• This topic has 19,069 replies, 528 voices, and was last updated 1 week ago by timba.
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  • Ukraine
  • 2
    hatter
    Full Member

    This is what happens when you get into an extended conflict with a country where the population  more or less look like yours and most speak your language fluently.

    Makes recruitment for infiltration and sabotage operations considerably easier.

    rickmeister
    Full Member

    So the Republicans seemed to have blocked their own compromise Border Security and Ukraine Support bill…
    Trump decision on being on teh ballot goes up to the supreme court for a nationwide ruling instead of a state by state version.

    Putin just needs to keep lobbing missiles into Ukraine until November when he and teh west get clarity on the next phase.
    Trump wins = Ukraine is cut by the US
    Democrat win = US re-engages fully.

    I wonder if the F16 jets are on provisional hold for the same reason/timeline although there are European offers but the US ones, could they go to the Middle East?

    timba
    Free Member

    So the Republicans seemed to have blocked their own compromise Border Security and Ukraine Support bill…
    Trump decision on being on teh ballot goes up to the supreme court for a nationwide ruling instead of a state by state version.

    They have blocked it. Donald Trump sees that he has one chance to avoid imprisonment and that’s to become President (if he can simultaneously delay the Courts).

    He perceived border control to be President Biden’s weakness and has gone for it, the problem being that the bi-partisan bill would have taken that one advantage away from him. Blocking border control gives him another few months to attack Biden and then debate head-to-head in November on border control.

    In the meantime he’s destroying any credibility that the Republican Party has, which most republican politicians don’t seem to get. Despite controlling the House of Representatives and the US speaker, the Reps have failed to get two pieces of legislation through this week; one was the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who Reps blame for the surge in illegal immigration. There isn’t a trace of irony in blaming Mayorkas for a border failure and then voting against a bill that would give him the necessary tools and the budget https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68172247

    The second was the vote on aid to Israel (alone) which Reps lost. There isn’t a trace of irony in pushing a bill that will fail (like it did in November) that will only delay aid to Israel because Reps destroyed the bi-partisan bill.

    Ronna McDaniel offered Trump her resignation as Republican National Committee chair. He put her in post in 2017 but reportedly fell out with her for a variety of reasons including allowing challengers for Republican leader TV debate time.

    It’s now all about avoiding prison, although there are useful sidelines too

    timba
    Free Member

    Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had anticipated the loss of the bipartisan bill and had released a new bill that stripped border control out, leaving aid for Ukraine and Israel (together).

    This combines the Trump-camp wish to kill border control changes and the Republican wish to aid Israel in the hope that they can get this through the US Senate with aid for Ukraine. That vote should take place this week https://www.npr.org/2024/02/07/1229785349/border-deal-ukraine-aid-senate

    The US Speaker, Mike Johnson (Rep), has been damaged in Rep eyes this week by allowing two Rep-friendly votes that failed and hasn’t commented on the latest bill, presumably until he finds out what Trump wants him to do

    timba
    Free Member

    “Ukraine’s president has sacked the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi.”

    Popular with the public, General Zaluzhnyi has had several disagreements with his President recently. Stuff happens, but this decision should have been made days ago instead of rumbling on as it has. General Zaluzhnyi will remain part of the team

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68244813

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    Tuckers 2 hour+ propaganda video is up on X.

    Summarised from what others have said, Putin mostly did his huge snore fest monologues and Ukraine belongs to Russia because of something that happened in the 9th century. Apparently.

    According to stats, very few that actually started watching actually finished watching it. The usual suspects are loving it though, I’ve just pointed out to some far right ‘Merican loon that they can expect a British invasion force to retake OUR land. 😆

    1
    hatter
    Full Member

    1. Screw Tucker

    2. I was keeping my peace on Zaluzhnyi being moved on as I was very conflicted, I assumed Zelensky had his reasons but it was hard to see what they were and without any real insight it was easy to start being cynical and see Zelensky trying to sideline a political rival possibly at the expense of battlefield competence.

    I mean, surely he’s a solid steel national hero, they’re going to put up statues of the lad!

    However, Joe Macdonald a UK volunter currently fighting with the Ukrainians in Kherson had an interesting perspective on this that I haven’t heard from the usual media sources, which made we think that maybe this could end up being the right move and that the views of Zaluzhnyi on the frontlines may not be quite as glowing as the ones we’re hearing from elsewhere.

    The bit about Zaluzhnyi starts 3 minutes in. Fruity language warning for sensitive souls

    Time will tell.

    timba
    Free Member

    Time will tell.

    Indeed. Ukraine has replaced one old Soviet with one who is 8-years older

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    The usual suspects are loving it though, I’ve just pointed out to some far right ‘Merican loon that they can expect a British invasion force to retake OUR land. 😆

    😆

    rickmeister
    Full Member

    Sarah Rainsford’s take on the *ucker Carlson piece…. Wheres Steve Rosenberg when you need him? He did a great job with Lukashenko.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68248740

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    Seems there is more than one apartment complex in Moscow currently on fire. Absolutely no idea if it is related to the war or just the typical ‘issues’ that Russians seem to face daily. But it seems odd that it is across a few buildings when it is sub zero outside…?
    https://x.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1755820074026344694?s=20

    hatter
    Full Member

    Most of the engineers and maintenance staff have been drafted so it really could be either.

    Multiple stories coming out about how Russia’s electrical grid, gas supply etc are creaking as the people who maintain them are gone.

    stumpy01
    Full Member

    I think a lot of Russian housing blocks have communal heating etc. from an article I was reading the other day about how cold it currently is there & the problems they have with communal heating systems as there is no money to maintain them.

    Maybe one of those communal heating systems has gone up & taken several apartment blocks with it?

    3
    timba
    Free Member

    The US Senate has made progress in aid to Ukraine.
    They voted 67:27 for the Cloture Motion, which caps the time to the final vote to 30 hours. This allows time to discuss amendments before the final vote, which can’t be delayed by time-wasting.

    A strong Senate final vote will influence the House of Representatives and hopefully US Speaker Johnson; we’ll see, I’m not holding my breath on the outcome of their vote

    chewkw
    Free Member

    Biden’s admin needs this war to stay in the Presidential race. No surprise there if they vote for more aid to Ukraine.

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    Fingers crossed.

    timba
    Free Member

    Russia reported that Ukraine had attacked Russian civilian transport ships in the SW Black Sea yesterday (Saturday), which I’m guessing is nearer to the Bosphorus Straits and Istanbul. Russia says that they fought the attack off and no footage has emerged today that I’ve seen to suggest otherwise

    I’m also guessing that the ships are carrying sanctioned goods and/or weapons

    tthew
    Full Member

    Here’s some more good news related to sanctions. Specifically the impact on civilian aircraft and the carriers that use them. IIRC, lots of these planes may have been stolen from their owners/lease companies.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/12/russias-planes-fall-apart-western-sanctions-airline-repairs/

    thols2
    Full Member

    I found this interesting.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    Interesting

    I suspect that he will be funding a lot of disinfo & pro-russian parties there

    5
    alpin
    Free Member

    Mongolian trolling

    3
    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    Mongolian trolling

    I like these Mongolians.

    3
    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    Putin also claimed Poland forced Germany to invade it in 1939 🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️. A somewhat self serving view of history 😵‍💫

    1
    timba
    Free Member

    Well, things are heating up within the US Congress.

    Senator JD Vance (Rep), who was endorsed by Donald Trump in 2022, wrote “The Republican Plot Against Donald Trump” and includes the paragraph, “But, of course, they have an insurance plan even if Trump pulls it off (successful Presidential bid). Though few have noticed, buried in the bill’s text is a kill switch for the next Trump presidency. The legislation explicitly requires funding for Ukraine well into the next presidential term. The Washington Post has already reported this provision was added to control Donald Trump.” https://www.theamericanconservative.com/how-congress-is-pursuing-endless-war-in-ukraine-and-trying-to-stop-a-trump-election/ (Apparently the WP noticed as well and told their readers, so a few people are aware)

    The article also mentions the possibility of a “discharge petition” in the House of Representatives if the Ukraine Aid bill seems to be well-received, which would weaken US Speaker Mike Johnson (Rep) further. The US Speaker can refuse a bill a vote, but a majority House can over-ride that decision and vote anyway, aka a discharge petition.
    He made a couple of questionable decisions last week and lost Republican confidence as a result and is less likely to shoot from the hip on this

    I’m still not holding my breath :)

    1
    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    Interesting short video (5½ min) from Peter Zeihan.  Despite the title, it only briefly covers the Carlton/Putin interview. It goes on to make some interesting comment on implementation (or not) of strategic changes based on combat lessons learned by both sides in the Ukraine war.  Also comments on ‘bandwith’ issues in US foreign policy which are impacting support for Ukraine.

    4
    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    Senate just passed the bill. Now the house…

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68284380

    2
    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    Good news!

    2
    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    “History settles every account,” Mr McConnell said in a statement following the vote. “And today, on the value of American leadership and strength, history will record that the Senate did not blink.”

    👍

    2
    somafunk
    Full Member

    Edit : nothing to see, it’s been posted above (Mongolia reference)

    1
    alpin
    Free Member

    A few parallels with Putin’s take on things and that of Israel, no?

    timba
    Free Member

    The numbers make interesting reading: 70:29 is a small swing towards the bill from 66:33 on the 12th. That’s including Reps being mobilised from 67:27 on the 11th. There are 100 Senators (2 per state) and Senator Lummis (Rep) didn’t vote on each occasion.

    I think the question now is how many Representatives the Rep Senators can turn to vote to fund Ukraine. 1/3 of the Senators are due for election in November along with the House of Representatives, I’m sure that many in both Houses will be looking to their voters around now and thinking about serious politics.

    Donald Trump is probably considering his next move carefully, he’s got to be more concerned with becoming President than Ukraine because his alternative is surely Prison

    hatter
    Full Member

    The MAGA faction are starting to gear up to replace Mitch McConnel as they see him as insufficiently headbangy. This will probably accelerate that process.

    I don’t like the guy and his profound cynicism over the last few decades is a big part of why US politics is as stuffed as it is, but McConnel is probably the most accomplished Republican political operator of his generation and hugely influential amongst the GOP’s big money donors.

    He’s clearly chosen a side on Ukraine, if the MAGA faithful come for him as a result then it will be a fascinating showdown.

    Praying that Jeffries has a cunning plan to get it past the yahoos in the house, he’s not daft but he’s no Pelosi, who for all her faults, was a master at this kind of thing.

    Northwind
    Full Member

    ****ing Mike Johnson, in an era of total pieces of shit he’s still somehow floating to the top.

    “The mandate of national security supplemental legislation was to secure America’s own border before sending additional foreign aid around the world. In the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters. America deserves better than the Senate’s status quo.”

    You mean like the bipartisan deal that did exactly that, which you torpedoed literally just days ago because you’d do anything rather than let Biden deliver on the border? Oh hi Rand Paul, demanding the exact same when you voted against that bill. Oh yeah and we see you over there too Lindsey Graham, who strongly supported support for Ukraine until Trump sent out a single misspelled tweet demanding it be a loan, and now says he will oppose all future funding unless it’s a loan.

    hatter
    Full Member

    ****ing Mike Johnson, in an era of total pieces of shit he’s still somehow floating to the top.

    He was the only person dumb enough to want to job after the treason caucus defenestrated McCarthy but still sufficiently boring to actually get into post without spooking the horses.. They’d have nominated MTG if they thought they could get away with it.

    For them he’s the perfect mix of looking sensible whilst actually being packed to the gills with horrendous opinions and beliefs.

    2
    thols2
    Full Member

    The Russian navy is apparently celebrating another new submarine joining the fleet.

    timba
    Free Member

    One less republican vote in the house against the Ukrainian aid package.

    He isn’t sworn in yet, the NY3 seat is still officially vacant. The US Speaker normally leads the swearing in after the biennial elections, but I’m not sure who controls it in this case.

    One report says that swearing-in could be as early as this week, but it might have to wait until the end of the month for the next recess.

    In any case this is a wake-up call to Representatives that the voters won’t put up with their nonsense and hopefully a “yea” vote is in the offing

    Just realised that I replied to the George!Santos! thread on this one, still it’s relevant…apols

    thols2
    Full Member

    One less republican vote in the house against the Ukrainian aid package.

    To be pedantic, it’s actually one more Democratic vote. AFAIK, Santos had already been booted from the house so Republicans had lost his vote. This just gives that vote to the Democrats, so a net gain of 2 votes. The Republican majority has fallen from 5 to 3, if 2 Republicans vote with Democrats, that’s a majority.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    these drones are going to change a lot about naval warfare

    4
    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    The Russian navy is being picked off one by one, Ukraine has reopened its sea grain exports. Russia has been denied the Black Sea. All this by a country without a navy. Outstanding!

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