MCTD – you must be just round the corner from me.

I’m hoping the transmission between kids outside of school doesn’t pass it on to the school where 2 of my kids are going through the exam chaos and the added stress that causes

Meanwhile in Sunny Spain Mrs DOD got a phone asking her to rock up at the local sports centre for a dose of moderna on Saturday.

Mines likely to be the following weekend.

So It appears my Murcia online vaccination registration worked and got us into the system as we are both private health non retirees not registered in the local health system.

Worth having your Facebook feeds following local news in Spanish as opposed to some of the ex-pat er groups.

Its not over yet:

Modelling by Imperial College’s COVID-19 Response Team also found there could be a “small wave” of hospital admissions and around 9,000 additional deaths by June 2022 if steps three and four of the roadmap continue as scheduled.

They said the timing and size of a third wave will depend on the levels of transmission between 17 May, when restrictions are next eased, and 21 June, when all limits on social contact are due to be removed.

But, if variants of concern emerge that are comparable to the Kent variant, the third wave could be “substantially larger” – both in hospital admissions and deaths – than the spike in the winter of 2021, the researchers said.

Yikes.

And the link for that https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/220894/latest-models-suggest-smaller-third-wave/

I thought a 3rd wave had already been forecast,  even mentioned by Boris?

And why does 9000 excess deaths over the next 13 months seem optimistic?

So our quarantine period of two weeks is over and we all got tested today and are all negative which means we are allowed to rejoin society! In our case our 9yo son caught it from another boy in his class. We have since found out that seven other kids in his class tested positive and one educator. But of those eight only two showed any symptoms at all, my son and one of his best friends.Our son then infected the whole family at home (seven of us and the only ones to show symptoms were myself and Mrs Stern. Not sure if the first vaccine shot helped us or not We weren’t hospitalized!

MCTD – you must be just round the corner from me.

*Waves from Ilkeston *

Fully recovered RS?

What symptoms did you experience?

Which vaccine, how many shots, and when?

Unlocking papers are published today on the SAGE website here if interested.

Questions I am interested in; If no surge is noted, which part of the model is wrong? If a significant replacement of UK variant is noted, how does this change the model predictions?

Models only capture the current essence of what’s known. They now are all very good at describing what has been seen, including past interventions. But the challenge is the known unknowns that are not in the models; baseline hospital-acquired infections, new strain emergence, waning immunity from vaccines… Quite a long list. But they are one way of trying to capture all that we know to date. And we know a lot more than a year ago. But three and six months in the future is still a long way off in prediction land!

Australia vaccination program continues at quite a pedestrian pace – mostly to do with availability.

Apparently they are starting to vaccinate the 40-49 cohort in the next week or two (me!), as they are expecting shipments of Pfizer to ramp-up – and these have be earmarked for the under 40s.

It will be interesting to see what the uptake in Australia is – people seem far less motivated here to get a jab, mostly to do with the low impact of covid.

@Del Yes fully recovered thankfully. For me the symptoms were a fever, an intense headache and muscle ache but only my hamstrings. Plus the general feeling of being weak. The fever and headache lasted about three days and the rest a week or so longer. Mrs Stern had the same but a sore throat, too. Our kids ranged from nothing to a mild sore throat and slight temperature. We had the first shot of the AZ about 8 days before the infection started.

It will be interesting to see what the uptake in Australia is – people seem far less motivated here to get a jab, mostly to do with the low impact of covid.

You learnt from our failure with the initial lockdown and quarantine, hopefully you can learn from our success with the vaccine

Thanks RS. Glad to hear you’re fully recovered 👍

Apparently farce book and other social media sites are taking down all misinformation regarding vaccinations.
Having spoken to the 2 ladies that own and run a local shop (who haven’t had/won’t have their vaccinations yet and they are both well over 50), I would like to ask them why. Is it a fear of the actual jab, is it because they’ve listened to rubbish being spouted around, is it because they can’t actually get to a vaccination site. If that is the case, then maybe in a few months time there could be reminder invitations sent out and some way where they can get to a more local centre (the owner of the shop works 6 days a week and long hours). It’s worrying as they serve 100’s of customers per day.
We’ll just have to rely on the majority that have taken up the jab, as in time they will be the ones who save us.

Edit – RoterStern – glad you have recovered. When I had my first OzA/Z jab the nurse said it will take 3 weeks to be immunised. You may have had fewer symptoms because you’d had at least a week of immunisation.

The World Health Organisation should have declared a global emergency earlier than 30 January 2020 and recommended travel restrictions to prevent the outbreak of the COVID pandemic, a panel has said.

A report issued by an independent panel into the handling of the pandemic has also found that the month of February last year was “lost” as countries failed to take strong measures to halt the spread of the virus.

Everyone on here called me out at the time for giving the WHO a hard time about their reaction to the pandemic but an independent panel have now come out and said it.

http://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-world-health-organisation-should-have-declared-global-emergency-earlier-to-prevent-outbreak-of-pandemic-report-finds-12304277

MCTD

*Waves from Ilkeston *

*waves back from Sandiacre*

WHO should have “acted” sooner… although they were still completely dependent on countries doing the acting… and many of them obviously weren’t prepared to do so ’till they were counting bodies at home.

WHO should have “acted” sooner

I’m glad you agree now

So what would have changed if the WHO had declared a global pandemic earlier? Did we wait for their declaration before suddenly acting, or just carry on ignoring it, same as before?

*waves back from Sandiacre*

Ah, the posh end of Stabbo…..

Everyone on here called me out at the time for giving the WHO a hard time about their reaction to the pandemic but an independent panel have now come out and said it.

To save me rereading the entire thread, you were saying this back in February 2020?

So, is there any difference between last time we loosened restrictions (last year) and this time, other than the vaccine?

So, is there any difference between last time we loosened restrictions (last year) and this time, other than the vaccine?

Hopefully hindsight as to how peak stuff can actually get when we think its all over… But ultimately I would say no.

There are differences in the way we test and react to outbreaks, particularly around the new variants. We haven’t taken the brakes off completely in one hit, although to counter that, schools will have been back a full term, so the opportunity for transmission is still there.

And while there are grumbling areas of higher rates in a few areas this time around, last time the virus had not been suppressed properly in a whole swathe of northern England. Greater Manchester barely got out of lockdown before it was back in ‘special measures’.

But yes, vaccination is the route out of this, and that’s the massive difference. But we shouldn’t downplay the potential impact of non-fatal covid infections in the younger unvaccinated population. Which is why we should perhaps be sticking with some of the mitigations – masks, distancing – until more groups are vaccinated.

Re Australia I was rather shocked after a facetime with my sister in law the other day in which I was saying I hoped we could see them before too long and how was vaccination going over there? only for her to say she wasn’t going to be getting a vaccine any time soon because of the blood clots and lack of vaccine testing and that this was quite wide spread thinking within oz because they is no hurry due to levels of covid being non existent. I get where they are coming from to some extent but if she and others don’t get on and get vaccinated how does she expect Australia to open up and for her to ever see her siblings and parents again? I said that our perspective over here is that until the whole world is vaccinated this isn’t over and that it’s a team effort so perhaps she’ll think about it as she’s a sound and intelligent person.

Well I did my first gym session this afternoon and it was a mixed bag of experiences.

The rules say you should wipe down the equipment before and after you use it, most were doing the before but not the after. Some just didn’t bother at all.
You’re meant to wear a mask at all times you’re not actually working out, this was pretty much ignored by half of the people in there.
Plenty of people in small groups sharing equipment and not being aware of others around them.
In the whole time I was there (45 minutes) I only saw 3 other people scan the check-in QR code so if any outbreak happens T&T have no hope of tracing everyone.

The staff were trying to control thigs as best they can but as it’s a large warehouse and they also have to take care of people with questions, watch out for the perverts ogling the ladies (spotted a few), do their cleaning rounds and keep an eye on overall numbers they really do have a difficult task on their hands. It’s pretty easy to control my exposure to other people’s sweat by wiping the equipment but it’s plainly obvious that it won’t take much for lots of people to become infected if it gets in there.

So, is there any difference between last time we loosened restrictions (last year) and this time, other than the vaccine?

People seem to be much more reluctant to rush out and do what they want, taking it easy and avoiding the crowds. There seems to be much more general awareness that we need to be sensible overall, especially if the Indian, or another, variant takes hold. How long this will last is the question.

especially if the Indian, or another, variant takes hold

Looking at the data, that’s not an ‘if’.

Lowish numbers still, but doubling time (of detected Indian variant cases*) in Bolton seems to be roughly six days. In a week I guess we’ll be looking for any increase in hospitalisation in key groups. And signs of breakout into the rest of the NW. Right on Boris’ grand opening day. Fancy that!

Crossing everything that the vaccines will continue to be effective, more or less.

*partly due to surge testing, maybe? Turn over a rock and you will find more cases.

Guardian are reporting in the live feed that both Moderna and Pfizer appear to “neutralise” the Indian variant.

There was an article on an outbreak in a care home of the Indian variant. All patients vaccinated with AZ x2. 4 admitted to hospital (due to age, mild disease) no deaths.

So, public enquiry starts next spring. No chance of it reporting before the next election. How convenient.

Like you thought he wasn’t going to get away with it? Pffft…

Guardian are reporting in the live feed that both Moderna and Pfizer appear to “neutralise” the Indian variant.

Yeah, I reckon we’ll know for sure in the next couple of weeks. I’m hopeful.

In the meantime we need to crack on with vaccinating the 30s-40s. That for me is key to breaking the school-home transmission route.

That for me is key to breaking the school-home transmission route.

Definitely. I accept that the priority had to be with age and vulnerability but “if” the vaccine reduces transmission then that age group could be key.

So, public enquiry starts next spring. No chance of it reporting before the next election. How convenient.

Well, given the next election can be whenever he chooses, why would you expect otherwise? 😁

No chance of it reporting before the next election.

Its not like the terms of reference will allow it to do any damage anyway. Might be a few inconvenient interviews but the only time an inquiry will come out against the target is when the people commissioning it want it to.

Not looking good in Bolton and Glasgow according to BBC articles today, on the face of it we could be opening things up just as the Indian strain starts to spread through the unvaccinated younger generation, at the very least.

There is apparent rapid growth of variants with the S-gene (SA and India), as a proportion of all cases and absolute numbers in some regions. Looking hard at regional hospitalisations for signals. I suspect that there will be protection from morbidity but perhaps less for symptoms – which may drive an increase in testing and hence cases. We shall see soon. UK variant will essentially be gone by June, The previous wild-type with Spanish mutation disappeared just as rapidly.

That for me is key to breaking the school-home transmission route.

There are lots of ways to break the transmission routes, and keep schools open. We’re leaning on the vaccines as if they are a silver bullet, and everything else can be dropped more or less straight away. No masks for older teens from Monday is still crazy if you want to reduce spread while we get the vaccines rolled out to all.

You learnt from our failure with the initial lockdown and quarantine, hopefully you can learn from our success with the vaccine

errrrr…… no. It’s true that the UK has contributed a lot of data demonstrating how to royally **** up a pandemic response, but it was doing that AFTER other countries had shown pretty clearly how to do those things successfully – so not super helpful. Believe me, everyone over here was looking at the laundry list of errors made by the UK in utter disbelief that you* could be so stupid.

*not YOU you, obviously.

The UKs vaccine success is entirely to do with early procurement, and the fact that the UK was in a very bad state at the point the vaccine was rolled-out. Those two things have guaranteed both the supply and the demand for jabs. It’s of course true that the distribution of the jabs has been very successful – and I think we’re all equal-parts amazed and relieved that bojo and chums haven’t found a way to also **** that up.
Australia ordered a load of vaccine too – many times more than is required to vaccinate the whole country, but presumably on less favorable contact terms, as we are still supply constrained, so distribution is somewhat of a moot point.

Re Australia I was rather shocked after a facetime with my sister in law the other day in which I was saying I hoped we could see them before too long and how was vaccination going over there? only for her to say she wasn’t going to be getting a vaccine any time soon because of the blood clots and lack of vaccine testing and that this was quite wide spread thinking within oz because they is no hurry due to levels of covid being non existent. I get where they are coming from to some extent but if she and others don’t get on and get vaccinated how does she expect Australia to open up and for her to ever see her siblings and parents again? I said that our perspective over here is that until the whole world is vaccinated this isn’t over and that it’s a team effort so perhaps she’ll think about it as she’s a sound and intelligent person.

Yes, treatment compliance is always going to be an issue when you are trying to treat/prevent a disease which is having close-to-zero impact – see also hypertension. Australia’s last, single covid death was 21 Oct 2020 – so people just don’t see the jab as a priority in the same way that people in the UK do, our response has been too successful. I’m hoping the Indian situation will wake people up a bit. I think there is a lot of PR work to do – there are of course the same stories about clotting etc over here as in the UK, but not the corresponding success story about declining deaths/admissions and “reward” of easing of restrictions to motivate people to get the jab.

I will be getting my jab in the next few weeks I think, as will most of the people I know – however, there is a really significant chunk of Australian society who only see the risks of the vaccine and no benefits.

Australia are publishing a plan shortly outlining the plan to relax border restrictions. It seems inevitable that this is going to be linked to both personal vaccination status, and population vaccination level. That should focus peoples minds a bit.

Bit of advice regarding home test kits (from the NHS)

I’m due to visit a friend next week who is medically vulnerable,  along with doing what I currently can to avoid (thank you WFH) infection and setting the visit itself up (outdoors, plenty of distance) I’ve a pack of LFR kits arriving.

Is there a strategy for using these to get better results,  I’m both possibly over thinking this and also naive to their use having never used them before.

I was wondering if two test in a day are more likely to catch an infection.  I’m told they’re not the most reliable but I’m unsure I’d they have a bias to false positive or negative results?

Mrs Routes uses them twice weekly. If it’s good enough for NHS staff visiting vulnerable patients in their homes and undertaking personal care then I’d think that was ok for you too.

* Appropriate PPE is also used of course.