Surely education/information is the only solution?

Yes. Spot on. We’re trying as a practice and as a PCN, but we’re not having much success. If I look at our own stats were at about 77-78% of white British and slightly lower (71%) Pakistani/Bangladeshi and Indians fully vaccinated. Chinese around 39% (not many pts at our practice, but heavy concentrations in the city centre) and Afro-Caribbean at about 45% .  Speaking with an old boy yesterday I just got a blank “No” no ifs or buts, no considering the options, just a vehement “no” There must be a way in that we’ve not found but everything we’ve tried so far as met with limited success, but we’ll keep at it

Speaking with an old boy yesterday I just got a blank “No” no ifs or buts, no considering the options, just a vehement “no”

Well it sounds as if he felt very strongly about it, did you not ask him why no?

People who feel very strongly about something often want to share their views.

this is the top rated comment on bbc “Government to make doctor work face to face report”

Excellent, the unavailability of GPs is absolutely shocking. You practically have to beg the receptionists to even speak to a doctor let alone get an appointment, sadly some people aren’t forceful enough to fight their case and go undiagnosed.

They wonder why A&E times are through the roof, because that’s the only place you can get seen in person. GPs need to get a grip, the pandemic is over.

Pandemic is over folks, only just shy of 500 people have died of covid in the last 3 days with 45,000 reported new cases!

GPs in Australia flipped to “telehealth” appointments pretty quickly (ie: via zoom) – but you can still get in to see a Dr face to face – you just have to wear a mask, confirm no covid Symptoms etc.

The GP service here is partially privatized though (you have public GPs who you don’t pay for, and private ones who you do). We choose to go to a private one because they are on the corner of our street and you can usually get an appointment same day – we are not going every 5 minutes anyway, so the (relatively small) cost is not really an issue.

GPS here are paid per appointment (either by you directly, or by the government) – so they are motivated to see people. Rather than in the UK, where the GP funding model does the opposite of that.

@batfink

I do think there is a valid question about what happens to QLD and WA when they do eventually re-open….. that their first line of defense has been so successful that perhaps the secondary, tertiary measures aren’t in-place/tested.

Absolutely. That’s why we’re working on it now… I anticipate lots more hospital simulations, which are a pretty incredible learning mechanism. One plan here is that we’ll aim to rapid test before entry to ED and try to manage any positive cases without risking contamination. We’ve also had a couple of theatres set aside solely for ENT and COVID+ surgery. Standard stuff no doubt.

Obviously the increased vaccination rate in that time we’ve bought is some insurance.

Another thought on low uptake of First Nations peoples from listening to Radio National yesterday is that they’re often more heavily reliant on f2f communication. Healthcare workers in FNQ are saying that talking to them one-on-one about their concerns and letting them go and yarn with family and friends works. That’s not really something that happens quickly or that big advertising campaigns can replicate. I wonder if NITV have had a famous indigenous person to talk on screen with a doctor, etc? Might be a form of proxy.

I was at a meeting this evening where Marc Wadsworth spoke on Black History Month, I took the opportunity to ask him why the high vaccine hesitation among African Carribbean.

He claimed that past history of racist medical experiments on unwitting black and brown people played a part. Certainly the governments of the UK, the US, Australia, and Canada, have all in the past carried out such experiments, as this provides an example :

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2007/sep/01/india.military

It should be pointed out that although these experiments were clearly racist in nature there were also other experiments in which the unwitting subjects were white British, eg :

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/apr/21/uk.medicalscience

I guess generally non-white Brits have more reasons to mistrust though.

Edit : It should be noted that the secret experiments carried out by the British government on the wider population were at the time considered to be probably harmless. Experiments carried out on people with dark skin were not necessarily considered to be harmless.

He claimed that past history of racist medical experiments on unwitting black and brown people played a part. Certainly the governments of the UK, the US, Australia, and Canada, have all in the past carried out such experiments,

I agree that this is probably part of it – but I’m not sure it explains the size of the difference that we are seeing.

I guess time will tell – Psychologist’s/sociologists Phds for the next three decades are going to be looking at people’s responses to the pandemic.

Just had a meeting with the guy who did this (artwork and narration)… he had Polio as a youngster* so is pretty invested in getting the Indigenous community to get vaccinated!

* In keeping with @ernielynch comments above, Australian Indigenous people have solid reasons to be wary of white authority. When the artist/narrator in that video was young whiter-skinned Indigenous Australians could be taken from their families to be ‘assimilated’ with the Anglo-Europeans, so his parents pretty much hid him from the authorities and he wasn’t vaccinated. His siblings were darker so they were vaccinated.

Makes back on at my school due to high case numbers…I’m off to see where the horse has gone.

Masks back here as well, and trips cancelled, and assemblies stopping. Cases are too high in our kid’s school for that to really help now though… the horse has long since bolted. Half term soon… that might help… or might have helped if we were doing more outside schools to reduce infections.

Guess who’s the only dickhead on the train with a mask on? [ except the staff that is ]

Guess who’s the only dickhead responsible on the train with a mask on?

We’ve apparently had 8 cases at work in the kast 15 days, but no evidence of workplace transmission, still only 10-20% on site, social distancing, masks when not at desks and enough sanitiser to bathe in.

My comment a couple of weeks ago about it being too early to celebrate the dip in hospital and death numbers seems depressingly accurate. Daughter got jabbed yesterday, parents get boosters next week, roll on winter.

Going to the pub tonight but might just be a swift half sat outside still.

Masks back here as well, and trips cancelled, and assemblies stopping

Been that way in Mrs OWG’s school for three or four weeks, also no singing which has been a pain since she runs the choirs. Steady 2 or 3 new cases a day for the whole term – it’s a primary with around 300 children. Some double jabbed staff have been uncomfortably ill for quite a long time, although none have been hospitalised. My neighbour is a deputy head at a secondary school – he’s been off work with COVID for two weeks, says he’s never felt sicker in his life. His wife got away with it for a week, now she’s come down with it too – also very unwell. This is really not over.

Well it sounds as if he felt very strongly about it, did you not ask him why no?

Yes of course I did. There comes a point at which you just have to respect a pt’s wishes though. You can explain and ask them to reconsider and look at evidence, but at the end of the day: Horse, water…all that jazz.

Guess who’s the only dickhead on the train with a mask on?

This does boil my piss somewhat. Did two journeys yesterday, six hours of hard cycling between, yet managed to still be one of only a tiny minority of people respecting Northern Rail’s polite request to continue wearing face coverings to protect other passengers and their staff.

I know it’s not compulsory, but how can anyone look train staff in the eye after showing them they basically don’t give a shit about the safety of the conditions they have to work in?

British common sense and values = ‘Your health (and my own) is worth less than the mild inconvenience and discomfort of wearing a small piece of cloth over my face’.

Mask compliance on TfW trains over last weekend was awful despite being law, also being run to ridiculous capacity levels with strangers standing centimetres away from each other near the doors, instead of adding a fourth carriage.

I caught something on the outward leg of my journey that started to present symptoms ~48 hours later, two negative LFTs on Tues and Thurs suggests it’s a cold, I’ve passed it on to family I was staying with and my better half since coming back home. Still struggling to wake by 0900 and when I do feeling really groggy, could sleep all day. Most exercise I’ve done since coming home on Monday evening is walking between rooms, need to do something more today to decide if I’m fit to return to work tomorrow.

Now on another train. Not in Calderdale. Everyone wearing masks. Every single person. Quite a contrast.

An update on the positive LFT, negative PCR situation…

So it looks like the UKHSA is now recommending isolation for LFD positives even if PCR negative. This change has come too late for many, but please do isolate with a positive LFD, as the probability of infection at current prevalence rates is very high. Even if PCR -ve. https://t.co/S42nrrttlS

— Deepti Gurdasani (@dgurdasani1) October 15, 2021

Basically, we’re now officially doing what Edukator (and others perhaps) suggested… a positive LFT overrules a negative PCR.

Lab in Wolverhampton may have issued up to 43,000 incorrect PCR negatives in recent weeks and test site in Berkshire asking anyone who got a negative PCR test recently to get another test.

If you add those 43,000 tests onto the current official figures then we’re at the beginning of the next wave. Just as we go into the winter flu season, perfect timing.

1 in 60 had COVID last week – ONS

Looks like the herd immunity plan is back with a vengeance.

What’s the latest on the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine? I heard that it’s a lot more effective than was first thought, is that true or have I misunderstood?

Masks were back on in school Friday after a face to face parents evening Thursday, oh and visitors are banned, unless it’s parents and kids coming for open morning visits to my lesson Friday! You couldn’t make it up. All set against a backdrop of the local testing centre being on national news for giving false negatives!!

I’ve currently got COVID.
Caught it off my sister’s family, her son caught it at primary school in Fife. Supposedly almost all of his class have it.
Sister and her husband have it relatively bad – up all night, itchy skin, head colds etc

I seem to have a light dose, just seems like a bit of a stuffy nose when I’m sleeping but clears up during the day.

Could be because a low initial infection – I was outside the whole time I was there as my dad and I were building a patio lean-to thing for them. Only went in for lunch… My dad didn’t catch it either.

So, that was the Saturday. I was in a van with my pal on the Monday and another pal Tuesday morning, just before I found out my sister etc had it later on the Tuesday. Neither of those guys caught it from me and my girlfriend’s PCR came back negative and so have her LFTs we’ve been doing (I’m blowing positive there!). So seems I’m not too infectious?

Anyway, girlfriend and I are self-isolating til the end of this week.

FWIW everyone mentioned (other than my nephew) is double jabbed. Glad I got mine as seems I’m one of the lucky ones as far as catching this goes.

Hope you and everyone else shake it off quickly.

Still not sure how I’m dodging this bullet. The local wave from schools seems to have subsided, though obviously still a lot of it about.

This thread seems to answer questions I’ve been pondering.

NEW: there’s been a lot of chatter about why cases, hospitalisations and deaths are much higher in the UK than elsewhere in Western Europe.

I think a lot of the commentary has been overly simplistic, politicised and at-times flat-out wrong.

Let’s see if we can do better:

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) October 17, 2021

That is a very good thread.

I’ve been away from this thread for a while but dipping in now and again.

Seems to me like the latest stats say that prevalence is as high as ever – I know the more you test the more you find, but numbers saying 1/60 levels in the community at present. Deaths are high – 100+ per day is getting on for 1000 a week and 50K a year particularly as we aren’t in the indoor season which is non-negligible, but vaccines are clearly playing a part.

That’s all old news.

What’s interesting to me, and the point of the post, is that vaccines don’t seem to be having a marked affect on the case rates, just on the severity and outcome. So using vaxxed or not as a qualifier to allow or prevent people from going about their lives – is it worthwhile?

Just let the unvaxxed take on whatever risk it entails, it’s predominantly their problem. We can advise against, just as we can advise against smoking or eating too much salt, but in the end it’s a choice. And as a civilised nation we’ll pick up the pieces when it goes wrong (risk being if it goes too far wrong then everyone pays as a result of overcrowded hospitals, etc.)

is that vaccines don’t seem to be having a marked affect on the case rates

How do you come to that conclusion?

it’s predominantly their problem

Even those who haven’t yet been offered vaccination (teens), or can not yet be vaccinated? There are several non-vaccination preventives and treatments getting though trails now for those who can’t be vaccinated, is it not for all of us (not just them) to try and reduce their chance of infection before those are available to them?

That is an interesting and clear thread on Twitter, thank you @scotroutes.

Just let the unvaxxed take on whatever risk it entails, it’s predominantly their problem.

And I remind you that there are a minority for whom vaccination doesn’t work, can’t have it, has reduced effect or wanes much quicker. Mrs_oab gets round 3 CV19 and winter Flu jabs this Sunday. The initial prevention is less and waning effect is much more rapid.  She needs round 4,5,6,7,8 etc every month or so – and even then it is a reduced benefit.

Remember the vulnerable still – and not lump in with the ‘oh well, shit happens. back to life’ policy that our UK government seem keen to move forward with.

is that vaccines don’t seem to be having a marked affect on the case rates, just on the severity and outcome.

Plenty of evidence that’s just not so. In France 80% of positive tests are non-vaccinated and yet only 25% of the population is not “fully vaccinated”. The French figures for the numbers of fully vaccinated don’t correspond to international numbers for double vaccinated because a positve PCR followed by one vaccination is considered fully vaccinated.

is that vaccines don’t seem to be having a marked affect on the case rates

How do you come to that conclusion?

because substantial proportion of the population is now vaccinated and yet we have 1/60 prevalence.

Of course, mask wearing is down, mixing in schools and public places is up and so on, so it’s hard to unpick completely but it certainly isn’t a magic bullet for transmission, but a great success for outcomes.

Even those who haven’t yet been offered vaccination (teen), or can not yet be vaccinated?

Those that can’t be vaccinated – yes, it’s a problem but are vaccines really preventing the transmission to them? Teens – are now being offered the vaccines and/or are not at major risk. IDK the real answer but the balance between society protecting the more vulnerable and society not being able to get on with life to do this is tricky. And i have 2 parents both in that category and neither of them want life to stop because they are restricted.

I still don’t get why mask wearing, proven to reduce spread, is not compulsory though.

It’s a discussion point. IDK the answers but I’m asking questions.

@ed – that’s interesting. In the UK it was reported by ICL as 3x lower likelihood of getting infected when double vaxxed compared to unvaxxed. A difference but not massive.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/227713/coronavirus-infections-three-times-lower-double/

it certainly isn’t a magic bullet for transmission

Very much true, especially with a big enough section of society unvaccinated. Which is why so few countries are acting as if it is. That does not mean the same thing as “vaccines don’t seem to be having a marked affect on the case rates”, which is simply not true. Despite a more transmittable variant, growth in cases is much slower than it has been in past waves… it’s just that we’ve been doing nothing much beyond vaccinations to try and reduce cases for a long period of time, because we think the NHS can cope, and, well, the chosen priorities of our politicians (furlough and the UC uplift ending, for example, when in other countries support is continuing through the winter) have been accepted by the media and the public who don’t seem to look much beyond our own borders at what is possible anymore.

3 x lower strikes me as pretty good. Another figures I’ve seen on the TV is that it’s Pfizer/Moderna that gets the 80% figure but AZ is somewhat lower around 60%. AZ wasn’t used much here but widely used in the UK.

It’s also not just ‘the unvaxed problem’. Those that are ill and can’t work cause labour/supply chain issues and of course stretch our already critical NHS.

This is an area where it feels we need more from central government, planning for how the NHS will change as imv it’s becoming more and more evident that c-19 will be a considerable burden for many years.

Planning? This is a government that only knows how to break things. 🙄

I suppose they might have plans for the NHS – how to sell the lucrative bits off to their mates.

Well Freester JR tested positive at the weekend.

We had almost daily letters last week from school (England) saying he was likely a ‘close contact’. Apparently there were 10 kids off in his class including the lad he sat next to. Flow testing more regularly we decided to take him for a PCR just to be safe even though he had no symptoms whatsoever.

Friday flow test negative. Sat AM PCR got returned positive Sunday (after we had taken him to indoor cricket training and a swimming fund raising event).

Letter from school today to say 9 positive PCRs and 21 positive flow tests awaiting PCR over the weekend. All in time for the half term ‘circuit breaker’. Herd immunity targets well on there way to being achieved?

Mrs F and myself go get PCRs immediately yesterday. He’s got to come in the car as we can’t leave him at home.

Tests returned negative but it’s hard not to be in contact with a 10 yr old in the same house.

My employers policy is if the test is clear you will be required back in the office (even though we can work from home our company owner (SME – 70 people) wants people in 80% of time). So I could have caught it by now but they are happy for me to go in. Okaaaaaaaay. For my own piece of mind all I can do is flow test daily for the next few days and keep a close eye for any symptoms. I don’t want to give it to any of my colleagues I know a few are planning to get away for a few days over half term. I don’t want to mess that up for them. Or transmit an infection that could cause worse to another colleagues home and / or family.

Apologies for the brain dump.

Looking at our world in data it’s very clear where our case numbers are going. 😬

Freester, discuss with your line manager and be open with your colleagues would be my advice.

Luckily it is only us proles who catch it.
I tested a couple who had been pinged on Saturday.
They said it was because they were on a plane back from Portugal but a passenger had tested positive. They were sure they were OK because they were “right at the front of the plane in business class”.
Bless.