Sure I read somewhere that more lives have been saved in China thanks to the reduced air pollution, than have been lost due to the coronavirus…

There were still coach loads of grannies being dumped off for a day out in Skipton this week. Be interesting to see if that dries up.

They already have, they don’t call them crusties for nothing

So, the “strategy” is to “flatten the curve” and “delay the peak” etc etc. Can someone tell me what in practice this means? What are we doing that is different from what Italy did before their cases rocketed?

Or is it, you know, just Johnson bullshitting?

The best and most chilling thing I’ve seen on this was the interview on C4 news with an epidemiologist  who compared it to WWII. We’ve heard a lot of romanticising of that recently in relation to brexit, but if he’s right then we’re all going to soon understand what it means. Normal life is over, things are going to change massively and they’re going to stay that way for a while. We can either accept it and start playing our part, or keep our heads in the sand. I know what I’m going to do.

Why UK may not be like Italy

Interesting reading

Wow, you tried hard there, didn’t you? I don’t think anyone has said that before.

About as hard as you tried with the ‘Lemsip will fix it’ TBF.

I prefer that outlook two dogs, but as I’ve kept saying to the milanese meltdown predictors, it’s all pure conjecture at the moment. There simply isn’t the data to predict it. Who ever turns out to be right it’ll be luck not judgement.

The government’s getting a lot of flack for being a “outlier”. If, as has been claimed, they were being cynical bastards, or really didn’t have a clue, they might as well have just done the same as everywhere and avoided the criticisms.

Also, as has been pointed out above, individuals and organisations are already taking a lot of action to slow the spread. All of their own free will and without the need for police roadblocks or troops on the street. The most effective measures will be carried out because individuals think its the right thing to do, not because somebody in authority tells them to.

I’d like to share my experience of having (admittedly untested but more on that later) coronavirus. It may allay some fears, but its left me with a lot of questions.

Thursday last I was in a meeting for 2.5hrs with a guy just back from Austria. He had a constant dry cough and admitted to a temperature. We repeatedly asked him to go home, but he’s the director and refused. I opened all the windows and sat as far away as possible. He was off sick Friday through to middle this week.

Funnily enough Friday evening I started to feel a bit rough, onset of a cold type of thing, achy, and start of a cough. Not too bad over the weekend, went to work Monday, went home Monday afternoon. Monday evening had a temperature, ached all over, hot and cold sweats, constant dry cough. All the symptoms. Felt properly flu-ey, not man-flu.

Did NHS111 online Tuesday morning. Because I’d not had contact with someone from an infected area (Austria was deemed safe then) it jus said to contact my GP. I got a phone consultation, and basically because I don’t have underlying health conditions, hadn’t been abroad and hadn’t been in contact with anyone from an infected area I was told to take paracetamol and drink water. That was it.

I was pretty rough until yesterday when I started feeling much better. I still have the cough but an annoyance now – it had got to the points where my ribs really ached. Bit tired and a bit shrt of breath. I won’t be out riding, but can function normally. So basically 4-5 days of feeling pretty shit. Reckon I’ll be OK for work on Monday.

Now – questions:
Should I be pushing to get tested? BBC are saying not to phone 111 but use the online service as they are inundated. If I’m getting better I don’t want t waste their time. But I want to know if I’m infectious.

Interesting GP wouldn’t confirm I was likely CV-19, but didn’t say not. I though it may just be seasonal flu to start but 5 people from my office are off with same. Symptoms are exact match. My suspicion is they only want to test if you are likely to suffer further ie have underlying conditions. Govt are saying 600 confirmed cases but they suspect 5-10,000 actual. Is this because most peoples experience is like mine, and we are best just left to get on with it?

The key question for me – what now? How long should I self-isolate? I can’t find any official advice about recovery. I’ve been home all week. My wife has no symptoms, my daughter (24) has had very very mild (bit achey, occasional cough). Should they be isolated too? Obviously keen not to pass on to family / colleagues.

Anyway the good(ish) news is if youre 50, average fitness, you’ll get a dose of flu. That’s it. Bit of a pain and a week off work.

Should I be pushing to get tested?

They won’t test you because they aren’t interested in numbers now – it doesn’t help plan any response.

This is the big question for me. Like you I was ill in a normal every day sense, but if I had COVID-19 then how would I know, and how do I know how long I needed to isolate for?

So, the “strategy” is to “flatten the curve” and “delay the peak” etc etc. Can someone tell me what in practice this means? What are we doing that is different from what Italy did before their cases rocketed?

Well, there’s the thing.

The measures being enacted elsewhere are designed to do that too, so who is right?

No one is pretending that they can stop this any more and nor is anyone saying that they are just adopting a ‘let it run wild to get it over with’ approach either.

So the end goals are the same, but we are the outlier.

To my mind that begs questions.

About as hard as you tried with the ‘Lemsip will fix it’ TBF.

but

I was told to take paracetamol and drink water.

Medical advice! Who knew?

You won’t be tested unless you are actually in a hospital bed. Unless you are that ill, the approach won’t be any different. Go home, stay home for a week.

Watch porn, and Netflix

So, the “strategy” is to “flatten the curve” and “delay the peak” etc etc. Can someone tell me what in practice this means? What are we doing that is different from what Italy did before their cases rocketed?

We are nowhere near the exponential rate of cases seen on the epidemic spike at the moment.

If you start measures now, it does nothing except start people’s annoyance early. If you wait until it really ramps up, then it has more of an effect and hopefully keeps the number of cases requiring critical care under the total number of critical care beds.

I’m still planning on schools having an extended Easter Break…

I’m with you… Makes sense and allows exams to, hopefully, take place as normal (or as normal as it can be this year).
Students sent home from Loughborough Uni today I hear due to a confirmed case.
Just waiting to see if daughter #1 is sent back from Leeds.
Big difference between university students being sent home and secondary school though as the uni students can obvs look after themselves
I think Germany has shut uni’s.

Anyway the good(ish) news is if youre 50, average fitness, you’ll get a dose of flu. That’s it.

Sadly that’s not the case (sorry for FB link)

Coronavirus: Your Questions Answered

We were live, answering your questions about the coronavirus pandemic, with Dr Margaret Harris from the World Health Organization, in Geneva.Latest: bbc.in/Coronavirus

Posted by BBC News on Thursday, March 12, 2020

How long should I self-isolate? I can’t find any official advice about recovery. I’ve been home all week.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-people-with-confirmed-or-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection

Why has the advice on self-isolation changed from 14 days to 7 days
The 14 day period is for those who have had exposure to a confirmed case but have not shown symptoms. The 14 days represents the potential incubation period (the time it takes for symptoms to show if you have been infected).

Most people will no longer be likely to transmit the virus 7 days after the onset of symptoms. You do not need to call NHS111 to go into self-isolation. If your symptoms persist past 7 days you should contact NHS 111 online at 111.nhs.uk. If you have no internet access, you should call NHS 111.

but if I had COVID-19 then how would I know, and how do I know how long I needed to isolate for?

Sir whatsisname at the press conference yesterday said the evidence points to the fevery coughy phase being when the infection is passed on. This last about a week hence the government’s new advice on self isolation.

In the absence of any other official advice, I would follow that.

I’m really not sure of the value of self-diagnosing that you’ve had coronavirus. We’re still in flu season, and there’s plenty of colds going around.

Reckon I’ll be OK for work on Monday.

I’m not sure there is enough evidence out there to confidently say you won’t still be contagious at that point, even if all your symptoms were resolved today. I’d personally give myself another seven days after the disappearance of symptoms.

This is the problem when the lack of evidence about a novel virus clashes with the practicalities of work and travel.

They won’t test you because they aren’t interested in numbers now – it doesn’t help plan any response.

We are nowhere near the exponential rate of cases seen on the epidemic spike at the moment.

I’m just quoting these for comparison and consideration.

The problem is that if you don’t know you have had it you will be keeping away from others (elderly loved ones), maybe working at home and general disruptions to social life while all the time you actually had it a few weeks ago and could have carried on with no precautions and no risk of either catching it or passing it on. Would be good to know wouldn’t it?

If it makes you feel better 40mpg the incubation period widely reported is a lot more than Thursday into Friday. That’s likely as good an indication as you’ll get.

Personally I’d still give it 48-72 hours clear of symptoms to reduce your chances of being contagious but also because, even if it’s “just a cold” you don’t want to get something else nasty immediately on top of it, normally, certainly not at the moment – there are also several of accounts of its not bad, it gets better, it’s flu, it gets better, it’s makes flu look a cold*

I am not a doctor

*anecdotal at best but I imagine you’d rather not be an anecdote

whats the consensus on buying bike parts from such as CRC, Wiggle etc. Is there zero risk of transmission. Apologies if this has been done but I have not got the time but have parts on way and wife is Type 1 diebetic.

Even though it’s still cold and flu season look at the well documented symptoms of the virus and err on the side of caution, don’t be full of bravado as that may kill someone else

how do I know how long I needed to isolate for?

Good question!
There’s going to be a lot of people in the same situation as 40mpg (glad you’re feeling better…. First hand experience!) – there needs to be guidance re when it’s safe to go back into circulation.
How long are you infectious for?

whats the consensus on buying bike parts from such as CRC, Wiggle etc. Is there zero risk of transmission. Apologies if this has been done but I have not got the time but have parts on way and wife is Type 1 diebetic.

As at yesterday, 12 hours on cardboard etc, 72 on hard surfaces like metal or plastic

Is there zero risk of transmission.

Put them unopened in the shed, wash your hands straight away… then open them a few days later. What I read was that the virus can only live for a day or so on cardboard, and in amounts that are likely not to result in infection.

The problem is that if you don’t know you have had it you will be keeping away from others (elderly loved ones),

Surely if you have any flu like symptoms you should keep away from vulnerable people until the symptoms have passed? Doesn’t matter if it Covid-19 or not – they’re still vulnerable.

whats the consensus on buying bike parts from such as CRC, Wiggle etc. Is there zero risk of transmission. Apologies if this has been done but I have not got the time but have parts on way and wife is Type 1 diebetic.

The risk is the person handling it and giving it to you as the parts in the box will be safe as the virus won’t live on them long enough. SO same risk as any other things you get via postman, delivered etc,.

Since there is a finite resource on testing.

Is there any form of information gathering on clusters?

Just some central logging of people who are self isolating with similar symptoms. Start to get a cluster and you could test a small sample in the area. Given the guidance is we are more likely to catch it from friends, colleagues… that would point to local clustering. Is this something employers are already providing to government – updates on staff off?

Miracle cure or soft soap?
Don’t all rush.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/from-the-archive-blog/gallery/2020/mar/12/soap-saves-lives-adverts-in-the-guardian-after-the-spanish-flu-outbreak

SO same risk as any other things you get via postman, delivered etc,.

The postman always coughs twice?

Even though it’s still cold and flu season look at the well documented symptoms of the virus and err on the side of caution, don’t be full of bravado as that may kill someone else

I don’t disagree, I just don’t see the point of confidently claiming to have had it, without a test.

The mortality rate for those at higher risk is directly related to how many hospital beds are available. There is a process where the virus attacks the body immune system and send it into overdrive. Cytokine Storm. This is fatal in around 30% of cases based on data we have from the last few years (the syndrome is not COVID 19 specific) – however that data assumes that there was access to medical care. When thousands have the virus and medical care is not available then this will increase hugely. This is also why younger medical professionals are dying even though they are not in higher risk groups normally. They are getting high doses of the virus and this is more likely to cause the syndrome and they are as a group seeking medical help far too late. This has been observed in many other epidemic situations (the seeking help too late, not the syndrome of immune system going into overdrive).

This is how to control it properly:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/how-taiwan-is-containing-coronavirus-despite-diplomatic-isolation-by-china

We are doing almost none of this.

Italy did it too late.

We had the chance and missed it.

Stay home, wear gloves when going out to shop. No need to panic buy, but a sensible amount of food in the cupboard (i.e 2 weeks) seems prudent. Also I have bought Multivits and Vit C tabs in case fresh fruit becomes a bit scarce.

Don’t spend any time you don’t have to in groups. Don’t visit anyone in a high risk group.

I reckon riding bikes outside is fine though!

Can’t believe people are complaint that this has turned I to a conspiracy thread or that people are being politically biased

We have a PM who has based his entire career on lying:
Fired twice for lying, once as a journo, once as a minister
& Lied about:
Heathrow vote
Accuri affair
Releasing Russia report
Proroguing parliament
Asking for an extension
Putting border in Irish sea
String of illegitimate kids & ex- mistress
88% of tory election adds were found to be lies:

Investigation finds ‘88% of Tory ads misleading compared to 0% for Labour’

This is also the government that cut 20,000 hospital beds since 2010
Gifted the NHS its biggest ever staffing crisis

Not to mention that they were warned universal credit was going to be a disaster but pushed it through anyway, causing up to 120,000 extra deaths!

Health and social care spending cuts linked to 120,000 excess deaths in England

Cummings himself has got into trouble over his eugenics comments

On top of that for the last 3 years they have been telling us that we shouldn’t trust experts

On Tuesday gove even said that he didn’t trust the government’s own (economic) modeling (& then poured water over his phone for extra emphasis)

Never mind about the water on the phone. Hilary Benn absolutely skewered him: if Gove didn’t value impact assessments, Benn asked, then why publish 60-pages of one into future US-UK trade? https://t.co/Yqm7XovdY5

— European Simon (@NoRemainNoGain) March 11, 2020

I’d question why anyone would trust either the competency or honesty of our present government!

We are nowhere near the exponential rate of cases seen on the epidemic spike at the moment.

looks at y axis, sees log scale, looks at commets on internets, face palms

Here’s a thought.

Is there a reason the UK govt is so keen on Covid-19 sweeping through the population unchecked?

Could it be anything to do with solving the problem the aged and now unproductive baby boomers cause with the health and welfare resources that have been decimated by a decade of austerity?

Practical eugenics at work?

Sad, but think of all the equity that’s going to be released…

Yes. My 11 year old daughter is not hugely affected, but my 8 year old son is very anxious. He has started turning off media that mention it and leaving rooms where it is mentioned. I can calm him down fairly easily in the moment, but it just comes back again later. Talking him through the numbers and the likelihood of it affecting healthy kids only works to a certain extent.

Cinnamon girl – yes, 1 15yo girl with a sniffly cold and very emotional.

But also an 11yo boy who knows better than all the scientists and doesn’t give a sh#t about using tissues/washing his hands.

They are both cold/sneezy rather than a cough, and absolutely no temperature, so I’m fairly comfortable with them.

Not easy for either of you as you can obviously only expect a child to comprehend. Assuming that there’s all sorts of nonsense being shared in the playground, don’t envy teachers at all.

So I’ve been told that as I’m immunosuppressed I shouldn’t go out of the door. Corrected daughter by saying I’ve a long term bacterial infection (Lyme disease) and that I’d been to Sainsbo’s where I saw plenty of people, especially the elderly on a Thursday. Sharp intake of breath from her then told I must wear gloves if I really must go out in public.

Pretty sure that if I’d had those symptoms I’d be self isolating and/or working from home for 14 days after I felt “better”.

No desire to **** about and risk the health of my friends, colleagues and their loved ones.

The advice, and common sense follow on from that advice, seems pretty obvious to me. The hysteria from colleagues today is making me want to self isolate already!