Viewing 40 posts - 15,841 through 15,880 (of 16,526 total)
  • The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.
  • Premier Icon ferrals
    Free Member

    We’re off down to Cornwall via a stop off at my folks (who are, foolishly imo, not concerned and seeing friends so we aren’t a greater risk to them than their standard behaviour). Basically planning on picnics on the beach.. my wife has her heart set on going to one restaurant which we’ve reserved but we can always skip that depending on situation.

    Premier Icon PrinceJohn
    Full Member

    Go online for a covid test, accept any location, get a QR code, jog slong to local test centre, present QR code, get tested…..

    What if you don’t have a smart phone?

    Premier Icon loum
    Free Member

    Pupils now off school with constant coughs but cannot book a test, so as long as its unconfirmed the bubble stays in school!! Well done omnishambles.gov

    They’ll be telling you to use their predicted results next.

    Premier Icon stevextc
    Free Member

    Isn’t the common cold a coronavirus?

    Either a corona virus or rhinovirus

    If a cold runs through A school doesn’t it mean that all the alleged “Covid secure” plans are complete rubbish?

    No not at all… Boris has a ring of steel for schools, just like the one for nursing homes.
    Also the Covid-19 virus will act differently on British soil..
    Besides, when has a kid ever caught a cold at school?

    Premier Icon Kryton57
    Full Member

    Another 4000 today, here we go, gulp.

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Full Member

    Tests are taking days to get back so this is a snapshot of what the situation was ~4 days ago

    There’s also 1000s who have been unable to get a test at all

    Premier Icon Larry_Lamb
    Free Member

    Another 4000 today, here we go, gulp.

    Its not 4k yet.

    [Begin pedantic argument]

    Premier Icon frankconway
    Full Member

    There’s also 1000s who have been unable to get a test at all

    I’m now on day 5 of trying both online and calling 119; no test sites found and being on a an interminable voice message loop respectively.
    Referred to hospital 2 days ago due to breathlessness and wheezing following an hour long coughing fit; discharged after 6 hours with all clear following respiratory function tests.
    Emailed my surgery asking for help to get a test; as expected, my GP said we can’t do anything but was openly critical of the failed system.
    Emailed my tory MP who is a hospital doctor; template response from her office with a bit of personalisation – telling me it must be frustrating but keep on trying; quoting numbers of tests carried out last week in her constituency but that’s an irrelevance.
    I have responded pointing out this is a failure of public health policy; asking how long does she think I should continue trying; stating that her government has proven incapable of delivering a fit for purpose testing system 6 months after the pandemic outbreak; that I had expected a more constructive and focussed response from her as a public health professional.
    Waiting for her response.
    Emailed matt hancock in his capacity as Sec of State for Health.
    Went to nearest test centre asking for test; expected to be refused as I didn’t have a booking – and was; observed traffic visiting the site for 30 mins early afternoon – 5 cars each with a driver only so not exactly busy; have shared this with my MP.
    What a shambles.
    That re-inforces my view this is a flawed and failed system.

    Premier Icon Mugboo
    Full Member

    A customer of mine was advised to take an Aberdeen QR code (Huddersfield based) then take that to his nearest centre and it worked. Seems it works as has been suggested.

    Premier Icon Northwind
    Full Member

    Excellently, it turns out that the government’s stats for “average distance to a test” only includes people who actually attend. Can anyone think of any reason that would skew the results towards a low number?

    Premier Icon greentricky
    Free Member

    Hopefully an incorrect rumour
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1306360104598601731

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    The maths make sense to me. The advice is probably correct as well. It won’t happen though.

    Premier Icon dantsw13
    Free Member

    It’s hardly surprising if it is.

    The way to make school opening a success was to screw down the numbers as hard as possible over the summer, have a rigorous testing scheme ready to expand.

    Calling something “Covid Secure”doesn’t apparently Scare off the virus!!

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    I should expand on that… if the assumption was that doubling time was 7 days (or even ten days) when term started in England, there is no way it would stay that slow once the push back into schools (and pupils’ parents back into workplaces) occurred, in one Big Bang… a jump to a doubling time of 3 days wouldn’t surprise me, and wouldn’t be picked up via current testing (that’s a mess, not successfully scaling up when it was obvious it would be needed) or be obvious from track and trace (that is also a mess, and manual and failing to scale when needed – an app might have helped). The government made it clear back during lock down that the return to school and workplaces would only be possible to do safely, given the lack of a (near) eradication plan, with the right testing, tracking, tracing and isolate plans… they didn’t get it all in place, but pushed on anyway. Hopefully the figures are wrong, and the doubling time is more like 5 or 6 days… but it won’t be as it was at the start of September… it can’t be. The rule of six should help to reduce the speed of the spread again… but by how much?

    Premier Icon BillMC
    Full Member

    Anthony Costello
    @globalhlthtwit
    ·
    7h
    I’m hearing from a well-connected person that government now thinks, in absence of testing, there are 38,000 infections per day. Chris Whitty is advising PM for a two week national lockdown.

    Premier Icon martinhutch
    Full Member

    Chris Whitty is advising PM for a two week national lockdown.

    Why would we need that when shutting pubs an hour early in a small number of local authorities will get a handle on it?

    Those who do not learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them.

    Premier Icon pictonroad
    Full Member

    Our immune systems have barely been challenged for 5 months, have stepped back and are now being hit as we expose them again.

    This isn’t how immune systems work btw. It’s a common misconception, it’s not like going to the gym. Unless you’ve been exposed to the specific infection then you can have the ‘strongest’ immune system going and you’ll still run the full gamut of symptoms before developing immunity.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    Premier Icon anagallis_arvensis
    Free Member

    Quick get down the pub in Newcastle, its going to be closing early soon!!

    Premier Icon anagallis_arvensis
    Free Member

    Thousands…..thats a drop in the ocean!!

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    Indeed, some drips of positive news will be needed in the next few weeks though… thought I’d share one.

    Premier Icon Nick
    Full Member

    Had a pretty unpleasant night, high temperature and definite change in taste, feel better this morning, not perfect but no temperature and only slight metallic taste in mouth.

    So, as per gov instructions I am now trying to get a test, in the meantime son (2nd year of A Levels) has to stay at home and miss football training tonight etc.

    Was close to being able to book a test in Burton on Trent (46 miles away), but the site crashed and now no tests available.

    Premier Icon Mugboo
    Full Member

    Update from my barber shop for those interested. Well over 50%, maybe 75% favour just getting on with it and letting whatever deaths occur just happen. They can’t see the connection between what we have done and the drop in death rates, In fact, they can’t see that we have even lost anybody extra, only lost a few old folk that were dying anyway. This opinion is just as prevelant in the old folk. It’s just flu and flu kills more people anyway.

    These aren’t my opinions as I spend way too much time on this thread but I think its only right to share this as not everyone gets to talk to as many people as I do.

    Premier Icon scotroutes
    Full Member

    Thousands…..thats a drop in the ocean!!

    Follow that Tweet and it suggests around 8 million.

    Premier Icon Nick
    Full Member

    @mugboo this might be right, but I don’t think we know, I assume (because I personally don’t know any better) that the experts have decided that on balance the impact of letting it run rampant would be worse (for the economy) than attempting to control and slow the spread

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    These aren’t my opinions as I spend way too much time on this thread but I think its only right to share this as not everyone gets to talk to as many people as I do.

    Yeah, we know that opinion is widespread… and it’s not surprising… I hear it even from people who have lost someone from this, or have not really recovered from it. I was ready to throw things at the TV last night, as the Newsnight went full “balance” and let someone (one of the usual ‘herd immunity’ mob people kept quoting way back in this thread, I forget her name right now, the one who is a ‘Theoretical Epidemiologist’) eat up airtime while someone there to point out the very real price of that approach had to sit quietly and listen to that nonsense (along with the viewers, many of whom will be moving towards supporting the “do nothing” and leave the vulnerable to magically protect themselves or just quietly die off nonsense).

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    Well over 50%, maybe 75% favour just getting on with it and letting whatever deaths occur just happen. They can’t see the connection between what we have done and the drop in death rates, In fact, they can’t see that we have even lost anybody extra, only lost a few old folk that were dying anyway.

    I’m still surprised when I hear this. I guess that unless you know someone younger/fitter/healthier who has been devastated by the virus, there’s a disconnect between the warnings and your actual experience.

    Let’s hope Cummings doesn’t hold a referendum on whether to lockdown or let it rip.

    Premier Icon neilnevill
    Free Member

    Similar story here re coughs/colds. My 5 year old was only coughing for 2 days, be still has a gravelly voice but almost over it which is quite quickly. The 3 year old came down with it a couple of days later and similar story, she’s well on the mend. It is a strong indicator imv, that once covid enters a school it will appear m spread.

    We are off to West wittering at half term. This break was cancelled at Easter and rebooked. Couldn’t go sooner as we had a baby boy arrive in June. Wife and I feel that we go this time book matter what. Sneaking past road blocks is needed (joking!). TBF though, it’s just us in a cottage by the beach…. We’ll be self isolating basically, just need to book the supermarket delivery!

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Full Member

    I’m still surprised when I hear this. I guess that unless you know someone younger/fitter/healthier who has been devastated by the virus, there’s a disconnect between the warnings and your actual experience.

    Let’s hope Cummings doesn’t hold a referendum on whether to lockdown or let it rip.

    My brexity mum occasionally complains about the government lying & being useless, but it’s amazing how quickly she absorbs the government’s line & repeats it- yesterday it was that the testing should be done in the private sector not by PHE, she didn’t believe me at all when I said Delloite ran the testing centers

    Premier Icon greentricky
    Free Member

    I was ready to throw things at the TV last night, as the Newsnight went full “balance” and let someone (one of the usual ‘herd immunity’ mob people kept quoting way back in this thread, I forget her name right now, the one who is a ‘Theoretical Epidemiologist’) eat up airtime while someone there to point out the very real price of that approach had to sit quietly and listen to that nonsense (along with the viewers, many of whom will be moving towards supporting the “do nothing” and leave the vulnerable to magically protect themselves or just quietly die off nonsense).

    Sunetra Gupta, she has been on a few shows in the last week, it isn’t an unreasonable viewpoint to offer if you can offer if you can clearly outline the full impact of the consquences and how that balances with the other costs we might land up paying but she seems to just make it sound like it will be abit inconvienent but life goes on

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Full Member

    The null hypothesis is that the epidemic went down due to contact restriction. The alternative hypothesis is that the epidemic waned due to acquired immunity and running out of new susceptibles to infect. I do not believe there is sufficient data to reject the null hypothesis. A strong prediction is that relaxing contact restriction will increase hospitalizations and deaths. We are seeing that in France and Spain now and will see it in the UK in a few weeks time.

    Forget cases – testing is helpful for local identification of force of infection and heads hospitalizations by a week. But the ramping up (or not) makes identification of a useful denominator challenging.

    [TL:DR] Sunetra Gupta has long been wedded to us having immunity. Give it two weeks to watch hospital admissions rise and invite her back for comment.

    Premier Icon frankconway
    Full Member

    hancock just started his special announcement in the Commons – 5live now.

    Premier Icon neilnevill
    Free Member

    https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/uk-world-news/boris-johnson-could-order-two-4523293

    Not sure there is any truth in that article, but I kinda hope there is and such things are being discussed.

    Premier Icon oakleymuppet
    Free Member

    Sunetra Gupta, she has been on a few shows in the last week, it isn’t an unreasonable viewpoint to offer if you can offer if you can clearly outline the full impact of the consquences and how that balances with the other costs we might land up paying but she seems to just make it sound like it will be abit inconvienent but life goes on

    Attitudes in India towards the value of life are different and lockdown has hit the poorest there even harder than here – meaning that the lives of much of the lower castes who were already living in squalor are now a living hell. I have yet to be convinced by Guptas work in the context of the UK, so I can only think that because countries like India have coped with some arguably far greater health issues and have carried on regardless in the past, that she has a cognitive bias/blind spot when it comes to Covid in the UK – she also might have a point.

    Premier Icon greentricky
    Free Member

    hancock just started his special announcement in the Commons – 5live now.

    He is just a propoganda machine at this point, the tests work, the labs work, the booking system works, its world beating, we have record capacity, claims to the contrary wrong and unhelpful. The only problem is people getting tests who don’t need them.

    Premier Icon martinhutch
    Full Member

    Waiting for the more granular local data later on today – my local area apparently going to shite alongside Harrogate and Selby in North Yorks. As a shielder, considering my options now in terms of sending my kids to school for the next couple of weeks to give the government the chance to catch up again.

    Premier Icon mudmuncher
    Free Member

    Update from my barber shop for those interested. Well over 50%, maybe 75% favour just getting on with it and letting whatever deaths occur just happen.

    By definition the people going to the barbers are probably less risk averse. If you asked the same question to the people who are still cutting their own hair at home I suspect you’d get different answers.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    claims to the contrary wrong and unhelpful

    He very careful used the words “divisive” and unhelpful… he can’t say the claims are wrong… as Cummings and Johnson could pivot at any point and except the claims and right… leaving him looking silly yet again.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Full Member

    > double post <

    Premier Icon Mugboo
    Full Member

    Thats a good point Mudmuncher and barber shops are doing less business so there are plenty of them.

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