Viewing 40 posts - 14,921 through 14,960 (of 39,835 total)
  • The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.
  • Edukator
    Free Member

    The pre-lockdown R value was 2.6 in the UK. so it wouldn’t be as bad as the last time even with a .5 increase. A high proportion of the most vulnerable have already been exposed in care homes and have either died or will have some kind of immunity. Equally a lot of front line workers have already been exposed and will no longer be a vector.

    You need to explain your working with more than just a speculated increase in R value, thecaptain.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Why should he explain his working when you make so many unfounded claims in one post?

    Edukator
    Free Member

    Such as, Kelvin? You need to read the “cancel culture” thread, it’s what you’ve been trying to do to me for months – and failing.

    Number of care home already infected:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/impactofcoronavirusincarehomesinenglandvivaldi/26mayto19june2020

    Numbers of front-line health care workers already exposed:

    COVID-19 How many Healthcare workers are infected?

    Pre-lockdown R value

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/what-r-value-means-coronavirus-lockdown-uk-rising/

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    northernsoul
    Full Member

    The non-compliers seem to be congregating in places that the compliers would avoid: the high density tourist hot spots where people go because they are popular with people of their age group.

    We’ve just returned from a week in the lakes – a very mixed bag. Some places were great – appropriate social distancing measures, good compliance. Others less so, e.g. the Spar in Ambleside, with no restrictions on numbers entering, no one way, and for every person wearing a face covering there was someone not bothering. We were a bit shocked in general at how many people didn’t bother with distancing or face coverings.

    thecaptain
    Free Member

    Edukator, From that link “According to modelling published by Imperial College London at the start of April, the R value stood somewhere between 3 and 4.6 in Europe before lockdowns came into effect. ”

    The earlier SAGE estimate (up to mid March) was 2-2.5, this was part and parcel of their error with the doubling rate. It was actually probably around 3-3.5 in the UK. It’s a bit of an imprecise science defining and estimating it, as it also depends on other unknown parameters (such as the incubation time of the virus). The true doubling rate of 3 days versus SAGE’s estimate of 5 days is the important point.

    So R going up to something in the region of 1.5-2 would be better than that, but still **** horrible with deaths going up into the thousands per day, that was my point. Though my simple modelling doesn’t take account of the older and more vulnerable protecting themselves, so it may not end up being quite as grim as it looks. Though we were supposedly protecting care homes last time round, and see how that worked out. Ooops.

    My “working” is a SEIR model that I’ve written about a lot (blog and twitter), there is nothing remotely dodgy or even unconventional about it (the code came straight from an epidemiologist) and in fact it’s essentially very similar to the one underpinning the research quoted from that article (Flaxman et al), which was published in Nature a couple of months back. I just happen to know how to fit models to data a lot better than many epidemiologists seem to.

    Edukator
    Free Member

    Models are useful tools but as TiRed has pointed out when postin his the further into the future you go the less reliable they are. TiRed has posted some grpahs on here that have held up very well short term (except the first American one which was actually quite a good prediction for New York but not for the US as a whole).

    Any sustained R value greater than 1 will ultimately result in thousands of deaths a day, that’s the nature of exponential curves. It has to be sustained though and wherever you look at post lockdown R values in Europe they tend to rise for a while and then drop below 1 again. There was panic about Germany when R numbers looked alarming but in fact were from such a low base and in such confined areas it didn’t take long to isolate those infected.

    I’m more inclined to look at whether the test and trace is working than trying to model from the current level with far too many variables to make modelling practical. I used to write models myself – models work well with a high number of samples and a low number of variables. We currently have a fairly low case rate and so many factors influencing the variables that I realy wouldn’t know where start if asked to produce a model today.

    martinhutch
    Full Member

    the Spar in Ambleside,

    Brave person even attempting to go in there. You are truly at the mercy of all the crowds who pile through that area. Booths in Windermere at a bare minimum!

    thecaptain
    Free Member

    That’s why I didn’t produce a model, I used the standard one that underpins a lot of the more complicated approaches. An R value marginally over 1 would not result in thousands of deaths a day, but knowing how far over 1 we could go without a major health catastrophe was not clear to me a priori.

    I suspect our TTI is not working at all well, because its primary purpose is to shovel money out the door into the private sector rather than to achieve any useful health outcomes. They haven’t even published the central statistic of how many new cases were already isolating (because they had been identified as contacts prior to becoming ill themselves), which is the only useful measure of the system.

    DrJ
    Full Member

    My “working” is a SEIR model that I’ve written about a lot (blog and twitter),

    Be interested to read, if you feel able to share?

    Edukator
    Free Member

    An R value marginally over 1

    Agreed, I’m trying not to get too picky I’d appreciate others doing the same. You’re generally talking in terms of .5 intervals/rises 1, 1.5, 2 2.5-3.5 etc and I’m thinking in those terms not 1.000001.

    Anyhow time will tell. Bookmark the page, I’m predicting that none of the European countries that have already had a lockdown will get to thousands of deaths a day because society has adapted to the presence of the virus:

    Masks indoors
    Nightclub closures
    Indoor contact limitation
    Home working
    Crowd limitation outside
    mask wearing, inter-class contact limitaton and year group separation in schools
    AWARENESS

    We’re in for a roller coaster ride but we’ve already done the initial climb and big drop. Bookmark the page. The last time I said that I was right. 😉

    molgrips
    Free Member

    This has been an eye-opener for me. Genuinely thought that level of idiocy was an American thing but I reckoned without good old British common sense.

    The difference is that Brits will just grumble about it whereas that demographic in the US will become militant and bang on about freedom and such.

    amodicumofgnar
    Full Member

    I’m not convinced that the population is quite as sociopathic as it might appear from election results. Of course the govt has been doing its best to whip up hatred and division.

    I don’t think it is either but the messaging is coming from the court of the cockup king Cummings. Unfortunately we seem to in a situation where Boris has weeded out all dissenting voices and so there is no reality filter on the pronouncements. He sees the world through his own prism.

    Read something in the indy about the cabinet office having a Covid unit – which I’m guessing is Cummings under cover for Gove. Great the problem is still deluded enough to think it’s the solution. Wasn’t it Cummings who was pro if you fail you go? As ever the rules don’t apply.

    First step on sorting out seems to be a whole heap more gravitas and clear message re-enforcement. I have wondered if we will look back on people who were nothing to see all back to normal as Covid deniers. Much like climate change now.

    northernsoul
    Full Member

    the Spar in Ambleside,

    Brave person even attempting to go in there.

    With hindsight it wasn’t the best choice!

    I’ve just finished our weekly family Zoom catch up. My nephew (lives in N Midlands) was seeing a friend a couple of weeks ago, who casually dropped into the conversation “by the way, my dads got Covid-19 – he’s having an assessment tomorrow to see whether he needs to go to hospital“. I mean FFS. The “friend” lives with his dad and a lodger (a barber). The “friend” hasn’t been tested. The barber has (but continued working whilst waiting for the result, which was thankfully negative). My nephew was tested but had to postpone returning to the office whilst waiting for the results. I’ve found the last few months something of an eye opener concerning the health of our society.

    loum
    Free Member

    A high proportion of the most vulnerable have already been exposed in care homes and have either died or will have some kind of immunity.

    Depends how you define “high proportion of the most vulnerable”.

    THE most vulnerable were the people told to “shield” , due to the danger to them, usually due to underlying medical conditions with their immune system or lungs. Not the same as over 70s advised to stay in due to age.

    There were around 2.2 million shielding in this country, That is critically extremely vulnerable people, and over half of them were in the 18 to 69 age group.

    I can’t really see how any of these people have “already been exposed in care homes”.
    Or how any could “have some kind of immunity”, especially considering the immune systems of the people involved. Some may have died, but that’s unlikely to be due to the virus as they were shielding.

    And shielding ended yesterday.
    It’s back to work for this lucky lot tomorrow.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Such as, Kelvin?

    Thanks for the links to back up claims of wide spread infection Ed (I never doubted that)… now how about your claims that those previous infections earlier this year means protection for those groups later this year? That is just a hope, a prediction… I share your hope but we should not plan based on it. We can not treat previously infected carehomes, hospitals and other care and medical settings as if they are protected by some form of institutional herd immunity. We do not have the evidence to safely act in that way.

    Not sure why you got so snarky about my defence of another poster. Sorry If I offended you by doing so.

    Edukator
    Free Member

    Not sure why you got so snarky

    Becuase you’ve been super critcal and agressive towards me for months and it’s wearing a bit thin.

    now how about your claims that those previous infections earlier this year means protection for those groups later this year? That is just a hope, a prediction… I share your hope but we should not plan based on it.

    It’s more then a hope, there is obsevational evidence and experiemntatal evidence:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/07/19/can-you-get-covid-19-coronavirus-twice-here-is-an-update-on-reinfection/

    You are quick to be critical without Googling to see if I might have a point, Kelvin. Where does this grudge come from ? Did I unwittingly wind you up a few months ago. Be nice to know because you aren’t like this with (most) other posters.

    Edit have you forgotten you wrote this:

    kelvin
    Subscriber

    Why should he explain his working when you make so many unfounded claims in one post?
    Posted 3 hours ago
    Reply | Report

    without bothering to quote what you were rubbishing.

    Anyhow all claims made over the last pages were founded with links now to back them up.

    TiRed
    Full Member

    We are more **** than I thought. If R were to go up by about 0.5 in Sept (ie to about 1.6 from the current 1.1)

    Now you know why everyone is a little concerned. In all honesty, the school contribution is not absolutely known, it’s derived from models of influenza transmission.

    The null hypothesis is simply that children really aren’t much different to adults. People WANT them to be, but from a transmission perspective, that’s hard to refute. It is true they have much lower morbidity and almost no mortality. But preventing their parents and grandparents catching it is a priority.

    Witty is trying not to alarm, but the situation isn’t really great. I don’t think we will have serious overwhelming of healthcare, nor a high excess mortality. Probably a bad flu year. But I expect local lockdowns, contact restrictions out of school and mass pooled testing.

    And thecaptain is right about fitting models. What matters most is how estimated parameters are correlated. At the start of the epidemic it was not possible to estimate R together with infection generation time. But doubling time was simple (plot the data!). Now we have great data but multiple reasons for the trends (lockdown/immunity/reduced pathogenesis…). Models are helpful but they are not truth. They help me with paring down what might be true. They also help with what-ifs.

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    I regularly sit by myself on a grass slope overlooking a couple of little shops down the road from me. A co-op and an independent.

    There is definitely a certain demographic that tends not to wear masks.

    Interestingly, I’m in that demographic!

    Middle aged/older, white males.

    The best compliance seems to be by their female opposite. Middle aged (any ethicity) women almost invariably wear masks to go into shops.

    Quiet fascinating to watch. Interestingly, young males aren’t too bad in their compliance with masks. That was the group I expected to be the most blase but glad to be proven wrong.

    MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    The difference is that Brits will just grumble about it whereas that demographic in the US will become militant and bang on about freedom and such.

    Apparently the Germans were having some protests yesterday about their restrictions. So much for stereotypes

    stumpyjon
    Full Member

    Mask wearing here seems pretty universal, except shop staff, most seem not to wear them (I know they don’t have to). Given that I reckon less than 10% were wearing them before i think thats pretty impressive. Most even seem to be wearing them properly, be interresting to see if the trend continues.

    Anyway no antibodies for me which I expected, just done the home test kit, got picked at random to take part. All very easy except getting the blood into the sample window. Good to see part of government trying to get a grasp of the facts rather than just making it up.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    I have wondered if we will look back on people who were nothing to see all back to normal as Covid deniers. Much like climate change now.

    I’m sure there’ll be plenty of belters about, take this little nugget about face masks;

    Could this all be a sneaky ploy to get us to submit to wearing burkas (which I guess count as face coverings/masks/or some other euphemism)? Back door Sharia law!

    I really want to believe it’s not a serious post.

    stumpyjon
    Full Member

    Any thoughts on Russia starting its immunisation program in October. The expert on BBC news was inferring there was no way they could have tested it properly for efficacy or safety. The Oxford team are only just entering phase 3 trials now.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    without bothering to quote what you were rubbishing

    Apologies.

    I was referring to your assertion that past spread of the virus through carehomes and medical staff offers protection for those in carehomes in future, and means that health care workers won’t be a ‘vector’ in future. We don’t know if those infected earlier this year will have immunity going into the winter… and should act as if they do not. Even if those individuals do have long term immunity, that does not mean that we should act as if institutions effected in the past somehow have herd immunity… the science does not back that up yet, and we, as a community, should be acting to protect both those in carehomes and those working in health. To lean on the idea that they are protected in any meaningful way because of past infections in their institutions would be foolish.

    somafunk
    Full Member

    Mask wearing here seems pretty universal, except shop staff, most seem not to wear them

    In my wee galloway town if you dont wear a mask then you dont get into shops (signs saying No Mask?-No Entry) and thats how it should be, theres been a few hissy fits from the tourists who believe they have a god given right to do whatever they like but by and large everyone is behaving, only been one scuffle from a gammon bloke who attempted to barge into the wrong shop without a mask, got physically thrown out and told to **** off

    imnotverygood
    Full Member

    At the start of all this we were getting quite a lot of figures for mortality rate, different effects for age etc. There doesn’t seem to be too much emphasis on this right now which is odd, given we must now have better data.

    TiRed
    Full Member

    There doesn’t seem to be too much emphasis on this right now which is odd,

    Not really. At the beginning these facts were unknowns. Now they are not. Currently in England and Wales mortality is within historic range across all age groups.

    SARS-COV2 increases mortality in people aged above about 45. The case fatality rate roughly doubles as age rises from 45 to 65 to 75 to 85 to 85+. Overall mortality is about 0.5%. But in the oldest age (2% of the population) it is about 20%.

    Planning for future control will take age-based mixing into account. As will vaccination (like influenza now – children and 50+) for the same reasons.

    Edukator
    Free Member

    Kelvin, I said in the context of predictiing future R- values:

    The pre-lockdown R value was 2.6 in the UK. so it wouldn’t be as bad as the last time even with a .5 increase. A high proportion of the most vulnerable have already been exposed in care homes and have either died or will have some kind of immunity. Equally a lot of front line workers have already been exposed and will no longer be a vector.

    You say I said something differnt and go on to criticise it in the context of protecting the elderly:

    I was referring to your assertion that past spread of the virus through carehomes and medical staff offers protection for those in carehomes in future, and means that health care workers won’t be a ‘vector’ in future.

    The changes you make are subtle but a serious misquote and change of context. You’ve gone from future R value potential to protecting the elderly (people can’t die twice – those that have died can’t be killed by the virus again, and the evidence says those that have had won’t have it again or not as badly = lower R value) and then rubbish the words you put in my mouth about protecting the elderly – you added the “protection” bit.

    You apologise and then launch into another unjustified attack with a misquote out of context and the you wonder why I appear “snarky”. If you are going to quote use the block quote feature rather than quoting adding words that weren’t there while removing qualifiers that were there.

    Edit: to remove last sentence which may constitute negative use of the forum even if entirely accurate.

    binners
    Full Member

    Being out and about around East Lancs and Greater Manchester this sunny weekend, it seems that the region has given Boris and little Matty a resounding two fingers to their ‘local’ lockdown.

    Packed beer gardens and pubs. Yesterday I watched a huge hen party, complete with the obligatory inflatable cocks, piling into a curry house.

    The pubs and restaurants are literally clinging on by their fingertips, so I totally get it why they’re not asking any questions. They’re desperate for ANY business, no matter what the government has got to say on the matter

    As predicted with the totally farcical manner in which it was handled, Manchester collectively came up with their own punchy three-word slogan…

    **** OFF BORIS!

    It’ll be lifted on Thursday, I’m sure, now Eid’s out of the way and everyone’s just ignoring it anyway

    kelvin
    Full Member

    another unjustified attack

    Attack?! Cool down man.

    I disagree that we can assume R will be restrained to any great extent because of past infections in carehomes and health staff. We still have no idea if any immunity from past infections lasts more than a few months. We also don’t know how much individual immunity contributes to reducing transmission rates within a group. And we also don’t know if people will begin to behave in ways that increase R that they didn’t, or weren’t allowed to, earlier in the epidemic. That is not an attack on you. My original flippant remark was an echo of your challenge on thecaptain, that was all. And I apologise again for the tone of that. It was rude of me. Sorry.

    They’re desperate for ANY business, no matter what the government has got to say on the matter

    Indeed. Shut pubs if it needs to happen, and support those economically effected by that action. But, keeping pubs open, and then mandate people only to go to the pub with people they live with, and not to mingle there with anyone outside their household… and either pubs and their customers need to break those rules, or the pubs are all but empty and can’t even break even.

    binners
    Full Member

    Mrs Gove kindly enlightens us as to government policy, displaying all the sensitivity, empathy and compassion for all those who’ve died that we would expect

    kelvin
    Full Member

    We’re not trying to save her (from the virus), we’re trying to save other people from her (spreading the virus).

    ElShalimo
    Full Member

    If the Gove-Vile household caught it, few people would shed any tears

    Nasty people

    fatmountain
    Free Member

    What do the STW armchair covid19 experts have for me?

    I’m making my escape to Spain and getting residency before the Brexshit hits the fan. Ideally, I’d go around the 23rd of August. Need to get out before another lockdown.

    Should I be going sooner?

    Edukator
    Free Member

    Cool as, Kelvin, and vigilant.

    We still have no idea if any immunity from past infections lasts more that a few months

    I agree but would qualify: Antibody levels decline with time, however the T-cell immune repsonse doesn’t depend on antibodies and is thought to be responsible for fighting off the infection in some/many people in contact with the virus. The body’s immune system can be “trained”, that’s what some types of vacine do and give long term protection. If antibodys don’t provide long term protection then many vacine projects are doomed to failure. Stimulating immune response to Covid is the objective with people working on how to achieve that.

    There’s also anecdotal evidence that very few people are getting Covid twice and even those that are may simply be long hualers – one contributor to this forum has tested positive twice with a long interval (several weeks) inbetween. As with the monkeys subsequent infections are less serious even when they happen and the amount of virus excreted is lower so there will be less transmission – less numerous and less severe reinfections = lower R.

    We also don’t know how much individual immunity contributes to reducing transmission rates within a group.

    Here I disagree, it’s the whole basis of either natural or vacine induced herd immunity. If enough induividuals have immunity the virus doesn’t meet enough vulnerable people to circulate – there are graphic illustration on Youtube.

    And we also don’t know if people will begin to behave in ways that increase R that they didn’t, or weren’t allowed to, earlier in the epidemic.

    I don’t think people are going back to les bises, hand shaking, shouting into other people’s faces at close proximity in discos, sharing drinks/joints, cramming into chilly gondolas or any of the things that resulted in very high R numbers in places like Ischgul. All the changes in behaviour I aluded to earlier in the day on this thread will reduce not increase R levels. We are behaving in ways that have reduced the R potential not increased it.

    martinhutch
    Full Member

    Yesterday I watched a huge hen party, complete with the obligatory inflatable cocks, piling into a curry house.

    This is Binners’ classier version of the Rutger Hauer speech at the end of Bladerunner. 🙂

    binners
    Full Member

    I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe…

    He may have seen attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion, but he’s never been to Rawtenstall on a Saturday afternoon 😳

    Edukator
    Free Member

    “If you gotta go, go now or else you gotta stay…”
    A Bob Dylan quote for you, fatmountain.

    northernsoul
    Full Member

    In my wee galloway town if you dont wear a mask then you dont get into shops (signs saying No Mask?-No Entry)

    In the Lake District last week I didn’t see anyone challenged for not wearing a face covering. Not once. Anywhere.

    amodicumofgnar
    Full Member

    Mrs Gove all death or glory – I wouldn’t be overly surprised if there was a lot of moaning if she found herself on the path of the long termer. Perhaps if Mr G hadn’t been part of the Cummings cohort playing an ideological game rather than treating it as a significant threat we might actually be in better shape as a nation to deal with this.

    fatmountain
    Free Member

    You reckon Edukator? Think you might be right….

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