@petefromearth – I mentioned this weeks ago. These people are dying because of Covid, not dying with it. The words are very important.

So the US has bought up the entire world supply of Remdesivir

This just shows how insular and selfish the American government has got.  By god that nation has gone backward a rate of knots.

Anyway, to post something more positive this morning I’m paying the VED and taking the car for a drive at lunchtime, first time I’ve driven for 3 months!

Anyway, to post something more positive this morning I’m paying the VED and taking the car for a drive at lunchtime, first time I’ve driven for 3 months!

I’m sure its positive on a personal level but a significantly reduced number of cars on the roads has been one of the few positives of the virus.

It’s a fair point.  The car needs a run though and I need to get some paint for the weekend and a few other bits so to be fair it’ll be properly warmed up on a 20 min motorway cruise going the long way around and takes into account what could have been several Independent trips.

It’s also not something I’ll be doing every day of course.

Anyway, to post something more positive this morning I’m paying the VED and taking the car for a drive at lunchtime, first time I’ve driven for 3 months!

Are you sure your eyesight is up to driving?

Are you sure your eyesight is up to driving?

That a good point.  As I’m from London I best use the Government’s demonstrable guidance to find out by using the same route…

Anyway, to post something more positive this morning I’m paying the VED and taking the car for a drive at lunchtime, first time I’ve driven for 3 months!

Enjoy! I did the same with the motorbike last week and that’s the first time it’s been ridden since October.

In fact,I’m very skeptical that it’s doing anything. And it’s my day job to test these things! Now dexamethasone, that’s a different matter. As will be tocilizumab/sarilumab in the most severe patients. The anti-Covid antibodies will also be along soon. I have a lot more faith in those.

That was my impression, too. Cheers.

So, looking at the local data, who’s next for local lockdown? I’m looking at Bradford and seeing a lot of similarities in terms of in-hospital positive testing.

Unfortunately, it’s going to be hotspot after hotspot from now on. Whack-a-mole is the perfect analogy.

New Scientist on Scotland’s approach.

Puts forward Scotland might actually get to virus controlled if it weren’t for England.

You’re all thinking it wrong. You should be thinking “low spots” Not “hot spots”. These are early days for an endemic pathogen which has been experienced by about 5% of the population – three times that in London. You read it here first.

Lockdown was about gaining breathing space not eradication.

Unfortunately, it’s going to be hotspot after hotspot from now on. Whack-a-mole is the perfect analogy.

Wasn’t it always a case of hotspots, there were just a lot of them. Now we are just hoping there aren’t going to be multiple simultaneous large flare ups. Guess the question is have we got to the point where it’s just going to keep smouldering away or have we just created the ideal conditions for flare ups. I’m going for the latter unless we get a big shift in messaging and attitudes. I did have a WTF moment when July 4th was referred to as Super Saturday – unless we get away from seeing things a life style experience and back to life and death then I can’t see how we get a handle on this.

Whackamole is the perfect analogy. Once you see the mole and **** it over the head the mole has already dug up half the lawn and copped off with Mrs Mole who is now carrying a litter of ten more moles.

Spaffs sometimes gets things right, but mostly by the same means that a broken clock gets the time right twice every day.

It’s Boris – The Phantom Raspberry Blower of Old London Town is more likely

Nope, they’ll satisfy themselves with travelling 5-10 miles outside the city and descending on pubs in the surrounding towns and villages like a plague of locusts.

So this means that the infection area circumference will be pushed out by that 5-10 miles every time. They’ll then lockdown that area, those people then drive the 5-10 miles to the next towns etc, etc.

Except in this case the mole is not receiving the fatal whack. I’m reading that the Leicester issue is related to garment sweatshops where workers were told to report to work even though furlough money had been claimed. Apparently participating in religious festivals has put some minority groups way above the going rate. Why would Suppurate Saturday being any different?

Uh oh

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-bradford-and-london-boroughs-among-36-at-risk-areas-that-could-be-just-days-away-from-local-lockdowns-12018594

My London borough is in there…   how does this news feel amongst the potential pub goers of the weekend?  One would hope they lock it down right away, but I’m kinda almost convinced to put my mortgage on the fact it’ll be next Monday, right…?

It is believed that the City of Bradford and boroughs in London, including Brent and Harrow, could be the next to lockdown after sources confirmed there were an increased number of COVID-19 cases over the last week.

Well, that didn’t take long!

Lockdown was about gaining breathing space not eradication.

That was a political choice, and the wrong one.

We absolutely should be eradicating, and then opening up with a working track/trace/isolate system in place (that includes local bodies being given full information and the means to act, and the existence of a mobile app to help us do our bit). We should safely have all our kids back at school, and be using public transport relatively normally again… the fact that we are not is down to the political decisions of this government.

x100000, kelvin

Success for UK would have looked like Germany.

One would hope they lock it down right away, but I’m kinda almost convinced to put my mortgage on the fact it’ll be next Monday, right…?

You would have to marvel and the folly if the government go for spin over substance and hold off because it doesn’t fit with the fourth timeline. Have they even changed the alert level? Although this situation does expose the flaws in that scale – seeing as it appears it was written to be all about coming out rather than understanding going back. Even if it went back to go level 4 the action is maintain the current levels. They would need to be at level 5 for action to address the flare up.

Not forgetting that thousands of people should be alive now, or in far better health, but are not, through political choice. And thousands more will have their fate sealed in the upcoming months. A poltical choice. Still… 4th July… let’s party…

I’m reading that the Leicester issue is related to garment sweatshops where workers were told to report to work even though furlough money had been claimed.

Meanwhile, on local news they have been reporting closures of schools and meat factories in the city for a couple of weeks now.

I’ve said it before, but we are in an era of a fifth coronavirus. I don’t believe in eradication. Cross-transmission and importation will be with us regardless of local lockdowns. But I absolutely believe in protecting the most vulnerable. The lack of testing and discharging into nursing homes has been an abject failure in that regard.

That’s where I would be placing all my efforts in time for schools reopening (local transmission), universities returning (mass regional mixing) and winter.

Edit:Wrong thread

I don’t believe in eradication.

You don’t believe in eradication in the UK. Other countries have it as a short term political aim, ‘till either care or prophylactic measures are good enough for us to “live with” the virus. That is how you protect the vulnerable in the short term, not lock them and their families and carers off from a population that keeps the virus spreading thanks to a political choice that we should accept that.

I don’t believe in eradication. Cross-transmission and importation will be with us regardless of local lockdowns.

It just feels that there hasn’t been enough emphasis on damping down and keeping down so there is atleast a fighting chance of containment for future flare ups. Scotland seems to have achieved the damp down very effectively but has a very real and risk of rapid importation flare ups from England. I am very concerned team Boris is very much the Sun has got his hat on hip hip hip hurray / Happy Days are here again. The latter being particularly appropriate given the latest round of How Boris am I, How Boris am I, what a fine day for rehashing old cash and claiming to be Franklin D Roosevelt. You’d kind of want them to be pushing the risk / mitigation message harder but that’s just not jolly.

Be upbeat. Show some guts. Fine parents. Spread the bonhomie (not the virus, somehow).

Timing is everything…

Earlier into lockdown. Earlier out.

Get track/trace/isolate in place before coming out, not months afterwards.

Test in the community when the epidemic is growing, not afterwards.

Lockdown care homes before sending infected people into them, not afterwards.

Quarantine people when the countries they are coming from are struggling with the virus, not after the have it under control.

Boris is Captain of the Golgafrinchan B Ark.

That’s where I would be placing all my efforts in time for schools reopening (local transmission), universities returning (mass regional mixing) and winter.

Here in MK weve had a nursery & school had to close down because of children, staff & parents getting it
https://www.miltonkeynes.co.uk/health/coronavirus/nursery-centre-covid-19-outbreak-assures-people-there-no-risk-wider-public-milton-keynes-2895764

we were on a list in the Express ! of regions likely to go into lockdown, presumably because of this one flare up

but the official stats say only 2 new cases in the last week, presumably this is because the pillar 2 data is not being made public

My colleague at Mk hosital says theyve reopend a covid ward & have one serious case in there

either way the local facebook groups are having a meltdown!

Lets hope the government are learning from all this before schools/unis go back in autimn/winter

Hopefully they will, but they really do seem to make things harder for themselves & all of us

Well, I was wrong about trusting people to wear masks properly. After seeing a clip of passengers and staff at Man airport preparing for fights, there were quite a few with masks off their nose, touching their masks continuously and fiddling with them.

Wash hands thoroughly,
Get a mask that fits properly and DON’T touch it until you can safely dispose of it (or better still get a re-usable mask that can be washed at 60), when it’s safe to take off.
Then wash hands thoroughly once again.

It is believed that the City of Bradford and boroughs in London, including Brent and Harrow, could be the next to lockdown

So putting an arbitrary lines along streets in a metropolis like London, without any reliable testing and any actual enforcement is going to achieve……what?

This was a balls up from the moment we didn’t lockdown early and properly. Without a proper test, track and trace, this is all basically a waste of time.

So this means that the infection area circumference will be pushed out by that 5-10 miles every time. They’ll then lockdown that area, those people then drive the 5-10 miles to the next towns etc, etc.

Yep, and I live 5-10 miles outside Leicester’s ‘naughty boy lockdown line’, so all the peckerheads are heading in my direction. Leicester is c.600,000. If 1% are peckerheads (it is more) then that is 6,000 people who are going to tunnel under the wall* to go for a pint in surrounding villages and towns. Then we’re locked down for two weeks, despite the fact that the damage has already been done and a further 5-10 miles gets locked down next time.

*Drive down a totally open and unpatrolled road.

Too little, too late, and not done properly. The English covid response perfectly illustrated.

Then we’re locked down for two weeks, despite the fact that the damage has already been done and a further 5-10 miles gets locked down next time.

Leicester is pretty much bang in the middle of England. how many weeks before this creeping wall of misery encompasses us all?

The idea is return to level 4 for the city? Then level 3 for the buffer zone? Being overly cautious I’d want be seeing atleast 10miles at level 3. Then County / regional – movement restrictions on top of that. Stressing of biosecurity nationally and really ramming that message home locally. That said, seeing as this was seen as a high case area 8 days ago I’m thinking it’s already too late.

It is amazing the government have a list of areas and a risk and an alert scale but don’t seem to be using it. County level might be too broad and district / borough level is better.

Germany is looking at making lockdowns a more local thing than the existing district/borough approach. I watch in near dismay as they iterate through their post-national lockdown phase, improving their response style each time, and compare it to the UK, currently looking for its arse with both hands.

Well, as Derbyshire is on the Daily Express List of Doom I shall look forward to an imminent announcement.

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/

Pretty graphs from Cambridge

Not forgetting that thousands of people should be alive now, or in far better health, but are not, through political choice. And thousands more will have their fate sealed in the upcoming months. A poltical choice.

That is nothing new. An NHS with unlimited funding would be able to give better treatment and better support to a wide range of physical and mental health conditions. There is a political decision regarding how much money to give the NHS which ultimately means thousands die or live in misery every year. This year its being reported on the news, most years those people just suffer quietly waiting for treatment that may never come.

Currently – these people die of this novel Coronavirus even with the best medical care available to them. We can not save them just by “supercharging” the NHS. We need to keep the virus away from people ‘till we know enough to save more lives when people get the virus, or have ways of stopping people transmitting/catching the virus. This medical emergency is precisely because the virus is “new”. So this is new.

I’m with you on NHS funding, and the political decisions around them, but we are currently at the stage with this virus that actions need to happen outside the NHS to save lives.

oldagedpredator Subscriber
The idea is return to level 4 for the city? Then level 3 for the buffer zone? Being overly cautious I’d want be seeing atleast 10miles at level 3. Then County / regional – movement restrictions on top of that. Stressing of biosecurity nationally and really ramming that message home locally. That said, seeing as this was seen as a high case area 8 days ago I’m thinking it’s already too late.

It doesn’t fell like there’s any idea. As far as I can tell, there’s a map that’s been produced with a red line around the city and some of the county. Within that line, non-essential shops closed yesterday, school’s close tomorrow and none of the of the 4th July relaxations are happening. On top of this, it’s been ‘recommended’ that no non essential travel is taken. No idea on exercise, meeting people etc. it’s just not been communicated.

This was said to be for two weeks, which in theroy started yesterday but I read today that it’ll be reviewed on the 18th, pretty much 3 weeks. To me, due to my lifestyle and work, it feels pretty much like I’m back at the 23rd March for another 3 weeks.

Where I live, is within the Charnwood Borough, same as dannyh, about half a mile inside the red line.

So the US has bought up the entire world supply of Remdesivir

I hope this doesn’t lead to countries being secretive about promising new treatments for fear of the US buying up all the stock.