Read that New Scientist piece. It’s very worrying and why we need huge roll out of tests. For the last few days I’ve not felt ‘quite right’. Slight chestiness, croak in my voice, dry scratchy eyes. But no cough or temperature. So not enough criteria to self isolate, but possibly infected.

Also, the Law Society advising that they envisage on/off lockdown for 2 years.

@reluctantjumper

Thank you, and apologies once again if I came over as a bit of an arse, that really wasn’t my intention. That’s not like me at all – quite clearly all of this is having an effect on me. Like you say, it’s unchartered water for all of us. Time for me to be more positive (well, I’ll try to be!).

Looks like Guys and St Thomas’s have helped develop a symptoms tracker app to help try and track the spread of the un-diagnosed cases

https://covid.joinzoe.com/

They’d like people to track even if they’re feeling well at the moment

Our GP surgery has shut. They have 4 out of five doctors off sick.
They have been great at sending out texts, ASKING us to help ourselves.
The local tip has shut – Goodness knows what the next door neighbour will do with his 4 bags of weekly rubbish (yes 4 bags). Really hope they don’t fly tip it.

Yes it’s getting harder and harder for hubby and I to get through to our parents that they must stay in (except for a quick walk alone and not near anyone else), or have friends, neighbours and family round. Their excuses are not going down well with me.

at the risk of being flippant, could anyone with more time than sense overlay a graph of posts per day on this thread onto the CV19 graphs. I sense we’ve peaked for absolute posts, but argumentative / condescending ones are still growing. There’s a lot of posts going un-noticed too, because they’re saying what’s already been said and no-one is paying any attention to them.

I’m worried though that this thread could ebb and flow for another 12-18 months, unless certain individuals start to observe a distancing policy – maybe only 1 post per 2 pages?

Here’s something coronavirus related, but instead of being an utter LOOK AT ME **** and starting YET ANOTHER new thread I’ll stick it in here 😉
Sky Sports users can pause their sub while there’s no live sport on. Just in case you didn’t know – just go to the MySky site and follow the covid blah link.

Their excuses are not going down well with me.

Hang in there Bunnyhop – I feel your pain. They do get it in the end.

In the experience of walking a mile in someone else’s shoes, I now vague inkling of what it’s like to have teenagers.

I live in a market town and the market is being set up today as I write, i’m seething tbh tainted with despair.

I’m not sure I understand how this is any different to a supermarket being stocked, staffed and opening.

If people are buying food from the market, that is food they would have otherwise bought from the supermarket.

People on here were asking about MOTs…

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps says drivers whose vehicles are due an MOT from 30th March 2020 will receive a six-month extension amid the coronavirus pandemic.

— LBC News (@LBCNews) March 25, 2020

chestercopperpot
Member
I am quite scared to be honest, I dont want to die.

Correct me if I’m wrong but about 96%

More llke 99 to 99.5%. they seem fairly confident the mortality rate is about 0.5 to 1%. Don’t use the official tested numbers to infer a mortality ate,

I work for a retirement home in France and from today all meals will be taken in the bedrooms.
It means those residents won’t see anyone apart apart from 1 or 2 staff for the next 4 to 5 weeks.

Thought for the day….

You know what would be interesting to see is gov estimations on how much the measures in place have actually had an effect so far, ie like daily updates, society functioning at 90% first, 70, 50, 30% for example after each measure or this measure should see us at X%, then state we need to get this down to X%… Let the general public know how much more needs to be done.

2nd thought for the day..

Forty-nine percent of the UK construction industry’s workforce is officially self-employed – sort of – latest tax office numbers reveal.
A Freedom of Information request made by the Unite union to HM Revenue & Customs revealed that 1.12 million construction workers were paid via the Construction Industry Scheme (CIS) in 2017/18. This is a 4% increase on the figures for 2016/17.

Do you think that’s maybe the reason sites are still open? They’ve not figured out the SE situation yet?

LOL why would they want to quantify it when vague waffle works so well.

stevextc
Member
Has anyone received a NHS letter ?
I’m on my GP’s vulnerable list for flu vaccinations due to an auto-immune condition and had half expected a letter or text ??

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus-extremely-vulnerable

just watched Nick Crane eating a fish supper on the tv show Coast. i am now massively craving a chippy tea!!

ed. just checked, our local chippy is still open! – not that bothered now 😀

Well this is a cheery read.

The last paragraph is especially alarming. Good job there’s a sensible, intelligent, restrained, compassionate and astute decision maker in command of the US army.

stevextc
Member
Has anyone received a NHS letter ?
I’m on my GP’s vulnerable list for flu vaccinations due to an auto-immune condition and had half expected a letter or text ??

I have as I’m apparently high risk. There are groups within that – High, medium, low. It depends on your meds/conditions.
This link contains guidance and gives you the general gist of it. Seen similar for other conditions: https://www.crohnsandcolitis.org.uk/news/advice-for-people-with-crohns-and-colitis-self-isolation-social-distancing

I think i’m in a lower group based on the guidance above but I wont be going out to any enclosed public places like shops etc anyway. I’m also mid 30’s and never really get any colds so must have some form of immune system so I’m not panicking. I think they’ve used it a bit bluntly, one size fits all etc so best to think about your situation.

Here’s my take on the Oxford “study” for anyone that will have read the news this morning:

If it was here earlier, then where was the epidemic of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) – a normally rare respiratory complication? I consider the analysis, (or most-likely the reporting of it) irresponisble in the extreme. In the exponential phase of an epidemic, the initial conditions play a huge role in the trajectory – on a log-scale this is the intercept, not the slope. A better analysis would be that we do not know, so more surveillance is needed to help us know.

To be honest, when all you have to analyse data is one tool that is a very simple model, it will be found wanting in the absence of data. These models are helpful in POLICY decisions, once things are known (e.g., influenza). They are also useful to show what we DO NOT know. Forget the 50% figure – what was the confidence limit on the headline prediction 5-95% of the population? or 47-52%? There is a HUGE difference.

The Imperial analysis paints a picture of what may happen. With sensitivity analysis about what we do not understand, it shows that spread is likely to overwhelm the health systems. That is clearly coming to pass in other like-countries. What makes us different?

@bunnyhop

Yes it’s getting harder and harder for hubby and I to get through to our parents that they must stay in… Their excuses are not going down well with me.

Having the same, my mother insists on going out to the shops, often by bus. She doesn’t need anything or seem to buy anything but she won’t stop and takes no notice of me. I have asked my brothers to get her grandchildren to nag her into stopping, hopefully this will bear fruit.

@TiReD

If half the country has already had it, why are the deaths and hospital still rising in the way that they are?

What makes us different?

Nothing, nada, squat, zip. Apart from a bumbling early response which will hurt us unnecessarily.

Weak request to “stay out pubs” made at a similar time in the progression to Italy’s Lombardy lockdown. I would aasume similar adherence, here, lots of idiots getting down t’pub before the lock on the Big Boris Friday Bash, there, lots of Italians ignored the problem, see the Mayor of Milan, “Milan doesn’t stop” 27/2.

Later, serious request, accompanied by legislation, at a similar time to Italy’s country wide lockdown.

Similar growth in deaths, and confirmed cases, tracking closely, UK around 2/3 of the deaths at any point in the curve so far. All may change. The Great British Bank Holiday Weekend, where big crowds of idiots went to the same places to do their social distancing together, will have a negative effect, question is, how much.

Could very likely make the same comparisons with Spain and France, although France got in quicker with lockdown and Spain got in late.

[TL:DR] “Judge me not by my point estimate, but by my prediction interval”.

Oh – there aren’t any in the “paper”. Is it 50% (5-97%) or 50% (47-55%)? There is a HUGE difference. Irresponsible.

Apparently an oxford uni study reckons up to 50% of the population may have already had/got it..

Can’t see that being the case however it would be great news if true!

How could you read what he wrote, and then post that?

You’re going to have to dumb it down @TiRed … try using just three words.

I did wonder that too

There’s Prince Charles tested positive for corona.

Prince Charles has it now..

Crikey..

He’ll have met a lot of people too.

try using just three words.

…antibody tests needed?

TiRED is bang on about that Oxford study. It takes massive assumptions and tries to make it fit instead of taking the data we have that is ever present from all the countries affected so far and working from that. I can’t believe these authors have even postulated the theory far or less decided to start testing people. I can only expect it is due to a rivalry with Imperial and their noses being out of joint that they weren’t the ones that changed the political direction?

@johnx2

About December 2019

Prince Charles is a super spreader given the amount of hands he shakes.

Luckily he’s got a nice second home in Scotland where the local press won’t complain that he’s taking up resources.

Also, I imagine he’s self isolating with twenty of his most useful servants.

ffs

If you are a child on Free School Meals in Bristol this is what you get for the week. The school pays the contractor £11 for this. Check out the butter. We have 185 of these to distribute. Shameful! pic.twitter.com/90eARG1fGw

— Peter Overton (@overton66) March 24, 2020

Well this is a cheery read.

The last paragraph is especially alarming. Good job there’s a sensible, intelligent, restrained, compassionate and astute decision maker in command of the US army.

It’s bloody awful journalism, that’s what it is. I could have written that in less than 50 words.

Bad things are happening. We don’t know how bad they are or how they will play out. There are other bad things not directly linked to other bad thing. Those might happen too. Double bad. But we just don’t know. Anyway, let’s ping that off to the editor and get paid.

The thing that strikes me about the Oxford study, is why if so many folks have already had it are we only now seeing lots of people seriously ill/dying

I’m no scientist, but even I can see the flaw with that theory..

Prince Charles tested positive for corona.

Travelled to his holiday home instead of staying in London, he chose to go Ballater dragging his household, Police and other support staff with him.

Absolutely incredible and displays a complete lack of common sense as well as a total disregard for the current situation.

But my mummy is queen so **** you all. Way to go Charlie……

They discussed it briefly on the PM programme on R4 last night and dismissed it because there were no corresponding deaths.

Prince Charles having Corona might be the closest he gets to having a crown!

Sorry, one thing I forgot to mention in my speech. You know all that stuff about staying at home and not travelling? Well it should go without saying, but obviously it doesn't apply to entitled people like Kirstie Allsopp.#CoronavirusLockdown

— Parody Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson_MP) March 25, 2020