Looks more like the sort of damage you get from a fragmentation warhead on an anti-aircraft missile to me. Compare with the photos from MH17. Engines failures are normally either contained or in several big bits.

@jimdubleyu Maybe; (I’m no expert either) but lots of little holes, plus the timing of the event makes it seem like the balance of probability lies firmly in the favour of a missile strike. Who and why, we’ll probably never find out, but my money is on incompetence under intense pressure.

I don’t buy engine failure as the most likely explanation. The flightradar profile just ends part way through normal climb out. Even on one engine it could have cruised around and landed back at Tehran.

And Iran don’t want to hand over the evidence so any proper resolution seems unlikely.

Sound like the Iranians might have something to hide:

In a sign of the potential difficulties facing crash investigators, the head of Iran’s civil aviation organisation was quoted as saying the Ukrainian plane’s black box would not be handed over, either to Boeing or the Americans.

From the BBC article:

It reached nearly 8,000ft (2,400m) before the aircraft’s data suddenly disappears.This is unusual and would suggest some type of catastrophic incident on board the plane. We have no evidence at this stage to tell us what caused the incident.

According to a former air crash investigator, any suggestion of engine failure feels premature. This possibility can’t be ruled out at this early stage but an airliner such as the Boeing 737-800 is designed to keep flying if there is an engine failure.

Plus, if there was a failure then we would normally expect the flight data to show the plane’s climb becoming less steep.

Am waiting to see what Cadet Bone Spurs does with extreme interest after this report. I can see Haifa out the window.

MH17 was ripped apart by explosive decompression and targetted the cockpit (as radar guided). I would think that the effects of a similar attack at 8,000ft would be quite different (of course no less deadly)?

Also interesting to note that according to the BBC article 2 passengers were a ‘no show’…..

just going to drop some copy and pastes from wikipedia regarding engine failure and the ability of the 737 to continue and land

737 original, not even classic, or next gen:

November 7, 2007 – Nationwide Airlines Flight 723, a 737-200, had its right engine fall off the wing as it took off from Cape Town, South Africa. The aircraft managed to return safely to the airport.

737-800:

April 17, 2018: Southwest Airlines Flight 1380, a 737-700, made an emergency landing at Philadelphia International Airport following an in-flight engine failure of the left engine. Debris from the engine cracked a cabin window which then failed, causing explosive decompression; a passenger partially ejected from the aircraft later died of her injuries.

November 10, 2008: Ryanair Flight 4102, a 737-800 from Frankfurt-Hahn suffered substantial damage in an emergency landing at Rome Ciampino Airport. The cause of the accident was stated to be birdstrikes affecting both engines

August 27, 2016: Southwest Airlines Flight 3472, a 737-700, experienced an uncontained engine failure in flight from New Orleans, Louisiana to Orlando, Florida. Debris from the engine damaged the airplane fuselage, creating a hole and resulting in a loss of cabin pressure. The aircraft made an emergency landing in Pensacola, Florida. There were no injuries or fatalities

point is, none of these confirmed “engine failure” resulted in an exploding aircraft.

Meh…. It’s all about having a common enemy

Helps Trump with re-election later in the year, while cementing the leaders of Iran in their positions.

Neither side want anything more… it’ll all blow over.

Stand down STW Dad’s army.

Also interesting to note that according to the BBC article 2 passengers were a ‘no show’…..

Interesting in so much as 2 passengers no showing is nothing unusual?

Thats what they want you to think

This World War 3 lark is all frightfully disappointing, isn’t it?

More reminiscent of two pissed blokes shoving each other outside a kebab house at 3 in the morning

LEAVE IT DARREN!! HE’S NOT WORTH IT!

This World War 3 lark is all frightfully disappointing, isn’t it?

Yeah but September ’39 through may 40 was very quiet, bit of economic war and some very limited military action but nothing much, that ended up with mushroom clouds and everything.

Do you not think that Trump being so absolutely mental might actually be beneficial? I mean… the Iranians probably looked at the situation and thought ‘hhhmmmmmmm…. he’s actually mad enough to nuke us. Just cos he can and to say that he had. He’s that insane. Probably best reign it in a bit’

point is, none of these confirmed “engine failure” resulted in an exploding aircraft.

Looking at the video on twitter, there was fire coming out the back of a dot in the night sky.

The explosion happened when it reached the ground.

Passengers often don’t show up; that’s why airlines overbook.

They’ll have been at the bar, squeezing a last pint in

Anti-aircraft missiles won’t explode an airliner into lots of small pieces unless it’s up high – the warheads are too small.

Pictures of shrapnel damage on the fuselage as well – and the Iranians are refusing to hand over the black box.

I would say wait until the investigation is complete but there won’t be one will there.

So was it itchy trigger finger on the part of an Iranian Missile battalion operative, some shadowy black ops with a MANPAD removing a person of interest or just catastrophic failure after its service a few days ago?

and the Iranians are refusing to hand over the black box.

The report I read said they wouldn’t hand it over to the US gvt or Boeing rather than wouldn’t hand it over to anyone. As far as the handing it to the US government is concerned and regardless of idle speculation as to cause, any other week this would be about as surprising as the pope being Catholic and this isn’t any other week.

Considering the glory Boeing covered them selves in over the max crashes, I don’t think I’d be in a hurry to hand it them either.

interest or just catastrophic failure after its service a few days ago?

Do US sanctions include spare parts for Boeings ?

Do US sanctions include spare parts for Boeings ?

Not ones supplied to Ukraine 😉

Anti Aircraft missiles don’t have a fragmentation warhead, they have an expanding rod design, which expands in a disc, basically cutting the aircraft in 2. Fragmentation warheads are an anti personnel design.

Those holes in the wing look remarkably like shed turbine blades after an uncontained engine failure.

Anybody think’s it’ll all been staged, ie trump says to the iranians right this guy has to go, he’s getting it. We’ll let you save face by firing a few warning shots at us, then we’ll get down to a deal.

Trump obviously wants to be the one that puts his name on a deal with iran, hence ripping up obama’s deal. No coincidence he’s on telling the europeans tonight to forget about the last yin.

As for the plane crash, there’s no motive there for either side to shoot down a passenger plane, so I think we can just put that down to co-incidence. I guess the passenger list there would be the only place you could look for motive and find out if there is anything nefarious happening there.

I think it’s just co-incidence though.

If the iranians did it, the US would be screaming blue murder, if the US did it, Iran would claim the same, neither are.

As for the plane crash, there’s no motive there for either side to shoot down a passenger plane, so I think we can just put that down to co-incidence. I guess the passenger list there would be the only place you could look for motive and find out if there is anything nefarious happening there.

I think it’s just co-incidence though.

If the iranians did it, the US would be screaming blue murder, if the US did it, Iran would claim the same, neither are.

do the Russians currently like the Ukranians? (I’ve lost track). Could they have done it to stir things up.

I’d be interested to the the sales book from UK.Gov MoD in the summer… Makes me wonder if this isn’t an opportunity to make some cash for UKPlc.

#cynic/partiallyserious

Did the plane leave from Iran? The Iranians might be the ones who knew who was really on it….

MEHR News Agency reporting at least 80 US Soldiers killed last night with 200 injured.

MEHR News is an Iranian news agency headquartered in Tehran, owned by the Islamic Ideology Dissemination Organization (IIDO). (From WIKI)

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/154310/Over-80-killed-in-IRGC-s-missile-strikes-on-US-airbases-in-Iraq

I do know that the brother of one of my colleagues was on that plane. With his new wife. Unsurprisingly the mood has been rather subdued in my office today.
Miserably the press have been all day outside my colleagues home.

w00dster

Subscriber
MEHR News Agency reporting at least 80 US Soldiers killed last night with 200 injured.

MEHR News is an Iranian news agency headquartered in Tehran, owned by the Islamic Ideology Dissemination Organization (IIDO). (From WIKI)

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/154310/Over-80-killed-in-IRGC-s-missile-strikes-on-US-airbases-in-Iraq

Sounds like the iranians have got a loan of comical ali from the iraqis! 😆

Anti Aircraft missiles don’t have a fragmentation warhead, they have an expanding rod design, which expands in a disc, basically cutting the aircraft in 2. Fragmentation warheads are an anti personnel design.

Those holes in the wing look remarkably like shed turbine blades after an uncontained engine failure.

An expanding rod design is a type of fragmentation warhead, albeit a bloody big lump of expanding metal. If that ring contacts a plane, there are going to be a lot of chucks of metal flying in all directions as well.

The S-300 is supposed to use a standard type of fragmentation warhead.

I find it a bit too coincidental to believe it was an accident but we shall see.

Aviation expert David Learmount has said the crew’s failure – or inability – to communicate has confused aviation experts, “because the implication is that whatever happened was sudden and violent, forcing the crew immediately to fight for control”.

The crew of the Boeing 737-800 did not have the capacity to transmit an emergency call before it descended out of control to impact on the edge of the city.

Mr Learmount said: “Even a catastrophic engine failure – a possibility originally mooted by the Ukrainian authorities but then withdrawn – would be highly unlikely to have such a dramatic effect on control of the aircraft. A 737 is capable of flying safely on just one of its two engines.

“Video released online soon after the accident shows what looks like an aircraft engulfed in flames descending unsteady, parts separating from it as it plunged.

“This video has not yet been authenticated, but if it does indeed show the Ukrainian 737 in its fatal descent, it explains why the Ukrainian authorities, asked whether the aircraft might have been brought down by a missile, have refused to rule it out.”

The Guardian

Us media now confirming it was a missle, blips seen on radar. Maybe a mistake but crikey!!

On bbc now

BBC News – Iran ‘mistakenly shot down Ukraine jet’ – US media
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219

Maybe a mistake but crikey!!

The US made the same mistake 1988 – then lied about it – then admitted –  then gave the guy in charge a medal.

The aircraft was way off course, that is important. It suggests the aircraft already had a problem, and that it was not on a regular flight path so more likely to be taken for an enemy attack.

I’m no accident investigator, but that looks like the sort of damage you could get on a wing where the engine had let go?

The fan blades would likely be contained by the engine cowling – it’s what it’s designed to do. Similarly the turbine blades would be contained by the core. Only a UERF of the discs would make it out to the wing. The discs, in the event that they’re damaged are designed to fracture into 3 large specific pieces. think of them like an odd shaped armour piercing round – they will go through anything on an aircraft without stopping. The damage to a 737 size wing on a 737NG would be substantially larger and a lot more linear in pattern than what you see above.

In addition, there are photos of similar damage to the upper fuselage of the wreckage, which would also be unlikely in the event of a UERF.

It’s possible that the cowling failed to contain a catastrophic failure of the compressor, but again, in such circumstances, the cowling usually contains the initial damage and then the entire LP fan and cowling would beak away due to imbalance and interaction.

The aircraft was way off course, that is important. It suggests the aircraft already had a problem, and that it was not on a regular flight path so more likely to be taken for an enemy attack.

How far off course can it have got in that time?! It was mere minutes after take off. The track to the point radar contact was lost shows nothing out of the ordinary:

New video from Telegram pic.twitter.com/DVBnIgzbwH

— Roman_01 (@Roman_012) January 9, 2020

Seems fairly conclusive. NYTimes have apparently interviewed the amateur cameraman and are considering this video to be genuine.