was having to miss today’s race training session as he’s feeling ropey after his booster jab, and some bellend has piped up with “I know loads of people really ill after the vaccination but don’t know anyone who’s been ill with Covid”

Yes you do, you lying bellend. You and your wife both know at least one person through your involvement with the Scout district who has died of Covid. That’s the same Scout district you both chose to leave when we asked you to finally complete your mandatory training on things like health and safety and risk assessments to keep young people safe.

****.

Yes you do, you lying bellend. You and your wife both know at least one person through your involvement with the Scout district who has died of Covid. That’s the same Scout district you both chose to leave when we asked you to finally complete your mandatory training on things like health and safety and risk assessments to keep young people safe.

****.

Cxxxs will be cxxxs…

If covid has shown us one thing it’s how either stupid or selfish a proportion of the uk is … or both in many cases

I hope you called him out on that on the forum….

Where has the WHO said “the new variant is not a huge concern.”?

The WHO have literally done the opposite by declaring it a variant of concern

This is self-evident.

They’re going through the Greek alphabet. Omicron is the 15th letter. What happened to the intermediate ten? We’ve never heard of them because they’re of no concern. We’ve heard of this one because, well…

I think headlines like this are mixing the messaging for those not paying full attention – people seem to struggle with the difference between concern and panic

BBC News – Covid: Don’t panic about Omicron variant, WHO says
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59526252

nobody really wants to sit on the fence for too long.

dont panic, but be aware that if we dont do anything at all, then we might need to panic in the not too distant future, so to help mitigate that future panic, we might start to consider doing some of the things which in the future, with the benefit of hindsight, some people might say we really should have done.
dont ‘prep’ tho as folk will laugh at you, you’d be better off panicking, but dont panic as there is no need, just be prepared to panic.

plus the prepare to panic timeline seems to be shifting, which may or may not be a good thing.

The way some people portray it, the business of preparing for unknown quantities such as the impact of Omicron should be a binary state of either being entirely nonchalant or in a panic-stricken meltdown when it’s too late to do anything about it anyway. I am aware that this accurately describes government policy in the run-up to earlier lockdowns. 🙂

There are degrees of caution in between, and it is reasonable to take steps which, in retrospect, may turn out to be unnecessary.

It could be that the current vaccination coverage of the UK puts it in a decent position to deal with Omicron, unlike SA, where it is fuelling an explosion of case numbers and hospitalisations. Or we could be slightly **** by January/February. Do we wait to open the box in January to find out?

@batfink delighted your mother is on her way.

Back from a post booster perambulation of 12k with the dog. AZ first and second, followed by Moderna spikevax yesterday. So far a rash, itching, sore arm and headache. Despite citirazine and paracetamol prophylaxis. Only Grade 1 but a real result. Still, the ip to thirty fold boost in antibodies should accommodate any loss in potency with ease.

Still very little data on anything other than number of cases in a population not representative of the U.K. There is evidence of increasing interest micron SGTF, but nothing solid on the morbidity and mortality front. Nor data on neutralising sera. That’s going to come this week. I imagine it will appear here (a superb NIH resource)

https://opendata.ncats.nih.gov/variant/summary

Panic now and beat the rush…

Looks like it was just as well I went to the panto on Thursday. The ADC Theatre have announced that all showings are now cancelled as members of the cast and production team are now having to self-isolate….At one point Buttons even commented on how good her voice projection was….

I was due to get my booster on Monday but got COVID instead, now better. I’ll get the booster in a month but having had COVID does that give me a good level of protection?

Nice one @batfink
One of my riding mates spent the night in Sydney airport rushing back to QLD from a family celebration in SA. QLD shut the border to SA due to an O case and she didn’t realise until all the sensible flights from Adelaide to Brissy had sold out.
She missed the deadline to get into QLD, but through a fluke, because she spent the night in the terminal waiting for the onward flight to Brissy and didn’t leave she was allowed in. Crazy stuff, but

We’re still undecided whether to head into NSW before xmas for a camping trip once/if the borders open or avoid the risk of having to isolate on return…

We’re still undecided whether to head into NSW before xmas for a camping trip once/if the borders open or avoid the risk of having to isolate on return…

We haven’t booked anything out-of-state since all this unpleasantness began. We missed out on a holiday in Fiji right at the beginning, and are (were?) just considering re-booking – looks like that is shelved again (#firstworldproblem). Since then kept it NSW.

I think with QLD I would always just assume it could snap-shut at any moment – I wouldn’t risk it.

That’s a fair assessment. Last time we crossed the border was Christmas 2020.

“Big announcement” coming at 2pm apparently…

Panic now and beat the rush…

sell bog roll, buy panic

I was due to get my booster on Monday but got COVID instead, now better. I’ll get the booster in a month but having had COVID does that give me a good level of protection?

Yeah should do, Omicron permitting!

I’m hopeful that my family all going down with it last week means we won’t have to worry about it over xmas

but having had COVID does that give me a good level of protection

Every little helps. There is some question over whether having had Delta offers you much protection against Omicron, but a double jab and natural infection is not to be sniffed at, as it were.

There is some question over whether having had Delta offers you much protection against Omicron,

This is a worry, if I’ve got delta now and go on to get omicron b4 xmas it world be a complete nightmare

Still very early days for panic. Some indications from SAfrica are of a milder infection with lower morbidity. But this is still largely anecdotal data. It is, however, encouraging.

One thing I found interesting, is that the variant C.1.2 has been endemic (at <4%) in Africa at low levels and not outcompeted by Delta. This variant shares almost every mutation with Omicron (except E484K instead of E484A, and Omicron has a lot of extra changes), and to me suggests a source for the new strain. C.1.2 has not been identified in the U.K.

The CDC summarise what we don’t know very clearly. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/scientific-brief-omicron-variant.html . In a week I am sure much more will be known. Prudence during that week, particularly since the variant can be easily identified (like Alpha) by PCR in the U.K. (but not everywhere), is no bad thing.

If Omicron is more transmissible, does this mean its a more ‘competitive’ virus and is more likely to become the dominant strain as it is better at finding new hosts?

In theory, yes. Fitness to spread is a function of contact rate, and probability of transmission per contact. Contact rates for Delta and Omicron might not be so different. So a strain that grows faster, has a higher viral load than can be aerosolised more easily, or earlier in the infection cycle. Classic evolutionary theory says that it’s hard to maintain multiple strains simultaneously, however in practice, that is noted (see above for C.1.2), due to either reintroductions or localisation.

In the best case scenario, it is more transmissible and less virulent than Delta. But neither of those two points are truly established yet. In South Africa it took off in a University first, with little to no vaccination (25% nationally), in a younger population. In the U.K. it is growing, but one needs to see what Delta is doing in the same regions to see if it truly outcompeting. It might just be coexisting in a previously less infected group (e.g., the vaccinated).

In any event, the rate of replacement is a measure of relative fitness. Two strains close in fitness take longer to switch than a master competitor.

Regarding “outcompeting”, the variants don’t directly compete with each other, in a population of naive humans. If the R number of the old variant remains above (or about) 1 then it will continue to spread even in the presence of a new variant with a higher R number. Cross-immunity between strains could eventually drive the inferior version extinct, but there’s no reason to expect this immediately.

And of course, don’t forget that coronaviruses can combine genetics in multiple infections. There is one virus missing in this paper, but humans are but one host for this and so many other viruses. Delta replaced Alpha pretty quickly whilst Alpha was in decline. It also expanded rapidly in countries with low cases but high vaccination. A Delta variant AY.4.2 has been replacing Delta relatively slowly (compared to original Delta) in the U.K. and AY.4.3 has been expanding in Europe. It has now peaked in Germany and Austria – others will likely follow.

So theoretically Omicron could combine with Delta?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-59548694

^Rumor is that there are some more schools about to be in similar position.

I wonder if we will see an extension of the Christmas holidays like last year….

Work colleague has just had the phone call from that school, they’ll be off all week. But it’s Paisley, so could just be the Pox.

I wonder if we will see an extension of the Christmas holidays like last year….

Not unlikely. As long as we can avoid one day of mixing, followed by distance learning, like last year in England… that was like taking all the possible options, and seeking to combine the worst downsides of them all.

It’s getting closer.

My partners NHS lab has 2 off with confirmed Covid.

She had limited contact with one of them but is required to go to work until/unless she tests positive on a lateral flow.

Amazingly, they won’t let them have (direct) PCR tests even though they can do them on site. Other departments in the hospital do have this access however. Odd.

How long after exposure might we get symptoms, few days?

So theoretically Omicron could combine with Delta?

It could, but it already has many of the mutations by parallel selection. If you squeeze something it will split along the cracks. Your immune system is doing the squeezing, so the virus strains are trying to escape along the same path. If you clear the virus relatively quickly, any new strains will be so low level that you don’t spread them. It’s when you don’t that there are problems.

Some patients have harboured virus for months. These people are gyms for virus evolution. Recall that South Africa has a high HIV prevalence and C.1.2 had been there for some time. It probably acquired the same mutations as alpha whilst being squeezed.

Quite strong case growth in the SE of England now compared with the other regions. Appears to be focused on the 40-50s more than elsewhere, too. Can’t see an obvious reason, apart from lots of little hotspots on the commuter lines into south Essex and Kent.

Groundhog day, Kent leading the way into Xmas.