The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

Here’s a proper conspiracy for you. 🙂

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf+html

TLDR: Some unusual genome content in this coronavirus – some sequences similar to HIV ‘unlikely to be fortuitous in nature’.

and where is the only BSL level 4 high security virus research facility in China? Seems coincidentally close to a certain market in a certain Chinese city.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Tangjiadun+Residential+District+%E5%94%90%E5%AE%B6%E5%A2%A9/Si+Huan+Xian+Chu+Kou,+Jiangxia+Qu,+Wuhan+Shi,+Hubei+Sheng,+China/@30.5218692,114.1905268,11.5z/data=!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x342ea936ab988553:0x595610b555b02fe2!2m2!1d114.268551!2d30.621273!1m5!1m1!1s0x342eb68f4436c7e3:0xf4225979de861592!2m2!1d114.2542247!2d30.4082768

https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487?fbclid=IwAR1MwZCMI7ynjF7zTxjkkoOj0nTZ4e8P4oTeSx5mGDxslrwlyoZRGbgsooA

The paper is interesting, although flawed – will be interesting to see what else pops up as the virologists look at it.

What the actual ****….

Yeah, very interested to see if that conclusion is replicated.

Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag. … "Unlikely to be fortuitous in nature" from science

Published on biorxiv (not peer reviewed).

I’m not sure what they are implying exactly, but maybe that there was genetic exchange between the coronavirus and HIV.

I do not find their analysis convincing at all. The “inserts” that they highlight are the part of the spike protein that makes contact with the host cell. You would expect those to be by far the most variable regions on the protein. They also are taking advantage of the fact that a LOT of HIV has been sequenced and their “inserts” they chose are very small. Lots of chances for false positive matches, low stringency to reject them. They also are on proteins with different functions in HIV. GP120 binds cells, but Gag is the virus structural protein that’s inside the cell.

The inserts spots they chose are completely arbitrary. There are chunks that are effectively not aligned at all with the SARS spike protein, and saying this part or that one in the un-aligned stretch is the insert is arbitrary. If they had aligned with a hundred other coronaviruses you’d probably see that the regions are generally hypervariable and the similarity they used to anchor where the insert was is actually not conserved.

They ignored at least one other significant region that’s very different from SARS. Why? Probably because they couldn’t get a low quality match to HIV there.

I think we need to wait before we decide the Chinese have released a weaponized virus.

These short inserts do indeed exist in #nCoV2019 relative to its closest sequenced relative (BetaCoV/bat/Yunnan/RaTG13/2013, seen here https://t.co/Qz2zmZD5yS). However, a simple BLAST of such short sequences shows match to a huge variety of organisms. No reason to conclude HIV. https://t.co/HnOWB5OQi4 pic.twitter.com/mUfxwB6GsP

— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) January 31, 2020

Just woken up with symptoms of a cold.  😱

Me too Kryton 😕

If either of you have small framed bikes I’ll happily come and collect in my biohaz suit as you’ll no longer be needing them…

So this is interesting because I need to – late next week – travel to the US for work.   What’s gong to happen if I turn up at check in with an obvious cold?

Beep beep beep… breaking news:

Australia have just banned any non-Aus citizen (plus a few other exceptions) visitors from mainland China.

New academic year starts in a couple of weeks – university of Syd was expecting about 20-30,000 new undergrads to arrive from China. Whoops.

So on the conspiracy theory front…  there’s a photo doing the rounds on social media showing that written on the back of a liquid Dettol bottle, Dettol destroys Coronavirus.   So it’s neither new, unknown, or indefensible.

The coronavirus family has been around for a very long time- some variants are one of the viruses that cause the common cold.

When the words “novel coronavirus” appear on the back of a Dettol bottle, that’ll be a worry.

A lot of coronaviruses originate in bats, there has been an ongoing research project to identify them and to develop means to protect against them. Unfortunately, said research has been cut back since the SARS outbreak, in a typical ‘out of sight, out of mind’ mindset that humans are sadly prone to.
We don’t need stupid conspiracy bullshit trying to connect HIV with things like the coronavirus, when it’s almost certain that both are zoonotic anyway, and that there are people with an almost pathological desire to kill and eat any damned thing regardless of whether it’s worth eating!
https://www.inverse.com/science/scientists-saw-coronavirus-coming-warning-us-for-decades

I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but I’m struggling to get past the fact that the scientist in that article issuing the warning about a virus outbreak of this type work in Wuhan.

I was out and about in central London today and there was a surprisingly large amount of people wearing medical face masks

Zero hedge have apparently found the culprit.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic

Quiet quiet today in the local main city and town not to far from Arrowe park,

I think we need to wait before we decide the Chinese have released a weaponized virus

”…on their own people”!

Well, it’s not like they have a shortage of people and their military strategy is all about wave assaults…

Saw my first mask wearing person today in central Stockholm. A child at school. I have not checked to see whether surgical masks are generally available to people.

Sorry to bump this, but I have a question.

If someone in a quarantine area, (one of those cruise ships or Arrowe Park hospital for example) gets infected 12 days into the 14 day period, does the clock re-start for everyone else just in case they’ve spread it? The news items I’ve seen about it definitely doesn’t show people individually holed up.

Here’s a proper conspiracy for you. 🙂

The conspiracy theories have already gone full swing in the far east.

Sorry to bump this, but I have a question.

If someone in a quarantine area, (one of those cruise ships or Arrowe Park hospital for example) gets infected 12 days into the 14 day period, does the clock re-start for everyone else just in case they’ve spread it? The news items I’ve seen about it definitely doesn’t show people individually holed up.

Was thinking the same, the clock should really reset

Here we go.

I can’t see it being contained here. People are too mobile, and probably too pig-headed to take any precautions. S’ok though, I’m sure we can all trust in the safe hands of Matt Hancock. Wonder how many hospitals we can build in 10 days?

My friends were in Finland to see the northern lights. The place they stayed had 4 hotels. A chinese person was confirmed with the virus and had visited 3 of the hotels.

My friends developed stinking colds. To return to the UK they had a coach journey to the airport , a flight then a train journey in the Uk.

They were then told to quarantine themselves for a week at home.

Door,bolt,horse.

Following on from dazh above…..https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51447761
Alcohol containing handgel and disinfectant now on the shopping list; over-reaction? Possibly.

The government must now know that containment is impossible (at least not without basically **** the economy). So measures like self-isolation, which reduce but do not prevent spread, are seeking to move back the point at which the impact on the NHS increases significantly, perhaps by a month or so, so it’s not running concurrently with normal winter pressures.

Unfortunately, the NHS is not known for having much extra capacity, even out of flu season.

The cruise ship situation is mental, though. Isolation should mean proper isolation, not allowing them to mingle and effectively reset the clock for everyone with every new case that emerges. Some of those poor buggers will be stuck on there for months at this rate.

Given that they were also reporting a 20% mortality rate in hte worst affected chinese province I’m not sure anything is an over-reaction! Althouh more conseravtive estimates are between 3-5%

Its only going to keep spreading unless there are global travel restrictions. Sounds insane but if it really is 20% mortality, insane measures might make sense.

Sounds insane but if it really is 20% mortality, insane measures might make sense.

It’s not. There is still no clear picture of how many people are getting it, not getting all that ill, and not seeking medical attention, so mortality is going to be much lower than initial reports suggested.

But the lower end of your conservative estimate is still pretty alarming.

Its only going to keep spreading unless there are global travel restrictions. Sounds insane but if it really is 20% mortality, insane measures might make sense.

There’s a fun little game you can play on mobile caled “Plague inc”.

If you want your virus to destroy the world (in the game obvs), it has to be a low level danger for a while so it spreads easily until you get it to mutate into something nasty. Ideally, you want something where the corpses are still contagious.

Kicking off properly in Brighton now

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18223764.coronavirus-brighton-live-updates-four-new-cases/

Patients of a GP who tested positive for coronavirus are being urgently traced.

Her surgery was closed this morning, almost two weeks after she returned from skiing holiday with the man at the centre of the Brighton cases.

I’m beginning to get a bit uncomfortable. 3 out of our 4 kids work in the NHS and I stay for some of most weeks in a hotel where there are always Chinese guests and Singapore Airline staff. This morning I used the stairs rather than the lift and gave a wide berth to a group of orientals at breakfast. Being over 60 could be a chink in my armour, I sincerely hope not.

Sounds like the cruise passengers are getting a couple of months of free cruise!
Can you catch it again if you’ve had it before?

I’m beginning to get a bit uncomfortable. 3 out of our 4 kids work in the NHS and I stay for some of most weeks in a hotel where there are always Chinese guests and Singapore Airline staff. This morning I used the stairs rather than the lift and gave a wide berth to a group of orientals at breakfast. Being over 60 could be a chink in my armour, I sincerely hope not.

erm, nah. Not going to do it.

Sounds like the cruise passengers are getting a couple of months of free cruise!
Can you catch it again if you’ve had it before?

A couple of months! not sure I could think of much worse, I’d rather be dead……oh…

erm, nah. Not going to do it.

😀

Sounds like the cruise passengers are getting a couple of months of free cruise dock!

Can you catch it again if you’ve had it before?

I guess if it circulates for long enough it may mutate into a fresh strain, like flu does. Research suggests that an ‘All You Can Eat’ buffet is actually the perfect substrate to promote viral replication.

Well, I’m still groggy after first being a snotty lump two weeks ago. Thought I had got over it, until Saturday when I was properly bunged up again.

Maybe it is mutating!

(was at a trade fair with lots of Chinese exhibitors two weeks ago, my work colleague goes through Stockdorf (the area near Munich with the confirmed cases) everyday on the train and I know one guy who lays basketball with one of the people who had been quarantined)…

‘All You Can Eat’ buffet is actually the perfect substrate to promote viral replication.

I guess that goes for buffet breakfasts as well? Deary me, if the virus doesn’t get me starvation might.

Just seen on the Guardian that a school in Southampton has been evacuated after pupils who’d visited an affected area came down with the symptoms. Fingers crossed that its just a flu/cold; but I feel for all the parents, you’d be bricking it for your kids!

It’s loose everywhere, I really think its horse, door, stabled, bolted by now.  Better stock up on lemsip and decongestants.  With a 14 day incubation period how many carriers are going to to work, school, on the train, plane or bus?

Latest rumour mongering I see is that the Pangolin could be the carrier, if so its having the last laugh!

I’m going with the theory that its a man altered virus created by the CIA and released in China too wreck their economy but with usual SNAFU CIA planning they failed to see it would “escape” into the rest of the world.

I’m going with the slightly more boring theory that it’s a transfer from another species with no deliberate human conspiracy.

Either way, it’s loose. How far it goes remains to be seen. The only method of stopping transmission seems to be lockdown and quarantine and nobody here has the political balls to do what China has done (plus, that doesn’t seem to have stopped it anyway) and we’re “a bit” past patient #1 now.

Got to admit, this thing is probably in a viral sweet spot. Rather transmissive, not massive fatality rate, etc. Could keep on circulating for years…

The only method of stopping transmission seems to be lockdown and quarantine…

…and the first thing we did was repatriate people from the source country…