Is that not typical evolution?

sorry that’s what I meant 🙂 I was confusing myself.

Well if the progenitor was SARS-CoV1 then, yes, pathogens evolve to reduced pathogenicity on average.

As for evolution of SARS-CoV2, I am less convinced at this point. It still is very early in the course of this pathogen.

Grrr…time to stand outside the town with a big sign stating **** off back home.

Theres a bike for sale in Kirkcud that I’ve had my eye on, think I’ll bring my southern infected ridden ass on up and spread some love while I buy it.

What bike?,

Well if the progenitor was SARS-CoV1 then, yes, pathogens evolve to reduced pathogenicity on average.

As for evolution of SARS-CoV2, I am less convinced at this point. It still is very early in the course of this pathogen.

I guess the other thing they evolve is to have the longest transmissible period where they can be transferred to a new host though?

As for lasting immunity, well even if it wears off over time, it’s reasonable to hope (agree it’s not proven) that subsequent infection would be milder and widespread partial immunity would keep the prevalence under control. A bit like colds and flu.

As for hospitalisations and deaths, it would be about 0.05% IFR for that age range, so 30 million cases would be about 15k deaths, though potentially rather lower if the vulnerable fraction within that age range could keep isolated (eg obese, diabetic, and other conditions with markedly poorer outcomes). Certainly a small number in comparison to what we’ve had so far, and currently there is no workable plan for any outcome other than cross our fingers and hope for a vaccine.

Have you worked out how many hospitalisations and deaths that is?

Off of the top of my head around 250,000 deaths if we ‘get it done’ in one go.

Maybe thecaptain could get a job working for Boris Bullshit?

Well if the progenitor was SARS-CoV1 then, yes, pathogens evolve to reduced pathogenicity on average.

As for evolution of SARS-CoV2, I am less convinced at this point. It still is very early in the course of this pathogen.

Luckily, we, and then the US, are providing plenty of hosts to allow the opportunity for mutation and get a swifter answer.

Maybe dannyh could read what I actually wrote and look up how the IFR varies with age.

Maybe dannyh could read what I actually wrote and look up how the IFR varies with age.

TBF I tried to take that into account which is why I didn’t come up with 360,000.

Deleted.

Didn’t think we had press conferences any more?

Ad-hoc pressers; not regular/routine.

“The government first took notice and acted on what was going on in Leicester on 8 June, because we could see that there was an issue there. We sent mobile testing units—four more mobile testing units—shortly thereafter.”

Hmmm they’re still not really getting it.

Ad-hoc pressers; not regular/routine.

Irregular Indoctrination 🙂

I think they’re planning a revival in the winter.

Downing Street to cut back Whitehall communications unit

(Sorry it’s a bit paywally but wanted to quote source)

Hmm what could possibly be happening this winter that HM Gov might want to draw public & media attention away from by reviving Covid briefings. Does it start with a B?

Bristmas?

Banta Claus?

Boris’ 3 pm Christmas Day Speech?

PHE now publishing Pillar 1 & 2 at local level. A couple of slightly different reports…

https://www.scribd.com/document/467854855/Rates-by-Lower-Tier-V1

https://www.scribd.com/document/467854853/Rates-by-Lower-Tier-V2

Thanks Neil O – those charts are really clear. Just to confirm they include P1+2 data?

Another, um, message to the public…

Is this advice, instruction, guidance, law…? Anyone…? https://t.co/btVGjU5kAu

— Kelvin Owers (@spittingcat) July 4, 2020

Remind me again – what are the quarantine rules?

https://news.sky.com/story/nigel-farage-appears-to-break-quarantine-rules-with-pub-photo-after-us-trip-12020998

Obviously they can’t possibly apply to someone as important as Farage.

The channel4 news from Soho was interesting. Not much social distancing.

Our local news was the same – either some strange and extended households, or 2 metres is much close than I thought.

dantsw13, yes, both Pillar 1 and 2.

Where is the pillar 2 data published Neil, I have t seen it for download. Pillar 1 I’ve been analysing for weeks at LTLA level. I thought I might apply the same metrics.

But you really need number of negative tests as well as positive.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Now Pillar 1 & 2

It does not give number of tests unfortunately

Interesting piece on how the role of scientific advisors has changed:

I worked to build a bridge between science and government. Now the relationship has broken down—costing thousands of lives

That’s been my source too, but I can’t see a separation between the two, which is what would be most helpful. testing frequency/100k is what matters.

That’s a good piece Bill. Sage should be helping government, and the public, to understand the science, not justifying the decisions the no10 ‘team’ has made.

Interesting piece on how the role of scientific advisors has changed:

The blame it on the science narrative seems to have taken very effectively. A month or so back the more pro-team Boris people I know were of the view it was a new situation, government was doing it’s best. Yesterday it was Team Boris hadn’t cocked anything up he had just received bad advice from the scientists.

We had our first day without Covid deaths today in Wales, I’m of course completely aware that it’s been helped by the usual weekend lag, but along with only 8 new reported cases I refuse to see it as anything but good news.

I’ve no idea how it will all pan out in Wales, but I hope that we have many more days like this, without the help of a weekend lag.

Well this is interesting – hypothesis that CV has been sleeping everywhere until now. But what is the basis of the stuff abouts bats and whatnot?

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/exclusive-covid-19-may-not-have-originated-in-china-oxford-university-expert-believes/ar-BB16mlly?ocid=msedgntp

Well this is interesting – hypothesis that CV has been sleeping everywhere until now. But what is the basis of the stuff abouts bats and whatnot?

There have been a few, I can’t think of a better word than ‘things’ recently that point towards COVID having been around for a lot longer than thought.

On one hand the idea it might just ‘go away’ is lovely thought, apart from the fact Trump pretty said it would and he’s just the kind of lucky fool to be right.

On the other hand, the whole ‘right environmental conditions’ is scary, what if it’s just sitting there in the systems of hundreds of thousands of people, waiting for summer to end.

Interesting theory – we had the “found in last year’s water samples” story a month or two back and then it went quiet on that front.

Not sure I buy into the theory yet without more concrete evidence – so it’s just lurking there waiting for just the right moment for it to emerge? Presumably it should then be traced in even older water samples? Or was it activated remotely by our evil reptilian overlords when they turned on the 5G towers?

Interesting BBC headline this morning announcing Mongolia had a case of bubonic plague, but on reading the details it appears it’s endemic around the world. May CV is, or will go, the same way.

Not sure I entirely buy the “it’s been everywhere for ages and suddenly just got switched on” angle.

What’s more likely, the magic sleeping worldwide virus, or, a bunch of folks actually had it following the real patient zero picking it up from bat/toad/dog, but either had a mild case, an asymptomatic case, or a serious case that was diagnosed as something else; then later, the wet market patient zero got identified with this new virus and presto, the bag was out of the cat.

Don’t get me wrong I don’t discount it being around for a long time, but the nature of exponential growth and all that, we’e still only detecting 10% of the cases, so it is entirely believable we had the same exponential growth for a long while before actually spotting it.

Interesting theory – we had the “found in last year’s water samples” story a month or two back and then it went quiet on that front.

I’d lay money on that Spanish one that detected from March 2019 being a lab cock up

(I work in a lab & have made many 😜)

Grim in Spain:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/spain-coronavirus-antibody-study-lancet-intl/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_content=2020-07-06T14%3A30%3A10&utm_source=twCNNi&utm_term=link

That study is from the end of May, looking at antibody results which looks back in time several weeks. So doesn’t really tell you anything useful at this point.

Of course, it could have been “everywhere” already (although I doubt that very much) before jumping species to us. Kitchen waste or run off from land could be the source of positive tests in sewers (if they aren’t just mistakes).

It can’t have been spreading exponentially from a significantly earlier time. If there were much earlier cases, either they just luckily didn’t spread at all (eg just a handful of cases coming from an animal source) or else it was a slightly different strain that was much less contagious.