Friends working with the WHO at Imperial College on Modelling of the virus.

The change in criteria would make sense though, wouldn’t it? If you’re a carrier, but with no symptoms (cough, sneezing, runny nose) your likelihood of passing the virus on (fluid transmission) is substantially reduced. So long as you’re quarantined for a period…

As a model, presumably it’s making a lot of optimistic assumptions about under-reporting and the period during which patients are capable of transmitting the virus, with or without symptoms (and pre and post illness).

I’m not sure there’s any clarity over asymptomatic transmission.

Have your friends published anything yet? Would like to take a look. It is presumably a happy upswing from the Imperial/MRC report yesterday.

UPDATE: #coronavirus #2019nCoV Severity

➡️Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1%
➡️Estimated CFR for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5%
➡️Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18%

🔰https://t.co/7A77NXZ3iw pic.twitter.com/djcqWExR6N

— MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (@MRC_Outbreak) February 10, 2020

Interestingly, President Xi has apparently expressed the opinion that current quarantine measures may be too restrictive, and harming the economy. 🙂

Interestingly, President Xi has apparently expressed the opinion that current quarantine measures may be too restrictive, and harming the economy

Well there’s no point worrying about a few % of a middling % of people dying of infection if the solution is starving all of them instead.

The Swiss cheese-bunker plan sounds good but I imagine in practice it’ll be full of holes.

<applause>

I was just replying to the insult,

It wasn’t an insult to be fair. Daffy only said that the utter bollocks you posted was utter bollocks. You ‘stocked up’ three weeks ago? What did you honestly think was going to run out last week? 😉 Bog roll?

if you sincerely believed that panic buying was about to start, the last thing you’d logically now be wanting to do is fuel a panic by posting about it on the internet?

So it seemed more likely you were trying intentionally to be funny? Whatever, it’s possible to laugh at what you typed as others have done, and call it out as nonsense without being personally insulting.

(@martinhutch – it’s the same report. I linked to the pdf yesterday. It evidences the estimates. Worth reading.)

What did you honestly think was going to run out last week? 😉 Bog roll?

My Andrex stockpile is all set. Don’t come back here crying when you’re wiping your arse with worthless bank-notes in some post-apocalyptic wasteland in the second week of March. 🙂

wiping your arse with worthless bank-notes

Given they’re all plastic this could get messy, but contactless doesn’t seem to work very well.

but contactless doesn’t seem to work very well.

You can still just swipe your card in the slot like you used to.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51466362

So “Covid-19” is the best they could come up with – the world’s finest medical brains, and that’s all they got?

“We had to find a name that did not refer to a geographical location, an animal, an individual or group of people, and which is also pronounceable and related to the disease,” the WHO chief said.

There’s your brief STW – get to it.

29er virus.
Doesn’t make the trails victims come alive.

Bog roll?

Imagine a world without bog roll! We’re simply not prepared for that level of privation, no matter what WWII make do and mend spirit Boris Johnson tries to encourage with some Churchillian speech. I’m quite looking forward to not having to go to work though.

So “Covid-19” is the best they could come up with

I preferred ‘wu-flu’ but I’m aware of the slightly racist undertones of that.

There’s your brief STW – get to it.

The screaming ab-dabs

The WHO has a point, the 2009 H1n1 flu spread from the United States – we didn’t call it yank-flu or fat **** flu.

Also, covid-19 sounds likes something that would end the world. It’s got a certain Resident evil or half-life ring to it.

Also, covid-19 sounds likes something that would end the world. It’s got a certain Resident evil or half-life ring to it.

I keep thinking of crows but that’s corvid.

As a name, no-one’s raven about it.

There’s your brief STW – get to it

Billy Ray?

Death bug, possibly.

There’s your brief STW – get to it.

Poorly make bad feel virus 19

Covid Stiffee?

Kill All-a’s too covidy for crows, it’s only for me and my dog.

Well the last outbreak was called middle Eastern respiratory syndrome.

Carrying on the theme and ramping it up a bit this should be called Chinese death plague of doom.

Hong Kong fluey?

The wild animals cannot fight back so their virus come to their defense. (a bit like War of the Worlds)

In future all wild animals will develop virus to defend themselves against being hunted for “food”.

Kung Flu Fighting?

…I’ll get me Kimono…

Joker-19

“We had to find a name that did not refer to a geographical location, an animal, an individual or group of people, and which is also pronounceable and related to the disease,”

Oh Aye, they’re always careful like that – was just the same with New Delhi Metalloproteinase 😉

You ‘stocked up’ three weeks ago? What did you honestly think was going to run out last week?

It is not about things running out, it is about getting things delivered, shops being open. Not much use having a shop full of stock if the staff are all in quarantine is there.

Once a lot of areas are locked down, lots of quarantining going on, factories closing etc it will be hard to get the vital supplies. We have over 20 animals and don’t want to be in a position where they have no food. Simple precaution and just buying a bit more food than I normally would as we always have stocks of food (i.e. we don’t wait until we have no food before ordering more), we now just have higher stocks (none of which will go to waste due to shelf life)

If it doesn’t become a much bigger problem in next months then so be be it, if it does then I won’t have a load of animals staving to death.

I don’t think any of that makes me a “pillock”

I preferred ‘wu-flu’ but I’m aware of the slightly racist undertones of that.

Will the remainder of the Wu-tang clan do a remix?

The Wu-flu bug aint nuttin to f with

Ah so, how’s about ‘No.19’?

We have over 20 animals

eat the animals. 😉

Wu-tang clan

Flu-Tang Clan, surely?

All this is enough to put us off our bat soup, or as we call it here, chicken of the cave.

As an example of the people you all seem to have trust in. Wife works in NHS surgery. Yesterday afternoon in walks a woman who has just come back from China and says she thinks she may have it. (Didn’t phone anyone first, didn’t book appointment)
Surgery got a deep clean and are contemplating whether to now close.

As an example of the people you all seem to have trust in…

I have absolute trust in the public and your example does nothing but reinforce that trust.

So “Covid-19” is the best they could come up with

Cat aids. The wu kind.

We’ve had the following from a customer.

Please confirm that the produce supplied to XXX Food Company has not been affected by this outbreak and what you have in place in order to mitigate the risk of contamination and contingency plans to maintain a safe supply chain.

How do you start with confirming that it hasn’t been affected when it’s an ever changing situation? No one ever asks the same question when it’s flu season! The number of products we supply containing ingredients from China is miniscule, but there’s no guarantees other than best practice being carried out as with any other illness.

How do you start with confirming that it hasn’t been affected when it’s an ever changing situation?

Do they have 20 cats?

Completely aside from whether folks think he is or is not overreacting, I’m intrigued by what type of animals kerley has? Are these all pets?? Or do you live on a farm?

20 seems a very high number..I have visions of a home petting zoo.

I live in Worthing, I’ve had symptoms of malaise for years, now I know why.

, I’m intrigued by what type of animals kerley has?

I’m guessing bats chickens of the cave?