Viewing 40 posts - 1 through 40 (of 41 total)
  • Vanguard lifestrategy – what are you doing?
  • Mowgli
    Free Member

    My S&S ISA has just today reached the point where it is now worth exactly the same value as the sum of what I’ve put in over the last three years. I suspect tomorrow it’ll be worth less than what I’ve put in. At best it was about 25% up. I know no-one knows what’s going to happen tomorrow, next week, or in 6 months time, but I’m wondering about hoiking everything out and putting it somewhere where it won’t lose any more value. I know that if I do that, tomorrow will be the day the fund starts increasing in value again.

    Anyone else having similar thoughts? Or do you just ignore it and check back in 6 months time?

    alpin
    Free Member

    Not Vanguard, but other funds.

    Six months for me.

    Checked in the other day and I’m down ~28% since January. Still way more than I’ve put in, but then I started years ago and haven’t done much investing since.

    slowoldman
    Full Member

    Where are you going to put it to maintain its value? My pension pot is down from a high around last November. I’m not surprised, it’s to be expected. I shall be leaving it as is (relatively low risk so low growth/loss). It will recover in time.

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    ElShalimo
    Full Member

    I view S&S ISAs as long term investments. I’ve got a Vanguard S&S and since I opened it we’ve had Covid, Ukraine etc.  You’ve just got to look at the longer term view and not expect quick wins. Like you mine was doing very nicely until the world stopped in March 2020. It did recover after Covid but the Ukraine crisis has affected most of the global markets. I’m going to check it once a month and try to not get stressed and hope the recovery starts soon

    Kryton57
    Full Member

    Leave it and wait. You get 1-2% at best elsewhere and it won’t be tax free.

    5lab
    Full Member

    it’d be tax free if he keeps it in an isa (albeit a cash one).

    I’d leave it though. You can’t time the market. It might fall further, it might not. you don’t know, we don’t know. if you’re unhappy with the risk overall you could put it in funds which are less risky, but your appetite to risk shouldn’t change based on just 6 months results

    IHN
    Full Member

    I view S&S ISAs as long term investments.

    That’s exactly what they are

    You can’t time the market.

    An old adage is “it’s not about timing the market, it’s about time in the market”.

    scruff9252
    Full Member

    We don’t know what will happen this year bar it will most likely continue to drop in some value over the next couple of months. Or today could be the bottom, who knows. \o/

    What we can say with near certainty is that in 10 years it will most probably be worth in excess of where it is today.

    My plan is to keep putting cash in each pay check and “Pound cost average” the way through.

    I will however be avoiding any large purchases in the near future where as in the past I may have funded from withdrawing from my ISA

    frankconway
    Full Member

    Invest and forget; otherwise – don’t bother.

    footflaps
    Full Member

    Markets are down at the moment, so being under water (or close to) is to be expected. It will come back up at some point.

    My ISA (which was rather tech heavy) has lost 50% of it’s value since last Nov. Sort of ending my early retirement plans for the foreseeable future!

    Flaperon
    Full Member

    I’ve deleted the password from Apple Keychain and will worry about it in two years.

    bedmaker
    Full Member

    I made the mistake of checking my SIPP a few days ago.
    As Flaperon above, I’m going to try to ignore it for a couple of years…

    Saying that, my year end is end of May so I have recently chucked a load of cash into the SIPP and would really like to know what to buy into other than canned goods and small arms.
    Shorting isn’t allowed in a SIPP sadly.

    martinhutch
    Full Member

    So, is it now time to buy in, or is there plenty more dip to come?

    IHN
    Full Member

    So, is it now time to buy in, or is there plenty more dip to come?

    See above about timing the market. And whilst I’m trotting out old adages – the best time to invest is ten years ago, the second best time is now.

    TheGingerOne
    Full Member

    The market was also overvalued as for the past 2 years people have had nothing to do with their money and with interest rates so low, many have put into stocks. The gains I have seen in the last year until it started dropping were not realistic compared to the long term, so they were never going to continue realistically. Yes it looks bad short term, but as everyone should know, this is a long term investment strategy and over time it should always be fine unless something really bad happens or your timing to exit is particularly unlucky.

    …And be grateful that you didn’t put your money in unregulated imaginary coins

    frankconway
    Full Member

    Interesting article in FT recently about whether fear of holding on (FOHO) was displacing FOMO in investment decisions.
    Conclusion – cannot call it.

    alcolepone
    Free Member

    I joined the party late, and had gains of 2% at one point. Removed the money while omicron hit, and was up. Sat for a while and put the money back in, in march. Saw the writing on the wall and so went to remove it again, but Vanguard has about a 2 day turn around and so ending up about 2% down overall. Not looked since,but i cant see the highs of the end of last year come back anytime soon.

    I don’t think the bottom is there yet. The fuel prices haven’t hit a lot of people who are on longer term contracts, also any fixed term mortgages will not have felt the interest rate rise. I think it will be another couple of years before the new normal settles, and unfortunately at that point global warming will be a strong influence over any potential growth.

    This isn’t the crash of the 1920’s, but that took over 30 years and a world war to get back to the same levels. I dont think stocks are going to grow for a long time….

    scruff9252
    Full Member

    …And be grateful that you didn’t put your money in unregulated imaginary coins

    At the risk of linking two threads together – one of the instagram grifters I’ve been fed “by the algorithm” the last year or so selling the crypto wealth spree lifestyle, pumping the Ponzi scheme.

    I saw an article yesterday that he would appear now to be totally broke after putting all their “investments” into imaginary coins.

    So there is some up-side to all this!

    footflaps
    Full Member

    So there is some up-side to all this!

    Every cloud etc 🙂

    Greybeard
    Free Member

    My ISA (which was rather tech heavy) has lost 50% of it’s value since last Nov.

    Mine has lost 17% since then, which was its high point. The only investment in it that’s improved in the last months is a fund invested in China, which I’d been wondering whether to dump. I’m disappointed that I put this year’s ISA allowance into the pot as the beginning of the FY, and have lost 20% of it, but it’s history now, it’s the same as any other investment.

    The moral is, as above, you can’t time the market. Market prices are a reflection of every investor’s view of the future, so unless you have a reason why you think you can do better, stay in. Then again, if you’re invested in a particular sector or company and you think the world view of that investment is skewed by emotion or wishful thinking, either up or down, that’s a reason to rebalance.

    irc
    Full Member

    Just to clarify a comment above , first £1000 of savings interest is tax free even if not in an ISA for basic rate taxpayers. £500 for higher rate. So putting a few 10s of thousands into cash won’t be taxable.

    https://www.gov.uk/apply-tax-free-interest-on-savings

    But unless you need cash I would leave it in and forget about it.

    Superficial
    Free Member

    An old adage is “it’s not about timing the market, it’s about time in the market”.

    I’ve heard that plenty of times, but I never really understood it. Don’t get me wrong, I understand that on a long enough time frame you’re probably better off putting money in stocks and forgetting about it/ not messing.

    But if stocks are clearly going down, and I think they are, then getting the money out and putting it in bonds/banks for a few months before reinvesting might well be beneficial. Even if you don’t time the dip perfectly (which is obviously almost impossible), any downslope you ‘miss’ is money in your pocket.

    I reckon your adage is perpetuated by day traders and financial institutions that have an interest in retail investors (and pensions) bag-holding any dips.

    Change my mind.

    COI: I have a few 000’s in stocks which I’m trying not to look at. I know I’d have been better off putting the money in banks.

    db
    Full Member

    Just checked and my pension down a lot and ISA a little bit. Not touching either for 10 years so hopefully plenty time to recover.

    It has made me think perhaps long term a in retirement a little annuity might make sense to ride out dips in the market (rather than 100% drawdown) but have a got a few years to think about that!

    In the short term will continue to throw in what money I can.

    5lab
    Full Member

    But if stocks are clearly going down, and I think they are

    they aren’t. Look at the ftse 100, take an average of say, 2 weeks data (just to avoid noise) and its basically flat over the last 6 months. ftse 250 is down since the start of the year, but flat since the war started.

    experts continually fail to time the market right, as an amature you have no chance. Think about history – Would you have bet that mid-march 2020, as the pandemic was in full swing that a big bull market was approaching and stocks would rise 20% in the next 3 months? or would you have sold up (given they had just lost 20% of their value) and moved your money into a nice “safe” investment and immediately lost the return in value of your stocks?

    sharkey
    Free Member

    I reckon your adage is perpetuated by day traders and financial institutions that have an interest in retail investors (and pensions) bag-holding any dips.

    Change my mind.

    Because all the data says you wont time the market well, human psychology pushes most people into getting in/out too early
    Because “not timing perfectly” has a much bigger impact than you would think, the impact of missing the 10 best DAYS is massive

    Fully invested (S&P 500 index) $29,845 5.62%
    Missed 10 best days $14,895 2.01%
    Missed 20 best days $9,359 -.33%

    From here Motley fool

    butcher
    Full Member

    Anyone else having similar thoughts? Or do you just ignore it and check back in 6 months time?

    Depends if you need the money or not. If not, and you’re in for the long term, then ignore it and carry on with your life.

    Even if you took it out, put it in savings, invested in bonds or whatever, you’d lose through inflation anyway.

    Del
    Full Member

    ^ having realised your losses

    wait4me
    Full Member

    In similar boat. Looks bad right now as I lumped a fair bit in last year at the wrong time. This year I’m splitting my allocation equally over 12 months to try to mitigate the risks. Agree that the ease of checking every day on the Vanguard website is making for uncomfortable reading.

    thegeneralist
    Free Member

    Some weird shit in this thread….

    Why on earth would you take the money out after it has tanked?

    Me, I’m trying to scrape together my pennies from disparate places to buy as much as I safely can whilst the prices are very low.

    Also maxing out workplace AVCs as well as there no better time to buy.

    Appreciate that it could go down further, but if I was a good idea to invest last year and the year before then it sure as **** must be a good idea to invest now ( maybe not as good as next month, but I’m here not there)

    Would you have bet that mid-march 2020, as the pandemic was in full swing that a big bull market was approaching and stocks would rise 20% in the next 3 months

    Well yes, obviously I would. I chucked 20 grand in just before the end of March 2020, and another 20 grand in the week after and had a ball.

    Currently about 11% up since that point. Despite some ( many 🙂 ) atrocious deals 🤣
    6 out of my 23 holdings are down by >50% 🙄

    Greybeard
    Free Member

    But if stocks are clearly going down, and I think they are, then getting the money out and putting it in bonds/banks for a few months before reinvesting might well be beneficial.

    This is the key point about time in the market. Stocks go down to what people think they are worth, on that day. If investors in general think they will go down further, some will sell, and the more who are selling the more the price drops. And vice versa if prices are rising. So the price today includes the average perception of future trends. Whatever the history, prices are as likely to rise tomorrow as they are to fall.

    Obviously, if you sell out of what you think is a falling market, and you’re wrong, you’ve lost out on the rise. But that’s not the point about time in the market, which is that all the time your assets are in cash, you’re losing out on the average gain.

    Superficial
    Free Member

    Also maxing out workplace AVCs as well as there no better time to buy.

    Oh yeah. Buy the dip!

    the price today includes the average perception of future trends.

    This is perhaps the best argument. The volatility/sentiment etc is ‘priced in’.

    But one of you two is necessarily wrong ^^^

    all the time your assets are in cash, you’re losing out on the average gain.

    But you’re also ‘losing out’ on the average loss. And whilst I see that over the history of stock exchanges, markets have trended up, there’s no guarantee of that in future. In fact, the opposite is necessarily true. There will come a time where every institution that currently exists is gone (and their shares worthless). “In the long run, we are all dead.” (John Maynard-Keynes)*.

    Besides, I thought all these future potential gains were ‘priced in’? So why do the stocks keep going up?

    I’m not trying to be antagonistic by the way. I genuinely don’t understand.

    * Of you prefer not to quote economists: “On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.” Narrator, Fight Club.

    Greybeard
    Free Member

    “In the long run, we are all dead.”

    When that happens, the value of our investments doesn’t matter to us.

    I thought all these future potential gains were ‘priced in’?

    They are priced in to the extent that reflects current knowledge. An unanticipated event will not be priced in.

    So why do the stocks keep going up?

    Stocks go up for two reasons. One reason is that people think they’ll go up further; this also applies to art, watches, cryptocurrency, etc. There doesn’t need to be any actual value in the stock for this to happen, only a belief that it will continue to rise. This is what leads to bubbles. Second reason is that the expected income from dividends exceeds whatever fraction of the price is thought to be reasonable at the time. If the stock is £100 and the dividend is expected to be £15, that’s a good return if the rest of the market is anticipating 10%, so the price of the stock will rise to more like £150.

    Superficial
    Free Member

    “In the long run, we are all dead.”
    When that happens, the value of our investments doesn’t matter to us.

    Well yes. But Keynes was talking about institutions/companies. The big companies of 100 years ago are unheard of these days and I’m sure the Apples, Teslas and Facebooks will be worthless in 100 years. Even 50 years is a long time. I tried (briefly) to Google it – only 28 of the original FTSE 100 from 1984 remain in the list. And of the top 6 largest corporations now (worldwide), only Berkshire Hathaway existed before then.

    footflaps
    Full Member

    I tried (briefly) to Google it – only 28 of the original FTSE 100 from 1984 remain in the list.

    Hence just buy a tracker and don’t worry about it. As the giants of today fade, their value falls, they become a smaller and smaller part of your tracker which is buying up the giants of tomorrow on their way up.

    IHN
    Full Member

    Hence just buy a tracker and don’t worry about it. As the giants of today fade, their value falls, they become a smaller and smaller part of your tracker which is buying up the giants of tomorrow on their way up.

    This. To (probably mis)quote Jack Bogle, who started Vanguard “picking stocks is like looking for a needle in a haystack. It’s much easier to just buy a share in the haystack”

    EhWhoMe
    Full Member

    I have two isas one fundsmith one hargreaves but feel im over invested in fundsmith, also have smithson which has tanked big, its now approaching the level after the covid drop which has shocked me a tad

    And a sipp with vanguard which was openened in nov with transfers from other pensions

    Proper novice at this so how do i go about buying a tracker

    Also is it mad to put a small inheritanance into a sipp as i was given it tax free but will pay tax upon drawing out of the sipp,

    Ta

    nickjb
    Free Member

    I’m quite heavily into fundsmith too. It’s down at the moment but done me pretty well over the years so can’t complain too much. It’s pretty diversified so it’s not quite the same as having a load of a single stock.

    As for trackers, you just buy them, ideally within a sipp or isa. Vanguard sell them, as do many others. The fees should be low so just check they are.

    On the inheritance it was tax free but it’s not in a tax free wrapper now so it’s just cash. Put it wherever. Pension is a reasonable place if you don’t need it soon. You’ll get the tax bonus on it when it goes in then get taxed when you take it out.

    jamesco
    Full Member

    I have a friend who is very savvy and very much a gambler , however , he always says that jumping ship at times like this always costs 7% one way or another, he gambles in the good times on bull markets but never on a bear market unless he has good info.

    Greybeard
    Free Member

    only 28 of the original FTSE 100 from 1984 remain in the list

    Many of them will have merged or been taken over. Their shareholders won’t have lost out.

    to put a small inheritanance into a sipp

    Fine, but note that you can’t put more into any pension than you earn the same year, and your total pension contributions shouldn’t exceed £40k per year (but you can carry forward unused allowance from the previous 2 years).

    acidchunks
    Full Member

    Also is it mad to put a small inheritanance into a sipp as i was given it tax free but will pay tax upon drawing out of the sipp,

    Unless you’ll get tax relief putting it in a SIPP (technically doesn’t matter where it came from as long as you’ve paid income tax and you have sufficient tax fee allowance available from this year or with carry over from previous)

    Otherwise, chuck it in an ISA, you won’t have any tax to pay at withdrawal and you’re not locked out of taking the cash until retirement

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