We’re well over 50% immunity

Define immunity. We’re at well over 50% of the public having good protection from serious illness. Transmission is a different matter. We’re in a much stronger position coming out of this lockdown than other ones. The worry some have, it seems, is that as people know this, they will take less care, and behaviour changes could cancel out some of the advantages gained from vaccinations and previous infections. I’m feeling more positive… but only time will tell.

How agile is vaccine development and production likely to be? Will it be able to match what us usually achieved with Flu vaccines?

Likely a step change from first innovators. The first COVID challenge study is underway by hvivo (at Imperial College). This has been set up as a mainstay efficacy model for vaccines. But approval based on antibody titer for small changes may also be possible. Big, placebo controlled trials of 10,000 people are unlikely for small genetic changes.

https://hvivo.com/the-human-challenge-programme/

ElShalimo
Full Member

The extra 100k above is framed as those deemed too old or too sick for us to care about

it’s so insidious this, there’s obviously people who’ve pushed it as a message, and there’s some that seem to believe it’s true, and I’m sure there’s lots that find it easier to live with covid by thinking that if you’re not already ill you’re safer…

But if I died of it, I’d count as having a “pre-existing medical complaint”. I’m 42, I’m fit, in better shape than most people my age, none of my medical conditions place me in any risk normally but these people would file me straight under “doesn’t really count”. It’s bloody absurd tbh and offensive and I’d like to track down all the people that have used it as useful lie and boot them in the nuts.

The doublethink is bizarre too. Like, the people who’ve been targeted for the vaccine so far are all groups that are considered more at risk. Every single one of us would be in the group that gets dismissed by these scumbags as not really counting as a proper death, and it’s basically half of the population.

I don’t see there being any more big waves, even in cases let alone deaths. The official models all make rather pessimistic assumptions for their central cases. We’re well over 50% immunity, far higher than that in the most vulnerable groups, and peoples’ behaviour has changed for the long term in terms of reducing contact. Especially with summer coming and people only gradually starting to mix more indoors, I’m confident that vaccination is going to stay ahead of the curve. (NB mixing outdoors is basically safe anyway, so party on, in the parks and on the beach.)

I fancy offering my best layman’s guess like everyone else.

I’m delighted how well the Vaccine roll-out is going, even with the big reduction in supply this month, it’s going quicker than pretty much anyone hoped back in Jan, including me and I’m a pretty optimistic person. Here we moved to the 45-49 age group and within days the 40-44 age group was included. We’ve at least offered a first jab to the 99% of people who were likely to end up in hospital if they got covid.

I’m also delighted the uptake has also been much higher than most people hoped, especially in the highest risk groups, well over 90% in most of them.

And, whilst it was only ever a good bet, and there’s no firm data yet, it seems the vaccine does a good job of reducing transmission too, the rate in which infection rates are falling and continue to fall, especially here in Wales is remarkable. We have 7 local authority areas which have reported ZERO new infections in the last week.

Back in Jan, based on nothing but my muggles guess an reading my Wife’s daily NHS trust briefing I said/hoped the healthcare crisis would be over by Easter, by that I meant that Hospitals would be easily able to cope with Covid patients and they are, and deaths would be very low, which they are. The numbers of people in Hospital in Wales with Covid is falling and also the number of people in Hospital BECAUSE of Covid is falling too. I’m not bragging, I’m relieved.

It seems pretty crazy, but within the next 9 weeks (I think) we could see the end of all Covid restrictions, no masks, no social distancing, nothing, just ‘normal life’ there’s some debate over that, but that’s the crux of it.

There are risks, new strains, or even established ones like the SA which the AZ vaccine doesn’t work so well with.

My worry though is the younger population, the 40-50 age group are expected to have a much lower up-take in Vaccines, I know of the 15 or so people in my riding whatsapp group which is a pretty decent cross-section of society, but most in that age group, I know of at least 2 of us who’ll refuse it. In the Under 40s it likely to be much lower again.

I suspect a massive spike in infections in the under 40s when social restrictions end, we’ve seen so many scenes on TV of people in their 20s who can’t help but ‘party’ any time they can, frankly I’m not sure I’d have been any better at that age, in fact, I know I’d be one of the worst. It’s perhaps no bad thing, there’s no eradicating Covid now I think, we’re all going to have to build up antibodies one way or another, but it will spread to older people who either the vaccine doesn’t work for, or chose not to have it. Death of course is a normal part of life, but it’s one of those uncomfortable truths, I don’t think there is enough public support to keep restrictions in place until we’ve vaccinated everyone over 12 (is that the new cut off?) in the UK, so we just have to hope we don’t get too many new strains.

We’ve at least offered a first jab to the 99% of people who were likely to end up in hospital if they got covid.

We really haven’t…(data from October 12, 2020)

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/03/Covid-Publication-11-03-2021-Supplementary-Data.xlsx

Admissions 0-54 56,446
Admissions 55+ 192,502

Over 80% most likely (since those with additional risk factors <50 have been offered vaccine, but not 99% by any means. A lot of healthy young people have been going to hospital. And coming home. I’m (just) in the first group 🙂

So, watching the news coverage, if you are sat outside a pub with 5 friends, you no longer have to socially distance even if they are not in your household/support bubble?

You’ve never *had* to socially distance. It’s always just been advice. Businesses could have in theory been forced to close for breaching health and safety rules though.

Are people really thinking that by June we will not be social distancing and wearing masks in shops?
Even if we get up to very high vaccination levels, the vaccine is not 100% effective and also doesn’t 100% stop transmission.
I can see us wearing make for a fair bit longer. Also hopefully it will stop some of the annoying colds that come around at work too

Are people really thinking that by June we will not be social distancing and wearing masks in shops?
Even if we get up to very high vaccination levels, the vaccine is not 100% effective and also doesn’t 100% stop transmission.
I can see us wearing make for a fair bit longer. Also hopefully it will stop some of the annoying colds that come around at work too

I think I’ll be masking and avoiding large crowds for a while, I must admit, mainly for selfish reasons.

Same here. Mostly because this area continued to be a hotspot between lockdowns, and still is. If I lived elsewhere I might have a different attitude about this summer. Also, having a type 1 diabetic son means continued caution while we wait for Pfizer to be approved for teens. Will be beer-gardening though the summer… I’ll be outside with the smokers and sun worshippers… and won’t be moaning about it. God I’ve missed pubs.

Another person I know killed themselves this weekend. That’s 5 since lockdowns started.

Normally it’s about 1 a year or less

Any suicide is one too many but the rate has not increased throughout the pandemic according to research by the BMJ

Where I stay there’s sadly been two in the last month, one was a 70+ woman with mild dementia and bi polar syndrome who walked into the river a few weeks ago, her body was recently found round the coastline and the 2nd was someone I know (fisherman 36) who overdosed,he hadn’t been able to earn or export his catch since last year and couldn’t pay his mortgage or loan on his boat

We really haven’t…(data from October 12, 2020)

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/03/Covid-Publication-11-03-2021-Supplementary-Data.xlsx

Admissions 0-54 56,446
Admissions 55+ 192,502

Over 80% most likely (since those with additional risk factors <50 have been offered vaccine, but not 99% by any means. A lot of healthy young people have been going to hospital. And coming home. I’m (just) in the first group 🙂

I suspect he meant those that are in the top 9 cohorts that make up 99% of deaths, not hospitalisations.

I’m going to be wearing a mask for some time i think.

Sorry to hear about another suicide, the mental health costs of the pandemic will be huge. I’m just grateful that my issues last year were not depressive so nothing happened

Any suicide is one too many but the rate has not increased throughout the pandemic according to research by the BMJ

I did a mental health for managers course at work last year, and this sort of stat was also quoted. However, the trainer was cautious that the real effects will not be seen until some time after; at the moment we are looking out for those friends and colleagues we worry about, we have campaigns and support, financial support for those that need it (yes, not enough and not everyone that needs it gets helped) and so on. It’s when the majority go back to normal leaving a some behind that she worries that the impact will be felt.

Sorry about your friend YGH

Very sad to hear your news YGH

Slight departure from the discussion (wasn’t sure if it warranted a new thread or not)…

Has anyone’s employer provided the rapid test kits for their staff? Just wondering how well it’s gone, what the take-up has been etc

I’ve got a small business and have ordered some, I think it’s a great idea provided it’s widely used across as many companies as possible. I imagine our staff being very willing to do them (initially at least). hopefully other companies will follow suit…

One of my work buddies Dad died from COVID-19 at the weekend, he was 88 with COPD – he’d refused the vaccine as he lived alone and didn’t feel he was at risk, he’d told his doctor that his jab should be given to someone who needed it more.
My buddy was with his Dad when he died – and has now tested positive, despite being jabbed a month ago.
His household now need to isolate for 10 days whilst trying to sort out the death of a loved one.

A timely reminder that this is still not over – despite Primark and the pubs now reopening.

According to Boris Johnson, all over 50’s in the UK have now been offered a vaccine. Not in my experience they haven’t!

NHS website now accepting vaccination bookings for 45-50 y/o. Just booked my wife in for Thursday 15 Apr & 2 July

How did you book? Still saying 50 here:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/

Boomer Lives Matter!

It remains slightly disappointing that we seem to have to dispel the whole ‘Great Barrington Delusion’ every twenty pages or so, but can someone at least sort out the Broken Page Link Declaration of a few pages ago?

#iamnotaboomer
#someofmybestfriendsareboomers
#killallboomers

It let me book anyway (47).

Another over 50 who can’t book (posted earlier)
However I have just booked, or rather have been given the option to book.
I downloaded the NHS app and linked my NHS number and surgery which took 5 min and involved taking a pic of my passport and some weird FP flashing face scan.

This seems to have solved the issues of being unable to book despite trying every day and calling 3 times.

So if you are eligible/over 50 try the app (not the track and trace one)

But I didn’t book as I found out they are doing walk-ins at various vaccine hubs in my health area (SE London) so I’m off to Guys/St Thomas’s in the morning as that’s a day earlier than a booked appointment with the app. (Or a Lidl was another option?!)
So try your local health area website as they may do walk-ins for over 50’s with no appointment.

I think people are referring to the NHS England booking system. I’m in Scotland (Highlands). The system he is that vaccinations are given by the local GP Practice. They contract their patients in order, as they are allocated supplies. They are vaccinating some over 50’s today, but do not have doses for all. As I’m 52, going on 53, they must be well short of having enough doses for the over 50’s. I’m sure I’m far from alone.

So is Boris mis-informed, lying, or confused about the difference between England and the UK?

Vaccination data for Scotland

Locally I know they’re now doing some 40+ year olds when they have enough doses.

I just booked my vaccination online, in the 45-49 age group in Bristol.

Managed to book late last night for the 45-49 group. Went for the madjeski stadium in Reading and just read they’ll be one of the places giving the Moderna jab so fingers crossed. Jab in a couple of hours.

47, had my first OxAZ jab yesterday after work and now feeling pretty rough with side effects that feel like flu.

Got text from my GP practice two weeks ago for it, did wonder at time if I’d got jab sooner than expected because of my better half’s bad immunological response that started with Covid almost 13 months ago and turned into nasty Long Covid. She’s had ~7 months signed off sick now from her NHS role, not been in since Xmas.

Booking Website appears to have crashed/overloaded for those 45+ trying!

@mudmuncher – truly the stuff of dreams!

Wife (49) booked last night, pre-announcements but didn’t get disqualified at the age section so assumed it was OK and got an appt at a local pharmacy for 0925 today.

As the website crashing – good, not that it’s crashed but good that presumably lots of people want to book!

Great news for everyone in the 45 plus age groups.

Disappointing to see so many (mostly young) out drinking without any social distancing.
Our own local pub has put in lots of safety measures. One has to book. The tables are all well spaced out and the customers can only sit in their own household groups/bubbles.

Too many people as usual thinking this virus has miraculously gone away.

Sorry to hear about your other half n0b0dy0ftheg0at. Hope things get better for her soon.

Doesn’t it depend on the local health authority?

Glos is doing well, as i’m 41 and had mine last week, but had the text nearly 3 weeks ago. They are well into the 30’s group now as my other half has just had her text this week.

Booking for the 45+ in Scotland appears to still be by NHS invitation only and no option to apply via the NHS portal.

Round here anyone over 30 can walk into the vac centre and get a jab. 2nd jab too if you’re at least 28d after the first one (AZ – don’t think they want to mix). I’ll probably get my 2nd this weekend, being 4 weeks after the first.

Round here

Where’s that? Is it an official NHS centre, or just tied to a particular GP practice or group of practices?

Seems to be run from a local pharmacy, using a local church (that supplies a lot of the volunteers). It’s on the NHS website list if you book through that, but didn’t have enough bookings last week so we were basically grabbing people off the street. Now that all the vulnerable groups have been offered, it seems sensible enough to me.

Just booked mine via the NHS website. No issues with booking, had to choose 2 different locations for the jabs to get both in the required time frame, but that’s no problem (west yorkshire).

Went for a post ride pint last night,  it was busy but we had plenty of space. Lots of big groups though & a lot of pissed up young people obviously happy to be back out. We’ll see what happens to the numbers over the next few weeks!

Our local GP led clìnic was complaining about a high number of no-shows last week. Made me think it might be worth some folk just turning up and chancing it.

Can’t come soon enough, I’m in to 40-45 age group so I must be close now – NHS web portal says 45+ and says I’m not yet elliggle if i put my NHS number in.

As an aside I saw this Spanish news article about a potentially different side effct of the AZ vaccine… like with the blod clot side effect, the numbers are tiny (in this case just one known of) in comaprison with doses administered, but still makes you think, Spain only giving AZ to seniors.

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2021/04/13/30-year-old-teacher-in-spain-dies-of-serious-thrombotic-phenomena-within-days-of-receiving-the-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine/

Are people really thinking that by June we will not be social distancing and wearing masks in shops?
Even if we get up to very high vaccination levels, the vaccine is not 100% effective and also doesn’t 100% stop transmission.
I can see us wearing make for a fair bit longer. Also hopefully it will stop some of the annoying colds that come around at work too

I honestly don’t know, that seems to be the goal of the English Gov anyway, but there’s lots of ifs and buts of course and the grown ups in charge like Chris Whitty have mentioned that people have gotten used to masks and it might be sensible to continue with their use past June.

My personal opinion is that if the numbers continue to go the way they are, that come June the onus will switch to individuals and businesses and that’s going to be tricky. There’s such a spread of opinions and ‘comfort levels’ with Covid. Again, personally come June, because I will have had both jabs and assuming things continue as they are now, I’d be happy to go to a busy pub again without a mask.

I will have to accept the same drunken oafs who can’t help but put their arm around you, or worse before aren’t going to be able to stop themselves after this, and, and I don’t know why they seem the exact type of person who will think it’s a “load of old bollocks” and won’t get vaccinated either. It would be nice if Landlords could police it somehow, but I don’t think they will effectively, covidiots seem impervious to good sense.

I know some of my friends wouldn’t be happy to do that, it’ll take them a long time to adjust, and I can understand it, I can’t want pre-covid TV without that sense of anxiety when you see people standing around in crowds. Some of my friends are quite mad, don’t want the vaccine but I know will be first through the door on opening day. You’d hope by then, it’ll be only themselves they endanger, mostly anyway.