It’s that disconnect that is part of the reason for UKIP’s popularity among people who feel abandoned by the ruling elite.

hahaha. don’t kid yourself.

1)ukip are popular because they act as a political agony aunt for people who are annoyed about stuff. ‘ dear nigel, i really hate these potholes/cyclists/bulgarians blah,blah bigotty blah. ‘

2)we’ve been ruled by an aristocratic elite since the dawn of time and you really think that it’s only now that people feel a ‘disconnect’ ?

times are hard, extreme parties do well shocker!
look at history

A lot of UKIP voters are probably worried about the pensions they’ve been contributing to all their working lives.

well at least you’ll get a pension, my generation (i’m 40) will be lucky to see a bean, despite the thousands I’ve paid in.

I really worry about my kids future too, unaffordable housing, working conditions being eroded etc etc

……part of the reason for their popularity among people who feel abandoned by the ruling elite.

Why do people maintain this claim that UKIP support is primarily within a downtrodden proletariat which is determined to give the ruling elite a bloody nose ?

I’m sure that it’s the narrative which UKIP would like people to believe, but all the evidence I see is that a UKIP voter is more likely to be a Daily Telegraph reader than a Sun reader, in other words part of the ruling elite.

There is a reason why UKIP did very well** deep in the Tory heartlands at the expense of the Tory Party, think about it.

** very well means coming third in a very low turnout btw.

I stayed up to watch the 97 election results coming in. It was something new to me. The Tories got hammered. I’ve wondered ever since what the real causes were, and would any political party admit if they knew. I think some of it was a result of Aitken, Hamilton and others, and of Mrs T’s remoteness once settled into power. It sparked an interest.

And was it David Mellor who got a bit excited live on TV?

I wasn’t there, but there was a landslide election in 45 which kicked out Churchill. I’ll bet the army vote was significant. They knew they had been lied to, and they wanted to come home to decent jobs. With the army the largest of the forces, just about everyone knew a soldier.

Some of the economic arguments go right over my head. So what, even if I don’t understand them I still have a vote. And these days it’s mostly a protest vote. I’d like a ‘none of the above’ option.

And with the two and a bit parties converging on the centre ground, there are a lot of protest votes around.

The two and a bit parties are NOT converging on the centre ground – and this “protest vote” is going to see them all taking a step to the right.

very well means coming third in a very low turnout btw.

Second in terms of percentage of popular vote in Cambridgeshire. Third, just, behind the LibDems in terms of seats. Took seats from both Conservatives and LibDems.

I’m sure that it’s the narrative which UKIP would like people to believe, but all the evidence I see is that a UKIP voter is more likely to be a Daily Telegraph reader than a Sun reader, in other words part of the ruling elite.

Radio 4 had a bit on Today (yesterday) where they went to Boston, Lincs. The people voting UKIP didn’t sound like the ruling elite. They sounded like people deeply upset at a massive influx of eastern european workers prepared to worker harder for less money than them.

They also interviewed a farmer who saw no problems at all with this influx. He wasn’t voting UKIP.

There was a UKIP member on the tellybox this morning from Boston in Lincolnshire, who was complaining about the influx of Portuguese agricultural workers. He then went on to complain that these people were “swept aside” by incoming Polish agricultural workers. He said that we shouldn’t “get him wrong” because “some of these people are hard working”, but that he was now complaining about the horde of Romanians and Bulgarians who are apparently going to descend like a plague of locusts on us next year…

After complaining about foreign people, he then qualified his complaint by saying that the actual problem is that Boston is a small market town that “doesn’t have the infrastructure to cope”, and that was why he wanted immigration stopped.

He wasn’t asked “well, instead of banning immigrants, why don’t you get an infrastructure so that you can cope, then?”

Not racist at all. No no no.

If fewer landowners/farmers were paying these folk “under the radar” in order to save a bit of money they’d all be paying taxes and contributing to the welfare budget etc.

Second in terms of percentage of popular vote in Cambridgeshire. Third, just, behind the LibDems in terms of seats. Took seats from both Conservatives and LibDems.

this does not refute the point that Ernie made Cambridgeshire has been Tory [ or no overalll contril for a centruy or so – ie Tory heartland – so you are agreeing with him basically.

The people voting UKIP didn’t sound like the ruling elite. They sounded like people deeply upset at a massive influx of eastern european workers prepared to worker harder for less money than them.

We have a minimum wage so they dont work for less and they did not soung deeply upset when I heard it…closer to angry than upset IMHO- they did of course deny they were racist whilst asking for folk to go home.
This is also a Tory MP area and UKIP got its second highest vote at the last general election with only 9.5 % where they were 4 th as opposed to 3 rd in 2005
Ithas popular support there but still someway from a MP

Radio 4 had a bit on Today (yesterday) where they went to Boston, Lincs. The people voting UKIP didn’t sound like the ruling elite.

So some working-class Tory voters voted UKIP last Thursday, hardly a great surprise …….. is it ?

But it’s a long way from proving that UKIP appeals predominately to working-class voters. Why did they get less than half the votes that Labour got in South Shields last Thursday …. why didn’t they win ? Why did they have such an abysmal result in the nationwide metropolitan borough elections 12 months ago ?

Why is no there evidence that UKIP does well in predominately working-class areas, other than obviously taking votes from the Tories in those areas ?

As I said, there is no evidence that UKIP support is primarily within a downtrodden proletariat which is determined to give the ruling elite a bloody nose.

UKIP might well make significant inroads into working-class Labour heartlands in the future, and more importantly win seats, but last Thursday didn’t prove that, and to suggest that it did is clearly false imo.

I am sure Labour HQ are taking far more notice than you Ernie. To come second in a Labour fortress like S Shields suggests pretty clearly that there is working class support for UKIP. Nationally, the same support has traditionally spilt itself between Tories and Labour and this week’s vote (to the extent that it matters in the greater scheme of things) shows all three parties losing out.

NF himself used to describe his party as the party of “Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells” before seeking to widen the appeal. I think that this week has shown that he has had some success in doing so. Most political analysts point to two main groups who support UKIP:

1. Low skilled,working class, older males
2. Lower middle classes

Hence the Tories and the Labour party both got a bloody nose. UKIP’s appeal has spread and the most obvious new source of votes is the socially conservative (with a little c) working people. Last Thursday did show that which is why the parties reacted in the way that they did. This week has been all about the change in the marginal voting patterns (with the obvious caveat of turnount and local elections etc).

1. Low skilled,working class, older males
2. Lower middle classes

I don’t buy the Telegragh, but read it, and for the last week the letters page has been full of letters from Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells, explaining why they were voting UKIP.
I see the problem as (and it’s not very PC) the ignorance of many voters, who have an idea (immigration is a bad thing) and don’t listen to the facts and therefore go on believing that either Poles are here living on benefits or pinching all of ‘our’ jobs.

Radio 4 had a bit on Today (yesterday) where they went to Boston, Lincs. The people voting UKIP didn’t sound like the ruling elite. They sounded like people deeply upset at a massive influx of eastern european workers prepared to worker harder for less money than them.

Yeah and what UKIP will do is kick them out and then get rid of the minimum wage forcing the British working class to work for even less money than the eastern europeans.

I like a hard working immigrant. The more polish builders and plumbers the better. But… if I was a plumber or a builder I suspect I’d look at it differently. To call them ignorant seems pretty, well, ignorant.

teamhurtmore – Member

Hence the Tories and the Labour party both got a bloody nose.

You’re living in a complete fantasy world mate.

The fact is that last thursday the LibDems saw their share of the vote in the county council elections fall by half, the Tory share of the vote fell by a quarter, and Labour’s share of the vote increased.

What do you want to do, rewrite the election results, ffs ?

.

To come second in a Labour fortress like S Shields suggests pretty clearly that there is working class support for UKIP.

Yes they came second …….. you do understand that coming second means “not winning”, don’t you ?

Previously the Conservative Party came second in South Shields, what does that prove – that the Tories have huge support in working-class areas ?

Last thursday the Labour Party got a greater share of the votes than any other party in rural England – the Conservative heartland, and you want to claim that they got “a bloody nose”.

You ought to be a spin doctor for the Tories mate.

I was using the ignorance in it’s actual meaning, ie, lacking knowledge, which I think describes the people doing vox pox pieces on the TV.

I know this is only a small percentage but I think it’s the typical reaction of many.

It still sounds like you’re ignorant to the fact that greater competition in a market will not be seen as good by those who compete in that market.

Surely the point is that many uk workers don’t compete in the market, which is why so many uk farmers employ workers from abroad.

Sure. I live in deepest Wales. The local village is mostly polish as there’s a big abattoir, and they work there. I don’t think any of the locals mind…

That doesn’t mean that many jobs aren’t being competed for. Same with services. Us affluent types are immune to it, but at the opposite end of the spectrum immigrants are a competitive force in all kinds of ways. And good for them… if they can move across continents to find work they’ve obviously got a competitive edge. I’m glad they’re not after my job.

What ernie said to THM ,the best spin is that those working class who voted tory now vote UKIP. I dont see Labour voters leaving the labour party in droves to vote for the party of xenophobes even further to the right than the Tories. I am sure some will but not many. Tories should be most worried and are – did you you hears dave change if language this week as he sucked up ?. i also dont believe many will do this in avote that really matter like a general election and only the right wing will do this.

So, does anyone know what UKIP councillors will want to do with their new found (balance of) power?

Well we can be sure UKIP dont know so How on earth could we know what they will do- they did not even vet all the candidates

It is hard to see what use an anti imigration anti EU party with no qctual policies will achieve in local govt tbh.

Perhaps an end to support for cycling schemes? Given that cycling is stealing ?

So, does anyone UKIP know what UKIP councillors will want to do with their new found (balance of) power?

is the real question

a) I’m annoyed at myself that I’m posting on a political thread again, but…

b) I’ve just seen BBC news summary and the guy was smoking a fag in a VT clip, something he obviously wanted to show.

Tit.

Well I look forward to enjoying fantasy land with the the likes of Ed Milliband, Harriet Harman etc. In this land of make believe and spin we can discuss exactly why the marginal vote is important (and evidenced by the Labour spin machine joining the Tory one now to discredit UKIP.) The analysis of UKIP support is clear and even in fantasy land the point remains. At low levels of overall share, UKIP takes votes predominately from the Tories plus a block vote from Lib Dems (presumably the trad protest vote). But the voting analysis shows that as the overall vote rises, the gains from labour voters increase. As I assume we all agree, this starts low, but then accelerates apparently at the key trigger point of 15%. For that reason, my point at the top of the page stands – labour HQ are taking more notice of this week’s results than others suggest, even if that means them joining me in “fantasy land”!!!

But when all is said and done, this will all be largely an irrelevance. The next election will be a 2 party shoot out with Labour the most likely winners. But to get there, the main parties will have to address the rise of populist parties. This is the story across Europe with populist parties coming from either end of the policitical spectrum, united only in a common bogeyman.

You mean someone actually smoked a fag in public, in front of the cameras as well! What is the world coming to.

You mean someone actually smoked a fag in public, in front of the cameras as well! What is the world coming to.

You’re right, I should be proud as a smoker myself 🙄

EDIT: Bugger, 3rd post on a political thread!

maybe they’ll listen what people really want locally rather than the local dictatorships that go on in some councils (yes it’s a dream). You can waste your vote round here Councillors have been from the same party for years. Fascism comes in many forms from left and right. I’m enjoying the UKIP surge, it’s made the boring politicians on both sides of the retarded left and right debate sit up and look around.

Don’t worry those of you who are left or right and helping stultifying the politics of the UK. Farage and his happy band will hang themselves and it will be back the boring, stupid idiots who lead each party that is our normal system. No wonder people are bored with Westminster politics.

the beer that goes with the above view is Bainbridge Blonde from the Dales. Rather nice, another? Don’t mind if I do.

I see the problem as (and it’s not very PC) the ignorance of many voters, who have an idea (immigration is a bad thing) and don’t listen to the facts and therefore go on believing that either Poles are here living on benefits or pinching all of ‘our’ jobs.

Well to be fair, I might have thought there were a load of Poles here living on benefits if I’d just paid attention to the popular media. I suspect it’s actually discussions on STW where I’ve got the real facts about the situation. It’s kind of hard to blame most voters for not knowing the true facts given the propaganda they’re fed

I’m annoyed at myself that I’m posting on a political thread again

Well it’s not quite the usual political thread – JY, ernie THM and I are broadly in agreement (hence why I’m posting – I’d stopped posting on the sort of political threads where I might get into an argument).

Think these threads tend to be politer tbh with less goading and it is interesting when folk find common ground.

Re UKIP I think labour will loose some voters to them but given the change in tone from CMD * and the announcement today that the referendiim will be out before the elction it is not Labour that need to be scared in general.
It is obvious that UKIP is a right wing party and to the right of the Tories so they will bnever have broad appeal with Labour folk beyond a protest which they wont do whenit really counts

* which has been nothing short of a Clegg like capitualtion

PS

This is the story across Europe with populist parties coming from either end of the policitical spectrum, united only in a common bogeyman.

Interesting no one is blaming capitalism in the UK and are blaming the EU and immigrants and voting for a party that is more of the same capitalism that caused it all – in fact it is even more of the same than nay other party.
Not really apolitical point more one about the human condition like we have a hair trigger in blaming folk for problems rather than looking at the true causes – ignoringmy hair trigger for hating capitlalsism no one can actually think the EU or immigration has caused the current crises or economic slump

teamhurtmore – Member

labour HQ are taking more notice of this week’s results than others suggest

Yes I’m sure that the Labour Party is absolutely devastated that the Labour vote held up in a crucial by-election last thursday, and that they got more than twice as many votes as UKIP ……. what a “bloody nose”, as you like to call it.

And the Tories must be relieved that their vote merely collapsed.

Whilst the LibDems, who according to you don’t even appear to have received a bloody nose, must be over the moon that their vote was pretty much obliterated, and that they came 7th – with less than half the votes of the BNP.

All in teamhurtmore’s political fantasy world.

the announcement today that the referendiim will be out before the elction

Er, you mean one cabinet member has suggested they should publish a draft bill before the election (but has admitted it would be impossible to get it passed due to Lib Dem opposition)? I was wondering for a minute if I’d missed a momentous policy announcement on a BH weekend.

ah sorry heard it briefly on radio 4 whilst kids were being noisy….did not hear all the details clearly
I stand corrected 😳

I was right about CMD brown nosing though 😉

Well I don’t watch much TV news, but I long-ago realised the following. People interviewed on the street, particularly in the evening local news, tend to be a mixture of old folk, unemployed and a pork pie short of a picnic.

I can say that because I tick all the boxes. I suggest you don’t presume too much.

scotroutes – Member

The two and a bit parties are NOT converging on the centre ground – and this “protest vote” is going to see them all taking a step to the right.

Aye- some fanny was on the news last night saying that the UKIP rise is as a result of the tories lurching to the left. I punched the TV so hard he got a black eye.

just repeated it on Radio 4 apparently it was the Tory chair Grant Shapps saying they would publish it all before the election so they are certainly making sure they pander to the right/UKIP voters
I assume they will argue only the Tories can deliver the refereduum on EU and voting UKIP is wasted vote.
The vote will be after the election – I never claimed before but I can see [ re reading] that it looks like I did

The sound of Harriet Harmann in celebration mode:

Deputy Labour leader Harriet Harman told the programme Ukip’s rise was a “wake-up call” for the establishment parties, but some of its politics were “quite threatening”. She said: “We should listen very seriously if people are feeling disaffected and disenchanted. It is a challenge to us. It’s a wake-up call for us to actually listen to people who feel that times are hard and wonder whether any of us have actually got the answers.” But she added: “I don’t take the easy assumption ‘Oh well, it’s great because it’s going to take votes off the Conservatives’. I think some of their politics is quite threatening and we shouldn’t be complacent either.”

Seems like she will be a barrel of laughs when she joins me in fantasy politics land!

I am not reading that the same way as you
I read it as we need to react to stop the rise of the “quite threatening” “fasicsm light” of UKIP rather than labour itself is under threat and loosing votes to them like the Tories clearly are.

It can be read either way but can you find anything to show that Lab are loosing masses of votes to them or a lab politicina saying this?
Not conclusive IMHO