Viewing 40 posts - 18,641 through 18,680 (of 18,922 total)
  • Ukraine
  • slowoldman
    Full Member

    I do wonder how long the status quo in Kalinigrad will hold…

    …See also Transnistria, South Ossetia etc.

    The status of Kaliningrad is completely different to Transnistria and South Ossetia.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    Shortage of artillery, air defense and soldiers is going to hit Ukraine harder and harder, especially if Russia launches a big offensive in the summer

    To temper your pessimism. There is a view that to carry out any major offensives Russia needs more manpower i.e. additional mobilisation over and above the annual round that happens every year. They haven’t done that yet, surprising many commentators who expected Putin to announce it soon after he “won” (rigged) the recent elections. There is a very significant “flash to bang” from announcing mobilisation to fielding fully trained and combat effective personnel. Months. So even if they announce a significant mobilisation tomorrow, it probably wouldn’t increase manpower sufficiently in time for a major summer offensive this year.

    The Ukrainian defences are extremely robust and being constantly improved. It is always very costly to attack well prepared defensive positions. Russia will probably continue to make small incremental but strategically insignificant gains through cynical human wave assaults. I suspect though, that will be the sum total of their Summer offensive. I suspect Ukraine will be quite content to see Russia expend huge numbers of their forces and equipment at the cost of a few hundred metres or the odd demolished village here and there. I’m not diminishing the cost in Ukrainian lives, but as defenders it will be vastly less than for the invaders.

    In the meantime, some of the artillery shell initiatives by the Czechs and others are going to start kicking in for Ukraine. The F16s will arrive, the Ukrainians will continue their clever asymmetric tactics against Russian airbases, Crimea, oil and gas Infrastructure the Black Sea fleet etc. All the time piling pressure on Putin. I get that this is an optimistic take and factors like the US elections could have a big impact, but I wouldn’t bet against Ukraine just yet.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    small incremental but strategically insignificant gains

    I’m not sure how credible it is, or even where I saw it (probably Twitter). But the monthly total territorial changes since December 2022 hasn’t exceeded 0.05% of Ukraine. Usually quite a bit less than that.

    Be interested to find out if that’s true or bobbins.

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    Sounds about right.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    On the subject of a Russian summer offensive, this from Anders Puck Nielsen is worth a watch.

    Be interested to find out if that’s true or bobbins.

    It also covers the scale of recent Russian territorial gains.

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    Anders is always worth a watch 👍

    rickmeister
    Full Member

    From the news about attacks on power plants oh how I wish SAS were tasked in Russia.

    Exit VP.

    America. Japan had something to say. Speaker Johnson. It’s your time to step up.

    timba
    Free Member

    Speaker Johnson. It’s your time to step up.

    He’s off to Mar-a-Lago today to meet Donald Trump. Mike Johnson has the threat of Marjorie Taylor Greene attempting to boot him out of the Speaker’s post hanging over him. If he’s going to bring the Ukraine vote to the floor then Trump will need to pave the way.

    Discharge motion 9 to sidestep Speaker Johnson has reached 195/218 signatures required for a vote

    timba
    Free Member

    Czech President Petr Pavel said today (12th) that Czechia has discovered over a million pieces of artillery ammunition around the world that can be purchased for Ukraine outside Europe. The separate EU-led initiative has fallen short due to current production problems and disagreement

    The president added that the Czech-led initiative is not the only one. “Estonia and the United Kingdom are developing a similar one, and France has also spoken about it,” he added.

    https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/12/7183680/

    Once the 18 donor countries have paid, many of whom are publicity-shy, delivery to Ukraine could be as early as June.

    More in-depth read here https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/inside-europes-drive-get-ammunition-ukraine-russia-advances-2024-03-06/

    There is a separate UK/Latvia-led international drone supply initiative for 1mn UAVs https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/02/15/uk-and-latvia-lead-coalition-to-provide-thousands-of-drones-to-ukraine

    timba
    Free Member

    …the threat of Marjorie Taylor Greene attempting to boot him out of the Speaker’s post…

    “I think he’s doing a very good job, he’s doing about as good as you’re going to do and I’m sure that Marjorie understands that,” Spells it out to MTG https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4591214-trump-johnson-ouster-threat-greene/

    If he’s going to bring the Ukraine vote to the floor then Trump will need to pave the way

    “Former President Trump on Friday signaled an openness to Republicans approving additional aid for Ukraine in its war against Russia if it came in the form of a loan.”

    That was suggested some time ago. President Biden and Trump are currently neck and neck in the polls at 44%, it’s ironic that Donald Trump could seize the initiative by sorting out aid to Ukraine while keeping voters happy by making it a loan. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4591221-trump-ukraine-aid-were-thinking-about-making-it-in-the-form-of-a-loan/

    nickc
    Full Member

    Thanks for posting the YouTube @blokeuptheroad, that was informative.

    kormoran
    Free Member

    Can someone point out in simpleton terms exactly what it is between the maga crowd/Putin/Ukraine?

    Like I understand it’s politics and all that and there’s leverage but what specifically is the issue?

    Does it really all boil down to the trump/zelensky thing?

    And where does the Taylor green woman fit in?

    Thanks

    dissonance
    Full Member

    Can someone point out in simpleton terms exactly what it is between the maga crowd/Putin/Ukraine?

    I dont think there is an single answer. There are different groups even within the maga crowd and then different views in still somewhat republican crowd. A few possible reasons would be:

    Isolationist.

    Should be concentrating on Middle East

    Should be concentrating on China as an opponent.

    Then getting into the maga/Trump lot

    Biden supports it so we dont.

    For some, including Trump, I think its because he sees strongman dictators as a goal and hence tends to side with them.

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    ^^ A good summary and the huge culture war in America plays a big part too. A lot of the MAGA lot love Putin because he doesn’t like gays/trans etc etc. I’ve seen that come up a lot on Twitter.

    Turns out that many (the far right) in the Land of the Free only want some people to be free…

    hatter
    Full Member

    Biden supports it so we dont.

    Nail:Head

    In MAGA world Biden is basically Satan so he cannot be allowed any kind of win regardless of how it damages the wider interests of America.

    Biden got to oversee the initial Vaccine rollout early in his term, that could have made him very popular so the MAGA crowd went hard into anti-vax conspiracies, inadvertently killing thousands of their own base in the process.

    There’s not much more to it than that.

    kormoran
    Free Member

    Thanks for that, appreciated

    Some angles I hadn’t considered before 👍

    andrewh
    Free Member

    If you want the conspiracy theory answer it’s that the Russians helped him get into power and he needs their help to win again and/or owes them one and/or they have some sort of hold over him.

    Most conspiracy theories turn out to be BS but occasionally one is correct

    timba
    Free Member

    Can someone point out in simpleton terms exactly what it is between the maga crowd/Putin/Ukraine?

    The main thing for Europeans is whether Ukraine gets much needed military aid, US politics is a sideshow in that specific context

    Despite reassuring words from both Speaker Johnson and Donald Trump I’m not holding my breath. Unfortunately the conflict in Gaza has now limited support amongst US Democrats because Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan are all intertwined in the same bill, along with humanitarian aid for people in Gaza.

    Aid for Ukraine (and others) would have been passed more easily months ago had Mike Johnson and Donald Trump not slowed the vote process down to stalling-point, which is your point…

    Here’s a short piece from 2022… https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/28/politics/trump-putin-ukraine-russia-smart/index.html and this series of letters from 2007 onward https://www.businessinsider.com/revealed-donald-trump-letters-to-vladimir-putin-miss-universe-russia-2020-8

    As to Ukraine, in 2017 President Trump was the first to supply modern, more serious weapons to Ukraine, including Javelin anti-tank missiles. In return he wanted information that he could use in the next election against Joe Biden’s campaign, which he didn’t get.

    Dr. Charles Kupperman, his deputy national security adviser, said that a “profanity-laced rant at a 2019 meeting when the topic of Ukraine came up, according to a former aide, falsely accusing the country of trying to defeat him in the 2016 US election.”… https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-thrown-into-rage-by-subject-of-ukraine-former-aide-2022-4

    And where does the Taylor green woman fit in?

    She doesn’t agree with funding Ukraine and acts accordingly

    timba
    Free Member

    All of the ZNPP nuclear reactors will now be put into “cold shutdown” https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-223-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

    This means that the reactors are below 200F and the cooling system is at atmospheric pressure. It’ll still be a disaster if something radio-active is breached, but there’s more time to sort problems out if a less critical disaster occurs. Maintenance and monitoring is still needed

    hatter
    Full Member

    A long-serving NYT correspondent who had covered Congress for over a decade was asked last year what MTG’s deal was.

    I’m paraphrasing him from memory but his response was along the lines of “Don’t credit her with complex motives or sincere ideology, she’s deeply unpleasant and not very bright everything she says and does springs from those two facts”

    Sadly she’s in the deepest of deep.red districts so unlike many of her GOP collegues she can be as bonkers as she wants without having to worry much about the voters and she has a very rich father who bankrolled her into that position in the first place so she doesn’t have to seek donations.

    This is what happens if you entertain the headbangers, next thing you know they’re running the show.

    DT78
    Free Member

    just read a story about “double tap” missle strikes by russia. sickening

    hatter
    Full Member

    A tactic honed in Syria and specifically designed to kill Ambulance crews.

    This is Putin’s Russia, please remember that whenever someone is carping on saying that if we just give him what he wants the  everything will be fine amd we’ll all have free petrol.

    FB-ATB
    Full Member

    his response was along the lines of “Don’t credit her (MTG) with complex motives or sincere ideology, she’s deeply unpleasant and not very bright everything she says and does springs from those two facts”

    sounds like the US version of Liz Truss!

    piemonster
    Full Member

    I’m hoping Liz doesnt turn up in parliament with “sex pics” of someone she doesnt like on a display board, which MTG has.

    You know what, I cant tell reality from fantasy anymore with those MAGA headbangers. I really need to double check that actually happened.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Oh damn, it did happen, I was really hoping not.

    cobrakai
    Full Member

    hatterFull Member

    A tactic honed in Syria and specifically designed to kill Ambulance crews.

    IRA used it for years.

    hatter
    Full Member

    IRA used it for years.

    The IRA fortuately didnt have SU-34’s but I get the point.

    timba
    Free Member

    “Former President Trump on Friday signaled an openness to Republicans approving additional aid for Ukraine in its war against Russia if it came in the form of a loan.”

    US Speaker Mike Johnson has had the idea of “new House bills (to) provide roughly the same amount of foreign aid as the Senate bill but would include differences including some aid in the form of a loan”… “Three of the four bills Johnson suggested would cover Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific. The makeup of the fourth was not immediately clear.” https://www.reuters.com/world/us/long-delayed-ukraine-israel-aid-bill-could-hit-us-house-floor-soon-2024-04-15/

    This will further delay aid to Ukraine while the detail is discussed, voted on, passed to the Senate, discussed, voted on…

    nickc
    Full Member

    Also don’t forget that Zelensky was the president that Trump was trying to bribe to get dirt on Hunter Biden, so there’s also personal animus between them. For much of the Alt-Right/ Far-Right in the US Putin is also a fellow Christian and running his country in a way that they like, they think he’s strongly anti LBGTI, pro family and very much anti-woke. He may or may not be aligned with their philosophy, but he’s happy to use it to undermine support for Ukraine in the same way that he uses things like NATO encroachment and anti EU rhetoric to gain support amongst the left

    FuzzyWuzzy
    Full Member

    As much as I wish the US would hurry up and sort Ukraine funding out, the rest of NATO could and should be doing a lot more. Yes, only the US really have the military industrial capacity to provide mass shipments of ammunition and weapons systems in the short-term but other countries aren’t expanding their capacity quickly enough and now the expired and legacy stuff they’ve already sent has largely been exhausted they’re just back to talking about supporting Ukraine rather than sending the volume of supplies they actually need.

    squirrelking
    Free Member

    All of the ZNPP nuclear reactors will now be put into “cold shutdown” https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-223-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

    This means that the reactors are below 200F and the cooling system is at atmospheric pressure. It’ll still be a disaster if something radio-active is breached, but there’s more time to sort problems out if a less critical disaster occurs. Maintenance and monitoring is still needed

    They’ve only had one in hot shutdown at any one time, just listened to a presentation on this.

    timba
    Free Member

    An S400 air defence missile system has been destroyed in Crimea. From reports it appears to be the whole system and not just the relatively easy-to-replace launchers

    “Damage to the latest S-400 system has been confirmed, with the launcher being blown up and serious damage done to the other machines of the system”

    It doesn’t seem to be the work of the Atesh resistance movement, who have confirmed the damage, and some on SM are attributing the strikes to ATACMS, which is ironic because the S400 is billed as capable of destroying similar systems https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/17/7451658/

    timba
    Free Member

    An explosion is reported at an ammunition factory at Glascoed.

    Yep, Wales. Fortunately, no injuries are reported, which I’m taking as no fatalities (but that isn’t specified) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-68836649

    80% of general munitions for the British Army are made there, which may impact on supplies to Ukraine as well

    timba
    Free Member

    US Speaker Mike Johnson is hoping for a vote on Donald Trump’s suggested loan aid to Ukraine on Saturday 21st.

    Congress begins recess on Friday 20th and doesn’t return for a week. Unless the Senate schedules something during recess it’s hard to see progress before the end of April.

    Mike Johnson could just put the oven-ready deal on the floor to vote now and it’ll be signed by President Biden before the end of this week.

    The discharge motion to avoid Johnson is stuck at 195/218

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    What I don’t get is that there are 20 Democrats who haven’t signed that bill 🤷‍♂️

    Jordan
    Full Member

    An explosion is reported at an ammunition factory at Glascoed.

    Yep, Wales. Fortunately, no injuries are reported, which I’m taking as no fatalities (but that isn’t specified) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-68836649

    80% of general munitions for the British Army are made there, which may impact on supplies to Ukraine as well

    Did you actually read that report you linked?

    welshfarmer
    Full Member

    Mate of mine who was riding with us tonight works in the Glascoed munitions factory. Luckily he does WFH on a wednesday. He didn’t know much more about the explosion other than it didn’t appear to be overly serious.

    timba
    Free Member

    Did you actually read that report you linked?

    Yes. If you’re asking about fatalities then it isn’t spelled out; fatalities are often separated from injuries

    If it’s something else then you’ll need to clarify your point

    nixie
    Full Member

    The article referenced explosion in an area dismantling not producing munitions during a risky part of the procedure.

    slowoldman
    Full Member

    80% of general munitions for the British Army are made there, which may impact on supplies to Ukraine as well

    If it’s something else then you’ll need to clarify your point

    From the article:

    “It said there were no injuries and no risk to local residents and production was unaffected”.

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