• This topic has 33,026 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 6 hours ago by kelvin.
Viewing 40 posts - 32,241 through 32,280 (of 33,027 total)
  • The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.
  • Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    make people be slightly more careful

    That’s not much use with this virus, sadly.

    Track and trace only really works as a concept with very low infection numbers

    True. It also doesn’t work if close contacts of people known to be infectious don’t isolate, and that’s more likely to happen the more cases there are (and if people aren’t supported ot compelled by law to isolate, as you say).

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    Delta strain appears to be associated with a higher risk of hospitalisation and death.

    There is no evolutionary pressure for this virus to become less deadly. It can already be spread easily even by those that go onto die with it. The more transmissible it becomes, the truer that becomes. But we have vaccines (and not only in their current forms, many now in use can very easily be updated in future) to reduce deaths. Of course dumb luck might also deliver a new variant that is both more transmissible and less deadly, but planning based on the assumption that isn’t coming anytime soon is the path most countries are taking (including ourselves).

    Premier Icon theotherjonv
    Full Member

    aye but that sounds suspiciously like the virus has some kinda intelligence, knows what it wants to do and has a goal, rather than just random mutations of trial and error.

    No, just that natural selection will eventually mean that the mutations with the best outcomes will prevail.

    Whether we can wait for the contest to play out in the meantime, while it trials random transmissible AND deadly but ultimately less beneficial to its overall goal versions is another question.

    Premier Icon Del
    Full Member

    The app was doing the job it was designed to do. Those pushing the ‘pingdemic’ message must be very pleased with themselves. It’s put the burden of responsibility on the individual and shifted it away from employers. If people delete the app there’s no question. Whereas if I get pinged by the app, tell my boss, and he suggests i continue working the responsibility is on him if one or more of my workmates goes down with it as a result.

    Premier Icon joepud
    Full Member

    The app was doing the job it was designed to do. Those pushing the ‘pingdemic’ message must be very pleased with themselves. It’s put the burden of responsibility on the individual and shifted it away from employers. If people delete the app there’s no question. Whereas if I get pinged by the app, tell my boss, and he suggests i continue working the responsibility is on him if one or more of my workmates goes down with it as a result.

    Granted the whole “pingdemic” was something some jurno came up with but as with all machine learning over time it needs to be tweaked to become optimal. I think I read it was saying 2k additional people a day were being told to isolate despite not needing to. My wife is currently isolating despite taking 4 lateral flows and a pcr all of which are negative, so clearly she doesn’t have covid but it still required to isolate. As we all know the rules are stupid. Further more shes NHS so can theoretically go to work (psychologist so can do work via zoom) but so can be out all day seeing loads of people but then isnt allowed to go to dinner with friends or me. its mental.

    Premier Icon yourguitarhero
    Free Member

    Seaosamh, there isn’t an intelligence to it.

    If a mutation is more infectious, it infects more people and there are more versions of it out there, infecting more people.
    If the mutation is less infectious than another mutation then it infects less people than the other one.
    Play this out over time and you end up with a more infectious version.

    No intelligence to it as the mutations are random. Just that some mutations are more beneficial to it.

    Premier Icon dannyh
    Full Member

    No intelligence to it as the mutations are random. Just that some mutations are more beneficial to it.

    This. Very much this.

    Think about what a virus does. A few particles (relatively) get inside your body’s cells. They then hijack those cells and turn them haywire, making them into, effectively, dedicated factories for the construction of thousands(?) millions(?) of copies of the virus. Before bursting due to the effort. This cell destruction is part of what causes inflammation associated with having a virus. The rest of it and the rest of feeling shit is your body trying to play catch up and mobilising energy to initiate and build an immune response – but I digress. Think about the numbers here:

    Let’s just say a hijacked cell can be forced to make 1000 copies of a virus before it is destroyed. Let’s just say an individual gets an exposure of 1000 particles from someone else and 1% of those go on to infect a cell. So 10 infected cells produce 10000 virus particles. Let’s pretend that that is ‘it’ (it obviously isn’t as copies within a person can go on to infect other cells – in a race against time versus the immune system). But even with my silly example, each person infected multiplies the number of virus particles by 10.

    Covid also keeps you on your feet and able to spread it by having a long incubation period.

    But ignore all of that. Let us just consider the sheer amount of replications that are going on. Each one prone to a tiny chance of random mutation. Even if only 1% of these confer a selective advantage (greater transmissibility, say) they are highly likely to increase their proportion of the total population. You can bet that a variant that COULD be twice as lethal has occurred in someone by now, but maybe that particle wasn’t transmitted or maybe the mutation had a secondary effect that made the particle unviable.

    As noted above, although ‘successful’ diseases don’t tend to kill their host (thus taking the probability of transmission down), covid has a long asymptomatic infectious period, so the selective pressure to be non-lethal is lower.

    Compare this with something like anthrax. Anthrax is endemic in some parts of Africa in cattle. Its transmissibility is poor (thankfully). Its lethality is incredibly high and fast (which further inhibits transmission). So it kills those it infects quickly, with little (comparatively) transmission. Guess which disease was initially chosen by virtually every WMD establishment as a potential weapon. Yep, anthrax.

    For me, the vexed issue (and the one I believe the UK is getting very wrong) is increasing the amount of virus in circulation whilst rolling out selective pressures on transmissibility via vaccines. If non-lethality is a secondary ‘advantage’ to thr virus, I believe we could stand accused of generating and harbouring the next variant wave. A variant wave that will impinge on the effectiveness of the vaccines that the rest of the world are also trying to get ‘out there’.

    Our early access to vaccines should have conferred some responsibility onto us to keep some more restrictive measures in place. Not use it as an opportunity to steal an economic march on our self-created ‘enemies’ in a flurry of nationalist-populist posturing.

    Premier Icon neilnevill
    Free Member

    So with numbers dropping still and now hospitalisations also, it seems to me the end of the school term is the big big driver. What position will we be in come the new academic year? What should the government be found now to put us in a good position/better position in 5 weeks? The messaging had been vaccinate our way out of this, 5 weeks from now we are found to have double jabbed pretty much everyone that will roll up their sleeve. Will that be enough or should/could we do more? A strong messaging on the simple measures like hands, face, space and fresh air in the lead up to the school return and colder weather maybe…. Or will it just not wash anymore?

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    Vaccinate teens ASAP. Use less economically damaging measures (mandating masks on public transport and in shops) to get infections as low as possible before the return to school/college. Take full advantage of the summer… don’t wait ’till October to work out what needed to happen before September.

    Premier Icon Flaperon
    Free Member

    I think that’s a great idea. The only slight drawback is that the country is governed by a bunch of reactionary ****-wits.

    Premier Icon grahamt1980
    Full Member

    Dannyh
    Anthrax has been selected for bioweapons research for a number of reasons, a big one is also around denial of territory and the fact that it doesn’t die and can be weaponised relatively easily without a huge reduction in viability.
    Comparing that with coronviruses isn’t really appropriate, if we had airborne haemorrhagic fevers a the current pandemic it would be a little more interesting

    Premier Icon Klunk
    Free Member

    Vaccinate teens ASAP.

    can’t haven’t got enough pfizer jabs.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    That’s what we hear. So plan for when we do, and tell us (parents especially) what that plan is. Don’t we have 60 million more Pfizer jabs due this year?

    Premier Icon Klunk
    Free Member

    IIRC 20 million due mid september, more later

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    So…

    1) tell us if teens will be allowed the vaccine once we have the stocks
    2) act to reduce infections in the meantime, especially on return to classrooms

    Premier Icon dannyh
    Full Member

    Comparing that with coronviruses isn’t really appropriate, if we had airborne haemorrhagic fevers a the current pandemic it would be a little more interesting

    I was only comparing it as an extreme opposite (low transmissibility, high lethality). And yes, anthrax stays dormant in soil as spores for a very long time. Hence the non existence of Gruinard Island for 60 odd years – at least as far as maps were concerned.

    Premier Icon dannyh
    Full Member

    Vaccinate teens ASAP. Use less economically damaging measures (mandating masks on public transport and in shops) to get infections as low as possible before the return to school/college. Take full advantage of the summer… don’t wait ’till October to work out what needed to happen before September.

    100%

    I really wish this bunch of liars in government had been honest. The idea was to get the virus circulating before the end of the school term, in summer to help with symptoms, and whilst there was spare capacity in the NHS. They are actively going for some herd immunity in lieu of younger people being vaccinated sooner. Herd immunity is now such a toxic term that it cannot be uttered.

    My worry (as above) is that we are combining high infection rates (and higher chance of creating a new variant) whilst rolling out a selective pressure to favour a new variant with greater transmissibility.

    Premier Icon Edukator
    Free Member

    whilst rolling out a selective pressure to favour a new variant with greater transmissibility.

    Or are we?

    Read all the contribution over the last two pages again. By “selective” pressure I assume you mean vaccination. So you really need to be worried about vaccine avoidance rather than transmisibility. A trend towards increased transmissibilty will happen with or without vaccination and you can argue that with fewer cases due to vaccination the risk of mutation is lower.

    Edit: in the good news category we have current vaccine protection. Two French ITU docs on news reports this evening with the same to report – numbers admitted rising fast, number of vaccinated admitted, zero.

    Premier Icon batfink
    Full Member

    Sigh…. 233 new cases in NSW today

    Two deaths: a woman in her 80s, and a bloke in his 20s which is a bit of a shock – went downhill very rapidly by all accounts.

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    Sorry to hear that batfink, going to be an uphill struggle over there.

    BBC article this morning is suggesting our relaxation in England was a lucky/well planned guess, but more caution still needed with autumn approaching. Though he has always been on message in the last few months.

    BBC News – Covid cases and hospital admissions down – is it over?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58078900

    Premier Icon loum
    Free Member

    We were told case numbers are irrelevant now: it’s all about reducing deaths.

    Deaths are rising. 123 yesterday. Highest since march.

    Conveniently forgotten.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    Deaths will also be falling later this month. It’s what happens a few weeks into the next academic year that will tell us where we are (if we’re still mass testing students… otherwise we won’t know for a further few weeks).

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    The switchero begins…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58080232

    UK experts are set to recommend all 16 and 17-year-olds should be offered a Covid vaccine, the BBC has been told.

    The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation stopped short of making the move last month, saying it was still assessing the benefits and risks.

    About 1.4 million teenagers will be included in the new rollout but it is not known when the jabs will start.

    Premier Icon martinhutch
    Full Member

    can’t haven’t got enough pfizer jabs.

    Unfortunately, lack of Pfizer right now means that any initiative to jab the teens would bump into the need to booster the oldies, which has to be a priority, given the risk to this group with potentially waning immunity.

    Feels like we’re riding the knife edge again in terms of keeping on top of it into the autumn.

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    Yesterday was the weekend catch up for deaths, plus deaths lag a week or two behind hospitalisation, so may not have peaked yet.
    We need to see where the average deaths go in the next week or two.

    Whilst I despise the government’s poor handling of this and the huge numbers of unnecessary deaths it has caused, the pragmatist in me has to accept that if deaths are down to the levels we may see from flu, then that is probably as good as it will get.

    Edit: yes, it’s how things pan out as schools and businesses return in the autumn that will be the true test. Let’s see where we are by mid October. But as the experts have said all along, it won’t go away, there will still be deaths.

    Premier Icon loum
    Free Member

    “Acceptable deaths.
    Just like flu.”

    This year’s “Eat out to help out.”

    Premier Icon joepud
    Full Member

    “Acceptable deaths.
    Just like flu.”

    This year’s “Eat out to help out.”

    I totally get the flippant comment and obvs its not nice for the family when someone dies, but we do sorta have to get to a point where we live with this. We can’t have a state of rolling lockdowns its here to stay just gotta find a way to live with it minimising the risks.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    No one wants more lockdowns. We have the means to “minimise the risk” already in the UK… it’s just that we’ve thrown away the basic physical measures (I’m the only person on this train wearing a mask apart from the staff) before we have finished vaccinating enough people.

    Premier Icon loum
    Free Member

    The winter lockdown was a result of the summer policy.
    About six months for that to come home to roost.
    About enough time to distract sight of “cause and effect”.

    Repeat, and blame the next new variant.

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    The winter lockdown was a result of the summer policy.
    About six months for that to come home to roost.

    We didn’t have the vaccine last winter. Unless there’s a vaccine resistant and/or more severe variant this winter, it “should” go a lot better, and “shouldn’t” need such strict restrictions.

    But up to 20,000 people die of the flu in a bad winter, despite vaccination. Yes, the government has taken cavalier risks at times, and I’ll be remaining cautious with masks, hygiene and distancing where I can, but at some point we’ll all have to pull up our big boy/girl pants and get used to the idea that we now have a 5th(?) coronavirus to live with.

    Premier Icon Nobeerinthefridge
    Free Member

    No one wants more lockdowns. We have the means to “minimise the risk” already in the UK… it’s just that we’ve thrown away the basic physical measures (I’m the only person on this train wearing a mask apart from the staff) before we have finished vaccinating enough people

    By UK you mean England, I can’t speak for Wales or NI, but that’s definitely not the case up here.

    Premier Icon Larry_Lamb
    Free Member

    but at some point we’ll all have to pull up our big boy/girl pants and get used to the idea that we now have a 5th(?) coronavirus to live with.

    How dare you suggest such a thing, we should have masks surgically stitched to our faces, hand sanitizer dispensers for hands and remain 100m from anyone else at all times till this virus disappears or everyone and their dog is vaccinated 73 times.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    Er… no one said any physical measures should be maintained forever. But we’ve dropped even the easy stuff (in England) before completing the first vaccine rollout. And apparently that’s paused due to not having the Pfizer supplies that are being used in neighbouring countries… but ssshh… don’t mention that… just dismiss anyone asking for any short term mitigation here as wanting eternal lockdown and mask wearing mandated forever.

    Premier Icon GlennQuagmire
    Free Member

    and remain 100m from anyone else

    I think you’ll find the official guidance is 2 Alsatians.

    Premier Icon dannyh
    Full Member

    How dare you suggest such a thing, we should have masks surgically stitched to our faces, hand sanitizer dispensers for hands and remain 100m from anyone else at all times till this virus disappears or everyone and their dog is vaccinated 73 times.

    Hang ’em. Flog ’em. It’s just the flu. I didn’t get where I am by being a bedwetter. Real men don’t wear masks. Real men don’t eat quiche. Did I mention that I’m a real man? Just in case anyone was wondering…errr…I’m a real man. Errr…. I can do 1000 pressups, you know….err…..one-handed….with a 60lb pack on my back.

    Yawn.

    Premier Icon Larry_Lamb
    Free Member

    That was far too easy.

    Premier Icon somafunk
    Full Member

    Yay!, I must be down “wiv da kids” as I’m getting my second vaccine dose t’morn, had AZ back in Feb which turned me inside out and left me with issues for weeks due to my immune response being a dick so its been decided by my MS consultant/vaccine docs that im ready for round two but this time im getting the Pfizer vaccine, hope it’s all plain sailing with this one.

    Premier Icon stcolin
    Free Member

    Unlocking now starting to show in the case numbers, just starting to rise again.

    Spoke to the receptionist at my work last week when visiting, and her daughter caught COVID on holiday (assumed). She had been working in the UAE as a teacher where they only have the Chinese vaccine on offer. She didn’t want it because of fertility concerns, as was the opinion of most of her friends in the UK no matter what the vaccine. Based on what is being shared on social media. It seems that some young folk might be tough nuts to crack.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    Good luck somafunk.

    Premier Icon soobalias
    Free Member

    fingers crossed Somafunk

Viewing 40 posts - 32,241 through 32,280 (of 33,027 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.