Apparently new study shows that the new UK variant is twice as deadly as the initial strains.

That’s not great news..

Apparently new study shows that the new UK variant is twice as deadly as the initial strains.

That’s not great news..

The one thats been the dominant UK strain since late autumn, sometimes called the Kent strain?
Or is there a new new strain?

The Kent strain which is now the dominant variant in uk

Have you got a link for that @tpbiker ?
More transmissible we knew but more deadly?

Metro link

But it’s in loads of papers today apparently

Ok cheers. I don’t read any papers and there was nothing on the beeb. I’ll have a look at the bmj when it plops through the letterbox though!

In fact found it on bmj.com

Main outcome measure Death within 28 days of the first positive SARS-CoV-2 test result.

Results The mortality hazard ratio associated with infection with VOC-202012/1 compared with infection with previously circulating variants was 1.64 (95% confidence interval 1.32 to 2.04) in patients who tested positive for covid-19 in the community. In this comparatively low risk group, this represents an increase in deaths from 2.5 to 4.1 per 1000 detected cases.

Conclusions The probability that the risk of mortality is increased by infection with VOC-202012/01 is high. If this finding is generalisable to other populations, infection with VOC-202012/1 has the potential to cause substantial additional mortality compared with previously circulating variants. Healthcare capacity planning and national and international control policies are all impacted by this finding, with increased mortality lending weight to the argument that further coordinated and stringent measures are justified to reduce deaths from SARS-CoV-2.

Yep it was the bmj article that originally popped up on my feed. I don’t understand the details, but the key numbers didn’t look great

Well I’m just a gp not a clever dr but I think hazard ratio 1.64 means for every death resulting from the old school variant there is 1.64 from the new strain. Not quite twice as deadly but significantly more.
However it’s still low overall. Increase from 2.5 to 4.1 deaths per thousand cases. Mortality rate of 0.0041 instead of 0.0025

would that be across age group populations, or skewed to the most susceptible? If we are vaccinating the more susceptible, and the vaccine remains effective against the Kent strain, is that increase materially important ‘in the real world’ ?

No idea but digging a bit deeper into the paper:

We cannot exclude a selection bias. Community testing is largely self-selected, or driven by contact tracing. A potential bias remains if a higher proportion of patients with S gene negative infections without symptoms were undetected than patients with S gene positive infections. In this event, patients infected with VOC-202012/1 might be at a more advanced stage of disease when identified and have a higher apparent mortality. This could be consistent with the lower N gene cycle threshold values observed in S gene negative participants. Our analysis, or any retrospective study based on patients with symptoms, would not be able to detect this; however, early survey data suggest that people with S gene negative infections are, if anything, more likely to present for testing.22 Dealing with this potential bias requires a study design capable of detecting asymptomatic infections in participants who are negative or positive for the S gene.

Some of the increased risk could be explained by comorbidities. Information was not available about comorbid conditions in the data we analysed, although this would be partly controlled for by matching on age, ethnicity, and index of multiple deprivation. Currently there is no evidence of a mechanistic reason why people with certain comorbidities would be infected with one variant and not another. It is possible, however, that people with certain comorbidities are at a higher risk of infection with VOC-202012/1 and have a higher mortality rate. This would tend to reduce the hazard ratio attributable to VOC-202012/1 alone.

Like all science this is a tiny piece of a big jigsaw.
This was everyone over 30 with a positive test in the community, randomly split into the 2 genotypes and then followed up by counting numbers of deaths.

If we are vaccinating the more susceptible, and the vaccine remains effective against the Kent strain, is that increase materially important ‘in the real world’ ?

There will always be a small slice of the vulnerable groups who either don’t receive the vaccine or it doesn’t work for them, so yes, it’s relevant. No data yet, but you’d also perhaps suspect that if you were seeing more serious illness in older people that younger patients would potentially be more seriously impacted as well, perhaps with more hospitalisation and morbidity.

Plus if a mutation with this feature of the original Kent strain, plus some more vaccine-evading ability emerged, it will get much more relevant.

However, the Kent strain is pretty much the only game in town in the UK now, so in that sense, it is what it is.

Well if it’s so deadly, our vaccines & lockdown truly are world beating, because deaths are plunging much faster than wave 1.

I imagine the cases rising in the last few days is the result of testing millions of schoolkids?

Aren’t deaths per admission also lower?

Well if it’s so deadly, our vaccines & lockdown truly are world beating, because deaths are plunging much faster than wave 1.

Despite an (even) shit(tier) lockdown, and lower compliance with the rules, and more people in work, and it being the middle of a wet feburary rather than sunny spring; deaths per day is declining at double the rate of wave 1.

Up until the last few weeks we seemed to be tracking quite well with the TiRed rule of thumb of proportionality to “cases 2 weeks ago”. And it has since improved.

I do wonder how mass testing all schoolkids three times a week is going to affect the cases number going forwards.

I imagine the cases rising in the last few days is the result of testing millions of schoolkids?

Cases rising where? In the uk They’ve been consistently falling the last week compared with numbers on the same day the previous week.

Apologies if this is a bit of a derailment, a do I need to isolate question…

Ex wife has tested positive (works in a school – who’d of thought it) we don’t live together but I do go round to pick up kids. Both myself and two children had covid in December and I also had my first vaccination last month. I appreciate the vax doesn’t prevent infection. I do lat flow tests for work (NHS) and the kids do them at school.

Do we isolate for the full 10 days or can we depend on the results of the lat flow tests? I’m keen not to transmit it to anyone or break any rules.

Thanks

I do wonder how mass testing all schoolkids three times a week is going to affect the cases number going forwards.

Up, whether that’s right or wrong we won’t know…

BBC News – Covid-19: False test results ‘ruining’ return to school
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56349116

Myti – cases risen slightly last 2 days. Schools started Lateral flow tests this week, with results fed into T&T.

They always rise as the week progresses. They have fallen each day though compared with the same day last week so actually cases are still falling. This is a good source for keeping track.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

I would imagine that with increased testing there will be a rise in cases. Given that cases will be predominantly in the younger demographic it will hopefully have a limited increase in hospitalisation. Well until Junior goes to meet Grandma and Grandad.

Well until Junior goes to meet Grandma and Grandad.

Who should hopefully be vaccinated.

Ah, good point. Though not the 2nd one yet perhaps.

I thought the AZ vaccine was a two shot vaccination. Originally the second shot within 3weeks but now UK gov has said up to 12weeks. I am aware that a good amount of protection comes from shot1.

It’s semantics I know but BBC now refer to second Jag as a booster as opposed to….
Just sounds a bit less important.
The last Jag in a rabies series isn’t the booster it’s completing the treatment.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-and-treatment/when-to-self-isolate-and-what-to-do/

@bensongd

That’s the guidance at the mo irrespective of vaccination status, testing, and previous infection.

Lateral flow tests can and do give false negatives. The purpose of lateral flow testing is to find asymptomatic carriers and pull them out rather than act as an ‘all clear so that means I can go on a grab a granny night’

BBC has an article today about the surge in Brazil, over 2000 deaths in a day “concerned that Brazil has almost become a “natural laboratory” – where people can see what happens when coronavirus goes relatively unchecked.” and “breeding ground for new variants of the virus”.

Brazil has over 3 times the population of the UK, where the peak daily deaths reach 1820. The total deaths per head in the UK so far are about 50% more than Brazil. Worldometers suggests that the number of infections in Brazil is about 1 million, and the peak in the UK was 2 million (so six times as high, allowing for difference in population). The only area where Brazil is worse than UK is that their rates are still rising.

It astonishes me that the party in government in the UK is ahead in the opinion polls.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56351084

Just a little heads up for vulnerable that have had 1 jab.
Latest study shows it’s not giving protection as hoped in cancer patients using the 12 week gap. Three week gap recommended. Stay safe.

Dr Sheeba Irshad, oncologist and senior study author from King’s College London, said the findings were “really worrying” and recommended an urgent review of the timing of doses for people in clinically extremely vulnerable groups.

“Until then, it is important that cancer patients continue to observe all public health measures in place such as social distancing and shielding when attending hospitals, even after vaccination,” she said.

HEY TIRED – YOU IN THE NEWS?😎

BBC reporting Denmark halting AZ vaccination programme over blood clots in patients. Surely this would have flagged up before now if a valid issue?

BBC reporting Denmark halting AZ vaccination programme over blood clots in patients. Surely this would have flagged up before now if a valid issue

You’d like to think so given he number of folks in UK who have received it so far, many of whom I imagine don’t have arteries in the best of shape.

It astonishes me that the party in government in the UK is ahead in the opinion polls.

Yes, but they were doing their best….

Sometimes the drugs DO work…

https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/vir-biotechnology-and-gsk-announce-vir-7831-reduces-hospitalisation-and-risk-of-death-in-early-treatment-of-adults-with-covid-19/#

Been a little busy of late. But the submission work for approval just begins. For some perspective, this is the THIRD clinical test of an anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody to show protection in symptomatic patients at risk of serious COVID19. Unlike Regeneron and Lilly, it is a single antibody, and appears to have a high hurdle to resistance. We shall see.

What is pleasing is that if you have some potent neutralising antibodies, your infection course is less severe. Most likely such antibodies will also protect against catching symptomatic infection too. The translation to vaccines is also relatively straightforward: Antibodies good, from where – probably doesn’t matter.

Thanks – sounding positive. Good work 👍👍

@Greybeard

Brazil has over 3 times the population of the UK, where the peak daily deaths reach 1820. The total deaths per head in the UK so far are about 50% more than Brazil. Worldometers suggests that the number of infections in Brazil is about 1 million, and the peak in the UK was 2 million (so six times as high, allowing for difference in population). The only area where Brazil is worse than UK is that their rates are still rising.

Brazil looks (at least to me) to be on the front end of wave #2.

I would revisit that assessment in three months time and see where the numbers have gone.

BBC reporting Denmark halting AZ vaccination programme over blood clots in patients. Surely this would have flagged up before now if a valid issue?

My mums friend in is the hospital now for issues with her blood platelets clotting and very low count, blood clots in her lungs and all over her body which has came up black n’ blue all over, she had the astra Zeneca vaccine in early February and experienced crippling pain in her joints and all over her body since, over the previous few weeks the hospital has ruled out leukaemia with bone marrow.lumbar puncture and she is currently still in hospital getting platelets and plasma by iv. She has suffered from breast cancer a few years ago and was on steroids etc and her immune system was/is somewhat compromised to begin with. So far the consultants at the hospital haven’t a clue as to what is causing the issues which given the hospital/consultants involved is par for the course, they’ve done 3 weeks of testing so far and no diagnoses as to why she is suffering – should this possibility of a reaction to the vaccine be raised with the consultants?.

Before this she was extremely healthy being a hill walker/hiker etc and easily managed 15miles+ a day but now she can barely get out of bed.

It will be hard to prove causality. 1700 people die daily in the uk. Most of them have had the vaccine.

That sounds awful @somafunk, horrible position to be in. I’d definitely mention it to the consultants, even if it’s just so they can put your fears at rest.

Latest study shows it’s not giving protection as hoped in cancer patients using the 12 week gap. Three week gap recommended. Stay safe.

Been on to the phone to my dad about this trying to calm him down. He’s intent on suing the NHS for falsely telling him he’ll be protected by the first jab! It’s his mind going rather than an actual threat, he knows that 80-90% effective means some don’t work but it’s horrible to listen to him say it all the same.

I know someone between first op and first round of treatment. When given the first vaccine jab it was made very clear to her that she should continue to act as if she hadn’t had the jab at all, in terms of shielding for herself and testing to protect others when visiting hospitals. Listen to the professionals treating you, not news headlines.

Listen to the professionals treating you, not news headlines.

Very much this. I was initially told I wouldn’t be offered the jab as the chemo would kill off the antibodies and also potentially any antibodies from my recent Covid infection just before I started treatment. But then a couple of weeks later I was offered the Pfizer jab and went ahead and was told in no uncertain terms they couldn’t guarantee how effective it would be so I should continue to shield. ‘Live’ vaccines are not generally given to people having cancer treatment but as the Covid vaccines are not live the experts have decided it should be given. Bit of a bugger that it’s not that effective, especially for blood cancers.

Sorry to hear of your struggles @shinton 😔

Looking at today’s figures….cases are up by 1000 compared to Tuesday, and up compared to the corresponding day last week too. Is it down to the mass testing in schools?

I went back in today to teach guitar after 51 weeks teaching remotely. It was fantastic, if a little strange!