The UK is different, we don’t need masks in schools, we’re stronger. Or some such schools are safe misdirection bullshit.

Masks could slow down herd immunity.

^^ Lord.

Herd Immunity stopped being a possible outcome with Delta at the latest, more a case of how well protected the population is against serious illness/death.

Masks are still being used in schools in Scotland. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Masks could slow down herd immunity.

Someone didn’t get the latest memo. The current Great Barrington line is to aim for “endemicity”, as though endemic viruses are somehow less harmful. Still the same plan, that we all catch it, and if you’re unlucky enough to die or suffer long term damage, well, just think of how much happier the nightclub owners are now

The current Great Barrington line

What happened to ‘The pandemic is basically over’ from November 2020?

Apparently “we all make mistakes”. Which is true, but when all your mistakes are in the same direction …

Having an interesting conversation about mandatory workplace vaccination – Delta Airlines is in the news.

Is there any evidence that vaccination lowers risk of transmission with Delta?

Is there any evidence that vaccination lowers risk of transmission with Delta?

I have nothing definitive to add here, but I’m pretty sure that some of the statements that I’ve read over the last few months have been along the lines that ‘vaccinated, infected individuals have not been been shown to transmit the virus any less than unvaccinated infected individuals’. However, we’re pretty sure that vaccination does reduce (though not remove) the chances of becoming infected, right?

So if your workforce is all vaccinated, then (unless their status makes them adopt more risky behaviour) the proportion of them who are infected at a given point of time is likely to be lower than if there were a load of unvaccinated people amongst them. Therefore they’re overall likely to be less spreadlicious.

This logic could of course fall down if being vaccinated makes you only slightly less likely to catch it, but much less likely to notice it… in which case you might actually me *more* spready since you’re unlikely to be hiding away at home…

That pretty much sums up the conversation we have just had. Human behavioural science colliding with medicine.

I’m aware of the difficulties comparing countries because of the differeing social attitudes and habits and measures in place. That said check out the countries with very high levels of vaccination and the graphs of infection rates. Portugual has a very high level of vaccination and an impressive decline in transmission. Within France the departments with the highest levels of vaccination generally have lower levels of incidence – they are also the departments where mask wearing etc. are most respected IME.

A TV programme here resumed the factors:

Vaccinated people with symptomatic covid shed similar levels of virus during the symptomatic phase.
The symptomatic phase in the vaccinated is however shorter.
Vaccination reduces that chances of catching Covid even with Delta so you have fewer Covid carriers around
Mask wearing combined with ventilation much reduces transmission

When a high level of vaccination is combined with the most effective and least economically damaging measures then Covid transmission declines, even the Delta variant. So far so good for Portugual, Spain, Italy, France, Denmark… .

Are there any studies measuring and showing this as opposed to anecdotal evidence?

There must be, they were quoting them. The study about virus shedding was American and the chances of catching Covid gouvenement stats. The regional variations for France are published every day. Go on then I’ll look for you:

The maps (carte) for regional vaccination rates and incidence are in here (click on “carte” then hover over the department for the numbers):

https://www.gouvernement.fr/info-coronavirus/carte-et-donnees

The American studies on transmission of Delta and viral load are refered to here:

https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/entry/la-guerre-a-change-lagence-de-sante-americaine-de-plus-en-plus-inquiete-concernant-delta_fr_6103ba41e4b0048f361c2c6b

The Portugal data is here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/portugal/

I think the Texas mask wearing results are in a link on th eprevious page, if not, here:

https://eu.statesman.com/story/news/2021/09/27/central-texas-schools-mask-mandates-report-fewer-covid-19-cases/5827873001/

Vaccins still 60% effective against catching Delta here:

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/vaccin/covid-19-les-vaccins-moins-efficaces-face-au-variant-delta_4762299.html

Thanks. I’m very pro vaccine – just trying to work out how we navigate the next phase.

Recent ONS data. Lots of confounders,but definitely “real world”
https://t.co/ZboXEpyNBt?amp=1

When a high level of vaccination is combined with the most effective and least economically damaging measures then Covid transmission declines, even the Delta variant.

This. This. This.

At this stage of the pandemic, we know what to do. We just chose not to. Or rather our government does.

Anyway, my kid is still at home. Blood sugars running super high sadly. They are as comfy as possible in their room, with high temporary basel rate being used to try and keep ketones normal. You can hear them coughing from any room in the house though, which isn’t easy to listen to.

Lots of confounders

An individual’s behaviour means little in terms of protecting that individual. We can protect other people with our societal behaviour.

All the best for keeping things stable and recovery and rest of household being ok Kelvin.

Kelvin I really do hope things take a turn for the better very soon. Such a worrying time for you.

I don’t feel as polite as you about the utter selfishness of most of the British public when it comes to thinking of others.
It is not difficult to open a window or two for ventilation (put on an extra sweater), or to wear a mask.

I have to say in some of the more rural small towns and villages there is much more consideration.

@kelvin as the Dad of a recently diagnosed Type 1 boy, this really strikes a chord. I hope your lad kicks it’s a*se and is up and about soon. I feel fortunate mine got offered the vaccine recently and he was all for it. He’s <12. As @Bunnyhop says, it does rather feel it’s all about ‘me’ than ‘us’. See also petrol stations….

Thanks for the thoughts people. Currently a very nasty cough, but still at home. Hopefully they can ride it out here. CGMs really come into their own during illness, so glad the NHS came through with those for kids in the end.

I feel fortunate mine got offered the vaccine recently and he was all for it.

Yeah, we got the GP letter inviting us to book a jab on Saturday (we had been chasing them since the announcement). Timing. If it wasn’t possible to vaccinate these kids (and ideally their classmates) in the summer, the return to school procedures should have taken that into that account, in my opinion. Still fuming about the predictability of it all right now, but trying to shift my focus elsewhere.

@slowpuncheur , feel free to message me about anything childhood diabetes related.

Wishing your family and especially the kids all the best Kelvin, I hope all goes well.

Well, after 3 days waiting for the PCR test school were demanding to come back, it’s negative, so daughters back to school tomorrow.

Of the 5 in their group with coughs and cold symptoms the school wanted testing, only one is positive.

3 days, that’s poor. Was spot on 24 hours here for our tests.

Your other point doesn’t surprise me, there are some awful coughs and colds going around right now. I currently have an adult in one room stuck down with an evil cold and testing negative, and a teen isolating in another room with Covid… keeping them apart and trying not to be the bridge between them. The Covid cough isn’t like anything I’ve heard before though… sounds like someone several times their size coughing… very very deep. Not like a cough connected to a cold.

But many kids that ours shares classes with have tested positive. They’ve got a group chat thing going on to not feel so isolated with it. It’s not just colds keeping people off and being mistake for possible Covid.

Guardian reporting on a new drug trial from Merck for a Covid pill. out of 800 patients with mild/moderate symptoms, 50% reduction in hospitalisations and no deaths in the drug arm of the trial compared to 8 in the placebo.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/01/covid-antiviral-pill-halves-hospitalisations-and-deaths-maker-says

Yes molnupiravir could be a game-changing treatment. Antivirals have had a poor track record in influenza because they have to be given very early – it’s why you had Tamiflu in your cupboard in 2009. This could be the same – take it early and it can offset symptoms and protect. However it’s not all good news. The drug works by inserting random mutations in the RNA as it is assembled and that causes a halt to construction of virus – it also causes assembly of mutated virus too (it’s a BIG numbers game in viral replication). It may also interfere with DNA replication, so might be used for short treatments only.]

Interesting editorial here on the mechanism of action and possibility of emergence of new mutations https://www.nature.com/articles/s41594-021-00657-8

Remdesivir interferes with the RNA assembly mechanism too by blocking an enzyme called polymerase. This stops production like a broken tooth in a zip. Molnupiravir allows reading but produces something that is normally not functional to code for full protein.

Pfizer have another promising candidate too as do Roche/Atea.

Covid: One in 20 secondary-age children infected in England

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58763845

It can be nasty as well. Currently extremely pissed off with this country, and they way we’ve been gaslighted into accepting a policy of letting the virus spread freely in schools, and the community more generally, in advance of vaccinations.

In the last few days I’ve been in a bus, a train, a coffee shop, a restaurant and now a cinema.

Not one single person other than my family has worn a mask in any setting.

I’m triple jabbed & caught Covid from my kids 5 weeks ago, so currently both as safe & unlikely to transmit, as I’ll ever be.

Coming into winter I’m a little concerned we think it’s all over – is it?

Dropping my lad off at uni today. Think we were the only people wearing masks in Cambridge services on the A14, less than 50% in shops and cafes when we had a mooch around.

Harsh as it sounds, this is as good as it will get I think. I’ll happily still do hands, face, space indoors, but I’m increasingly noticing I’m in the minority.

Coming into winter I’m a little concerned we think it’s all over – is it?

A rhetorical question? We are losing 100 people a day. And choosing to ignore the avoidable health burden we are building up for ourselves.

I know we’re avoiding international comparisons… but New Zealand have had 27 deaths, in total. They are cracking on with vaccinations, using only the most effective vaccine, which should hopefully mean they will avoid the huge death rate we’re experiencing here (not just kicking it down the road, as many suggested in the past). Obviously there’s a whole world of outcomes between those two, and worse ones still that we’ve avoided through our past actions and the vaccine rollout, but why are we, at this late stage, shrugging off the deaths? Look at comparable countries, all but the USA have much lower death rates at the moment then us, and are acting to reduce infections to keep it that way. Why are we so special that a bit of mask wearing and ventilation isn’t worth the bother?

And the answer is
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-never-mind-cancer-b1931147.html

Used a bus last week for the first time in nearly 18 months,maybe 10 passengers and all wearing a mask,this was in North Wales,mask wearing in supermarkets etc was about the same has my bit of Leeds at around 60%, oddly it seems that a lot of the people not wearing masks are either young or old/a bit portly

I mainly wear a mask now to wind up the anti vaxxers. Any health benefits are just a bonus.

The general perception seems to be it’s all fine now and I’ve heard a few people state they feel awkward wearing a mask if no one else is. In shops near me if you wear a mask then you are in the small minority. Same on the tram. I’m carrying on wearing one as futile it may be.

Still masking here in Scotland (at least anywhere I’ve been). However, looking at the infection rate figures across the UK, I’m becoming less convinced that they make any difference. We had a massive spike in infections a month or so after the schools went back and most of the restrictions were removed. That doesn’t seem to have been matched in England, even though the schools have now been back about that long. Of course there could be other factors at play; one suggestion is that the virus simply had more “targets” in Scotland as previous infection rates had been lower. That might also explain why the spike declined so rapidly.

We were booked into see Craig Charles that week in July that things opened up. The experts (government and on here) were predicting a massive spike so we chose not to go. Last weekend we had tickets again for the Wardrobe in Leeds, this time we went.

We were a bit shellshocked when we got off a nice train into Leeds station at 8pm on a Saturday night. The station and town were packed with pissed up, oblivious, happy people of all ages. It seems that for lots of folks covid is well and truly over.

If this scene has been going for weeks across the country, plus the kids all back in education and we still haven’t witnessed a massive spike, can we dare to be a little hopeful?

Only 7 premiership clubs have over 50% of players vaccinated. Incredible how these teams have been allowed to carry on right through this shitshow, no bubbles or nothing.

we still haven’t witnessed a massive spike

– 30,000 new cases a day

– 800 hospital admissions a day

– 100 deaths a day

– No figures for poor health outcomes

Those are all people.

It’s not a “spike” only because it’s already high, and staying high.

My WhatsApp activity is nothing but parents who are looking after their kids (and themselves) reassuring each other, especially about that cough in kids that sounds like it’s coming from an adult 3 times their size.