I was in Milan last week for work. My company advised me this morning: We are also advising a 14-day self-quarantine period for travellers returning from Northern Italy. Plus they closed the office that is just outside of Milan, 2000 odd people working at home

Amanda is at a bike show not far from Florence. We’re all going to die.

2000 odd people working at home

Well, at least the internet capacity of the country will be tested if that expands!

Well, at least the internet capacity of the country will be tested if that expands!

Yeah by Netflix mostly #workingfromhome

Says something about PETA that that ad on the last page seems almost too plausible for them!

Could provoke an interesting ‘are viruses alive?’ debate if they did go for it. 🙂

Amanda is at a bike show not far from Florence. We’re all going to die.

What virus to make the trails go dead?

Interesting what this guy says at the end with regards to friends who have (supposedly?) contracted the virus.

It would certainly tie in with how myself and lots of colleagues felt at the end of Jan….

Is there a reason why the Corona virus dashboard (link on page 1) is now password protected? Shame as it was a useful gauge on the situation. Hope there’s nothing more covert going on…!

Seems to be back up, which is just as well, as the US Acting Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security needs a briefing.

The acting deputy secretary of homeland security is asking the internet where to get information about the spread of #Covid19.

We are so borked. pic.twitter.com/hWony9uGG4

— Greg Greene (@ggreeneva) February 24, 2020

Can someone give an idiots guide as to why is this strain being so robustly dealt with by governments (closing whole cities and towns/ shutting off hotels/ widespread self isolation) in comparison to recent vaguely similar events like Swine Flu?

Is it that the worst affected essentially develop untreatable viral pneumonia so survival is currently all down to the immune system? Ie more serious consequences than we have seen before affecting a larger number of people? Have we seen such wide scale and “robust” measures for dealing with various outbreaks in The recent past?

Urgh looks like it’s crossed over to inanimate objects now. My new frame has it, so it’ll be delayed getting here from where ever in the Far East it’s made, until it’s factory reopens.

It’s serious now.

Can someone give an idiots guide as to why is this strain being so robustly dealt with by governments (closing whole cities and towns/ shutting off hotels/ widespread self isolation) in comparison to recent vaguely similar events like Swine Flu?

it’s gammon pox

Can someone give an idiots guide as to why is this strain being so robustly dealt with by governments (closing whole cities and towns/ shutting off hotels/ widespread self isolation) in comparison to recent vaguely similar events like Swine Flu?

I’m also an idiot, but the ‘scary’ thing about this compared to Flu is a much higher fatality rate for people who contract it (I’ve seen it as high as 10x but also others that contest that) and a very long period when carriers are contagious, but show no symptoms, I’ve read 2 weeks??

So, if this idiot is right, then you could be walking around happy as Larry for up to 2 weeks potentially passing it onto anyone you come into contact with, and of those who get it, 10x as many of them will die as a result then if they caught Flu, which I guess it still a very low number, but over-all a lot of people Globally.

The WHO has said that it has potential to be the first “Disease X”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease_X

The most common symptoms of COVID-19 are fever, tiredness, and dry cough. Some patients may have aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny nose, sore throat or diarrhea. These symptoms are usually mild and begin gradually. Some people become infected but don’t develop any symptoms and don’t feel unwell.

Surely those are the basic symptoms for every cold and flu type thing? I don’t think I’ve ever had a proper cold where I couldn’t tick off the majority of those.

…as there’s no vaccine in immediate prospect, the only measures to slow/stop spread are the old ones of containment and quarantine. Stamp on it fast and it could disappear which is better for everyone (as China seems successfully to be doing). If it becomes a pandemic then it goes around the world, economy takes a hit globally, mainly vulnerable folks die. So worth spending a lot of energy to stamp.

If it does become a pandemic, it’ll romp around for a bit and vaguely fade into the seasonal background but we still don’t want that to happen. And the romping around will cause difficulties, as a colleague who has tickets for La Scala on Saturday is finding.

I am not sure it’s more deadly than normal flu (which still kills a significant percentage of people) – the numbers vary from 3% to 10% depending on to whom you are talking. But it’s apparently much more virulent so it could spread very quickly which would create a huge strain on resources since loads of people would be ill all at once and hence more would die.

1% of 7bn people is still 70 million people who might die.

Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Last updated: February 23, 22:35 GMT

Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE: Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%) for different age groups. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group.

AGE DEATH RATE*
80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities

I’d add to bear in mind chinese life expectancy is (still) 5 years lower than over here. So that’s what happens if everyone gets it.

On Molgrips point. Obviously if we all went to Corrnoa parties and swingers’ cruises etc this would happen fast and equate to a big hit. Even if it becomes a pandemic, sensible prevention measures slow this down, so less of a hit.

Oh yeah. Sauce: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

depending on to whom you are talking.

The numbers are as per my post. Facebook conspiracy groups etc may quote higher figures.

From Forbes 4 hrs ago “Coronavirus Update: Italy Mortality Rate Similar To China’s”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/25/coronavirus-update-italy-mortality-rate-similar-to-chinas/#429bff636c43

“What we know is that some 229 people have contracted the respiratory infection in Italy as of Monday night. Italy is now the European “epicenter” of Covid-19 with a reported seven deaths as of Monday evening. That’s the third highest death toll outside of China. Iran has reported 12 deaths. South Korea has reported 8 deaths out of 833 cases.

In Italy, roughly 3% of the confirmed number of cases ended in death as of Monday. But the number of new cases jumped early Tuesday to 270, so that has the mortality rate now at 2.6%.”

I am not sure it’s more deadly than normal flu (which still kills a significant percentage of people) – the numbers vary from 3% to 10% depending on to whom you are talking.

Case Fatality of seasonal flu is roughly 0.1%. Not sure if that’s in a vaccinated or unvaccinated population, but in the UK, vaccination of vulnerable groups makes a big difference in mortality. We have no vaccine for Covid 19 and even the most optimistic fatality estimates are of an order of magnitude bigger.

The other troublesome thing about this is the proportion of patients who don’t die, but become seriously ill, and require extended ventilation in ICU. It ‘seems’ to be much higher than seasonal flu.

The current measures are designed to delay the arrival of significant numbers of cases for as long as possible. This is partly to try to stop the burden on the NHS coinciding directly with normal winter pressures, and partly to try to punt it into spring/summer, which may make it slightly harder to spread. Obviously every month you delay the onset of a full pandemic, you are a month closer to the availability of a vaccine.

From what can gather from all the info, is its a bit worse than normal flu.

As in, its less lethal than SARS, but slightly more contagious.

I think it’s the contagion potential that’s the real issue.

The numbers are as per my post.

Yeah but

(number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus

That apparently excludes the people who are still currently ill – some of whom may yet die. Given the fast rise in cases this may yet increase those numbers somewhat.

It’s hit my town, someone from a local secondary school has it following a ski trip to Italy last week

Our local school had a trip to Italy in the half term too PHE said there’s no threat.

It’s hit my town, someone from a local secondary school has it following a ski trip to Italy last week

Cornwall, by any chance? If so, suspected rather than confirmed case.

That apparently excludes the people who are still currently ill – some of whom may yet die. Given the fast rise in cases this may yet increase those numbers somewhat.

Also excludes mild cases in the community which have not been recorded/diagnosed, the everyday sniffle nature of the symptoms in some cases will lead to people not coming forward for testing. The death rate always looks higher if you’re not counting half the cases. I don’t think we’ll have an accurate idea for a while.

Just north of London

A school in Middlesbrough has just closed following an Italian ski trip

Similar case in Truro at my niece’s school. And one of the pupils at my daughter’s school got booted off home for a fortnight after rocking up from her week off in Thailand. Whether we can trust people to self-isolate in these circumstances is dubious in the extreme.

There seems to be a level of futility in even shutting a city down for a couple of weeks, it only takes one carrier to start spreading again, unless the point is to slow it down to cope with numbers better. No more deadly than flu but more contagious means more deaths, also there’s a % of immunity to many flu strains in the population that isn’t there with corona, so again more deaths.

There seems to be a level of futility in even shutting a city down for a couple of weeks, it only takes one carrier to start spreading again, unless the point is to slow it down to cope with numbers better. No more deadly than flu but more contagious means more deaths, also there’s a % of immunity to many flu strains in the population that isn’t there with corona, so again more deaths.

It seems to have worked in china where cases have peaked and are now dropping, so it just depends what happens to the tail end of the curve.

I suppose the bigger worry might be what happens if like flu it mutates enough to making immunization difficult/impossible and you just end up with a virus with a 2% mortality rate working it’s way from one hemisphere to the other each year.

Also excludes mild cases in the community which have not been recorded/diagnosed, the everyday sniffle nature of the symptoms in some cases will lead to people not coming forward for testing. The death rate always looks higher if you’re not counting half the cases. I don’t think we’ll have an accurate idea for a while.

I was wondering that (I had a cold at the weekend).

If 100 people are confirmed to have it and 2.5% die then that’s pretty bad. If there’s 900 people who just had a runny nose then 0.25% doesn’t seem quite so alarming.

Are there any figures for Africa infections?  A large amount of Chinese currently work in Africa.

Are there any figures for Africa infections? A large amount of Chinese currently work in Africa.

Nope. I bet it is already there but nobody knows about it. Yes, plenty of Chinese work there.

Call me sceptical, are the numbers coming out of, let’s say, China, audited, confirmed and verified?

Or are they what the world wants to hear, rather than the the potentially real numbers?

Just had an email from my daughters’ school basically saying if you’ve been to N Italy over half term do not come to school for 2 weeks regardless of how you feel!

Call me sceptical, are the numbers coming out of, let’s say, China, audited, confirmed and verified?

WHO has been out there for weeks so as accurate as can be.

I am not sure it’s more deadly than normal flu (which still kills a significant percentage of people)

I keep hearing this and I keep having to repeat myself – seasonal flu kills around 0.12-0.15 percent of those infected, so even if the coronavirus has a mortality rate of 1 percent that is still significantly higher than “normal” flu.

seasonal flu kills around 0.12-0.15 percent of those …

… with a diagnosis – probably over half of seasonal flu “positives” are asymptomatic

Coronavirus IN Sheffield! Royal Hallamshire Hospital treating 2 COVID19 infected Patients, UK

…. er They are being treated in an isolation unit.

CDC and associated bodies have changed tone in America it seems. More countries in Europe now reporting cases too.

“It’s not so much a question of if this will happen in this country any more but a question of when this will happen,” she said, adding: “Disruption to everyday life might be severe.”

“We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad,”

They are pressing congress to release billions of dollars to prepare.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51637481

In the UK papers are saying the government plans to close schools and cut transport links (trains/ buses they mean I think) if needed.

Mock away but I’ve just about decided it’s time to stock up on some goods. I really hope I do look back at this post and think, “what a ruddy fool I was.” 👍

The key difference for the concern over normal flu is that it is novel.
Normal winter flu is controlled by a combination of people having flu jabs, people being resilient to it as it is a mutation of previous flus, a lower incubation time so lower amount of people wandering around not knowing they have it and it not being as contagious.

Some experts were predicting 60% of the population if left uncontrolled so that’s 1% x 60% x 7billion = 42 million dead. Combined with the general chaos and impact to majority of people.

Based on that it would seem a good idea to control it.

Coronavirus IN Sheffield! Royal Hallamshire Hospital treating 2 COVID19 infected Patients, UK

A centre for infectious diseases treats people with infectious diseases shocker.  You’ll never believe which other city is treating them too.

WHO has been out there for weeks so as accurate as can be.

Are the WHO working in the hospitals where it is rife or are they at a distance being fed figures by Chinese officials?  The CDC don’t seem too happy with how the Chinese are “working” with the WHO (wikipedia WHO)

What does “self isolation” even look like in the UK?

China seems to have begun to bring the virus under control using troops on the street and draconian restrictions on travel and gatherings.

There is absolutely no way of that being replicated in this country if Coronavirus does start spreading. We have neither a population that will tolerate it or the infrastructure to carry it out.