What? When? Why? How? Where?

July?

When do the pubs open?

😉

Vaccination is a strategy.

Herd immunity as a strategy is do nothing.

Vaccination when you don’t have a vaccine is doing nothing.

The end goal of vaccination *is* herd immunity.

In the long run the world *will* [1] end up with herd immunity to CV.

What percentage of people gain resistance from catching it and what percentage of people will develop resistance from a vaccine will depend entirely on how long a vaccine takes to release in large numbers and how fast the disease spreads.

[1] Almost certainly.

The summer aspect is simply because it is seen in flu, so they are hopinh out will be analogous, it seems to happen as a result of a few aspects partly because people are more spread out and get outside, there may be an aspect of uv causing a faster degradation of virus too.

Except it seems to be doing quite nicely in warmer climates.

I was wondering how it’s going to stack up with hay fever – usually flu is gone by hay fever season. Now we are going to mix up allergic reaction that can cause breathing difficulties with virus that can cause breathing difficulties.

Also Kenyan health ministry has just developed a new test based on their experiences with HIV and malaria, they’re going to test 35 thousand people every 24 hours.

Antibody or antigen?

Either way, assuming it’s easy to produce in large numbers, I’d have thought almost every government in the world would want a license for that and would be willing to pay top dollar.

Anyway. Epidemic is predicted to be over by July. Globally. You heard it here second.

Will it be over by the 31st July. Just so I know if I can get away somewhere for my birthday*

*as my employer is fighting to continue existing beyond its 120th year I rather imagine my birthday will involve frugal activity

@oldagedpredator
I think after the deaths have been assessed the impact on lung disease is going to be bad, you have to assume there will be a large increase in copd, asthma, and other inflammatory respiratory diseases.
Plus having issues with lungs will likely lead to more flu deaths etc.
covid19 the gift that keeps on giving

The problem with attaining herd immunity via that route is maths, basically. We don’t know how long survivors will gain immunity for, or how reliably. But it needs to be very long and very reliable, it’s the only way it works- because the rate of infection has to be kept low to avoid overwhelming hospitals, which makes the volume of survivors low. So the rate of loss or failure of immunity needs to be even lower so that the level of immunity can rise at all, let alone rise to the levels required, otherwise we’re basing all our hopes on filling a bowl that leaks faster than we can fill it. Even the most optimistic infection rate figures still rely on a long and strong immunity- a big bowl that doesn’t leak much.

Seems to me, as long as the virus remains fairly widely circulating, I RECKON anyone who’s raised an immune response is likely to maintain it as they’ll be continuously exposed. So in the context of a prolonged outbreak with still a relatively high number of new cases, they’ll maintain it – perhaps healthcare workers in particular since their working environment will have higher exposure

Final end is always hard. Because of stochastic noise. So I picked 10/day as nominal end.

Final end is always hard. Because of stochastic noise. So I picked 10/day as nominal end.

Does that mean you were serious about global end by July? I thought you were joking.

Outofbreath.

Can’t give you the details on the Kenyan test, Mrs was reading the news there as we were talking on WhatsApp.

I’m just gobsmacked that all the things we are talking about here (testimg, trackimg, face masks, sanitizer etc) are being acted on in a country with a fraction of the resources we have here.

Most of what we are discussing here is speculation about a virus we have little understanding of. That’s fair enough, were all looking for whatever information we can get our hands on and this thread has been more informative than most media sources (thanks to all the medical staff and researchers that have been posting).

I’m no expert and in truth, seeing as we don’t have a full understanding of the virus there are no experts as yet. That being the case I’m most interested in what we can do about something given that we don’t fully understand it. What can we do that doesn’t have a downside, that isn’t just rolling the dice? Using masks, sanitizer, doing tracking and testing don’t have a downside as far as I can see.

Why can a country like Kenya be ahead of us on all these points when they are 2 months behind us in terms of the outbreak?

I think Holyrood is expecting another 12-13 weeks of significant lock down.

Which is early July. But even if that happens, what it looks like I’m not sure.

Staged seems probable with the dance/intermittent measures to follow. Then effective testing and tracing. Then carry on until vaccine or eradication. Or both.

Seems to me, as long as the virus remains fairly widely circulating, I RECKON anyone who’s raised an immune response is likely to maintain it as they’ll be continuously exposed.

I’ll let you know how that works out as a theory.

Why can a country like Kenya be ahead of us on all these points when they are 2 months behind us in terms of the outbreak?

I think you’ve partially answered your own question there.

Being behind in infections is helping them not hindering them.

It should have helped us too…

Final end is always hard. Because of stochastic noise. So I picked 10/day as nominal end.

Does that mean you have “final” figures for UK?

Why can a country like Kenya be ahead of us on all these points when they are 2 months behind us in terms of the outbreak?

Maybe as they’ve had a lot more models to look at, there’s cultural difference too and the enforced we of controlling a lockdown at such short notice. Then there’s they are 2 months behind so we’ll see long term how it it compares to other countries.

So what’s the end goal of a herd immunity strategy when you don’t have a vaccination?

Vaccination is a means to the end of herd immunity, but when ‘herd immunity’ was touted as the ‘clever’ ‘grand plan’ a few weeks ago it was implicitly as a means, just like putting out a fire isn’t a strategy but an end; the use of a fire extinguisher is the strategy (means). And if it was as an end then the means (the strategy) was actually passivity. It’s a strategy of do nothing.

were serious about global end by July?

Hasn’t said which July.

they’ll maintain it – perhaps healthcare workers in particular since their working environment will have higher exposure

as long as they get mild symptoms

in the worst cases this virus seems to be triggering a cytokine storm- where your immune system goes into overdrive, causing massive inflamation in the lungs & potentially killing them.

as graham points out there will be many left with life changing disability, putting further strain n healthcare, not to mention that NHS workers are already being pushed to the max, long shifts in full PPE are already taking their toll

in other news Im 3D printing some surgical mask adaptors for a colleague whos on the COVID ward at MK hospital, wearing the masks looped over the ear for long times is apparently uncomfortable

https://www.thingiverse.com/thing:4249113

That’s cool Kimbers. My eldest is asking her 6th form DT friends to see if they can help.

Drac, piemonster,

Kenya may be 2 months behind us so can learn from events but we were 2 months behind China and failed to learn from events.

Plus it’s not that they are catching up, they are ahead of us already. Better tracking, better testing, easier access to face masks and sanitizer. Oh, and that other thing…. a strategy.

Meanwhile we are procrastinating and pontificating, making excuses as to why we, one of the most advanced countries in the world can’t sort out any of these basic things.

Its pretty nice to be involved, theres a local 3D printer collective who are doing loads of them

I think Rydster has fallen asleep with 1 finger on CTRL and another on V.

Does that mean you were serious about global end by July?

I don’t joke about serious stuff 😉 (well I do but the humour would be darker).

Yes I have some “final figures”, my two methods have not yet converged well for the UK – needs another week of data really. they have for Italy, Spain and US. So it is time to publish. My analysis models 50 countries data simulataneously to make predictions for each and every country in the dataset that have reached a common starting point. July looks good to call for the end, but it may drag along at low levels. Less than 19,000 UK deaths would be considered an upside based on today’s analysis. If I could work out how to post images I would add the projection – maybe I’ll post it on Twitter tomorrow.

Finishing the publication now. I hate adding references.

Anyway. Epidemic is predicted to be over by July. Globally. You heard it here second.

TiRed, you know much more about all this than me, but I cannot picture that at all. However, part of my problem with that is that I’m not quite sure what that means. Any chance you could explain a little, please.

This migjt be the most stupid thing you read on the Internet today but here goes..
Is there not a drug that lowers the body’s immune response to massive infection rates that drops the cyketone reaction or at leadt slows it to a point whereby it becomes manageable. Like in transplant patients where they use anti rejection drugs till the recipients body accepts the new kidney.

If its our own auto immune system flooding the lungs with snot making them not good ay being lungs then use a low dose of a drug, that might not even exist for all i know to let the virus have its own way for longer periods, but stop the body kicking into overdrive oncevit figures there is a new kid in town who doesnt belong

Disclaimer. I failed pretty much every exam i sat, i have a cse grade 4 in chemistry and thats sbout as sciencey as i get so dont pick on the thick ginger kid at the back. No one likes a bully.. Mkay

BBC reporting that Matt Hancock is ‘seeking refunds’ for the 3.5 million dud antibody tests he bought

Edit

Some forum weirdness

I’ll let you know how that works out as a theory.

It’s holds up fine for Chicken Pox. I researched it last summer when I was thinking of getting my Daughter vaccinated for it. (£130 in your local chemist.) Turns out the only reason we don’t give kids Chicken Pox Vaccine is that we want them to catch it to give their parents a booster in mid life to protect their parents from shingles in later life! Ergo resistance can be topped up with contact with an infected person.

maybe I’ll post it on Twitter tomorrow.

Can you let us know you Twitter ID so we can follow you?

And here

Kenya may be 2 months behind us so can learn from events but we were 2 months behind China and failed to learn from events.

The West is trying to learn from China, they’re not sharing their knowledge:

https://spectator.us/pompeo-china-more-transparent/

Aye, on here too, I have no love for Twitter.

If I could work out how to post images I would add the projection

Use postimage.org copy the direct link then on here click the image link paste and submit.

Mike Pompeo- can’t imagine he’d be the type to rub up the Chinese the wrong way.

TiRed…if this epidemic is over by July I will literally post a pic of me eating my hat…

That said..you clearly know far more about this than me, so you must clearly see trends in numbers that are beyond my understanding.

I just pray you are correct..I have never wanted to eat a piece of my own headwear so much in my life!

Is there not a drug that lowers the body’s immune response to massive infection rates that drops the cyketone reaction or at leadt slows it to a point whereby it becomes manageable

There’s any amount of drugs that lower the immune system but the individual immune response to a specific drug is not calculable due to each person having an immune system that is inherent to the individual in question.

I have a box of tecfidera (dimethyl fumerate) that I previously took for multiple sclerosis, it protects cells from damage by chemicals released by an immune system attack and reduces inflammation (quells the body’s own immune response) being very involved with my treatment I asked my consultant how it works in the reduction of efficiency of my immune system and he admitted they don’t fully understand how it works so I’d be very wary of trying it.

Probably the most infamous attempt to modulate the immune system caused a cytokine storm that nearly killed 6 trial volunteers & left them with horrenodous side effects

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10747-horror-clinical-trial-in-test-tube-recreation/

but theres hope that for the worst cases of Covid therapies can be found, steroids etc that will help

as long as they get mild symptoms
in the worst cases this virus seems to be triggering a cytokine storm- where your immune system goes into overdrive, causing massive inflamation in the lungs & potentially killing them.

Well, yeah (or rather maybe): immune systems are weird things, innit – and this virus does weird things to them

Genuine Q for any immunology fans:
Do we have evidence that re-exposure (or continued exposure) to “anything” that’s previously driven a full-on sepsis is likely to predispose to the same thing again in that indidvidual IF they’re antibody +ve ?
Seems to me that we “should” expect adequate levels of circulating antibody to be protective at least in the short term and I hadn’t imagined that there would be the same % risk of severe infection next time round – my understanding is that most sepsis is at least triggered in the presence of high infective loads, isn’t it, and the antibodies should mitigate that ?

… but those who’ve had severe sepsis often end up with deranged immune systems for months afterwards anyway – severe bacterial pneumonias lead to increased death rates well after “recovery”. I don’t even know if you’d see seroconversion in somebody whose system’s been through all that with COVID; would be interesting to test that. Suppose somebody in China probably has.

I know that death from sepsis has a heritable component and that some people do have recurrent sepsis but that feels like a different thing to me [true enough, sometimes with the same (bacterial) species but I’m gonna say those are at least sometimes due to failed bacteriological cure in the first place] in my mind allied to some genetic predisposition and poor immune recovery from the initial insult that allow high infective loads again followed by their genetic weirdness going wild again.

BBC reporting that Matt Hancock is ‘seeking refunds’ for the 3.5 million dud antibody tests he bought

Paypal gift ?

I cannot picture that at all. However, part of my problem with that is that I’m not quite sure what that means

Right. I have a model of transmission that describes the trajectory of the global epidemic. It is what we call parametric. That means it is a function of things we have to measure (like probability of death and delay from catching the virus to dying). Quite a smart function, not just y=mx+c (although that was ok early on for log(deaths)). This model makes assumptions that are valid at the global level, but make the strong assumption that we will carry on with social distancing. If we do, then the number of new cases and deaths will peak within 14 days and start to decline. The decline is also exponential.

IF the model is valid, (big if) then the forward projection shows that the epidemic in new cases will fall away by July. That doesn’t mean there will be. I new cases, and it doesn’t mean no social distancing. Because w know what happens when we all carry on regardless (deaths double every two days!). I have a near term different QC model to see a week in advance too. If the two align then I am happy to project further with the funky function.

I haven’t done any stochastic analyses for probability epidemic will be gone by some time. It’s too early for those sums. But the global courses under social distancing is encouraging.

[TL:DR] prediction is hard, particularly about the future. But based on the data we are about half way through the woods. Stay inside.

Is there not a drug that lowers the body’s immune response to massive infection rates that drops the cyketone reaction or at leadt slows it to a point whereby it becomes manageable

At least 3 in COVID trials currently (one of which is anakinra which I can only assume is somehow a star wars joke since it affects leucotrienes)

(I don’t think ARDS is quite the same as a “proper” cytokine storm, especially with COVID – odd things happen to blood tests that definitely show that things are turned up, but a LOT is local to the lung until/unless they get really really ill)