Ukraine Crimea Crisis

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  • Ukraine Crimea Crisis
  • rossi46
    Member

    War. It’s just a shot away.

    So how’s all this going to pan out? Putin is absolutely certain he is acting acceptably. The EU and US are absolutely certain he is potty. China of course is on Russias side and the Ukraine seems to have half the country wanting to be in the EU and the other half wanting to be tied with Russia.

    The US will absolutely not want to get involved militarily, but could it get pushed that way?
    World War 3 anyone?

    Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    The entire European continent is dependent on dodgy Russian money, and most of us on their energy exports.

    We won’t be doing a bloody thing, no matter how much the Americans bluff and bluster. And the shark wrestler knows it! As summed up here

    But at an emergency meeting in Brussels the foreign ministers of Germany, France, Italy and Spain resisted calls for trade sanctions, instead limiting discussion to freezing long-running talks with Russia on visa liberalisation that would have made it easier for Russians to visit Europe. Washington is also threatening to kick Russia out of the G8 group of leading economies, but Berlin opposes that.

    Britain’s attempts to ensure any EU action against Russia over Ukraine would exempt the City of London were embarrassingly revealed when a secret government document detailing the plan was photographed in Downing Street. The document said Britain should “not support, for now, trade sanctions … or close London’s financial centre to Russians”.

    Like other EU countries, and especially Germany, which obtains almost 40% of its gas and oil from Russia, the UK is reluctant to adopt measures that could damage its still fragile economic recovery.

    So, barring Vladimir threatening to nuke the place, thats pretty much the end of that!

    Premier Icon mikewsmith
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    Russia takes crimea and some of the East. Ukraine takes what it can hold West does nothing. The only country that (has enough non gas based energy) can do anything is France.

    Meanwhile on Russia today we are focusing on the fact Ukraine is being run by hammer weilding mad men and put in won’t send troops in yet.

    rossi46
    Member

    I was wondering about the threat of sanctions on Russia, will Mr Putin be laughing at this?
    What can they do to have Russia quaking in its boots?

    Premier Icon binners
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    Well someone must have some compromising pictures of him in his leather gear at a gay orgy in Amsterdam?

    If he put us all out of our misery, stopped wrestling with his true sexuality, confirmed the obvious, and just did a Tom Daley, we could probably put a stop to all this nonsense

    Premier Icon kimbers
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    sanctions, nah
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/04/o-10-ukraine-sanctions-gaffe-city-profits-diplomacy-britain-russia

    im wondering if it was all putins grand plan

    he made sure that his stooge yanukovich got into power, latest estimates are that he dissapeared 70bn of Ukraines cash -probably via the london property market 😉
    he stitched up yushenko and did nothing to wean ukraine off its biggest import- russian gas
    whilst the black market, neoptism and corruption has boomed under him

    meanwhile Russians soldiers are retiring to crimea in ever increasing numbers and Russia had been handing out passports to ethnic ukranians just as they did before the war with georgia.

    Premier Icon FuzzyWuzzy
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    Russia’s economy is already a mess, sanctions won’t do much additional damage, far less than Russia temporarily halting gas exports to the West would do to our economies anyhow.

    I reckon they’ll just end up annexing the Crimea and possibly some of Eastern Ukraine, in return for maintaining Ukraine’s discounted gas agreement (and other existing trade agreements with Russia).

    Junkyard
    Member

    Russia takes crimea and some of the East. Ukraine takes what it can hold West does nothing

    This its a bit of a dogs dinner though and neither the West or the Russians are doing much beyond protecting their own interest.

    Few care about democracy and certainly less than they care about their side winning

    Premier Icon footflaps
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    I hear Tony Blair has just offered to provide free PR advise for Putin, apparently he’s just miss-understood and needs an image make over. Basic stuff that Tony does so well like remembering to wipe the blood off your face after biting the head off a baby…..

    mrmo
    Member

    Think of it like this, is there a “good guy” in Ukraine?

    The simple answer is no, you have the choice of corruption or corruption. Whether the 70Bn went with the current regime, the previous, ever existed, was paid in bribes, has gone to the oligarchs given power or is being used to fund neo Nazis, is anyone guess.

    Premier Icon SaxonRider
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    mikewsmith – Member
    Meanwhile on Russia today we are focusing on the fact Ukraine is being run by hammer weilding mad men and put in won’t send troops in yet.

    Typos aside, this ticks me off. Some of those ‘hammer wielding mad men’ are my friends, and they were willing to die for the sake of living in a country not under the domination of an imperialistic neighbour. There were countless people on the Maidan who have had enough of oligarchs and dictators, and just want to be able to do the good things most of us take for granted. DON’T believe the Kremlin-generated media BS regarding a divided Ukraine. Even the Russian-speaking East (which is only Russian-speaking because Stalin instigated a famine that wiped out between 6 and 10 million people between 1932 and 1933) is not necessarily ‘pro-Russian’. They just speak the language.

    As for the whole ‘neo-Nazi’ accusation, this arises from the long-standing accusation regarding Stepan Bandera, a hero to many in the West who fought alongside the Germans when they invaded the Soviet Union, that he was sympathetic to their cause. Well, if I had have seen what happened to my fellow countrymen only a few years before at the hands of Stalin, then I might have been sympathetic to their cause to: that is, destroying the Soviets.

    Ukraine and Ukrainians need our support.

    I think the big thing here is not necessarily the fear of war over Ukraine. It’s that Ukraine, upon seceding from the USSR, gave up its entire 1900 warhead nuclear arsenal in return for strict assurances that its borders would remain sacred. The fact that they have been ignored by the Russian army while the rest of the free world stands by and tuts under their breath means we can kiss goodbye to any more nuclear non-proliferation agreements.

    This is sending out a very clear message. If you don’t have nukes, you’re fair game.

    *That’s* the worry in all of this.

    Premier Icon martinhutch
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    I hold no particular anti-Maidan viewpoint, and I’m sure the majority of them are acting entirely in good faith, but being driven by the historic hatred of the Russians (and how it has been expressed by some in recent days) is no more justified than the Irish attacking us for starving millions of them in the 1700s.

    Any government of Ukraine needs to be on reasonable terms with Russia. it is just the way it is, politically and geographically. Freedom in any democracy is normally a series of compromises, and unfortunately, when your neighbour is a large, paranoid superpower, those compromises tend to be more obvious.

    I have immense sympathy for ordinary Ukrainians. Must be a terrifying episode, but they have been let down by their leadership, before, during and after the current overthrowing of the government.

    Premier Icon epicyclo
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    As a Scot supporting independence, I’m delighted to see our beloved leader leap in to the defence of countries wanting their freedom from a former overlord.

    I’m sure with his new found enthusiasm for democracy, he’ll now revise his opposition to Scotland’s independence.

    Just a mo…

    Is that the sound of flapping pigs wings I hear passing by? 🙂

    IanW
    Member

    Putin doesn’t need any PR advice, especially not from a money grabbing degenerate like Blair. He (Putin) consistently proves to be the cleverest national leader of our time, the fact he’s also an authoritarian bully is overshadowed by his repeated out manoeuvring of our half wit leaders and general largeness of gonads.

    He may be a **** but he’s also a very clever one.

    rossi46
    Member

    Just read of Russia test firing a nuclear missile!!
    I know they do it quite often but bloody hell, talk about timing!
    All this (and any similar) situation needs is an act of stupidity to escalate it into something so much worse.

    wrightyson
    Member

    If I see any shares coming up in fracking companies I’m most certainly gonna hit the buy it now button!

    Premier Icon kimbers
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    Germany must be crapping themselves

    Turning away from nuclear not so smart now !

    Premier Icon epicyclo
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    rossi46 – Member
    Just read of Russia test firing a nuclear missile!!
    I know they do it quite often but bloody hell, talk about timing!
    All this (and any similar) situation needs is an act of stupidity to escalate it into something so much worse.

    I thought they might be doing that to check what tracking devices the other side have, or more importantly where they are.

    kimbers – Member
    Germany must be crapping themselves

    Turning away from nuclear not so smart now !

    If a million Glaswegians aren’t crapping themselves, they’re not paying attention.

    The Germans are less likely to get mushrooms.

    rossi46
    Member

    I thought they might be doing that to check what tracking devices the other side have, or more importantly where they are.

    Well yes, the scary thing here is the fighting talk and the mistrust between the two former enemies. It’s not just about Ukraine it’s about one of these two striking at the other first. If not over Ukraine then some other future situation.
    I don’t think the cold war ever really went away, and Putin is a product of that time. He was former KGB wasn’t he?

    Premier Icon mikewsmith
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    SaxonRider – Member

    mikewsmith – Member
    Meanwhile on Russia today we are focusing on the fact Ukraine is being run by hammer weilding mad men and put in won’t send troops in yet.

    Typos aside, this ticks me off. Some of those ‘hammer wielding mad men’ are my friends, [/quote]
    Typo’s aside the point was RT was running a huge propaganda campaign to show that the Ukraine was being taken over by extremists and to soften people up to the idea that they will roll in and save the day. There are some in here who think it’s a great source if independent unbiased reporting, in this case it’s worse than Sky and the Mail.

    Premier Icon martinhutch
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    There are some in here who think it’s a great source if independent unbiased reporting.

    Really? I tend to watch RT and a few others, and try to meet in the middle. For all the obvious propaganda on RT, it is worth a watch just as a benchmark of Russian gvt attitudes. You can watch it with a wry smile…

    I enjoyed their little feature earlier this evening on the many mansions of all the likely/unlikely candidates in the forthcoming election, with the implication that all had significantly enriched themselves using Ukraine’s assets…Princess Leia Yulia apparently has a huge pile on the coast with a yacht mooring.

    shermer75
    Member

    I would say that Crimea will form a breakaway republic which supports and is supported by Russia, and will be a bone of contention for decades to come, a bit like the carving up of Cyprus. I also think that Putin doesn’t think he’s acting acceptably but knows exactly what he is doing, which is pushing his luck like the shyster he is and knowing he will get away with it.

    is no more justified than the Irish attacking us for starving millions of them in the 1700s.

    It’s always good to check your history when you throw out similes on Internet forums. The 1700s? 🙂

    satchm00
    Member

    William Hague said there will be grave consequences. Guess the tax on vodka just went up 100% then.

    Premier Icon epicyclo
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    satchm00 – Member
    William Hague said there will be grave consequences. Guess the tax on vodka just went up 100% then.

    It’s laughable. Like the wee boy boy mouthing off at a big lad.

    The sooner this country forgets its imperial delusions, the sooner it will prosper.

    Premier Icon seosamh77
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    . If a million Glaswegians aren’t crapping themselves, they’re not paying attention.

    or we’ve just grown accustomed to spotting bullshit from the British media.

    Premier Icon seosamh77
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    Premier Icon epicyclo
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    seosamh77 – Member
    “If a million Glaswegians aren’t crapping themselves, they’re not paying attention.”
    or we’ve just grown accustomed to spotting bullshit from the British media.

    My thinking was if it came down to a limited action, then hitting a nuclear base near a place like Glasgow would be a good option (for the Russians, not us).

    Firstly it takes out a launch area.

    So if the Russians then said we have launched a limited response to a perceived threat, but let’s talk about this before it goes any further, then negotiations would commence.

    The USA wouldn’t care too much because it wasn’t on them. London couldn’t do anything anyway because we need USA permission to launch if we had any remaining capacity, and Glasgow has always been regarded as disposable since they placed the base next door.

    Negotiations would open with the west shitting itself after seeing the devastation in Glasgow and Russia holding the whiphand.

    Premier Icon martinhutch
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    It’s always good to check your history when you throw out similes on Internet forums. The 1700s?

    What’s a century between friends and neighbours? 🙂

    No one is going to take out the home of battered Mars bars that’s a given,they live on buckfast so won’t give a toss about vodka sanctions, not sure if your trolling.

    Premier Icon epicyclo
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    misinformer – Member
    No one is going to take out the home of battered Mars bars that’s a given, not sure if your trolling.

    Well they certainly would have an excess of deep fried something, but no, not trolling.

    I was musing how you could make a statement in this confrontation, and a limited nuclear action would appeal to certain hawks.

    The next step was to consider what are legitimate targets for that, which comes down to nuclear bases.

    For maximum effect you need a target that will cause a lot of civilian casualties to produce sufficient pressure on the enemy government.

    The attack couldn’t be on the USA, because they would respond regardless, but if it was on a weak ally, then the USA would be more likely to hold back.

    Now where do the Russians think the USA has a weak ally? Putin’s contempt for the UK is well known, so that would be us.

    Target English military bases and there would be too much pressure for a response, but there’s a convenient one in Scotland hundreds of miles from anywhere important (to the UK govt).

    Pessimistic thinking I know, but I grew up in the height of the Cold War when we were all targets and discussions of scenarios like this was a regular part of life.

    Today I think we’re in a similar state to just before WW1, no-one believes it can blow up, but right now one wrong bullet could be the trigger for escalation.

    Of course, USA hawks may have similar thinking…

    Premier Icon wwaswas
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    I do like the Private Eye front cover;

    Some guy on radio 4 just now who is supposed to have written the definitive biography of Putin.

    Talks about how Putin has a firm belief in “Greater Russia” and how bits of other countries really belong in that greater Russia.

    Sounds familiar.

    Premier Icon seosamh77
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    Epicycpo – you do know that the nukes at faslane are in submarines, aye? Seems kinda pointless nuking a base when the nukes arent likely to be there.

    I’d suggest your hysteria, is a tad premature and unnecessary! (Much like it would have been at the height of the cold war proxy wars):lol:

    Mr Woppit
    Member

    I note that, after more weak bluster from Obama, the markets have recovered today – Rouble/Oil/Gold – and apart from a few warning shots the whole situation has so far stayed bloodless and relatively calm on the ground.

    Putin underlined his position by testing a couple of ICBM’s earlier in the week as well.

    Apart from all the bollox from Obama, the only other thing the West has done is give Kerry and Hague a long weekend each in Kiev.

    I’m beginning to think that the shark wrestler is a really sharp tactician. I bet his strategy’s equally solid.

    Good tactician, poor strategist IMO.

    I don’t get this the west have been crap argument. All sides underestimated what was happening and may be the west was a little naive. But we have been right up to the brink of a dangerous conflict with a non NATO country that is strategically important to Russia and the west. Despite being caught unawares, no shots have been fired, tension has been calmed and Russia has stepped back (albeit only v slightly).

    So hats off to the politicians so far, no blood shed over this weekend when in could have been chaos. Thank goodness the hawks are kept in check. For all the Obama/Hague criticism, why is the same not angled at Merkel. Look how calm yet firm she has been. No histrionics, a few choice words but a shrewd and calm response for someone whose borders are closer than most. And great that we have followed the same suit. Our position is clear even if our tactics are not. But so far, so good. Let’s hope this alternative style of Cold War politics is successful without the screaming and pain of mothers with sons lost on the latest fields of conflict. The emotive names of Crimea, balaklava etc need to stay in the history books not current affairs.

    Premier Icon seosamh77
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    no blood shed

    There’s been no bloodshed, because the russians don’t want any, bugger all to do with western politicians!

    Despite what the beeb would have you believe(their reporting really has been bordering on hysterical) it’s been nowhere near war imo.

    angled at Merkel

    I see what you did there. 🙂

    Premier Icon kimbers
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    markets have recovered today – Rouble/Oil/Gold –

    erm russia has had to put up intrest rates to 7% and spent 11bn bailing out the rouble yesterday, not exactly happy days!

    I am glad you are so sanguine.

    Premier Icon seosamh77
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    teamhurtmore – Member
    I am glad you are so sanguine.

    Actions speak louder than rhetoric to me.

    Premier Icon kimbers
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    im loving the russian denials

    Mr Lavrov said that Moscow could not give orders to the armed groups in Crimea because they are local self-defence forces and not under Russian command.
    “Who are these pro-Russian forces? We have no control over them. They don’t receive our orders,” Mr Lavrov told a news conference in Madrid. He added that all forces affiliated to Russia’s own Black Sea fleet, which is based in Crimea, were inside their bases.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/617b9516-a443-11e3-9cb0-00144feab7de.html#axzz2v5SCkQ7R


    these concerned ukranians in the latest russian military gear seem to have borrowed lots of russian military vehicles too!

    deadlydarcy – Member
    angled at Merkel
    I see what you did there.

    I’m impressed you got it deadly. Took a couple of minutes that one.

    If rhetoric works instead if bullets then hats off to the politicians here, especially as US/UK/EU interests are quite different. Russia has a tremendous amount to lose here, which is why I question the strategic nous on display.

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