The testing system is not fit for purpose; there is a major disconnect between drive through test availability as per the Deloitte system and the reality at sites.
There is a clear refusal by johnson and his acolytes to acknowledge the failings and then rapidly develop and clearly communicate a remedial action plan.
I’m still waiting for johnson to clearly state the gov’s objective(s); whatever it is/they are and, more importantly, their plan on how to deliver.
The UK has an under-resourced police force which was over-stretched pre-Covid so they won’t cope with the additional responsibilities johnson has dumped on them.
Increasing the fines for individuals to a starting point of £1,000 would cause some to, possibly, think twice.
We’re now at a point where, I believe, it would be appropriate to broadcast ads showing a (staged) Covid death.
I think we’re past the point where nudge theory has any place in managing this.
I rarely agree with Edukator but…

the fear has gone, and testing can’t replace it.

is undeniably true.

As for johnson’s national address – he needs a speechwriter to provide clear focus and he most definitely needs a voice coach; he’s not auditioning so the verbal flourishes and odd inflections are unnecessary and distract from the message.
Cut out the verbiage; KISS; deepen your voice – think Thatcher.
Learn from Sturgeon’s presentational style – and her willingness to be interviewed.

Can people living in England go to North Wales for the weekend if they are camping (in a self contained unit)?

And I would use prospective weekly testing in schools, healthcare facilities and the workplaces most at risk. Not simply a symptom scattergun. You go systematic, organised, prospective and pooled in groups who will be affected. You can add mobile test sites for the general population, but this will achieve relatively little for control.

The media really need to do better… the balance hunt on Newsnight tonight was to have a businessman repeat the line, several times, that COVID deaths are only 1% of all deaths in the UK this year. Matlis doesn’t try and correct him once, and there wasn’t a guest to put the ‘opposite opinion’ that the 1% figure is utter bobbins.

Agree with that completely TiRed… so you meant that testing isn’t a tool to reduce the use of or shorten the length of isolation periods for the general public, and that it should be used in just that way in schools (as it already is in hospitals etc), yes?

No, it IS 1% (15/1500 per day). But he seems to have forgotten that it was 40% six months ago. Hmmm thats 2^(5 or 6) or about two months time in old money.

He was talking about this year, not this week. For the year so far it is 10%… and he was arguing against using social distancing measures to control the spread… he was arguing for not restricting the spread, just letting it rip if you like.

And yes, testing is a tool for control of spread for those most likely to cause spread and those most likely to be affected by spread. It’s not for the general public. Sorry, isolation based on symptom tracking is the means to that end and shown to be effective. The KC app is good for that.

That should have been the message.

Apologies, I checked on iPlayer and he said ‘currently 1%’, so he was correct, just selective.

Agree with you completely on testing, now I understand what you’re saying. And that is how the government portrayed the testing would be used for the return to schools. They shifted that messaging to ‘anyone with symptoms’ before they had proven they could make school opening work though, and now (surprise surprise) it’s a mess. I think that they took their eye off what they had promised for schools, because they got over excited about reassuring all those parents to get back to their offices by offering them the testing that should have been focused on schools (as well as care homes and hospitals etc). Or perhaps their believed their own spin about “Testing Capacity” so thought that they could do it all…

Scroll down to The Daily Star’s front page; a continuation of johnson being portrayed as Coco the Clown.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-54259256

Just reading the news from the UK….. and…. well…. whut?

He’s gaslighting the entire nation

In Stafford – King Eddies – 1 Year9 pupil tested+, whole Year9 ‘bubble’ sent home to isolate for 14days.

10 teachers in contact with pupil also sent home.

Headteacher with huge problem.

Headteacher with huge problem.

Wont be the only one and in a week or two it will get worse.

Learn from Sturgeon’s presentational style – and her willingness to be interviewed.

somewhat difficult to do as IMO Sturgeon actually understands and listens to the science, spends time getting on top of what is happening and her “style” is based on understanding what the person in the street is feeling and her confidence she is doing the right thing for the right reasons. she is also far smarter than Johnson

You then isolate a class on a single positive.

That stopped last week here in primary schools, now only the infected kid is sent home. On the way to school kids stop at least 50m before the school, have a chat, put their masks on then continue their way in. In school the kids play the game, Madame says non have taken their masks off when they shouldn’t, but they eat lunch in the canteen masks off. It’s good humoured people play the game whilst finding the contradictions comic. They know they’re playing lip service to measures that aren’t working and won’t work unless you put a gendarme behind every citizen 24/7.

People were really cautious here through the first wave, I think they’ve become fatalistic now, in fact I know my social bubble has. We know a vaccine is a very long way off, herd immunity even further off and there’s a real possibility neither will ever completely happen as the virus may mutate like the flu. We meet up as usual, no more bises or handshakes, coffee is drunk outside, or windows and doors open inside if it’s wet, then off we go on our merry way.

People understand our government’s dilema and are increasingly in favour of the get on with life approach even if it means more cases.

To stop spread you’d have to treat everyone around you as if they have the virus, in the countries most succesful in limititing contamination that’s more or less what’s happening, but no longer here. And the numbers say it’s not happening in many places around the world.

forgotten that it was 40% six months ago

Er based on what?

Are you basing that on positive tests vs deaths at the time? Because if so you should know that’s a rather flawed calculation and scare mongering at its greatest considering we had absolutely no view of the true extent of infection 6 months ago and we probably still don’t know considering the level of asymptomatic.

Percentage of all deaths due to Covid, for example in April it was 36% according to ONS. So 40% at peak is accurate.

The 40% is simply based on the ratio of all-cause mortality to baseline, coupled to the number reported Covid positive. It’s not scaremongering, it really was appalling.

Baseline deaths (typically 1500/day) plus about 1000/day reported at peak from Covid makes 40%.

If you are aged over 45, then your risk of dying was double it’s normal baseline rate in April. Yes double.

As for johnson’s national address – he needs a speechwriter to provide clear focus and he most definitely needs a voice coach; he’s not auditioning so the verbal flourishes and odd inflections are unnecessary and distract from the message.

I was pleasantly surprised to see him achieve mildly coherent. He does seem to be transferring his own character flaws onto the wider public.

It’s not for the general public.

Testing is the new it’s ok we will be returning to the old ways soon for the government. As the old adage goes – you don’t fatten a pig by weighing it.

How do you tell if the pig is getting fatter though? Or more scientifically, which food is having the most effect?

No luck on testing jnr over 24hrs here.   Always busy, I’ve got through once to “11 available slots” 9 miles away to then be told it was an over 18 site, no go.  Not sure whether that’s because they need paediatric staff or because he’s 11 and they don’t consider him an issue.

Two more days and he’ll be beyond the 5 anyway so it’s not looking as though he’ll get a test.

On the plus side i think Edukators thread is the first real synopsis of “new normal”, in that we’ll bounce around being told what to do like this for a year or so until C19 is as accepted and reaches the same ambivalence  as Flu. In the interim some of us will do our best, others will shrug thier shoulders and let others fall to the wayside with the burden, such is life.  Please be the former.

If you just weigh the pig and make no changes – that’s not necessarily going to fatten it. Or fatten it effectively.

Agreed – test and trace won’t cure the disease, but it’s a vital part of the response to it. We can’t wait to measure the effects of the the measures being taken by seeing how big the death rate gets in the same way as you wouldn’t wait for the pig to starve before concluding that feeding it dust isn’t any good. (OK, you’d see the pig wasting away first but that’s still crude measurement)

And T&T is (if we could only do it properly) not just a measure, it’s an action too. By following the spread accurately (by person is possible given the right infrastructure) it is possible to have extremely local lockdown – you, you and you, but not you – which enables life of a sort to go on.

I don’t have a problem with T&T being pushed as a significant tool in the armoury, we need it desperately. I do have a problem with the incompetence of the implementation, with the cronyism of the people being asked to set it up and run it, and through to the mistrust that comes from even a hint of the likes of CA, Palantir, etc. that severely limits people’s trust and uptake.

Are things really as bad in France as Ed suggests? Depressing. Kids locally aren’t just “playing the game”, they are trying their best to keep their friends and families safe.

reported at peak from Covid makes 40%

And that’s using the “reported as Covid19” figures. Excess death rate was above 2 for two weeks at the peak… so that’s above 50%. And we kept the peak that “low” through the measures we put in place… it wasn’t a natural plateau. Left unchecked this virus would have ended up killing far more people. That’s why the “currently 1% of deaths” line is so misleading when arguing that we should not use social distancing measures from now on… currently it is the best tool to stop excess deaths climbing up to horrific levels.

Cut out the verbiage; KISS; deepen your voice – think Thatcher.

wow, never thought I would hear someone say that. Thats the bar we are aiming for these days what a sad state our “leader” is in.

Learn from Sturgeon’s presentational style – and her willingness to be interviewed.

I mean I 100% agree here but that assumes Johnson actually cares what the public think. He hates talking to the press because he’s incapable of any compassion or relating to normal people. Hes just a rich kid whos idea of a struggle is only being able to afford one nanny.

Agreed – test and trace won’t cure the disease, but it’s a vital part of the response to it.

What I’m wondering is how many rapid tests would we need for the Team Boris test and go on plan. Starting with a wild assumption one test per year per person that’s 67million tests – 1.28 million tests a week. It feels like a massive over estimate in numbers but nice little earner if you’re Dido Harding. If it is going to be a source of income I’d rather it was applied like an NHS prescription charge and the money went to the NHS. Although if people have to pay there will probably be a nice little market develops in fake negatives for those who don’t want to pay.

Anecdote: pal who works at the university down the road was telling me of his boss, mid 40s and very proper and systematic, had his two kids come home from school with runny noses. Dad catches runny nose and checks symptoms list, not there, not a problem. He goes in for a bit of elective surgery in a private clinic and is tested, positive, and sent home to isolate. He had no other symptoms. How many more like this who, quite reasonably, go untested (for whatever reason) and carry on as per usual? It does underline the importance of masking up.

Two more days and he’ll be beyond the 5 anyway so it’s not looking as though he’ll get a test.

Thats going to make things tricky for you, do you isolate or not. The current rules are based on available testing.
I’d keep trying I think

And T&T is (if we could only do it properly) not just a measure, it’s an action too.

This is a UK government communication failure. I have always referred to it in the way more successful countries do… it is TRACK/TRACE/ISOLATE. When politicians move the focus to “testing” rather than “isolating” here in the UK, I fear it is because they are too slack to properly deal with the effects of people needing to isolate, whether it is replacing lost income for those isolating, or making sure schools have the resources and support needed to keep education ongoing when pupils/teachers are isolating.

He goes in for a bit of elective surgery in a private clinic and is tested, positive, and sent home to isolate. He had no other symptoms. How many more like this who, quite reasonably, go untested

This is whats worrying me. Son came home from school with a cold, week later wife got bad head cold, no coughing, no fever a few days later wifes sense of smell went, tested came back positive. I caught the same cold, headache, felt rough but no specific symptoms so have not had a test. 100% convinced I’ve had what wife had.

Scroll down to The Daily Star’s front page; a continuation of johnson being portrayed as Coco the Clown.

And the Daily Heil must have been absolutely creaming themselves at the opportunity to put a British soldier on the cover. He’s got a big gun and everything! Big guns are well known for their use in combating viruses.

The only thing that’s better is a Spitfire. We should have had a picture of a Spitfire. They missed a trick there

Something I noticed when we did manage to get a test for my son (which came back as negative) is that the test booking website pushes other household members to get a test if you are booking a test for someone in the household, even if you aren’t showing symptoms.

This contradicts the NHS advice which is that only the person showing symptoms needs to get a test and if that comes back negative the household is fine.

This will be using up a lot of tests as whole households are getting tested when only one person has the symptoms.

Thats the bar we are aiming for these days what a sad state our “leader” is in.

One does not have to agree with an ideology to know what leadership looks like. I don’t agree with Sturgeon or Thatcher, but I don’t have any qualms about them being leaders.

What I’m wondering is how many rapid tests would we need for the Team Boris test and go on plan

I think you know the answer to that already – see toilet roll. About 67 million/day 😉 .

And the Daily Heil must have been absolutely creaming themselves at the opportunity to put a British soldier on the cover. He’s got a big gun and everything! Big guns are well known for their use in combating viruses

None of the media are doing a great job of this to be honest. I looked at the headlines this morning and they were pretty atrocious. No wonder people go out and panic buy. I assume the government have told them to scare people so it isn’t the governments fault when no one goes out anymore and restaurants shut down!

I had a chat with the boss of local old people’s home recently. He’s lucid, caring and wants the best for the old people. They aren’t panicking or even particuarly worried. They are unhappy with the restrictions around family visits and physical contact and quite happy to take the risk. In some cases dying of Covid is relatively quick and painless compared with what they expect otherwise. Should we be protecting people who don’t want to be protected? What’s morally the right thing to do? It’s a debate for society and how we view the elderly, their hopes, needs and expectations.

I’d keep trying I think

Yep, I am.  As per BillMc, this comes of the back of his sister coming home the week before with a cold, me having some mild symptoms of a cold, but Mrs K who has Lupus has has nothing.  What are we supposed to think/do?

website pushes other household members to get a test if you are booking a test for someone in the household

Indeed, when I thought I got through thats what it said, and we certainly thought – “should we all go?” I said no as its a waste of tests, at least I think it is!

It’s why I wrote what I wrote earlier, for me now  its a case of what can you do in the face of such bollocks, just batten down the hatches for winter, follow the mask & distancing rules and enjoy/make the most of being at home.  Unlimited coffee and beer with a Turbo trainer/bike rides to work it all off, win win.   I can’t even moan about Boris any more it just depresses me, so for the sake of mental health I’m off to live in the Matrix – ignorance (to a point) is bliss.

Educator my mum died in a care home last month after a long battle with cancer. Luckily the staff were fantastic with us as mum neared end of life and we saw her daily. She was in the don’t want to be protected camp. As she said “Bring it on”. Serious thought needs to be given to end of life patients and their families with different practise and restrictions. Nobody should have to leave this earth surrounded by only one of their family wrapped in plastic.

Something I noticed when we did manage to get a test for my son (which came back as negative) is that the test booking website pushes other household members to get a test if you are booking a test for someone in the household

Yeah it says, from memory, you can book up to 4 test for other household members, not sure it says anything about symptoms at this stage but it is poorly worded and thought through.

Ed, that is bleak. Care home rules are to prevent the virus ripping through the place… not protect an individual. Some homes here lost half the people they cared for in just a few short weeks earlier this year. Rules will need to be stuck to if more homes aren’t going to experience that horror this winter. How we staff them (and pay for staff) should really change as well.

@edukator – timely article in The Guardian

TLDR – risk of COVID may go down by banning visits but premature death from giving up goes up