Viewing 40 posts - 14,881 through 14,920 (of 15,065 total)
  • The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.
  • Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    Bet a lot of the local councils had no idea it was coming either, they certainly had no idea of the detail.

    Lisa Nandy was on channel 4 news last night saying that nobody got any warning until a couple of hours before it dropped, when they were summoned to a conference call by little Matty Handjob and informed what was going ahead.

    Lots of questions were asked, but he didn’t have any answers, as at that point they still hadn’t actually decided what the new rules were going to be.

    That was 2 hours before they announced the lockdown. Have a think about that for a minute…

    They were literally scrawling out on the back of a ****ing fag packet, right at the death, rules that would massively impact the lives of 4.6 million people.

    An absolute ****ing shambles!!!

    The shear incompetence is breathtaking! It’s criminally negligent! As it has been from day one, with Boris not bothering his fat, lazy arse enough to even turn up to COBRA meetings. That pretty much set the tone for everything that’s happened since

    DrJ
    Member

    Relax – johnson says he’ll be working flat out during the summer hols.

    But then immediately said he’d be going on holiday.

    How can you tell the difference?

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Subscriber

    I stand by my statement that pointing fingers at one group could cause complacency in another so shouldn’t be done.

    Pointing fingers at one group is obviously the wrong approach. But you still need to deal with the issues in that group, not wanting to talk about it openly in case it gets abused by those with another agenda would be counter productive, though this may require an ability to communicate that is clearly beyond this government

    Be interested in the numbers behind the statement that the virus “ripped through” the staff at a school – 2-3 schools in Derby were closed after outbreaks but I didn’t see any mention in any official announcements or social media gossip to suggest that the virus was “ripping through” at any of the locations. Statements like that need to be supported to avoid what might be small and well contained incidents prompting unnecessary alarm and over reaction.

    Daughters gymnastics squad have had their first face to face training session today. A few nervous and tearful looking parents, the kids seemed to enjoy it mind, even though display gymnastics (think cheerleading pyramids, throws and tumbles) is a bit tricky when everyone is 2 metres apart. But great to see them back together with friends and picking up where the left off. They should have just got back from Eurogym in Iceland if the year had gone to plan.

    fasthaggis
    Member

    An absolute ****ing shambles!!!

    The shear incompetence is breathtaking! It’s criminally negligent! As it has been from day one, with Boris not bothering his fat, lazy arse enough to even turn up to COBRA meetings. That pretty much set the tone for everything that’s happened since

    ^^ This,and every day I think “Who’s going to change things?”
    Sir Keir Rodney Starmer?
    Well he is chipping away at things ,and at PMQ does make Bojo look like the bluffer that he always was, but if you look into the distance for people coming through the ranks (in any party),that have competence, integrity and good qualities, who do you see that gives any hope for the future?

    Premier Icon dazh
    Subscriber

    Now, in any sane country, you’d simply say ‘well, shut the pubs then’

    Does anybody believe that that would be our governments initial thought process?

    This is the crux of it. Even with the furlough scheme in place, and even if it was extended, the large pub chains are losing tons of money. That brexit ‘spoons idiot probably has a hotline to 10 Downing St. Just think, we’re very possibly in the next few weeks going to get to the point in this country where the government of the day prioritises ‘the inalienable right of every Englishman to go down the pub’ over and above our kid’s right to an education.

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Subscriber

    we’re very possibly in the next few weeks going to get to the point in this country where the government of the day prioritises ‘the inalienable right of every Englishman to go down the pub’ over and above our kid’s right to an education.

    Will be a key decision moment, the potential failure of the pub industry or the potential loss of those kids education and mental well being

    Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    I think I know where I’d be putting my money on that particular call.

    One generates money, one costs money

    Hmmmmmm…. which will it be?

    The private schools will still be able to open ok though, right?

    If they don’t open the schools then they will have to pay a fortune in extending furlough or more universal credit for those who can’t work due to looking after kids.
    I would be amazed if they didn’t prioritise schools

    Larry_Lamb
    Member

    Is it as black and white as that though, schools vs pubs?

    Infection rates across a lot of boroughs are dropping but have pubs. My family lives in Norfolk and they’ve had no cases for a while now. Its certain clusters where rates are increasing. (I’m not saying its an Asian thing, there will be multiple groups involved).

    Although pubs are going to be a driver when you get adults getting smashed up and slobbering each other. Perhaps put a limit on intoxication and require breathalysing prior entry to a pub.

    Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    I would be amazed if they didn’t prioritise schools

    I don’t know if you’ve seen who the education secretary is or if you’re familiar with the earlier work of Gavin ‘Frank Spencer’ Williamson

    Premier Icon dissonance
    Subscriber

    Hmmmmmm…. which will it be?

    Trickier than that. Without schools you need alternate childcare or people wont be going back to workplace. Hence why they were keen on getting them reopened.

    @binners yeah I see your point there.
    I don’t think they will let that mouth breather anywhere near the decision though. He will be told what to say

    Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    I find it terrifying that an imbecile like him is in charge of our education system.

    Rebecca Long Bailey didn’t do much as shadow education secretary but she did look at him with total incredulity, when he made his statement about the schools not reopening until September, and asked him ‘what have you actually been doing for the last few months?

    A very valid question

    Can’t be too many of the cabinet people don’t think that of though

    Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    I was thinking exactly that as I posted it. It’s absolutely certain that this country has never seen a cabinet stuffed with such complete non-entities. Political pygmies

    Boris is so painfully needy and insecure, he does suffer from ‘tall poppies’ theory, we know, but even so…

    Gavin Williamson?
    Liz Truss?
    Priti Patel?
    Grant Schapps?

    And, somewhat unbelievably, they’re not even the worst of them

    It’s a good job we don’t find ourselves in a situation that requires strong, decisive, intelligent leadership. Otherwise we’d be ****ed!

    Oh….

    thecaptain
    Member

    Both pubs and schools will be open and we’ll wear the consequences. It won’t be pretty but it won’t be disastrous either.

    (hmmm….I should back that up with calculations…it’s mostly an informed guess for now)

    Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    Maybe we could combine schools and pubs in some way?

    Actually… I’m prepared to put my house on one of the cabinet having already asked that question

    Probably Gavin Williamson

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Subscriber

    Perhaps put a limit on intoxication and require breathalysing prior entry to a pub.

    Funnily enough, that’s been the law for a very long time already, and if it had been enforced more seriously then a lot of Police and NHS costs could have been avoided

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Subscriber

    (hmmm….I should back that up with calculations…it’s mostly an informed guess for now)

    Estimates put school transmission at about 50% of the total. We know what happens when we have 100%… you don’t really need sums. There’s a lot more information for informed guesses now. For me, it’s all about where to put the control measures for most impact.

    Swab teachers twice a week? Shut down year groups completely when positives found? What about dual school siblings?

    Swab teachers twice a week?

    Teachers are immune and kids dont spread it. It’ll be fine!

    Premier Icon colournoise
    Subscriber

    Had my first ‘mass gathering’ experience since restrictions eased today. The salubrious environs of Wetherby services. I sat and people watched outside while Zoe grabbed some food. I would say easily 95% compliance with mask wearing which was way higher than I expected. What really interested me though was the demographic of the 5% – almost without exception they were 30-something white male gym bunnies.

    Premier Icon tjagain
    Subscriber

    This amused me:

    Robert West, a professor of health psychology at University College London, agreed. “Putting a brake on further easing of the lockdown will probably not reduce infection rates but it may slow the speed with which they rise,” he said.

    “The government needs to grasp the nettle and recognise that it needs to follow Scotland’s example and use the next few weeks to get to zero Covid-19 before the autumn – and then things can start to ease safely,”

    Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    They’ve known all along what they need to do. They’ve just got no desire to actually do it.

    Their priorities are different

    Hence locking down far too late and easing lockdown far too early.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Subscriber

    I predict they’ll start acting towards make the full return to school buildings safe a few weeks after the term starts.

    Anyway, shielding is over vulnerable folk, get back to work… you can trust your workmates not to have spent the last few weeks doing anything that will put you at risk… and don’t ask about the contact tracing app…

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Subscriber

    What really interested me though was the demographic of the 5% – almost without exception they were 30-something white male gym bunnies.

    Interesting – masks seem to be almost a fashion item among that demographic round here. Quite a few parents without masks but kids wearing them when I had to nip into town this morning.

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Subscriber

    Zero Covid is not going to happen. Second lockdown is not going to happen either. So what to do? Which brake do you release?

    Schools will be going back. Transmissions will increase. Cases will increase. Deaths will increase. But the vulnerable will now be better protected by testing. My personal prediction is a modest second seasonal wave, mixed in with influenza, but a zero sum game: lower influenza will be offset by increased COVID19. If you want a number, less than 30k excess deaths over the winter.

    Premier Icon reluctantjumper
    Subscriber

    I hope you’re right TiRed, we need it to be.

    It’s starting to affect me at work (supermarket home deliveries), seeing all these vulnerable adults being too scared to go out after months stuck inside their homes. What should be their place of happiness and security some now see as a prison. A few have had literally no actual human contact through the whole of this. One has us deliver the shopping into their garage, put the frozen into an old chest freezer and the rest in a coolbox. They then won’t touch any of it for 24 hours. They’re living alone too and the neighbours have told me that not a soul has been let inside that house since the end of March. They are not well and have various health issues that are normally not life-limiting but mean that if they get sick it’s pretty much curtains.

    We desperately need proper guidance and leadership leading up to the winter and I don’t see it anywhere in Westminster. I fear a big upswing in infections come the end of autumn.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Subscriber

    Zero Covid is not going to happen.

    A political choice.

    Second lockdown is not going to happen either.

    A political choice.

    There should be no need to talk about a second “lockdown” (we haven’t had a lockdown anyway, there has been not a single day where I was told I couldn’t leave me home, or had to justify why I was leaving it)… the government made it clear that it would relax measures once we had the virus under control, and had track and trace measures in place including a tracing app (they were too scared of using the “isolate” word, but we knew what they meant)… they then changed their mind and relaxed measures before any of that was achieved and in place. The balance of restrictions and deaths that we have coming up later this year should always be seen in that light… they have made the situation we find ourselves in this summer, and that directly effects what this winter will bring, and limits their choices in how to respond to it greatly.

    Premier Icon Mugboo
    Subscriber

    I run a little barber shop in a very white, reasonably affluent area on the edge of Bradford so I get to listen to lots of people everyday. Things that stand out at the moment, apart from the obvious ‘its the asians wot dunnit’ are…

    There aren’t enough deaths anymore so people are becoming suspicious of whether its a big con?

    Far more people than I could ever have imagined actually believe in conspiracy theorys. Combine this with the governments mixed messaging and you have disaster.

    Our few Polish customers tell us that their Polish family and friends believe its all about control.

    All in all its a bit scary, I never realised how many crazy people there were out there. It seems that until the death rate rises again nobody is listening. This lockdown has basically just frightened those that were already behaving even more and had no impact whatsoever on anyone else.

    My own personal fear is the schools. As Tired said, families with more than one sibling in school means that in reality the whole school is a bubble surely?

    Edukator
    Member

    Schools do their best to stop mixing between different classes and year groups but as soon as the kids are out of the gate they meet up in their usual social groups.

    I’ve found the “kids aren’t infectious” line quite irritating in the way I found the initial “masks are pointless” line irritating. Slowly it’s being recognised that kids are transmitting the virus and the age at which they are both at risk and a risk to others is now down to the very youngest:

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/children-often-carry-more-coronavirus-than-adults-study-67785

    Larry_Lamb
    Member

    as soon as the kids are out of the gate they meet up in their usual social groups.

    They’re doing that right now, not being at school hasn’t effected that.

    Edukator
    Member

    But when they go back to school you can add their class group to their social group, and given the cross over between the various class, social and family groups of kids much of a school can potentially be contaminated by one point of entry. So in answer to mugboo’s final paragraph question the best answer is yes.

    Edit: in one French Lycée 40% of kids tested positive for antibodies, given what we now know about the number of false negatives in the antibody tests it’s likely that over 60% of kids had had the virus. The school was the main vector of transmision in the community.

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Subscriber

    Far more people than I could ever have imagined actually believe in conspiracy theorys. Combine this with the governments mixed messaging and you have disaster.

    This has been an eye-opener for me. Genuinely thought that level of idiocy was an American thing but I reckoned without good old British common sense.

    I agree with TiRed – zero Covid is pretty much impossible to achieve, certainly from the position we are in now. That’s the fault of decisions made by our politicians a few months back now.

    I think realistically a second “lockdown” can’t be done either. Not without martial law to support enforcement. The Police didn’t have the resources – or the direction – to enforce the first one. There’s no chance of another one working without serious civil disobedience and disorder, which may well cost more lives directly and indirectly than TiReds forecast up there.

    For those of you wanting to go to the pub/gym, best get there before the schools go back.

    thecaptain
    Member

    There’s a lot of people talking up the civil disobedience angle. Fretting about limited compliance was also used to justify not taking action initially, whereas in reality people were well ahead of the govt on that. I’m not convinced that the population is quite as sociopathic as it might appear from election results. Of course the govt has been doing its best to whip up hatred and division.

    Edukator
    Member

    I’ve been impressed with general levels of compliance in most places I’ve been this Summer and I don’t think we’ll go back to the R levels of late February and early March when people packed into ski-resort gondolas, bars and night clubs, and then went back to their respective jobs/universities/schools. The non-compliers seem to be congregating in places that the compliers would avoid: the high density tourist hot spots where people go because they are popular with people of their age group.

    There’s a 200km long sandy beach north of Bayonne but the young festive types are crammed into a few popular beach bars and commercial streets and the corresponding few kms of beach. Most of our local clusters now concern 18-35 year-olds. An age group that understandably doesn’t worry too much about the virus. But this time when they return to work/uni/school they’ll have to wear a mask and won’t be shaking hands with everyone they meet.

    Behaviour has changed, R will never reach the levels of March.

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Subscriber

    I’m not convinced that the population is quite as sociopathic as it might appear from election results. Of course the govt has been doing its best to whip up hatred and division.

    I agree with the general population being ahead of the government and compliant. But there’s an increasingly vocal minority if idiots ready to break the rules and cause trouble if the Police try to take action, and another lockdown, even if only at the previous level, will push more people towards that if their mental health and financial security get stretched any further.

    Edukator
    Member

    I don’t think there will be another general lockdown at the previous level. It was overflowing hospitals and the risk of images of overflowing exhibition halls of dying people that promted the last one and I don’t see us getting back to that.

    Premier Icon TiRed
    Subscriber

    Mugboo thanks for those comments. Very insightful. What is more than evident is people are actually happy to comply with relatively severe restrictions when they can see the benefits. Of course the linkage of action and effect for that sacrifice are eventually lost. Worse, the timeframe between intervention and effect is surprisingly long (about two weeks), relax now and nothing bad happens, but in a month’s time cases will climb.

    As I have always said, we know what happens when things are normal. The trade-off to be chosen is how normal for what level of transmission, cases and deaths. Witty has been trying to give that message.

    Personally, schools going back will be a given and things will be managed accordingly elsewhere. Commuting and office usage will remain low. I don’t see good news for the entertainment industry either. Outdoor activities, with the exception of sports events can and have returned to normal. It’s not a disease you catch outside. Unless perhaps you are in a close crowd on a cold day.

    thecaptain
    Member

    We are more **** than I thought. If R were to go up by about 0.5 in Sept (ie to about 1.6 from the current 1.1) then the next wave would be a lot worse than the last one.

    An additional 0.5 just my guess for a “what if” calculation, but something of that order seems plausible since we are pushing 1 already with all the advantages of summer weather, schools shut, furlough still ongoing and lots of businesses running at half capacity.

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