Sadly, but perhaps not surprisingly, I’ve just unfriended someone for posting stuff saying people who voted no in the indyref were responsible for the lack of ventilators.

Is it a general feature of crises that they bring the worst out of some people?

And the best out of others fortunately.

And that’s the problem, without testing us all how do we know.

Will see if I get what the missis has over the next week 😷🤒

Yup, this is no time for politics, or shite like that youve seen spin.

The key points on the BCG vaccine

THe Italians noted that immigrants don’t develop severe forms of Covid19 symptoms – immigrants are all vaccinated for tuberculosis on entering Shengen space.

Kids don’t develop severe symptoms – all recently vaccinated.

Tuberculosis is a bacteria not a virus so the protection can’t be BCG antibodies it has to be something to do with the immune rsponse to the vaccine.

The medic on Europe 1 talked about three types of immune response; the one you are born with, what you body learns through life developing antibodies to fight pathogens, and he talked about a third effect which is the side effect of vaccins – they boost the immune system in general.

A Dutch lab and Institut Pasteur are working on it.

CG.

Wrong timing. When this shitshow is over or even partly over, people will be so relieved that they will practically be falling over themselves to kiss his shoes.

The time is when this is still rumbling on in the background and we are looking down the barrel of a No Deal Brexit with all the loss of support and solidarity that will bring. The increased dependence on the US will look very dumb by then as Trump will have made a total bollocks of dealing with covid-19. China will be ahead in their recovery and solidarity with European nations will look more appealing.

For those unsure if they had it, read the Cambridge Independant article on page 153 that BillMC posted. A cambridge prof suggests there was a flu earlier this year with very similar symptoms but influenza b is on it’s way out now so such symptoms now more than likely to be Covid19.

Thanks slowpuncheur, I’ll look that up.

Wasnt worried before, worried again now 😷

So do we have a clearer idea of why deaths in Italy haven’t dropped off yet? Is the lag between catching it and carking it much longer than we think; is there a lot of transmission still happening on shopping trips; are Italians failing to follow the rules or is it something else?

@Tired, French deaths will include retirement homes from Monday according to news channels.

So the latest Imperial paper (in response to the Ferguson one)that said 5700 deaths, reckoned there’d be a (2nd) peak peak early April with 260 deaths, that’s not looking likely at all.

We had around 260 deaths yesterday

So do we have a clearer idea of why deaths in Italy haven’t dropped off yet? Is the lag between catching it and carking it much longer than we think; is there a lot of transmission still happening on shopping trips; are Italians failing to follow the rules or is it something else?

The countries that got on top of it, china & Korea (& it seems Germany)
China (eventually) were testing, tracking & quarantine very strictly
Korea (& Germany) had a huge test & trace effort .

I’m not sure Italy has managed to get close to that, & worryingly I don’t think the UK is close either
I’m still waiting to hear back about testing centre near me I volunteered for, as i understand it it’s still not ready, a week after they nabbed all the qpcr machine from my work

It’s the only game in town until there’s a test and/or a vaccine.

If herd immunity is the solution what’s the problem?

For those unsure if they had it, read the Cambridge Independant article on page 153

I’ve read it already, but to save anyone else looking for the link, this is the article referred to:

https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/cambridge-virologist-explains-what-we-know-and-dont-know-about-covid-19-9104220/

This seems like a well-reasoned discussion of the likely duration of our confinement.
“The Four Possible Timelines for Life Returning to Normal” by The Atlantic https://link.medium.com/Bes4tuGof5

Well-reasoned and the internet are not usual bedfellows. I try. I don’t do twitter and I seldom do facepalm.

As I have maintained, China was able to dramatically reduce transmission by contact. The EU is not as effective. The slope of the curve in Italy has a modest downward trend. But the curve in China and SK, also predicted by my model are dramatically different. I see no trends elsewhere.

I don’t like guessing, so prefer not to, but given the uncertainties in the models from Imperial (and everyone else), I am not confident that we will be out in three months. With these models, it is easy to be wrong, and wrong BIG! Always to be wrong by over-prediction.

Stay inside.

The Atlantic published an article about the US response. It’s equally grim and compelling reading

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

Kimbers, re-Germany,just an alternative thought to consider –
Their early action and capacity for testing has had many scratching heads over their death rate numbers with many reports jumping to conclusions based on simple testing/death ratio numbers.

Germany are currently following a very similar pattern to Italy (from 100 deaths – 450 deaths in 5 days), have the testing numbers muddied their timeline?? Are they actually a few days behind the UK.(with UK a few days behind France/Spain)
Do their testing numbers give us all a better picture of spread rather than showing any sort of control at this early stage?

Do their testing numbers give us all a better picture of spread rather than showing any sort of control at this early stage?

yeah, quite possibly

they have a decentralised health system too which may not help , even if they do have many more beds per capita than other countries

So I saw recently roughly 1000 deaths and 17 000 cases. If death rate is 1% that suggest 85 000 cases doesnt it and if its 0.1 death rate that suggests……850 000 doesnt it? I find the lower death rate numbers more scary tbh…

Is this cold war steves best work?

zoom in for the full picture

pic.twitter.com/NsvrXaTRsM

— Cold War Steve (@Coldwar_Steve) March 28, 2020

That piece from the Atlantic makes me feel sick

So the latest Imperial paper (in response to the Ferguson one)that said 5700 deaths

Author has now revised to 20-30k.

5700 figure needs to be dropped ASAP.

@grahamt1980 – I agree, it’s very disturbing even more so when you consider Trump changes his policy on a daily basis. If the US gets hit,even  half as hard as this article suggests, we’re in for a huge economic downturn.

If the US gets hit,even  half as hard as this article suggests, we’re in for a huge economic downturn.

It seems pretty obvious that the support currently in place for the hospitality sector is unsustainable. If pubs, restaurants, music venues, hotels etc can’t reopen soon (ie by the summer) then they’ll have to be written off. Millions will lose their jobs and the economic rebound will not happen. That’s when this will get very scary in economic terms. I think we’ll end up with a universal basic income in some form as the alternative is mass bankruptcies, homelessness and poverty on a scale that will make the virus look like childs play.

And in other news, following nationalisation of the railways, and an end to the tories NHS reforms (CCGs have been brought under central control), another much derided labour policy is on it’s way…

Broadband now being considered as a proper public utility that people need-to-have by the government, who’ve got providers to agree to lift all data caps, prioritise repairs to the vulnerable, and avoid cutting off people who can’t pay their bills. https://t.co/kO4Oj6Lcuj

— Jim Waterson (@jimwaterson) March 29, 2020

@grahamt1980 – I agree, it’s very disturbing even more so when you consider Trump changes his policy on a daily basis. If the US gets hit ,even half as hard as this article suggests, we’re in for a huge economic downturn.

This is the defining moment that I think historians will view as being the beginning of the end of America as a global hegemon and the end of the west as the dominant political sphere. We look like complete idiots to the developing world, who’s influence with and business we are vying with China for. Have you seen the journalists travelling into China to check out how professionally they are running things now? The journalists look totally bewildered as if they’re uncontacted tribes people who have seen an airliner for the first time, the cognitive dissonance is almost visible on their faces. Their airline stewardesses have better PPE than our own doctors on the front line of this.

It might have started in China, but China, Taiwan, Singapore etc are showing us all how this is done.

The fast east will rebound from this quickly, the west will have been fast tracked into a long term period of recession and then economic stagnation. This is like the cold war, the United States was able to outspend Russia into economic ruin, it’s just been reversed now and the war is against a virus.

^ Absolutely this.

Having just watched a news report from India and their idea of a lock down (10,000’s of people running home from the cities, in a mass stampede) it’s clear they are going to have numbers that make the US look like it’s by invitation only.

The fast east will rebound from this quickly, the west will have been fast tracked into a long term period of recession and then economic stagnation.

They may have the internal transmission at a stand still. Running along but still a self contained ‘safe’ island. I would have thought bringing back anything close to global trade would require a vaccine first. As soon as the borders open the risk of virus entry increases. All it has to do is come in create a hotspot and we’re back to all stop full stop.

From the no particular expertise arm chair pundit one time foot and mouth watch perspective – I can see local ‘normalisation’ but a global return? You could argue oh well we are going into summer – indeed but half the planet is heading for winter. There is going to be a virus reservoir somewhere and without being contained somehow it’s not going to sit there.
Putting the brakes on was the easy part – a structured reboot is much more difficult. I’m going for global restrictions to some extent until vaccine. Even then, it has to be administered to the entire planet. Who decides who’s front of the queue and how long does it take?

Whilst the dynamic between East and West existing and emerging economies is interesting. The defining ones may be between exploiters and the exploited?

They may have the internal transmission at a stand still.

Doesn’t matter. China can downplay their numbers and keep their population more oblivious to what’s going on. They will simply ban foreigners/westeners from travelling there – effectively contact trace those with real need to travel to China and then carry on selling shit loads of goods to the developing world regardless of whether we are in recession or not.

Where as the west will have a fit and throw an absolute **** tonne of money at the problem, because we have a free press and half a million dead grandparents isn’t going to go down very well in that environment.

On top of that, they have economic advantages – cheaper cost of goods, centralised government used to running a command economy with huge amounts of spending power making them able to stop SME’s going into recession, an already growing economy to act as a buffer to negative growth. etc etc etc

China is simply more agile.

@raybanwomble

I saw the Sky report on this today. Seriously, who wants to live like that? If that is our future, the cure is definitely worse than the disease.

Who decides who’s front of the queue and how long does it take?

There’s a tried and tested process for solving such questions. I fear that’s where we’re heading in the years ahead.

the cure is definitely worse than the disease.

I’m actually coming round to this. I think behind closed doors western governments always had this view. The current lockdowns are emergency actions to get the public on side. Once they’ve got on top of managing the PR of tens of thousands of premature deaths and public fatgue sets in herd immunity will be top of the agenda again.

^^^ Scary to see a future resembling the current situation in China, if that Sky report is anything to go by.

We’ve already signed away our freedoms, albeit temporarily, to combat a virus. Amazing how,
seemingly, easy it has been for us to discard our civil liberties over this.

Did someone mention `Trump?

After repeatedly warning people about social distancing he packed people in a vulnerable age group into a small space, signed a coronavirus bill then handed out commemorative pens pic.twitter.com/e3mdVQigb3

— James Felton (@JimMFelton) March 28, 2020

Not saying it’s a nice way to think but the Venn diagram of people likely to die in the foreseeable future (remember, UK has 600K deaths per year on average) and those likely to be killed by CV19 has a substantial overlap. Yes, there are some in the non-overlap section, who would have been expected to have long and productive lives but will not, and every life lost for any reason is a tragedy at an individual level.

There are also very real fears of how many will be massively affected by the economic impact of this situation. A quick google of reports (E3G, NEA, etc.) suggest 10’s of thousands of people die each year due to fuel poverty and the resulting health impact of unheated homes. Add in homelessness, hunger / impact of bad (cheap) diet, and the knock on could be easily similar or higher magnitude to the virus itself.

I don’t know the solution, and this is not a suggestion to let it run riot through the population – far from, I personally have people in that non-overlap section at risk and have elderly parents who are most definitely in the overlap. I do know I wouldn’t want to be in the decision seat (and I’m sure this isn’t what Boris thought being PM was going to be like)

The countries that got on top of it, china & Korea (& it seems Germany)
China (eventually) were testing, tracking & quarantine very strictly
Korea (& Germany) had a huge test & trace effort .

This is what I’m mulling on this morning – but the government is so smug about its 10,000 tests per day (including sending people away who have very clear symptoms of covid19) and nobody in the media is pressing them on the fact that it’ll take 20 years at this rate to test everyone.

Did someone mention `Trump?

Was he signing that with a felt tip pen?

Ladies and gentlemen, I bring you the most powerful man in the world.

We’re doomed. Doomed I tell ya!

20 flights arrived yesterday into London from NY.

▪️There was no social distancing on the plane
▪️No checks when they arrived.
▪️these passengers dispersed, many to the Tube.

Meanwhile police drones threaten sole walkers in the Peak District.

Utter nonsense.

— Bernie'sTweets (@berniespofforth) March 29, 2020

Meanwhile police drones threaten sole walkers in the Peak District.

One drone? It wasn’t exactly armed. How did it “threaten” anyone? The government has absolutely screwed up when it comes to basic measures for incoming flights… but what has that whataboutery got to do with the risk of spreading the virus to rural communities, full of old people, and miles from hospitals with ICUs?

I much prefer this post of hers:

I’ve noted the same in my supermarket today, as staff tried to disinfect every till after every customer and keep us 2 meters apart. No thanks and quite a few people irritated with them.

They are doing a great job, I hope everyone remembers them too when this is over. https://t.co/0ZEXwMKnS6

— Bernie'sTweets (@berniespofforth) March 28, 2020

Here’s a good resource:

https://covid-at-home.info/

… put together by some folks in Berlin and tweeted by Tricia Greenhough, so good enough for me.

Not saying it’s a nice way to think but the Venn diagram of people likely to die in the foreseeable future (remember, UK has 600K deaths per year on average) and those likely to be killed by CV19 has a substantial overlap.

As I understand it, the numbers of flu deaths that are mentioned are based on “excess” deaths, over and above what would be expected within the population normally. I guess it will be a couple of years before experts can look back and truly assess how devastating the epidemic has been on that basis. Presumably that will also account for additional deaths from otherwise preventable causes that could not be treated due to the strain on the health system created by the virus.