Bugger Bedford and Central beds are nice and inside the top 30.
Personally we didn’t really ever release lockdown but don’t think we will have a choice shortly

BBC have now published a story saying that the lists are fake news and can’t be taken in isolation to predict where a lockdown might occur…which is interesting seeing as they were quick to jump on the story earlier with claims of where the next lockdowns might occur.

And all this would be avoidable if the government actually published all the data

Now Sky are saying there’s over 150 places on the new Lockdown list?  I mean seriously, this is just a second lockdown/wave isn’t it?

Now Sky are saying there’s over 150 places on the new Lockdown list

No they’re not, that list in that article is just the top 150 ordered by cases per 100000 in the last 7 days

And it’s not a second wave… it’s the long tail of the first wave that we haven’t finished the job of seeing off.

Do you know I’ve got some weirdness with my eye / contact lenses.  I think I need to stop reading the news until it goes away :-/

mudmuncher
Member

I hope this doesn’t lead to countries being secretive about promising new treatments for fear of the US buying up all the stock.

I hope it leads to every country with a pharma industry selling them sugar tablets for a fortune.

So the US has bought up the entire world supply of Remdesivir

It has a generic. If I was a government in Europe I’d just buy that and invite Gilead and the USA to swivel if they kick up a fuss over the patent law.

Speaking of America, looks like its out of control

States reported over 50k cases for the first time today, another new record. The national positivity rate is over 7% now, despite ever higher testing levels.
Hospitalizations are now at late-May levels. pic.twitter.com/erSW8W37jj

— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) July 1, 2020

4th July weekend as well

All those graphs are going up, except deaths are going down. Why is that?

Is it just that deaths lag behind the other indicators? Can’t be that because the peak in the deaths graph matches up with the timing of the peaks in the other graphs

The key thing there is that hospitalisations are up

Which ruins trump’s claim it’s all down to extra testing

Grim

Hopefully things are moving along with the app…

https://www.theregister.com/2020/07/01/germany_helping_uk_contact_tracing_app/

If we’re doing things like Germany, they have a cut-off of 50 cases per 100k for lockdowns

Then we’d have 6 regions locked down

Here’s the full dataset for all UK local areas: https://t.co/qHbfJfnWUC

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) July 1, 2020

Those stats aren’t terribly helpful in table form because they combine regions and subsets of regions in one list. 🙄

This won’t come as a surprise, but the PHE datasets for NHS cases and deaths are not broken down in the same way as the ONS data – (which is nation, country, upper tier local authority, lower tier local authority). Some NHS trusts may be in the North East, but. Fall in NHS North East etc… Honestly you couldn’t make it up.

So merging pillar 1 and pillar 2 data (when it comes) by authority is nontrivial. Anyway I have yet to see the data but the ONS LTLA data for hospitals showed the same effect in the East Midlands and has for some time.

The key thing there is that hospitalisations are up

The per-state graphs were quite enlightening, it simply looks like the first wave of infection is still sweeping across the continent.

As TiReD has repeatedly pointed out, looking at numbers for a country the size of the US may not be that helpful, the “unit of infection” is much smaller.

The US can be viewed in the same way as the whole of the EU. Think of NY State as Italy. Now add all those countries/states together…

The effect of later importation is a time delay in exponential growth. The epidemic spread is muted for the later countries/states due to earlier lockdown (in theory), but releasing all at the same time will not have the same effect everywhere. Sounds obvious when you say it. The net effect is a longer flatter peak in the epidemic. EU started within about three weeks of each other, probably from a common event (skiing holiday). The US may have had multiple importations or with country spread.

A one size fits all can’t be the answer though in a country that size. Possibly not in the U.K. either. Epidemics are stabilised to local extinction by movements across borders. Be it in a hospital (Ward to ward), a town (home to school), a county (commuting, goods distribution), a country or a continent.

The genie is out of the bottle.

Kryton57

Do you know I’ve got some weirdness with my eye / contact lenses. I think I need to stop reading the news until it goes away :-/

Pop the family in the car and drive to Barnard Castle… soon sort that out.

Never mind Barnard Castle. Think bigger. How about Greece?

https://twitter.com/TomEPPayne/status/1278594574986944512?s=20

Face coverings mandatory in shops as of next week in Scotland. Makes sense.

Yep, think that’s necessary- still probably no more than a quarter of people wearing them when I’ve been in the shops, it seems to be soemthing Scotland’s not “got”

Aye, I’d say even less then that here, and lots of them not covering their nostrils. 🙈

Guy on the train today (into London), no mask & left a pile of tissues on the table when he got off

Well dressed elder gentleman too fwiw

A lot of people haven’t got it

A friend of mine works in a supermarket – she has some hilarious stories about what people wear on their faces – esp older people for some reason, who maybe can’t see well enough what they have fished out of the pants drawer.

I keep one in my bag just in case (mask, not pants) I am asked to put in on in a shop.

I have been in one shop since they re-opened and I asked the woman working there – she said she tried a mask but it got so hot and hard to breath.

Wearing a mask but pulled down below the nose is also quite popular.

I’m usually the only mask-wearer when I’m shopping. Compulsion can’t come soon enough.

No social distancing for under 11s either.

Never mind Barnard Castle. Think bigger. How about Greece?

“Covid proofing my villa”

That’s a cracker.

5 mile restriction on movement to stay in place for covid cluster in Dumfries & Galloway

What is the **** point of opening up scotland to every rancid covid infected **** south of the border to move freely around scotland whilst dropping the virus around to all and sundry?.

As far as i know my home town of Kirkcudbright has been entirely covid free so far (small town so news travels fast and no one knows of any cases) but there is an alarming amount of tourists already arriving and walking aimlessly about in the area now that restrictions are to be lifted, from zero waiting in queue to access the wee supermarket last week to queue’s of 10/20 folk the past couple of days.

Grrr…time to stand outside the town with a big sign stating **** off back home.

Mrs Sturgeon also asked people not to cross the border to visit pubs in England at the weekend! Fair one I think.

@somafink I know the feeling. Langholm is still under the “old” rules, and only a few miles from us. Fortunately we’re too far south of the tweed to be attractive to those heading there. But i can see us being sandwiched between two lockdown areas and so for ease also locked down.
I’m hoping things improve in D&G as i was hoping to catch up with some pals from KBT Academy at the end of July but we’re all waiting to see.

As far as i know my home town of Kirkcudbright has been entirely covid free so far (small town so news travels fast and no one knows of any cases)

I wouldn’t rely on the jungle drums. I’ve heard the same said about other small towns where cases have, indeed, been detected.

Are we seeing an atypical virus evolution…. easier to catch but less lethal ?

scotroutes : my doc dropped his bike off last weekend so i could do a quick service and sort his gears out and he mentioned that we have been very fortunate in the town to escape the virus so i took that to mean there has been no cases so far

And on another note regarding campsites etc it appears the local campsites/caravan parks are not opening up so thats good.

Travel appears to have changed from a few travel corridors to, reportedly, dozens of exempt countries. Anyone else thinking it’s the usual talk a good game and then go f-it that’s far too much work for Funtime on you go folks. The whole doing it all at No10 approach does just seem to continually churn out reckless, feckless or blatantly for self interest bodge jobs. No doubt Mr Cummings views on civil servants needing to face consequences for failure don’t apply to him.

Are we seeing an atypical virus evolution…. easier to catch but less lethal ?

Is that not typical evolution? something that causes instant death is very difficlut to pass on, something where people can go about their daily lives breathing on, hugging and touching stuff without even knowing they have a problem, or thinking it is so minor they may as well carry on is very transmittable.

Different patterns of contact may mean the spread is currently restricted mostly to younger/fitter people – which would be great so long as they don’t then go and have contact with more vulnerable people.

If we could infect 100% of the under-50s (excluding particularly vulnerable) and none of the over 60s then it would be pretty much job done at minimal harm. NB I’m not pretending there would be zero harm, there would still be death and serious long-term illness for a small proportion. But that’s happening anyway, with no end in sight.

If we could infect 100% of the under-50s (excluding particularly vulnerable) and none of the over 60s then it would be pretty much job done at minimal harm

Assumes lasting immunity post infection. This is far from established, sadly.

I’m not pretending there would be zero harm

Have you worked out how many hospitalisations and deaths that is?