interesting timing with Russia apparently all in on some zerg assaults elsewhere

Indeed these are interesting suggestions – let’s hope that it’s true, and let’s hope the big assaults are resisted.

The Romans would have executed a random 10% (the literal meaning of decimate) and offered the rest the chance to change sides.

bit late after a day away from the phone- this was used on large scale mutinous/cowardly/deserting legions/fighting units not enemies.

Vanquished foes were given the choice of join our army and after c30 years service we’ll make you a bona fuse Roman Citizen or death.

Was rarely used in practice and was more of a threat.  As with most Roman ideas/inventions it was borrowed from the Greeks- Al the Great (not the spoon wielding forumite) used it.

Just as we were all giving up on 2023 we may be about to see some pretty dramatic moves.

Winter less problematic down South too no?

Yes and no, it’s certainly warmer but the south of Ukraine is its arable heartland and contains some of the most fertile soil anywhere on Earth.

The downside of that soil is it when it rains it then turns into a the most nightmarish mud imaginable when you try and drive a tank over it.

Hence the widespread theory that Autumn would see the effective end of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

It appears the Ukrianians have other ideas.

The usual reliable accounts are still keeping schtum, which means either nothings happening or there’s something major afoot and they’ve been told to button it.

Right now, I have zero clue which of those is true.

The usual reliable accounts are still keeping schtum, which means either nothings happening or there’s something major afoot and they’ve been told to button it.

“Informational silence…” https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/15/ukraine-asks-for-informational-silence-as-fighting-for-kherson-oblast-continues/

Winter less problematic down South too no?

To expand on @hatter comments have a look at a satellite view. Google maps will do, centre on Kherson City and zoom out
Lots of fields, the largest desert in Ukraine and not too many viable roads. It’s a bit warmer than here ATM

The area immediately south of the river and South of Kherson city is sandy dunes created by the Dnipro River delta. Not sure I’d call it a desert as there’s plenty of water around but optically, yes.
Unlike most Southern Ukraine its not fertile at all but its still very soft and not ideal for moving armoured columns

largely pessimistic report here https://www.ft.com/content/87cf8824-a3b4-4eab-af7d-f88a71977415

there was an interesting podcast yesterday on guardian daily on Ukraine. In quick summary they said it was at a stalemate (which suited Russia) and that both sides struggle to launch any effective counter attack now due to the large use of drones making it near impossible.

The landscape has been changing since 6th June when Russia destroyed the Kakhovka Dam and the canals are running dry on semi-arrid land

The circular areas that you see in the fields on more zoomed-out satellite images are centre-pivot irrigation systems, but without the canals…

“The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine noted that the loss of water for hundreds of thousands of hectares could turn farmland in this area into “deserts” by 2024”

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151622/canals-in-ukraine-are-drying-up

The Dnipro bridgehead certainly looks promising at the moment. Success will depend on how well it can be supplied and supported, can Russia afford to ignore it?

A pessimistic, though probably realistic assessment of where we are. Nothing startling in it, just acknowledgement that we have pretty much reached a stalemate which neither side will find easy to break.  This is fairly up to date and includes the Dnipro bridgehead. It’s a useful look at areas where each side has the advantage and how that might change in the future. It feels like a fairly honest assessment to me – although pro Ukrainian it acknowledges Russian strengths and Ukrainian weaknesses as well as the opposite.

both sides struggle to launch any effective counter attack now due to the large use of drones making it near impossible.

I’d imagine that there are a lot of big, global players are frantically reaearching drone counter measures right now

The biggest weakness that Ukraine has is the willingness of other countries to keep supplying weapons and Russia’s greatest strength is having no limits on how many casualties they are willing to suffer. 

I’m not sure Ukraine’s allies are willing or even able to supply enough weapons to kill enough Russians to defeat Putin’s aims.

I hope that I’m wrong, that the supply of weapons won’t slow and that maybe Putin’s willingness to see any number of his people killed will be challenged 

I hope that I’m wrong, that the supply of weapons won’t slow and that maybe Putin’s willingness to see any number of his people killed will be challenged 

Putin needs to hold out for another year and take the chance that Trump gets back in (or the Republicans control the houses) and suddenly that supply of weapons could dry up.

Cue some cease fire talks and we’ll keep these bits we already control, thank you very much. Lick wounds for a couple of years to replenish ammo/army and start again…

Putin needs to hold out for another year and take the chance that Trump gets back in (or the Republicans control the houses) and suddenly that supply of weapons could dry up.

No need to wait for Trump.
All Russia needs to do is to put Ukraine in constant state of emergency.

@dakuan Thanks for that article.

I hate the term “stalemate”. General Zaluzhnyi used it in the military context of temporary, while his boss had to make it clear that Ukraine intends to fight on because politicians see “stalemate” as a draw that cannot be broken.

This adversely affects funding from other countries and pressure for ceasefire and negotiation that won’t be on Ukrainian terms. Rant over, great article that also clarifies the term 👍

@blokeuptheroad Thanks for that article as well. I still hate the term “stalemate” though 🙂

Germany has committed to doubling its military aid.

I’ve also heard that the F16’s will be older versions, so not the game changers we want them to be ☹️

I can’t remember which blocks the F-16s are supposed to be, but iirc they’re mostly (as per usual for aid in this conflict) planes that are scheduled to be replaced by the F-35. They’re still measurably more useful that any other aircraft in theatre though.

They’re still measurably more useful that any other aircraft in theatre though.

Are they better than what the Russian’s have? (probably a daft question in light of the last couple of years).
And how are they at avoiding anti-aircraft anything?

I’m an internet expert on this, so I stand to be corrected. But better radar, better warning systems, more user friendly, actually being integrated to western weapons systems are the main benefits. We’ll see whether that translates into fewer losses once they’re in use.

 Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk stated that the Russian military has concentrated over 800 missiles, including Kalibr and Onyx missiles, in occupied Crimea and intends to use all of them against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in winter 2023

looks like its going to get cold in ukraine this winter.

Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk stated that the Russian military has concentrated over 800 missiles, including Kalibr and Onyx missiles, in occupied Crimea and intends to use all of them against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in winter 2023

looks like its going to get cold in ukraine this winter.

Is that a ‘target rich environment’ for Ukraine various weapons?

If that’s true, (and I have no real doubt it is) has he not just admitted to a pre-planned war crime, – I think civilian infrastructure counts for this.

Not really admitted to – that’s the Ukrainian spokesperson (and it’s a she FWIW) warning / alerting the world to what they believe the Russians are going to do.
But yes, my understanding is that simply targeting civilian infrastructure is a war crime. However, there’s a caveat, that if that infrastructure is of military importance / supports military activity then it is fair game. So, a power plant that powers the factories making ordnance for example, is less clear cut. Railway line or bridge that is part of a supply line – absolutely.

Not really admitted to – that’s the Ukrainian spokesperson (and it’s a she FWIW) warning / alerting the world to what they believe the Russians are going to do.

Ah, total comprehension failure! Hopefully there will be plenty of evidence to get senior military commanders into war crimes tribunals without signed confessions in future years. Sadly I doubt Vladimir will be one of them.

I believe the F16s were described as something like mid cycle A and B versions? Though I may have misremembered 🤷‍♂️

Is that a ‘target rich environment’ for Ukraine various weapons?

It’s a bit too rich on occasions. Russia launched 31 Shahed-type drones a week ago with 3 missiles in the mix. Ukraine reports 19/31 Shaheds downed but doesn’t mention the missiles.

The Onyx anti-ship missiles are typically difficult to intercept because they can descend to 15m and “wavehop” to attack a ship, except that Russia is using them in a land-attack role https://www.kyivpost.com/post/19661

Ukrainian air defence (AD) was battling 38 Shaheds until 4am this morning and downed 29. No mention of missiles being launched, but at their peak last year Russia launched 60-70 missiles (not drones) at a time

The drones vary and either carry 15kg or 50kg to a range of at least 500miles, which is why we’re seeing more attacks inside Russia by Ukrainian drones and SF to destroy them at source (“western” weapons are supplied on the understanding that they won’t generally be used inside Russia’s internationally-recognised borders). They’ll overwhelm defences for cheap while the more powerful (100kg-500kg) cruise missiles are timed to arrive during the confusion. Russia has lost several of its Black Sea launch platforms but cruise missiles can be launched from land or air as well

Modern AD are excellent systems and highly modular so that an attack on a launcher doesn’t take the entire battery out, but reloading the larger ones is a job for a crane so they’re not the quickest to get back into action after firing.

The Kyiv Independent reports that NATO-members Bulgaria, Romania and Turkiye would form a joint task force to clear mines in the Black Sea under a proposed plan.

Turkiye has refused access to the Black Sea to warships not registered there and would exclude other NATO members to avoid an escalation https://kyivindependent.com/nato-members-nearing-deal-on-joint-black-sea-mine-clearing-force/

The FT reports that NATO-member Denmark could block Russian tankers from their Öresund strait. Maritime experts say that this may be in contravention of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and would need to be conducted under environmental laws. “Blocking commercial traffic in the Danish straits would come close to a declaration of war,” said Hans Peter Michaelsen, an independent defence analyst https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/denmark-could-block-russian-oil-tankers-reaching-markets-ft-2023-11-15/

On a lighter note, Ukrainian serviceman Ivan Malakhovsky has a good business repairing EVs regarded as written-off in the US and Canada. Another example of Ukraine’s ingenuity https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/11/the-reincarnation-of-totalled-teslas-in-ukraine/

Really interesting section from Denys Davydov’s channel at about 12 minutes in. Commentary on an interview with the leader of the ruling party in Ukraine. He was negotiating with the Russians during the early phase of the war.

“The main reason Ukraine chose to fight and not to sign the deals with Russia…was Boris Johnson who visited Kyiv and said Britain would support Ukraine and the US”.

Check the full context, it might not be exactly as reported…

The New Voice of Ukraine reported yesterday that “the Dnipro floodplain is effectively under Ukrainian control. And now the Russians are trying to prevent any further steps. They have essentially ceded the floodplain to us”

This will be significant if it allows Ukraine to establish solid logistics across the Dnipro, so far supplies are light kit that can be transported in small boats. Pushing Russian artillery back will open this supply route up hugely

https://english.nv.ua/nation/russians-have-nothing-similar-to-surovikin-line-on-left-bank-50371231.html

Ukraine has declared symmetrical drone warfare on Russian cities, launching 35 drones at military targets

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-responds-in-kind-with-35-drone-counterattack-on-russian-strategic-facilities-50371397.html

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-s-defense-intelligence-strikes-deep-into-russia-in-unprecedented-drone-attack-50371366.html

Some proper winter weather has also moved in – frozen ground and snow….

Some proper winter weather has also moved in – frozen ground and snow….

The weather is definitely fickle, today is a public holiday on Crimea due to a storm with 90mph winds that has cut power to 25% of residents. No power, no water

Winds of that speed will damage comms kit, dishes, aerials, etc. No radar…

Waves have flooded coastal defences too. I wonder how the floating Kerch bridge defences have fared?

Some proper winter weather has also moved in – frozen ground and snow….

The Guardian reports that “Russia is having to pull air defence systems out of Kaliningrad, its external province on the Baltic Sea, to replace the ones it has lost in the Ukraine war, according to an intelligence update from the UK’s Ministry of Defence. “This follows an uptick in losses of SA-21 air defence systems in Russian-occupied Ukraine in late October 2023.””
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/27/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-642

Kaliningrad isn’t in danger from Ukrainian missiles, but it’ll be interesting if Russia were to redeploy AD systems to Russian cities. Russian forces in Ukraine are already short while Ukrainian drone attacks will cause consternation in an election year

Sanctions-busting by Russia is slowing as 3 Greek shipping companies won’t be transporting their oil. The US has also clamped down more recently on companies in Turkiye and the UAE.
Anybody trading through the US-banking system, i.e. $, is a target https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/greek-shippers-exit-russian-oil-trade-us-tightens-price-cap-scrutiny-2023-11-23/