I would think that children are highly likely to be asymptomatic carriers. My guess is that there isn’t enough data on this currently to provide a compelling argument either way.

We’ll see if there is a change in the curves a couple of weeks after half-term.

It was crass in the extreme to hear rabid, free market Tories suddenly, and for the first time, championing the interests of the poor and dispossessed youth as a means of justifying a ‘reopening’ of the economy. Remember this was at the same time as B. Johnson was chastising civil servants for working from home while urging us all to ‘eat out to help out’. The current cabinet would not recognise ‘nobility’ if it smacked them in the face.

There’s no good choice but the kids are quite literally the future.

Which is why focussed random testing in schools to mitigate the risks to staff is necessary. That or rotate year groups to allow some distancing. Had the gov not just shoved its thumb up its arse all summer and did some planning things could have been worked out

Missing 1 year of school for 4 year old from a disadvantaged background could be life changing just as much as CV19 could be for an older person.

Or losing a parent to a deadly virus.

It was crass in the extreme to hear rabid, free market Tories suddenly, and for the first time, championing the interests of the poor and dispossessed youth as a means of justifying a ‘reopening

Just because they’re tories doesn’t mean everything they do is wrong. Sure they get loads wrong but I’m struggling to see this as one of them.

Or losing a parent to a deadly

That’s a very small risk for people with school age kids. The risk difference by age group is astounding

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26#deaths

Or losing a parent to a deadly virus

You make it sound like the disease on the film Contagion where everyone drops dead at infection.

That’s a very small risk for people with school age kids.

What about staff in schools?

What about staff in schools?

Don’t take this the wrong way, but is there any data regarding teachers being infected at schools? Totally anecdotally, the first two infections at the schools my kids go to were teachers who were contact traced as having picked it up outside of school. Despite several kids testing positive since, no more staff have tested positive in this half term.

I know that there are cynics who state opening schools was purely an economic exercide, and I absolutely agree that the lack of government planning and support has been truly shocking, but reopening schools was a totally laudable aim. It’s made a massive difference to my two (aged 13 and 17). But it’s only worked because their schools have put in a colossal amount of time and money to make it work.

Is there any evidence teachers are facing an intolerable risk from covid? I haven’t seen any. Other worker groups in the UK have annual risk of death 10, 100 or even 1000 times more than teachers at the best of time so honestly I’d say suck it up.

TomD – the problem is the Tories don’t give 2 hoots about underprivileged kids. They wanted kids back in school so their parents could get back to work, period.

Calling something Covid Secure doesn’t make it so.

Don’t take this the wrong way, but is there any data regarding teachers being infected at schools?

No idea, I seem to recall the data for kids, school staff and Unis was all lumped together so that drawing conclusions was impossible.

Anecdotally I know three teachers who appear to have caught it in school, and one of them is my partner but then I know a lot of teachers.

Totally anecdotally, the first two infections at the schools my kids go to were teachers who were contact traced as having picked it up outside of school

That doesnt mean a lot, its just known link, correlation not cause.

Is there any evidence teachers are facing an intolerable risk from covid?

How many other workers are spending an hour with 30 people in a small room five or six times a day?
If , as Tired postulated kids and schools a big vectors it would seem inconcievable that school staff are not at increased risk.

Other worker groups in the UK have annual risk of death 10, 100 or even 1000 times more than teachers at the best of time so honestly I’d say suck it up.

So what do you do for work oh brave one? IT consultant?

But it’s only worked because their schools have put in a colossal amount of time and money to make it work.

Very little money, schools dont have any

Bit of science. NIOSH, part of the CDC have consistently identified teaching as a risk profession for influenza

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0048806

The most likely reason they have not to date, is that schools were down on occupancy during lockdown. I won’t say closed. But the numbers of contacts was low enough to control spread in schools in a way it is not now.

Oh and forget HCQ prophylaxis. A preclinical study showed no effect in two animal models where both vaccines and antibodies work.

Isn’t this the same reason the NHS want their staff to take the flu jab each year?

They don’t want staff to infect vulnerable patients but on a mundane level it’s assuring that resources are available throughout winter when they are needed. The NHS commissioners even set targets for this and attach extra funding to it as a dangling carrot.

We have the highest flu vaccine take up in the world. It sadly does not mitigate the world class healthcare service we don’t seem to have as well as it does in some other countries that record lower excess mortality.

I have it annually

I’ve had the flu jab for the last few years via work. When I first did it it was because it was free and I didn’t want to get sick – cos I’m a selfish git – but the last couple of years I’ve been very aware that it’s more about protecting others. Sadly whilst I can get it through work I’m well down the hierarchy of those who need it, and rightly so.

All-cause mortality has been bumping along at the maximum of the past 10-year range. Week 42 shows an acceleration (that’s for week-ending 11 days ago). It’s not hard to predict where Week 43 will be. Under 23/100k would be a success by year end.

Ignore the dip at Week 36. Bank holiday was a week later this year compared to 9/10 of the previous 10 years.

Bit of science. NIOSH, part of the CDC have consistently identified teaching as a risk profession for influenza

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0048806

That link says that teachers are low risk doesnt it? Unless I’m reading it wrong, it does reference other work that says the opposite though I think….only skimmed a few bits.

Why are councils agreeing to Tier 3 without insisting there is a clearly articulated exit plan?
Those councils/areas which have followed GM should have taken their lead from Andy Burnham – prepared to work with central gov but there must be a plan, including how to return to lower level.
S Yorkshire agreed to T3 and then, after the event, asked the question.
Warrington did the same.
This morning, Nottingham are doing the same.
It’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that many councils are either running scared of central gov or lack competence.

It’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that many councils are either running scared of central gov or lack competence.

it’s probably a bit of both

Some sobering stats from my local hospital (Warrington). Under normal circumstances has 500 beds and 20 in ICU, current COVID inpatients are 118 with 16 in ICU. Think the peak in spring was just over 120 (for some reason we seemed to be fairly lightly hit back then).

Makes me laugh (well sort of!) when people suggest too much of a fuss is being made of COVID, dread to think what those numbers would be without some restrictions in place.

What’s the deal with the massive dip in Week52 in that graph, TiRed?

Nobody does recording over the Christmas week and then it all catches up during weeks 1 and 2.

Some sobering stats from my local hospital (Warrington). Under normal circumstances has 500 beds and 20 in ICU, current COVID inpatients are 118 with 16 in ICU. Think the peak in spring was just over 120 (for some reason we seemed to be fairly lightly hit back then).

So you’re essentially at the spring peak already…?

I’d guess lack of reporting.

What’s the deal with the massive dip in Week52 in that graph, TiRed?

gonna guess at the bloke whose job it is to records deaths doesnt work xmas to new year, and then spends the first 2 weeks of january catching up.

death has christmas off, obviously.

@klunk – he’s still working but filling in for The Hogfather rather than his normal job

I guess I knew that was the answer rather than it being a real effect, it just seems so primitive to be unable to back-date the data to the actual date of death.

So you’re essentially at the spring peak already…?

Yes, in terms of inpatients, which is at least a fairly absolute measure. For whatever reason the spring wave seemed fairly light here, but cases have been high for weeks now (Tier 3 from yesterday)

Other worker groups in the UK have annual risk of death 10, 100 or even 1000 times more than teachers at the best of time so honestly I’d say suck it up.

Well this is shitty.

People who take risky jobs usually know that they are risky and that often forms part of their decision. Teaching is not normally that risky, but they are being forced to accept more risk than they originally signed up for.

I have a question that we were discussing earlier: why is it that South Wales seems to be worse affected than the UK in general when our lockdown was stricter, lasted longer and we started local lockdowns sooner?

My thoughts were:
A) we are doing better at testing
B) environmental factors (lots of close together low income housing, less chance to work at home (compared to the SE))
C) chance – a few super spreading events bearing fruit.

Any thoughts or explanation from the more knowledgeable?

Think TiRed mentioned the reporting is suspected cases vs confirmed cases, so the numbers are higher (and less accurate, such as any of the UK’s case numbers could be considered accurate).

All of those things you mentioned plus there are a lot of people that travel to work in London every day or during the week. Add in a generally unwell population and the geography of the Valleys making everyone flow in narrow travel corridors to their work in Swansea/Cardiff/Newport and you have a ready-made route for the virus to spread quickly all over South Wales.

There was lots of talk early on linking COVID hotspots to pollution (globally) . Has there been any further study into this?

There was lots of talk early on linking COVID hotspots to pollution (globally) . Has there been any further study into this?

Presumably a ‘pollution concentration’ map overlayed with a ‘population density’ map would look pretty similar? Not saying pollution isn’t a factor, but it could be quite easy to draw the wrong conclusions from a pollution map in isolation.

it does reference other work that says the opposite though I think

Yes it was just an under-powered pilot from NIOSH. They fully back protection of teachers. Probably should have chosen a better study!

As for the Christmas dip… well I imagine Father Christmas is beating Death back. Or the registrars have a holiday too. My cousin is one of them. I think she’s having a break 😉

Re: pollution, the discussion many months ago was around towns in Spain and Italy with narrow pollute streets combined with the prevalence of smoking across all age groups, multi-generational households, small concrete apartment blocks with poor ventilation

It’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that many councils are either running scared of central gov or lack competence

Or they looked at what happened in Manchester – they locked down later without really getting what they wanted, and thought they’d take what they could and lock down ASAP?

Burnham made a stand and fair play to him for that, he had sound logic, but one wonders what the cost was…

And the Lombardy region of Italy is a bowl in the hills where smog/pollution can get trapped. It is also the industrial area.

I can’t remember the source, but there were definite links made.

Apparently all of Nottinghamshire now going into Tier 3. Suspect those of us already at Tier 2 just over the border will be next.