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  • Ukraine
  • kimbers
    Full Member

    Currently a big advance by Russians and Ukraine are struggling to hold them back, extra meat for the grinder will help the Russians

    1
    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    ^^Thanks for the insight there. <Thumbs up.>

    2
    timba
    Free Member

    Let’s see what happens with the additional troops from NK. When the first NK PoWs turn up then things will have changed

    There have been NK engineer troops in this conflict for some time now, along with NK artillery rounds and missiles, but this isn’t being given to Russia for free. If Ukraine is whipped up into a fury by talk of an operationally insignificant number of “Special Forces” and launches an attack on their training camps then NK might take it personally. This can only help the Russian cause and lower the costs to them and the strain on the Russian economy

    SKorea has stayed out of this directly because internal policy dictates that it doesn’t get involved in ongoing wars. Their President doesn’t have the support to over-turn that policy, but factor in NK troops getting front-line experience and that support could be forth-coming.

    SKorea already supplies Poland with armoured vehicle expertise (the Polish Krab has a SKorean chassis) and has supplied Poland and others (but not Ukraine directly) with additional materiel.

    Bringing SKorea directly in would be a mistake for Russia, so let’s see where the NK troops end up

    RustyNissanPrairie
    Full Member

    It does feel like it’s a slow moving train wreck leading to (a conventional / non nuclear) WW3.

    4
    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    RustyNissanPrairie
    Full Member
    It does feel like it’s a slow moving train wreck leading to (a conventional / non nuclear) WW3.

    Handled correctly it could lead to a more stable world. A diminished Putin and renewed confidence within Western style democracies

    However. Trump.

    5
    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    One potentially worrying thing recently for global stability and proliferation post conflict. Ukraine have intimated that if they aren’t given the security of NATO membership or something closely approximating it, then they will pursue the development of nuclear weapons to protect against future Russian aggression. Because of their civil nuclear programme and sophisticated engineering and defence industries they could likely do it in very short order.

    Whilst it will wind Putin up immensely, a much better option would be to give Ukraine a proper article 5 style guarantee immediately after any ceasefire. Far better than the further proliferation of nukes.  Especially as that would break a taboo and encourage Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and who knows else to do it because of their own security fears.  It’s lose/lose for Russia – Ukraine will end up being either a NATO member or become a nuclear power.  Much like Finland and Sweden joining NATO, a shit ton of unforeseen negative consequences for Russia of Putin’s attempted land grab.

    3
    rickmeister
    Full Member

    It does feel like it’s a slow moving train wreck leading to (a conventional / non nuclear) WW3.

    It does feel like America is voting on a global future as well as for their own President.

    1
    hatter
    Full Member

    a much better option would be to give Ukraine a proper article 5 style guarantee immediately after any ceasefire.

    Whilst that would certainly reduce the chances of Putin ‘having another go’ a ceasefire right now would leave vast swathes of internationally recognized Ukrainian sovereign territory under Russian occupation.

    This will be an inherently unstable situation, Urainian resistance inside these territories is not going to stop just because of a piece of paper and neither will the brutal repression of this resistance. all the while with a rebuilt and battle hardened Ukrainian military just next door watching their countrymen get slaughtered on land that’s rightfully theirs.

    Zelensky seems to have a cool head but that leaves him open to challenges from an opposition candidate willing to bang the drum of nationalist grievance and there’s no lack of material for them to work from.

    If a year or two down the line Ukraine attacks the Donbas or Crimea as a result of this, where will NATO stand?

    Anything short of a full return to the 2022 and preferably the 2014 borders will be inherently precarious.

    If Trump gets a 2nd term and fatally undermines NATO you can expect a swath of ‘Western’ countries as well as South Korea and Japan to seek nuclear weapons to act as their guarantee against future Russian or Chinese aggression, now the US can no longer be relied upon.

    2
    DT78
    Free Member

    Isn’t part of the reason for ukraine occupying some of russian land is to make an immediate ceasefire where the occupier retains the land they have captured completely unfeasible?

    Not that I think any ceasefire is likely or worth the paper its written on.

    2
    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    To be clear, I am not suggesting Ukraine should enter a ceasefire now or accept any loss of territory. That’s up to them. I would dearly love to see them regain all occupied territory back to 2014 borders including Crimea.  But as desirable as this is, it doesn’t seem likely to me.  I think they will have to accept some loss of territory.  It grieves me to say it and I know that will leave a very unstable situation, but I think that’s what is most likely.  Despite my suggestion that NATO should accept Ukraine, I don’t think they actually will in those circumstances.  So Ukraine will probably have no choice but to develop a nuclear programme and the world will become a bit more unstable 🙁

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    ^^ Regrettably I suspect we will see an enen less stable version of Korea’s DMZ.

    The Donbas wont be a nice place to live for sure. There will be a lot of pissed off Ukrainians with military training constantly pushing back at Russia. Not much of a victory for Putin.

    dyna-ti
    Full Member

    I am not suggesting Ukraine should enter a ceasefire now or accept any loss of territory.

    That might be Trumps solution should he win.

    If Ukraine doesnt go for it, the war drags on, possibly even forcing Ukraine to the table and the option then is the loss of greater territory than had they accepted the earlier deal.

    2
    bikesandboots
    Full Member

    Anders had stuff to say about the nuclear stuff a few days ago

    timba
    Free Member
    timba
    Free Member

    Ukraine (and Europe) is at a crossroads, the EU still hasn’t delivered 1 mn artillery shells that were promised by March 2024.

    NK troops aren’t confirmed in front-line action yet, but the use of NK troops will accelerate if that escalation is allowed without positive actions from the “west” and is a potential bellwether.

    This article seems to be pretty balanced, it is split by full-width references to other articles, so keep scrolling (5 min read) https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-is-creating-the-conditions-for-russian-victory-in-ukraine/

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    NK troops aren’t confirmed in front-line action yet, but the use of NK troops will accelerate if that escalation is allowed without positive actions from the “west” and is a potential bellwether.

    I think there will be a bit of a shock factor involved here too. For pretty much all the wrong reasons (other than WW2)  Western nations have been overly keen to indulge in wars in Asia. I think it will come as a genuine shock when/if video emerges of NK troops fighting on European soil, on roads that look much like any road in Europe or the US.

    From Ukraine’s perspective, I hope that shock can literally be weaponised against Russia.

    Next week is highly important for Ukraine of course, it’s utterly depressing that their entire nations future rests upon an election thousands of miles away from them.

    Either way, Americas focus is understandably pivoting towards the Pacific and it’s time Europe put it’s big boy’s pants on and took responsibility for it’s own defence. America is just not reliable anymore.

    2
    DrJ
    Full Member

    From Ukraine’s perspective, I hope that shock can literally be weaponised against Russia.

    If it results in South Korea being persuaded to supply some of its vast stockpile of shells, it will maybe be a massive own goal.

    3
    hatter
    Full Member

    Well, in more positive news it looks like all that money Putin spent trying to buy the Moldovan democratic process was money wasted.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz7w9dglzzlo

    All that money could have bought a whole load of kit to chuck at Ukraine.. win-win

    Now…. about Transnistria.

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    Yep, a renewed Soviet empire not going so will for Putin.

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