Viewing 40 posts - 1 through 40 (of 56 total)
  • US Primaries
  • shermer75
    Member

    I am absolutely obsessed with these, and considering no-one else will talk to me about it I thought it best that I should start a thread on here lol.

    So what do people think? Bernie is currently inching ahead, amazingly enough, which would set up a far left versus far right show down at the US presidential election.
    Pete Buttigieg doing so well is also very interesting seeing as his political cv is so thin, as is how Joe Biden’s support seems to have collapsed (although he is expected to do much better in South Carolina). And with Michael Bloomberg set to join on super Tuesday at the beginning of March with all of his megabucks ($300 million spent so far) it’s all to play for really!

    I believe they call them Elementary schools over there.

    Spoiler: Trump wins.

    Pigface
    Member

    Bernie will get screwed out of it again, the Democrats are as self destructive as Labour. Pete B will never be president because nobody knows how to pronounce his surname.

    I like Elizabeth Warren, Super Tuesday will be very interesting to see how much ooomph Bloomberg has.

    I don’t think it is a given that Trump wins but he has to be favourite which is a tragedy.

    Premier Icon MSP
    Subscriber

    I like Elizabeth Warren

    She tried a BS smear on Bernie, and it backfired.

    Gabbard would probably be my choice, but she seems to be going nowhere, and hasn’t been tested in the debates yet.

    Hilary has gone full on mental accusing everyone who isn’t a corrupt corporate centrist of being Russian assets.

    IHN
    Member

    Bernie is currently inching ahead, amazingly enough, which would set up a far left versus far right show down at the US presidential election.landslide for Trump, in the Corbyn/Johnson fashion

    Pigface
    Member

    She tried a BS smear on Bernie, and it backfired.

    That’s politics for you.

    shermer75
    Member

    landslide for Trump, in the Corbyn/Johnson fashion

    I’m not so sure, Bernie is a match for Trump for when it comes to firey rhetoric and maybe that is what it takes to beat him

    Premier Icon P-Jay
    Subscriber

    They’re pretty exciting aren’t they!

    Bernie will get screwed out of it again, the Democrats are as self destructive as Labour.

    Maybe, the ‘problem’ with Bernie is that, like Corbyn his popularity comes from the fact the opposition has lurched so far to the right, if it comes down to a Bernie v Trump election can he gain the middle ground? His policies are very radical by US standards and believe it or not, Trump has huge or (Yuge) approval ratings with republican voters and republican media outlets. The Democrats can’t rely on a low turnout amongst Republicans and certainly not on taking votes from them.

    He’s given a boost by the likes of Joe Rogan endorsing him, he’s no where near Bernie’s base but has cited his consistency and honesty. It gives non-Lefties (or insecure American men) an excuse to vote for him. Of course, Lefties being Lefties at lot of them have decided that Joe is a horrible person and they should have never taken his endorsement – that old keeping the ideology pure problem.

    Anyway, he’s got a much better chance than Corbyn did, the Democrats won the popular vote by millions last time around, they were just in the wrong place, and Bernie, should he be nominated is probably a better candidate than Clinton was

    shermer75
    Member

    Bernie definitely doesn’t represent the mainstream establishment, he’s an outsider like Trump, which would nullify Trump’s ‘drain the swamp’ shtick

    Premier Icon seosamh77
    Subscriber

    Which of sanders policies makes him “far left”?

    gobuchul
    Member

    Which of sanders policies makes him “far left”?

    The ‘Mericans consider him on par with Chairman Mao.

    If he wins the nomination, then it will a landslide for Trump.

    surfer
    Member

    Fascinated by Andrew Yang after reading his book “war on normal people” as well as Andy Sterns “raising the floor” both advocating a UBI.
    Yang has a very progressive and tech focused approach which is a breath of fresh air. Obviously the bulk of Americans dont get the concept…

    MTB-Idle
    Member

    I don’t find it particularly interesting but that’s probably cos I’ve never really understood how it works.

    I get that in a Simon Cowell X Factor type process they are working their way through the contestants to find out who the two finalists are but can someone provide a simple guide to how this works e.g. why do they only go to certain states and in which order (and why that order)?

    Premier Icon frankconway
    Subscriber

    I was surprised that Kamala Harris didn’t gain enough traction.
    As for who’s left in the race – Biden is turning into a no-hoper, Warren isn’t getting much support, Buttigieg doing well so far, Gabbard getting praise for coming 3rd in NH, Sanders out in front but would be a dreadful nomination.
    So, where from here?
    Bloomberg to crash into super tuesday but won’t be enough for nomination; Biden, Warren & Gabbard out; two horse race between Buttigieg and Sanders.
    If Buttigieg, how long before trump and his acolytes go down the gay hate route?
    If Sanders, trump gets another term.
    The sooner the caucus system is totally replaced, the better.

    Premier Icon dannyh
    Subscriber

    If Sanders, trump gets another term.

    Known as ‘doing a Corbyn’, I believe.

    If Sanders is the candidate then the Democrats might as well pack up and piss off.

    shermer75
    Member

    If Sanders is the candidate then the Democrats might as well pack up and piss off.

    Conventional wisdom would very much be in agreement with you, but it may be worth considering that this was very much the Republican’s opinion of Trump, and we all know what happened there. Personally I see Trump and Sanders as being, in many ways, two sides of the same populist coin. Not that Sanders is doing so without integrity, of course, he has that in spades

    shermer75
    Member

    Fascinated by Andrew Yang after reading his book “war on normal people” as well as Andy Sterns “raising the floor” both advocating a UBI.
    Yang has a very progressive and tech focused approach which is a breath of fresh air. Obviously the bulk of Americans dont get the concept…

    He was very interesting! Shame he’s out already, a victim of a very busy field maybe

    Premier Icon tonyg2003
    Subscriber

    Sanders is viewed (as above) as very “left wing” in the US where socialism is a dirty word. Like him or (as most of us do) loathe him, the US economy is doing well under Trump and removing him will require a candidate that unites the democratic party and Sanders is not that. Personally I think that Bloomberg makes a lot of noise and never gets anywhere in the primaries. I suspect Buttigieg will run out of money and Bernie will get the nomination unless the democratic party unites behind another candidate. Lots of democratic party people remember the last time they put up such a “left wing” candidate, McGovern vs Nixon in ’72. It was one of the largest landslides in history. Remind anyone of Corbyn vs Johnston….

    Premier Icon dannyh
    Subscriber

    Personally I see Trump and Sanders as being, in many ways, two sides of the same populist coin. Not that Sanders is doing so without integrity, of course, he has that in spades

    The difference being that left wing populism has to try to convince people to ‘love’ people they may have no instinctive reason to.

    All that right wing populists have to do is convince people to hate other people that they have no logical reason to.

    In the modern world I know which is easier. It was probably always this way.

    shermer75
    Member

    why do they only go to certain states and in which order (and why that order)?

    The order, timing and processes are as random and disordered as you would expect from 50 young nations that were forged at varying times (and with varying degrees of willingness) into a single federation. Recently there has been a push for states to hold their primary as early as possible so that they have more chance of influencing the final nomination- hence so many primaries occurring on the 3rd of March (or ‘Super Tuesday’). Some states are allowed to have primaries in March, I’m not sure why, but this is carefully controlled. It’s also worth noting that the order tends to change a lot too, so each primary season is a bit different to the one before

    shermer75
    Member

    The difference being that left wing populism has to try to convince people to ‘love’ people they may have no instinctive reason to.

    All that right wing populists have to do is convince people to hate other people that they have no logical reason to.

    In the modern world I know which is easier. It was probably always this way.

    Populist socialism has never had any difficulty im getting elected in the rest of the Americas, so maybe it’s the US’s long overdue turn

    Premier Icon dannyh
    Subscriber

    Populist socialism has never had any difficulty im getting elected in the rest of the Americas, so maybe it’s the US’s long overdue turn

    It has had a jolly difficult time staying in power, though.

    The leaders usually end up having accidents that often lead back to US agencies or their proxies.

    Premier Icon piemonster
    Subscriber

    Bernie = Trump Victory

    Premier Icon seosamh77
    Subscriber

    gobuchul

    Member
    Which of sanders policies makes him “far left”?

    The ‘Mericans consider him on par with Chairman Mao.

    I get that, question still stands though.

    American perceptions, much like over here, of left and right, don’t really make much sense in reality! 😆

    Premier Icon FB-ATB
    Subscriber

    Do you have to be a registered democrat/ republican voting in their primaries? What’s to stop a load of republicans voting for a no hope democrat candidate to get them on the ticket?

    Premier Icon tonyg2003
    Subscriber

    Go to berniesanders.com/issues/ to see his policies.

    Some are “very left wing”*. Medicare for all, eliminating medical debt, tax on extreme wealth…

    *for America

    Premier Icon P-Jay
    Subscriber

    The difference being that left wing populism has to try to convince people to ‘love’ people they may have no instinctive reason to.

    All that right wing populists have to do is convince people to hate other people that they have no logical reason to.

    It’s not always the case, the left can stir up hatred with the best of them – Bosses, the Rich, ‘cheap foreign labour’ etc.

    Premier Icon molgrips
    Subscriber

    It’s possible, if his campaigning and speaking is good enough. But I don’t know if it will be.

    However, he won’t hold back against Trump in the debates as Clinton did. It looked like she was persuaded not to be too aggressive in the debates when she clearly could have torn him apart – presumably because her team thought men didn’t like aggressive women.

    Premier Icon martinhutch
    Subscriber

    Gabbard getting praise for coming 3rd in NH,

    Klobuchar, not Gabbard.

    I’m in the ‘Bernie can’t beat Trump’ camp, although I’d probably vote for him if I were American.

    I have a feeling that only Bloomberg or perhaps Warren can do it, the former of which is a sad reflection on the state of US politics.

    Premier Icon FuzzyWuzzy
    Subscriber

    If the Democrats don’t select Bernie then they’re making a big mistake.

    If they do select Bernie then yeah there are echos of Corbyn vs BoJo but Bernie is a far far more credible politician than Corbyn was (or at least how he acted in the months before and during the GE). Corbyn tried to fluff his way through not taking a decisive stance on things he knew were controversial (or at least what his advisers had said were controversial) but in the end that just gave the public the view he was shifty, hiding something and couldn’t be trusted. Played right into Cumming’s socialist demon narrative. That and the fact the UK election was essentially fought over a single issue, there’s a bit more to the US one.

    Bernie on the other-hand is being far more open and IMO has a much better track record

    That said I still think he’ll likely lose to Trump. It’s not just the people that might be worse off under Bernie (paying a bit more tax) that won’t vote for him it’s the disenfranchised masses swallowing the populist crap that won’t vote for him either (even though they’d be much better off with Bernie as President)

    If he does manage to win I really hope he gets control of the Senate as well otherwise it will be another wasted opportunity, like the start of Obama’s presidency.

    Premier Icon MoreCashThanDash
    Subscriber

    I think Bernie Sanders would be great for America – his “far left extreme socialism” as it’s been painted is pretty much UK Lib Dems as far as I can tell.

    I also think that the distrust of anything vaguely “socialist” in America will make him unelectable. I fear they need to find a Democrat equivalent of Tony Blair to beat Trump, basically something not quite as right wing and mad that the waivering voters can get behind

    Premier Icon P-Jay
    Subscriber

    Which of sanders policies makes him “far left”?

    I guess you’ve got to work out what’s central in the US, until recently at least their centre-left (Democrats) were roughly aligned with centre-right (Tories). Bernie is a Democratic Socialist which makes him more Corbyn than Blair which represents a two place move to the left for Democrats (by UK standards of left and right). To a lot of Americans who grew up being fed propaganda that Communism was evil and Socialism is just a step away that’s a big leap.

    gobuchul
    Member

    “Socialist” is an insult in the USA. Even with more moderate people.

    Bernie has absolutely no chance.

    Pigface
    Member

    IMO the American system is a joke, Hilary got one million plus votes than Trump and still lost. It’s hardly what you would call democratic. Same as FPTP. It is there system though and I can’t see them changing it soon.

    What are the odds on Trump trying to go for a third term by changing the rules?

    shermer75
    Member

    What are the odds on Trump trying to go for a third term by changing the rules?

    I can definitely see him trying to do this!

    Premier Icon frankconway
    Subscriber

    martin hutch – yeah, meant klobuchar; too many names so thanks for the correction.

    shermer75
    Member

    martin hutch – yeah, meant klobuchar; too many names so thanks for the correction.

    Apparently this year saw in excess of 250 hopefuls putting themselves up as potential presidential material. Crazy!!!

    shermer75
    Member

    “More than 270 candidates who have not met the criteria to be deemed major candidates have also filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for president in the Democratic Party primary.[28]”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

    IHN
    Member

    I fear they need to find a Democrat equivalent of Tony Blair to beat Trump, basically something not quite as right wing and mad that the waivering voters can get behind

    Which is what Labour need here (again) too. But that’s a different thread…

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