Managed to get a test today in Newtown Wales, 30 miles away, have been and done the test. Pretty uneventful in the end, hopefully find out tomorrow if I’m a plague bearer.

Right back in early March I thought through the options. I thought there were only 3:

1: Harsh lockdown, Chinese style, drive the virus out of business but also much of your economy

2: Boris’ ‘Take it on the chin’ and let the vulnerable die

3: Radically re-think society and business so that it could still work in a post-COVID world

I really hoped that the shock would be severe enough that we’d choose 3, but guess which one I thought most likely? And which one have we got, despite what the government claims?

hancock just started his special announcement in the Commons – 5live now.

He is just a propoganda machine at this point, the tests work, the labs work, the booking system works, its world beating, we have record capacity, claims to the contrary wrong and unhelpful. The only problem is people getting tests who don’t need them.

Propaganda will convince some of the people some/all of the time.
hancock’s emissions don’t convince anyone – the gov, NHS, general public; I doubt he believes the words he’s being forced to utter.

Stop your carping – time to praise the governments efforts!

Says the Moggster.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54194333

Anyone left willing to vote for these ****?

So, has Dido Harding just admitted she’s **** up her current job just like she did the last one?  My god, apparently “nobody knew we’d need this many tests”, What the actual f…

They can’t learn lessons.

EXCLUSIVE: Care homes "under pressure" to accept Covid positive patients.

Channel 4 News has seen a leaked contract which calls on care home providers to accept patients who are COVID-positive from hospitals.

Watch @C4Ciaran's report at 7pm. https://t.co/3XOhNaCMZK

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) September 17, 2020

A testing site where there are no tests available…

https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2020/09/deserted-covid-19-testing-centre-as-test-shortage-continues/

Replicated across the country, I’m sure.

Have invited my (tory) MP to comment; caroline johnson, a hospital consultant, is well known for toeing the party line regardless of the facts

They better not start sending Covid patients into homes. MIL’s nursing home lost quite a few residents. We’re still on restricted visiting once a week from the car park.

The only possible good outcome now is that enough Tory voters realise what an incompetent shambles they’ve elected. They’ve **** up Covid, they’re **** up Brexit, as a result they’ve **** the economy.

If herd immunity is the solution what’s the problem?

Just watched the Channel 4 news report, where its petty obvious care homes might be pursued intro taking in KNOWN Covid patients.

That must be terrifying to hear for anyone who has loved ones in homes. My heart goes out to them and hopefully the bad press from this might stop it.

That’s how care homes were treated in round 1….

The only possible good outcome now is that enough Tory voters realise what an incompetent shambles they’ve elected. They’ve **** up Covid, they’re **** up Brexit, as a result they’ve **** the economy.

Very much doubt that. Boris will trot out some slogan like hands, face, space, oven ready or even get brexit done and they will fall for it again. After that they will just say oh well Corbyn couldn’t have done better despite him not even being the party leader any more.

If herd immunity is the solution what’s the problem?

Collateral damage?

Stop your carping – time to praise the governments efforts!

Says the Moggster.

I thought there were reports he’d caught covid. Looks like he’s going to be even more insufferable out the other side.

If herd immunity is the solution what’s the problem?

That probably requires a vaccine, one that either has proven longevity, or can be topped up. This is a virus where herd immunity may not be obtainable by letting it rip through the community, even if we were to accept the deaths and damaged lives that would cause. Herd immunity by exposure to the virus would not just be horribly costly, at this stage it is purely theoretical. We haven’t lived with it long enough to know if immunity after exposure is long lasting.

The solution is to defer morbidity until a valid method of protection (other than infection) is available to the most vulnerable. At the moment the only intervention available is contact restriction.

Some testing may be possible to help with targeting this intervention. But as the media shows, everyone “needs” a test. In fact systematic testing of those most likely to spread should be the first action.

In time, vaccination or passive antibody vaccination may provide a route for protection. Lilly reported some positive data on their antibody on Monday preventing hospitalisation of mild infections from 6% to 1.6%. A big effect but low actual numbers of patients. Early days but going the right way.

Forget cases. Hospital admissions are climbing and deaths will follow. When treatments come the rates will slow. Dexamethasone will help decouple admissions and deaths. Remdesivir May too (I’m skeptical).

My best case scenario is an annual vaccination by mid 2021, and if that fails to materialise, then six monthly antibody protection by the end of 2021 for the most vulnerable. I’m not optimistic for the current vaccine candidates. That’s based more on past precedence than hard science. But some convalescent plasma trials have failed recently, which does not bode well for the field.

https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-announces-proof-concept-data-neutralizing-antibody-ly

[TL:DR]. Aim is to prevent morbidity in the vulnerable by all available means. Protection will come but not till mid or late 2021. Keep your hands inside the car at all times please. Test if you want to go faster.

SAGE modellers screwed the pooch again. Spent all summer telling us the virus was under control, we had to prepare for winter. Harding may be shit at her job but she was told to ramp up testing for winter. We’re barely halfway through September.

I see the hapless and hopeless zahawi has been wheeled out on QT to represent the clown circus.
Waffle, refusal to answer a direct question – ah, er, um, well; bullshit.
‘Working to make the system even better…’ WTF? That clearly implies the ‘system’ is doing well.
It would be more informative if the BBC used a nodding donkey instead of inviting the tories to put up a stooge.
zahawi has clearly been infected by johnson’s verbal mannerisms – once he gets going it’s like being power sprayed with bullshit.
sunetra gupta’s comments bear no relation to reality; herd immunity all round chaps!
cauldwell loves the sound of his own voice; a very successful mobile phone salesman who knows nothing about virology, epidemiology, healthcare is given a platform to pontificate. Not a shred of common sense or logic from him.

Harding may be shit at her job but she was told to ramp up testing for winter.

Her agencies (ha!) haven’t hit the testing promised in April yet!

Here are our new measures to help the country in the fight against #coronavirus. pic.twitter.com/1Lz3QPb7E4

— UK Prime Minister (@10DowningStreet) April 2, 2020

Estimates are that we’re testing less than 100,000 people a day now, six months later (ignore all the capacity nonsense, that keeps recounting tests never ever posted out).

Testing should have been ramping up over the summer to enable the return to schools, unis and the workplace… the government said it would be required, as would track/trace and a ‘vital’ contact app.

Nursing and care home and NHS staff still don’t have the access to testing they’ve been asking for. How were eduction and other staff supposed to be supported by testing when the health staff are still not being catered for?

I’ve said it before, but there is no evidence of herd immunity, and worse, a resurgence of new hospitalisations and deaths would refute that hypothesis for good. An obvious point, but an SEIR model has a symmetric curve for infections and deaths. Data does not.

As for modelling the need for tests. Suffice to say, I made a suggestion on testing. I did not provide capacity, but I did give a strategy for priority that one could work from to estimate capacity (starting with healthcare workers and nursing homes and moving to schools). I’m afraid that blanket mass testing is not the answer.

For any anti-mask, covid conpiracists…

THIS 👇 pic.twitter.com/g8NXShiNpM

— Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) September 17, 2020

Just watched the Channel 4 news report, where its petty obvious care homes might be pursued intro taking in KNOWN Covid patients

IMO this is what the fabled Nightingale Hospitals could usefully do. There clearly aren’t any spare NHS staff to run them as the govt originally pretended but they probably could house “fit for discharge” virus-positive patients until they can get a couple of negatives under their belts and then go to proper homes

Regarding the testing, I think they need to update the guidance a bit on when symptoms need testing. For the three coughing episodes, there is no explanation of what an episode is, is it a couple of coughs or coughing repeatedly for e.g 1 minute? Is it a dry or productive cough?

My wife saw a thing (from a doctor involved in the symptom tracking app) saying that if you have a blocked nose/sneezing you don’t have Covid, even if you have a bit of a cough. If that’s the case it would probably stop most schoolchildren with coughs needing to get tested/ isolate. Then again I guess if you relax guidance it will just push up transmission.

I also wonder if much less people will bother getting tested at the next round of coughs and colds? Everyone is probably very cautious now but seeing as you probably get a cough/cold every six weeks in winter unless they sort it so people can get a test locally and get the test back within 24hrs people will give up

I think they need to update the guidance a bit on when symptoms need testing. For the three coughing episodes, there is no explanation of what an episode is, is it a couple of coughs or coughing repeatedly for e.g 1 minute? Is it a dry or productive cough?

My wife saw a thing (from a doctor involved in the symptom tracking app) saying that if you have a blocked nose/sneezing you don’t have Covid, even if you have a bit of a cough. If that’s the case it would probably stop most schoolchildren with coughs needing to get tested/ isolate

100% agreed, the failure of our .gov to communicate effectively and provide information is huge. It could even be multi layered. If you have a cough dont go to school or work. If you have a dry persistent cough, get tested. That wouldnt be a hard message to get out.

Regarding the testing, I think they need to update the guidance a bit on when symptoms need testing.

That won’t help when people who don’t need one are trying to get one.

On BBC morning news a couple of days ago, 2 people were interviewed outside a walk in centre when the story was about lack of tests.

1. I’ve come back from Spain, I just want the family to get a test to check we’re all OK so we can carry on with our lives we just want peace of mind.

2. Someone at work has tested positive so my boss told me I can’t come back to work till I get a negative test.

Both admitted they had no sign of any symptoms and felt perfectly alright.

I know its only 2 examples but there’s been more in other interviews. People are admitting on national TV of either breaking quarantine rules and or getting a test when they shouldn’t.

There was another example yesterday where a mum had a cough, she wanted to book a test online, her employment status was unemployed so got rejected due to priorities. She admitted to selecting key worker as employment type and it allowed her to get a test. She was questioned “Do you feel bad about taking a key workers test?”. The response was no, “I’m a single mum I need to keep my family safe” FFS you’re unemployed you can do two weeks isolation as a family no issues. Getting a test doesnt make you suddenly safer it just provides you with knowledge of having it.

That’s what the system is also having to contend with.

@a_a – Yes, or a really basic flow chart using type of cough, temperature, blocked nose etc. They must have enough data by now to develop something.

It doesn’t excuse the governments complete lack of preparedness on the testing front but would at least enable a more streamlined approach and help till they finally build capacity

That won’t help when people who don’t need one are trying to get one.

While we’re only testing people with symptoms, we’re not going to stop this spreading with everything open. To still be officially offering tests to symptomatic people only means that realistically we need far more people isolating after contact with people who have tested positive. We can’t have it both ways… trying to keep schools, workplaces, bars, restaurants, care homes and hospitals… just about everything open… and not offer testing to close contacts of positive people. We can’t have track, trace and do nothing. Isolation (with support for both employees and businesses) or (negative) testing should follow.

Kelvin the system is not designed to test everyone.

Its quite clear, only get a test if you have symptoms or self isolate if you have known contact but no symptoms.

I agree with you that to keep everything ticking over you’d need more testing e.g. the moonshot plan but that’s not feasible right now nor is it the current T&Ts goal.

So based on the leaks, I’m expecting a 2 week national lockdown to coincide with October half term.

If the situation hasn’t already escalated to a bigger lockdown before then. Mid October does feel optimistic.

Kelvin the system is not designed to test everyone.

Yes, I know. But it was sold to the public as part of a raft of measures that allowed us to open up, and for people not to need support to isolate or social distance. That some seek to use it that way is the fault of the government. We need to support people and companies where there has been a positive case to isolate/close. And then… education… it is time to reset the government spin about getting back to normal, and use rotas and social distancing to stop the spread. Our testing system (as it is, not as it was promised) will not stop the spread, our actions will.

So based on the information from Dominic Cummings

FTFY

If the situation hasn’t already escalated to a bigger lockdown before then

I’m a bit bemused by the reaction TBH.   With news of the NHS about to fail, soaring numbers and pending lockdowns, why is this seemingly a bigger deal that the initial spike?   We went into that even less prepared than we are now and the NHS coped, masks and PPE eventually arrived, people got educated, and the number dropped to small amounts.

Today, despite the press/government failings we have the education and at least some preparedness and surely are at a far greater advantage than March of this year?

Matt Hancock is back on the radio using the “Covid Secure” phrase about education again.

Oh, and giggle about the testing problem being because tests are free.

Regards testing for kids

The government’s app data shows that children have a completely different mix of symptoms from adults

top five symptoms in school aged children who test positive for COVID are; fatigue (55%) headache (53%), fever (49%), sore throat (38%) and loss of appetite (35%).

This was different compared to the App’s data on adults; fatigue (87%), headache (72%), loss of smell (60%), persistent cough (54%) and sore throat (49%).

In addition to this, research from the app has also found that one in six (15%) children who test positive for COVID also present with an unusual skin rash.

A cough is way down the list of kids symptoms, but it’s driving a lot of the test demand as that what the government say is a symptom

I see the hapless and hopeless zahawi has been wheeled out on QT to represent the clown circus.

At least Fiona Bruce refused to let him get away with constantly repeating his 250,000 tests a day bullshit, pointing out that while that may be some theoretical capacity, due to the utter shambles of its point-of-delivery there are actually nowhere near that amount of people being tested, so just stop saying it.

I’ve reached the point now where I don’t think Matt Hancock is lying. I think he’s actually existing in some weird sort of alternative reality. A waking fantasy where everything is going really well

When you say school aged is that up to 18? Are we saying an 18 year olds symptoms are different from adults?

Blaming poarents for looking out for coughs and fevers is not fair. .gov should be able to come up with proper advice and crucially have enough testing available testing for that advice. Currently the advice is muddled and the testing availability doesnt match up to that muddled advice.

That some seek to use it that way is the fault of the government. We need to support people and companies where there has been a positive case to isolate/close. And then… education… it is time to reset the government spin about getting back to normal, and use rotas and social distancing to stop the spread. Our testing system (as it is, not as it was promised) will not stop the spread, our actions will.

I know a vote of no confidence in the government will fail, but some discussion around that, and asking MPs to justify voting to support this utter shambles might be interesting.

Today, despite the press/government failings we have the education and at least some preparedness and surely are at a far greater advantage than March of this year?

I think you’re probably right. Ignore the top layer of the Muppet show and thousands of public services employees and private businesses have been lining up preparation and planning for round 2.

In Scotland we have a fairly clear middle of October through to December as peak to plan for, a message coming down from government.

My worry is a combination of a peak worse than round 1 and the top layer of Muppets having diverted funds into dead ends and poorly performing projects (see the testing failures for an example). The nurse in the ward, teacher in school or council waste manager (etc) can’t work with what they don’t have.

Ignore the top layer of the Muppet show

Sadly, it’s the top layer of the Muppet show which decides the timing and extent of measures, which means it will get pulled kicking and screaming into a lockdown about two weeks too late. I have no doubt that the NHS and other public authorities are better prepared, but the country is also much better seeded with the virus than in March. It remained endemic in large parts of the north of England because lockdown was eased as soon as the south was ready.

Symbolic half-measures like closing pubs a whole hour earlier and describing this as a meaningful restriction suggest to me that this is a government which wants to do the bare minimum to protect the vulnerable.

It remained endemic in large parts of the north of England because lockdown was eased as soon as the south was ready.

And the government were being told this loud and clear by the leaders of northern councils at the time, but chose to ignore them.

Worrying, very worrying, and we all saw this coming.