I think the Leicester roads may be rather busy over the next ~12 hours, having announced local local lockdown there, with Hancock having just said “We recommend to people in Leicester, stay at home as much as you can, and we recommend against all but essential travel to, from and within Leicester.” Unless of course they are doing the logical thing behind the scenes, without announcing that, they have in fact blocked every road out of the hotspot.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53229371

No-one is stopping me going out and cycling or walking huge distances either, not even over the borders

No one is stopping you bringing the correct amount of water with you either? And if water is not readily available when you are out and about then plan your trip accordingly.

The water isn’t a problem and using a tap with aseptic technique isn’t rocket science either.

It’s not..but getting people to adhere to it probably is. You only need 1 clown to stick his mouth round the tap and you have an issue. It’s surely not up for debate that leaving public water taps off is probably a sensible measure??

Just how are people supposed to know toilets are close and taps not working and plan according? That’s why people were complaining about shit earlier, because people literally got caught short by an unexpected closure – telepathy?

You only need one clown to so many things to spread the virus but people don’t stick their mouths around taps at public tolets, they just don’t, people here are civilised, I assume they are where you live too.

There are plenty of potential vectors out there, cashpoint machines, lift buttons, traffic light buttons, supermarket trolleys, door handles, library books and videos, goods in shops, petrol pump pistols – just to mention a few I’ve been aware of whilst “protecting myslef and others”… why discriminate against a tap which provides the most vital thing to human life?

Just how are people supposed to know toilets are close and taps not working and plan according

In the UK you’d need to be pretty unaware to not realise that public toilets aren’t open. They’ve been closed uk wide for months..

people don’t stick their mouths around taps at public tolets

I have no idea if they do or not i wouldn’t consider drinking out a tap from a public toilet regardless of the situation, but it’s not too much of a stretch to think if you really needed a drink and didn’t have a cup you’d just drink directly from tap.

Either way, I stand by my point, if you run out of water you are badly organised.

Just how are people supposed to know toilets are close and taps not working and plan according?

Just taking a wild punt here, but how about checking the local district council website. The local one to me has regular updates. Crazy idea I know, but why not give it a whirl.

There’s actually an app for it

https://www.lockdownloo.com/

My mum has bladder problems & it’s been a big issue for her, but public toilets have been a problem for years

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/27/britain-public-toilets-coronavirus-private-interests

If this ‘potential’ becomes reality, we’ll be prepared – won’t we?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53218704

I live what looks like being 5 or 6 miles outside where I think the line will be drawn around Leicester.

All the rural and satellite town pubs are planning to open on 4th July. Does anyone want to have a guess what is going to happen next?

Unless there are police on every road out if the city it isn’t going to work. Sure, restaurants could cancel all bookings with a Leicester dial code on the contact numbers, but most people leave a mobile number nowadays. They could ring all their bookings with a mobile number, but what % will just lie?

Remember back in the halcyon days of Feb when a handful of cases countrywide were being tracked? Can’t do that now, so we are relying on the ‘great’ british public are we? Welcome to second spike Britain everyone.

Was wondering how this would work. I live on the outskirts of Derby (about 100m outside the City Boundary in terms of councils) which would be where I would imagine the line would be drawn if Derby were to see a spike. So I can move freely but people 100m away wouldn’t be able to.

It is the only way to deal with hotspots. Which is why you need fast accurate reporting of where the issues are, so you can lock down as small an area as possible as quickly as possible.

I don’t see how the police have the resources to control it, especially a city the size of Leicester. I suspect it will need more boots on the ground from the Forces. Other countries have had to do that.

Fair play to Piers Morgan again this morning, appealing to the people of Leicester to do the right thing, follow the instructions and stop the virus spreading.

See California and Florida for post Pub news…

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-us-bars-shut-their-doors-as-cases-rise-and-hospitals-fill-up-in-the-sunshine-state-surge-12017762

Worrying times ahead…

Was wondering how this would work. I live on the outskirts of Derby (about 100m outside the City Boundary in terms of councils) which would be where I would imagine the line would be drawn if Derby were to see a spike. So I can move freely but people 100m away wouldn’t be able to.

It would need a properly resourced police force and a joined up strategy between them, the government and the armed forces.

So no chance, then.

Kryton, you seem to go looking for stuff to worry about at times. The states is a complete bit of a mess, the whole country is too big, too diverse and too entrenched in nonsense to have any kind of methodical approach to this kind of thing.

Better to have a look at the countries around us for examples of progression out of this, yes there will be hotspots, but other countries are managing them too. Scots and NI governments seem to be managing not too badly either.

Scots and NI governments seem to be managing not too badly either.

Only By luck of cases being low when ukgov announced lock down. I don’t believe for 1 minute Scotland would have dared to lock down so early relative had the boot been on the other foot.

Only By luck of cases being low when ukgov announced lock down. I don’t believe for 1 minute Scotland would have dared to lock down so early relative had the boot been on the other foot.

We’ll never know tbh, I think NS must cast an envious eye towards the likes of NZ, where the boss actually has some proper powers, and can act in the best interests of her nation, without a shower of buffoons diluting the message every day.

You only have to look at the divergance of numbers to see the difference the message has made up here, we were on a similar trend to England at one point…

Indeed trend but our actual numbers were still magnitudes lower than England. That made the odds forever in our favour 😉

But yes . Jacinda Arderne . That’s how it’s done. Knew we should not have come back from NZ 🙂

Only By luck of cases being low when ukgov announced lock down. I don’t believe for 1 minute Scotland would have dared to lock down so early relative had the boot been on the other foot.

Take the example of Schools… Scotland and NI announced their closures and England followed. There are other examples, including closing building sites. If Scotland and NI hadn’t moved, the UK measures may well have been introduced even later, as Cummings dragged his heals.

Indeed trend but our actual numbers were still magnitudes lower than England. That made the odds forever in our favour

IIRC at the height of this, and for a fair few weeks after, our daily deaths were fairly reflective of Englands, in terms of population, ie not far off 1/10th of their number?.

A thought just occurred to me. This focus on local outbreaks and local lockdowns has a big advantage for Joris.

It is likely to obscure an objective view of what such upsurges mean in a national sense (I.e. a clear second spike when viewed nationally). Blaming individual areas or cities takes the heat off of the incompetents at the top.

And there is already a nasty racial element being brought into ‘conversation’ around Leicester as a city being first into ‘naughty boy’ lockdown.

Indeed trend but our actual numbers were still magnitudes lower than England. That made the odds forever in our favour 😉

To be fair, its not unusual to have numbers magnitudes lower than England.

England has the bestymost numbers ever! for a developed nation.

Every other country is looking at our successes. Must be true, Boris said so.

Indeed trend but our actual numbers were still magnitudes lower than England. That made the odds forever in our favour

IIRC at the height of this, and for a fair few weeks after, our daily deaths were fairly reflective of Englands, in terms of population, ie not far off 1/10th of their number?.

Quite. Scotland’s figure’s have been largely on a par with the UK average. A little better than England, worse than Wales and NI. Also up there with the worst of Europe, too (Somewhere around Spain and Belgium IIRC).

On a facts and figures front, in a slightly worrying trend it seems the daily death rate in the UK has stuck solid at around 130/day for about two weeks now.

On a facts and figures front, in a slightly worrying trend it seems the daily death rate in the UK has stuck solid at around 130/day for about two weeks now.

From https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/deaths

Latest 7 day average from 26 June – 117
7 day average from 2 weeks ago, 12 June – 164

And there is already a nasty racial element being brought into ‘conversation’ around Leicester as a city being first into ‘naughty boy’ lockdown

Knowing the apparently affected areas of Leicester through work, and the areas of Derby that were affected most when it was a hotspot, there are clearly social/cultural/demographic aspects that may be factors – as in the discussion about BAME death rates generally. I’ve not yet seen any “nasty racial” elements being bandied around though?

And there is already a nasty racial element being brought into ‘conversation’ around Leicester as a city being first into ‘naughty boy’ lockdown.

There is indeed a rather unpleasant racial undercurrent to this, from the usual ‘blame the immigrants and brown people’ idiots

It’s a bit more complicated than that though. The demographics are that if you live in a poorer area, for all manner of reasons, you’re far more likely to be infected. So we now have the case where, if there are to be more localised lockdowns, then they are pretty certain to be in poorer areas with large BAME populations, whereas leafier, whiter, middle-class areas will be unaffected.

I can’t see any potential problems there, can you?

Was I being overly cynical to check who the MPs / voting preferences of Leicester as the first thing I did when I heard it was being locked down again? (Labour btw)

I haven’t seen any solid numbers on how much worse it is in Leicester than anywhere else – is it the worse place in England for example? Does anyone have a link?

I can’t help but think (whether it’s true or not) that someone in the government has decided that they’ve got to show they’re determined to stop Covid, and asked for a list of places that had higher levels, and then just picked the least tory one of them?

A bit like Alderaan?

I haven’t seen any solid numbers on how much worse it is in Leicester than anywhere else – is it the worse place in England for example? Does anyone have a link?

the government are not sharing the data

Leicester council were complaining that even tough Hancock said it was a hotspot 2 weeks ago the government wouldnt share with the LA which areas in particular were most effected

Theres a lot of centralised control freakery from government

From https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/deaths

Latest 7 day average from 26 June – 117
7 day average from 2 weeks ago, 12 June – 164

Hmm.

The Worldometers data I scraped looks slightly different. C’est la vie. Last two weeks of rolling averages I get are:

155 [15 Jun]
146
144
140
132
133
130
137
133
135
136
132
131 [27th Jun]

I haven’t seen any solid numbers on how much worse it is in Leicester than anywhere else – is it the worse place in England for example? Does anyone have a link?

Quite widely reported yesterday that Leicester accounts for 10% of infections in England in the last couple of weeks. For a city of around 330,000 people, that’s significant.

I don’t doubt that those numbers are serious enough to warrant a more stringent lockdown. I do wonder if it hasn’t helped Boris look more decisive and “in charge” though to some of his wavering supporters.

I haven’t seen any solid numbers on how much worse it is in Leicester than anywhere else – is it the worse place in England for example? Does anyone have a link?

The official published stats are for confirmed cases, and there is a lag so don’t show the current position – I believe this is based on ‘from the ground’ figures on both suspected and newly-confirmed cases only, which show a significant spike.

FWIW, the measures they’ve taken seem proportionate and realistic. We’ll see if they work, and how quickly. And whether people looking forward to a beer in Leicester on Saturday just head off to Derby.

What was interesting was Hancock talking about how they’d already shut some factories and schools where there was evidence of spread. And that they’d closed one in Keighley, near me, at some other point, which came as a bit of a surprise…

A bit like Alderaan?

More like Jedha in Rogue One really.

And that they’d closed one in Keighley, near me, at some other point, which came as a bit of a surprise…

the Keighey thing was a hancockup

Just to calm everyone down a bit…
There's no new COVID-19 spike in Keighley. @MattHancock confused Keighley with a different area on TV and radio this morning.
Please keep maintaining social distance & washing hands so we don’t need to announce a local outbreak in the future.

— Bradford Council (@bradfordmdc) June 30, 2020

Idiot!

Interesting that disproportionate number of children infected in leicester too

I haven’t seen any solid numbers on how much worse it is in Leicester than anywhere else – is it the worse place in England for example? Does anyone have a link?

From BBC report,
‘Mr Hancock said Leicester’s seven-day infection rate of 135 cases per 100,000 people was “three times higher than the next highest city” and admissions to hospital were between six and 10 per day – compared to about one a day at other trusts.

He said “targeted action” at factories, workplaces and schools over the past 10 days had not worked, meaning stronger measures were needed.

“We’ve been taking this highly localised approach but unfortunately that targeted action wasn’t working in Leicester and that’s why we have taken this much broader measure,” he said.’

Hmm.

The Worldometers data I scraped looks slightly different. C’est la vie. Last two weeks of rolling averages I get are:

That got me curious so I did a bit of comparison – Worldometer reports 280 deaths for 23rd June, UK Gov has 171 which is also the number given in the Twitter source linked to from Worldometer’s UK update for 23rd June.

Worldometer error in your favour.

Collect £100.

This is the first time I’ve posted on this thread, having read most of it.

I’m just inside the red zone, by about half a mile ish. I’ll comply with the new rules, like I have all the way through but I’m utterly dejected with it to be honest. I know there are far more people worse off than me but I’ve been sat at my desk all morning not being able to work thinking about being able to do very little again 🙁

What I can’t work out, is with our ‘world class’ track and trace system, is why a smaller area hasn’t been identified earlier and locked down in a similar way. They’ve been talking about the Leicester issue for 11 days and numbers going back nearly a month!

Slight rant over, sorry!

Sorry to hear that Sam, chin up buddy.

Thanks Greg, first Lakes trip since it all kicked off was supposed to be on the 12th, that won’t be happening now. And accommodation in the weeks after looks non existent.