Schools back 3 weeks earlier up here, would be the obvious one…

The problem with making many changes at the same time is that it’s nigh on impossible to correlate any impacts. Hopefully, the T&T information is still leading ScotGovs thinking, in which case the house visits thing has still been the main driver (or they are lying).

…..was my first thought also. Do Scottish unis also start earlier?

Unis in the England go back mid-to-late September. The upturn is earlier, and I can’t see any acceleration post school return. I’d welcome any other input. I hope to see the Tier 2/3 effects feed in in a week or so. Deaths are pretty predictable from these curves as sqrt(sqrt(admissions))x(admissions/20) across all regions and nations except Wales. Even from the lowest levels like London, SE and SW, which are bumping along at low absolute numbers.

256 admissions/day is about 50 deaths per day (range 33-75) in a week’s time.

All my various elderly relatives are ignoring the rules as far as I can tell.

At the start, I and my sisters would remonstrate with them, but they’ve proven us wrong.

how have they proven you wrong? People ignoring the rules is why we’re in such a mess!! If everyone was following the rules we’d still be able to go out to the pub etc sensibly but we’d have a much better outlook? Or are they just saying, well everyone else is doing it so we will too?! (Not a great attitude for obvs reasons!)

Hmm – maybe after a nice summer where things seemed vaguely under control and the “eat out to catch Covid” scheme, people were just going back to old habits. The younger members of my cricket team certainly were.

Oldnpastit- that video interview at the start is good.

I’d imagine the intensity of the sun will finish sooner up north (as well as the whole intense sun season duration being much shorter compared to the English south coast), that would be strong enough to produce Vitamin D on exposed skin.

Lower levels of VitD are believed to increase the risk of serious Covid symptoms, so admissions spiked upwards sooner in Scotland, followed by northern England?

I’d imagine the intensity of the sun will finish sooner up north (as well as the whole intense sun season duration being much shorter compared to the English south coast),

Quite apart from the Vit D thing, there’s also a question of just how pleasant/unpleasant it is to be sitting outdoors. It’s quite possible that cooler temperatures drove folk in Scotland and N England indoors.

All my various elderly relatives are ignoring the rules as far as I can tell.

At the start, I and my sisters would remonstrate with them, but they’ve proven us wrong.

Really? How have they proved you wrong? Are infection rates dropping nationally?

People ignoring the rules is why we’re in such a mess!!

Actually, I think this is unlikely. I think the majority follow the rules just fine. But the fact is that when you add school returns into the mix of all the other rules, there is not a large enough reduction in transmission. Clearly this is a feature not a bug, and it means balancing education and the economy is harder than first thought.

The Menu:
Schools open, businesses open, work from office = epidemic doubles every three days
Schools closed, businesses closed, work from home = epidemic halves every 21 days
Schools closed, businesses part open, work from home = epidemic stable
Schools open, businesses part open, work from home = epidemic doubles every two weeks
…

not very appetizing.

On the subject of vitamin D, I don’t know why the govt aren’t recommending people take this as a prophylactic to guard against Covid and also high dose IV vit D given given to anyone admitted to hospital.

The small pilot study below showed only 2% of patients given IV vitamin D on hospital admission for Covid progressed to ICU, vs 50% of patients who weren’t given vit D. None of the patients taking vit D died.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764

Small numbers in the study I know, but pretty startling results. Surely for something so cheap and risk free they should be jumping on this.

Maybe the fact it is so cheap and doesn’t have patents associated with it means drug companies aren’t interested in pushing it.

Interesting graphic

On the subject of vitamin D, I don’t know why the govt aren’t recommending people take this

PHE advise is everyone takes 10 micrograms?

The Menu:
Schools open, businesses open, work from office = epidemic doubles every three days
Schools closed, businesses closed, work from home = epidemic halves every 21 days
Schools closed, businesses part open, work from home = epidemic stable
Schools open, businesses part open, work from home = epidemic doubles every two week

Google tells me that hasn’t been published anywhere. If it has please let me know where and if it hasn’t and you have evidence to back it up please publish!

A crèche/school is once again the centre of a cluster locally:

https://www.larepubliquedespyrenees.fr/2020/10/23/covid-19-une-creche-municipale-de-pau-fermee-sept-jours,2750353.php

PHE advise is everyone takes 10 micrograms?

I think that’s a general recommendation in place before Covid. It’s also a fairly low dose. I’ve been taking 50ug for the last few months.

I think that’s a general recommendation in place before Covid. It’s also a fairly low dose. I’ve been taking 50ug for the last few months.

No they used to advise at risk groups take it in the winter, they changed it a few months to everyone take it all year as part of a covid update

On the subject of vitamin D, I don’t know why the govt aren’t recommending people take this

They claim there’s insufficient evidence.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/insufficient-evidence-for-vitamin-d-preventing-or-treating-artis

All I know is that if it’s good enough for Donald Trump, then it’s good enough for me….

Clearly this is a feature not a bug, and it means balancing education and the economy is harder than first thought.

How much of the schools being open won’t impact was wishful thinking? Just using the unsound barometer of social media it seemed to be a lot of people making some strong claims this virus was going to behave differently in a school setting. Not just the public making statements but media coverage being shared.

They claim there’s insufficient evidence.

That report is nearly 4 months old now and I recall the NICE study was critised for not reviewing all the latest evidence at the time.

was wishful thinking?

Probably quite a bit. I often say, wanting something is not the same as having evidence to support it. I want mass cross-reactive T-cell immunity to manifest itself in reduced spread. I don’t see evidence. I want children not to spread infection. OK, they don’t clog the hospitals – as they do with influenza – but they do get the infection. Perhaps they do pass it on, just like other asymptomatic viral infections.

I think targetting the maintenance of an open education system is a worthy primary objective. Balancing healthcare with that may be a challenge. Eating out perhaps the first casualty.

On the subject of vitamin D, I don’t know why the govt aren’t recommending people take this as a prophylactic to guard against Covid and also high dose IV vit D given given to anyone admitted to hospital.

Its already a piece of standing advice that if you live in a cooler climate (or have darker skin) you should take Vic D. Its not so much that it has any miracle cure ability its more than a deficiency is a problem in its own right an makes you vulnerable to adverse during any kind of infection not just covid. When we talk about underlying health conditions…. a vitamin deficiency is an underlying health condition. Reducing that deficiency across the population removes one of those co-morbidites. But taking more than enough vitamin d won’t make you in some way extra resistant to disease.

In a sense its not being ‘pushed’ as its not new news. The message to take vitamins has been out there so long we don’t notice it. But I wish it had been discussed more when the issue of race and vulnerability to covid was in the media. There will of course be a whole host of social, political and economic factors relating BAME vulnerability to covid but we can’t just undo them all overnight.  But in the US for instance, 80% of the BAME population have a vid d deficiency and while you can’t undo the the damaging consequences of slavery and segregation tomorrow you can say ‘take vitamin D, especially if you have dark skin’ and in all probability save some lives – across the board not just in relation to covid.

An interesting bit of research for anyone considering flying (even with a mask):

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.42.2001624#html_fulltext

and for anyone who fancied the Swedish model:

https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

Yes, there seemed to be a lot of “aren’t the Swedes being brave and successful” at the start, and now we know why it went quiet.

Not seeing much about the reaction of the Swedish people to the situation? Are they outraged at their government or are they resigned nationally to what could be considered an unnecessary but pragmatic situation? (In no way am I suggesting it’s the right approach, to be clear)

Rumours doing the rounds around the north west is that we’ll be going into ‘Tier 4’ next week, whatever that entails. Matt Hancock pretty much confirming that just now…

Asked if ministers are preparing to introduce a new Tier 4, Matt Hancock tells @BBCBreakfast: 'We rule nothing out"

— John Stevens (@johnestevens) October 26, 2020

We look forward to ‘Tier 27’ by Christmas where we all have to be shrink-wrapped then encased in concrete, while still being required to go to work

Yes, there seemed to be a lot of “aren’t the Swedes being brave and successful” at the start, and now we know why it went quiet.

Not seeing much about the reaction of the Swedish people to the situation? Are they outraged at their government or are they resigned nationally to what could be considered an unnecessary but pragmatic situation? (In no way am I suggesting it’s the right approach, to be clear)

I think a lot of people here have acknowledged that things could have been done differently both at the start of the epidemic (to protect more people in vulnerable situations) and now. Certainly Tegnell has said that and he is leading our response.

As for the average person… Well, a lot of the people here (Stockholm) are carrying on as normal. Maybe these are mostly the younger ones that do not think they will be affected much/at all by an infection. People _have_ changed behaviour though and there are obvious protections in place around the city for people working in it. I can’t comment on public transport (hate the stuff and use my bike if I have to commute), but a lot of people I know are avoiding it.

I live in Stockholm. I work from home. I do, however, go into the office when I have to and there are very obvious measures in place to encourage social distancing. People do ignore them and that is there choice. If you are in a situation and someone is too close, asking them to “håller avstånd” does work and people will back off. Generally though, you are given space..

As for out of the city, the Time article does give some indication that things are not going so well. The Uppsala outbreak they mention is real, but is centred around Uppsala hospital, even though cases are rising in the city itself. Dalarna is a county, and a sparsely populated one at that, so any rise is concerning and likely to be a localised outbreak in, say, Borlänge or Falun or somewhere big.

The problem now is winter. It is already cold and a lot of people do not have the stomach to take bikes or scooters on their commute. Subway and bus will get more crowded and people will start avoiding outside areas in restaurants and bars. This doesn’t really impact me or a lot of people in my social group (such as it is), but it could present a challenge for other people that are younger and have a social life.

Thanks Willard. Always interesting to hear other people’s real world experience. Stay safe over there!

while still being required to go to workWetherspoons

FTFY

Indeed. Wetherspoons will be the only business classified by the government as essential and allowed to remain open. Every citizen will then be released from their sealed bunkers and mandated to go and eat a chicken korma and drink a pint of Fosters, twice a week, whether they like it or not.

Tier 27’ by Christmas where we all have to be shrink-wrapped then encased in concrete, while still being required to go to work

And schools still open.

MoreCash, no worries. There are at least three of us over here, with at least one of us up in the mountains probably enjoying early snow and not the crappy rain that seems to be infesting the city has right now…

it really is a strange time. A lot of businesses are enabling working from home and that is leading to a lot mental health issues, especially as the darkness sets in. To be honest, the hardest parts of all this were changing jobs just after it all started and not getting a chance to meet my team for a long time. I left a good group of people at my last place and then just spent months talking to people on Slack or Teams. Summer, I think, saved me from going mad or more fully into depression. Nothing like skydiving to remind you of priorities. I still don’t see my team or boss often enough though.

+1 exiled in Sweden! 😁
With relaxed guidance here for the over 70’s, we’ll wait and see what effect that has on the infection/hospital/death numbers.
I don’t think any review of the different Covid pandemic strategies will be relevant, until at least in a few years time.

Well dammit! Now there are four of us!

Nice photo of Dougal and Fr Jack above.

Every citizen will then be released from their sealed bunkers and mandated to go and eat a chicken korma and drink a pint of Fosters,

As if we haven’t suffered enough!

the hardest parts of all this were changing jobs just after it all started and not getting a chance to meet my team

I changed jobs in September, no face to face meetings as yet, all training is online, it’s a really weird and shit way to start a new job!

Whilst Sweden has provided a limited counterfactual, I am afraid that the phenotype of virus behaviour just does not care for nationality. I see little to distinguish Sweden from elsewhere. The other Scandinavian countries are in a better place to protect their citizens as they have effective tracing and maintained low absolute numbers. They are almost certainly under no allusions that spread will increase and deaths follow without controls.

I know people want to believe the let-it-pass, herd immunity, T-cell cross reactive protection, relatively mild infection, low IFR, mantra. And so do I! But belief needs testable hypotheses. What happens when you let the brakes off? Immunity still protective? Or exponential increases in transmission.

At the moment, it universally looks like the latter. Everywhere. The degree is dependent on the starting levels. But those are the (nonlinear) rules. They suck to be honest. Sweden is nothing special in my view I am afraid to say. As time passes I am sure others will see things the same.

Had a busy weekend with regional data, so updated the predictions using NHS regional level data. Then used the simple rule of 6 (deaths in 7 days = admissions today/6) at this level to compound up to look at how well the data is predicted (not modelled) at regional and Nation level. Quite pleased with the outcome. Previous predictions have not changed and a week later, the 7-day death rolling mean deaths are as expected. The difference is that the blue lines are NOT fits to data, they are predictions from the red admissions.

Interesting to see the Wales graph, does that mean you have taken into account their lockdown ?

Any positive news would be appreciated too 👍

@TiRed yeah, I now that and, to be honest, a lot of other people do too. I should read more of the local media to see if i can communicate that a bit more here. It would also, I think, make me a little more focussed on what is happening where I live rather than where I came from.

As I see it, the only advantage that we have here is a relatively small population spread out over a relatively large country. We also have a lot of single user abodes in the major population centres, but the fact remains that Stockholm is a very heavily populated area and those are great for spreading contagious diseases. Living in the middle of it, even if I work from home and stay away from people when I go out means that I am resigned to “when”, not “if” at this point. Being blunt, that scares the shit out of me, not as much for me getting ill, but in case I am asymptomatic and I, despite taking precautions, give it to someone else that gets seriously ill or dies.

Wales is an exception, largely because they count suspected not confirmed COVID19 admissions. the relationship with mortality is quite different I am afraid, and I sadly consider the data unreliable.

So Nottingham is belatedly going to Tier 3, now positive tests are about a third of the numbers a fortnight ago 🤦‍♂️

Our club is based just outside the restricted area, a few Tier 3 members are trying to figure out if they can meet up at the cafe stops.