franksinatra – get well soon; thoughts with you.

Sounds positive Franksinatra. Shout if any of us can help the folks back home.

So a lot of measures to protect the most important part of the operation the Drs an Nurses and the other supporting cast.

This is an important point. And not a dig about the UK approach, many countries have done far too little to protect medical staff as they scaled up treatment facilities at speed.

Today’s lockdown activity in our street seems to be cleaning out the garage. Everyone’s at it.

Are there any details of exactly what the Nightingale hospital will have? Are they planning on 4000 beds, all with ventilator access?

molgrips – with the dust disturbance from cleaning garages everyone will be sneezing; cue panic in your street.

Uncannily far sighted of China, to have all of that kit, ready to go.

Are there any details of exactly what the Nightingale hospital will have?

A lady with a lamp hopefully.

Are there any details of exactly what the Nightingale hospital will have? Are they planning on 4000 beds, all with ventilator access?

@dantsw13 Not all that clear, suggestion is oxygen only as far as I’ve heard, also unclear where the staff are going to come from.

Uncannily far sighted of China, to have all of that kit, ready to go.

They didn’t have most of it ready to go… they built it.

@kelvin Maybe. There were apparently a number of SE Asian countries that had stockpiles of the necessary kit ready to go after SARS.

Must be nice living in a country with such a well funded health service and proactive leaders. Although I am amazed they have been able to make all these temp hospitals so quick.

There a Wired article on the Excel Nightingale here @dantsw13 https://www.wired.co.uk/article/nhs-nightingale-excel-centre-hospital-london

It mentions up to 10-13 others like it.

It also mentions onsite accommodation for staff and the MOD use of City Airport.

Someone on the Healthworkers thread said they had received a msg for volunteers for the Nightingale (A&E nurse)

My prediction a week ago was a cumulative number of deaths of 1000 would signify things are not getting worse. That appears to have come to pass, sadly. The news lists an imperial group making predictions based on other country data.

I have been using this method for two weeks now (and the results have always been shared with authorities) the prediction interval is very wide, but trends are well described.

I now have a much more sophisticated (Think AI/stats) method for interval predictions. For this time next week, I anticipate a range that is much higher and too grim to post. It is too early to call any flattening of the curve. But if the number of deaths this time next week is less than 3700, then there are grounds to be optimistic that intervention is having an effect.

@kelvin

They dropped a load of “pre-fabricated” units on a hastily prepared site.

Not suggesting anything untoward, but I can’t see how (or why) the UK would have that level of preparedness for such an event.

The game has now changed, of course.

I’m sure they were predicting 250,000 at one point with their curve control they’d hope ‘only’ 220,000 maybe I’m though.

Different methodology Drac. Mine is data driven so the uncertainty about parameters in the model is not so important when estimating prediction interval. I also have a novel methodology that allows relatively short-term forward projection without the error blowing up. It’s the interval that matters. My number is the lower 95%: I will be 19/20 times confident that things are getting better if we are below that number.

How’s your stats?

That Wired article is a good insight, thanks.

@Franksinatra – good to see your latest post, take it easy, hope you’re home soon.

How’s your stats?

I don’t have any. I was merely saying I thought they’d predicted 250,000 deaths.

I may be wrong or misunderstood that’s what they said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

I misunderstood.

@TiRed do u have a link to your model?

Fixed penalty issued

Renfrewshire & Inverclyde Police Division
2 hours ago
CORONAVIRUS ACT 2020 – PAISLEY

Three males have been issued with fixed penalty notices in Paisley today for leaving their home addresses without a reasonable excuse.

A building site has also been closed as carrying out non-essential work.

Please stay home if you don’t need to go out.

I’m interested in anything you post, TiRed. You’ve been too close for comfort so far in your predictions; even if the latest ones are “too grim to post” they’re probably more reliable than any other source we have access to.

Pure numbers in Italy don’t tell the whole story. I think the concentration of all the action in Lombardy is what overwhelmed it. Whilst London is ahead, our cases are definitely more spread across the system.

If you don’t think the numbers in Italy tell the whole story have a look at Spain or France for the story at slightly different speeds.

Paris hospitals have reached saturation and people are being trained/flown out to anywhere with a lower incidence including Germany and I think Luxembourg. There but for a few days goes the UK.

Link to the paper predicting various countries outcomes wrt China:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf+html

At the moment @kimbers I’d rather not publish them in public. The methodology is novel, and I update them daily for near-term (7-10 day) forward projection. But the numbers are terrible, and I think they destabiise. Should the epidemic look like it does not flatten, then I will do so, because at that point people will need some shock tactics. I started with the naive method in that paper two weeks ago just to get something out there. In the meatime I solved the much harder problem and I’ve been using my more accurate methodology for the past week. The forward 7-day prediction has an error (stdev log of 0.3). For an exponential problem, I’m very happy with that. I’m now solving longer-term projection, but the errors will blow up fast, so not too helpful.

7-day lower limits (below which we should be confident that intervention is happening)
UK 3700
US 16000
DE 1500
ES 19000
FR 4400
IT 21000
NL 1750

So if total deaths reported NEXT saturday are lower then these values, we have solid evidence that the curve is flattening. Finger’s crossed…

That paper DrJ linked to has some dramatically different numbers between the U.K. and France.

TiRed, are the current figures quoted in Worldometers accurate as far as you know?

If so you are predicting some alarming figures for the next 7 days.

Sobering numberz. Been keeping morale high by selling lot of cheap beer to happy customers but the space ivaders, and lack of common sense is astonishing

Told the boss today thst the risk is becoming too high so we will scale back and wind down to mothball nect week.

Still searching for familial mortality rates across Europe but cant find any. Just interested to know if tge shocking numbers coming out of Italy and Spain are either 1 person in a household or 4 to 5. Must be frightening for folk over there. Although i do think africa could see much higher numbers than Europe if they dont take a very harsh position now. Due to poverty, information, unsanitary conditions, overcrowding and a lack of healthcare, plus incredible levels of corruption and stupity.
Some tribal areas would probably be happy if a few thoudsnd of their neighbours died, and they would sit on a delivery of ventilaters until an envelope of cash finds its way in to their inside jacket pocket

I take my data from the ECDC daily. I believe the lnk above uses the same numbers with a pull from the website. Here is the link for all you data junkies:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide

The’ve updated the dataset and renamed variables since I started, so I have had to do a little data management. I use SAS 9.4 not that nasty R stuff 😉 . It is all automated to produce a global report in a matter of minutes. The prediction coding is a little tougher.

Stay indoors please.

I fear last weekend stupidity is going to start showing this week and roll on a few another week or 2. 🙁

In France for example they are only counting death at the hospitals.
People dying at home or retirement home are not counted as Cov19.

I hope you are proven wrong Drac, but expect that you will be shown to be correct.

We (as a country) messed up by not acting, decisively, sooner. To expect everyone to mentally switch from chatter about herd immunity, to keeping physically apart and not travelling, in just a matter of days, was foolish. Earlier instructions from the government should have been forthcoming… they had the behaviour experts, they should have expected a lag between a shift to a stay at home message and everyone properly acting on it.

In France for example they are only counting death at the hospitals.
People dying at home or retirement home are not counted as Cov19

What matters for prediction purposes is that they continue to do the same. On a log-scale a constant fraction of mis-reporting is an INTERCEPT (c) not the slope (m) of log(Deaths) = m TIME + c

That’s how I can model the data from all countries simultaneously.

Honestly if we don’t get to Tuesday and be reporting >1k deaths per day I think we will be doing well.

We’re likely to be at only half that come Tuesday Graham, aren’t we?

I keep hearing the peak to be 9 days from now? By which time we should have got 6000 deaths based on death rate doubling every couple of days.

On a separate note I just went ballistic at my 75 year old dad who doesn’t seem to be taking this seriously. My mum is worried, she decontaminates everything when it comes in the house, yet just found out the other day he swans in from taking the bins in and doesn’t bother to wash his hands. Whats the point of going into isolation then touching something that a guy who has touched 100 other bins before touches..sheer stupididy

@kelvin
Honestly I have no idea and I really hope so, it was just the attitude seen last weekend worried me.
it has been much better since but has the damage been done.
I guess it entirely depends on speed of disease progression. I am afraid I am being pessimistic at the moment, but we are in a far better state than the US and the potential impact on India and africa isn’t something I want to think about currently