There’s also an upcoming election in Poland iirc, so this if for his internal audience in a push for re-election as well.

There’s a lot of strain between nations and it’s in the interests of Russia to promote that.

Destroyed port infrastructure forces Ukraine to use EU countries to export their grain.

Romania has begun to invest heavily in their port at Constanta to deal with Ukrainian grain which can arrive by barge on the Danube, rail or road and onto the Black Sea. Problem sorted within a few months

Poland had a display of might last week an old school military parade.

They have just spent $$$$$ on Apache attack copters.  Walking away from Ukraine would be daft it won’t be Putin that drives into Poland his lap dog will be ordered to do it via any troops that may still be in Wagner camps.

Id imagine being Poland is a juggling hot potato political nightmare right now. Huge refugee numbers war just over the road and a struggle with financial outlays.

Poland decided that it made sense to support Ukraine massively and keep Russia at arm’s length.

To achieve that they dug into active materiel rather than merely reserves like most other nations. They’ve reached a notional limit and need to restock now.

Belarus has been pushing Iraqi and Afghan migrants into Lithuania and now Poland in what’s described as a hybrid campaign to destabilise Europe https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/18/russia-belarus-poland-lithuiania-migrants-eu-weapon/

This has continued into 2022, when Poland built a massive border fence at great expense, and 2023

Oh dear, those poor Russians mustn’t be getting any sleep with all these things blowing up around them.

/1. Explosions in Sevastopol Bay Area pic.twitter.com/NU12011s9w

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 22, 2023

Very satisfying

All those drone attacks on the Russian radar seems to be paying off

NBC reporting Biden will give Ukraine a limited number of ATACMS…………

Over to you Germany…

headquartsers just struck in Sevastopol

Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters caved in and still burning post Ukrainian Storm Shadow ALCM strike earlier today. pic.twitter.com/ZY60ORWxoy

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 22, 2023

is the 2nd Black Sea fleet command post to be hit in 2 days

Radio Svoboda released satellite pictures of the Russian command post of the Black Sea Fleet in Russian-occupied Crimea.

The south wing of the building has been completely obliterated.

Coordinates:

44°42'53"N 33°42'15"E

Source: https://t.co/9p8uKcP6r9#Ukraine #Crimea pic.twitter.com/zZZip6D2Ts

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) September 21, 2023

wow they really are cranking up the pressure on crimea, what is russias counter going to be?  more missles and drones on the ports…. or are they going to actually sink one of those grain ships.  Almost like ukraine is baiting them to do so, and then face even more international condemnation.

<p style=”text-align: left;”>lots of very unsubstantiated rumours</p>

OMG 👀👀👀

⚡ "The commander of the Russian fleet was killed. A missile hit his office. Information needs confirmation", – Crimean Wind

— MAKS 23 👀🇺🇦 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) September 22, 2023

@DT78 – I don’t think it’s about playing games and ‘ramping up’.

I think it’s genuine and well executed tactics taking out not only the supply lines but any command and control, air and sea defense, fuel supplies etc…

Usual caveats, not yet confirmed etc. but lots of claims on Twitter that the Admiral in charge of Russia’s Black Sea fleet was killed in today’s attack on Sevastopol.  This is is a man who has overseen months of cruise missile attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine. So if the claims are true, whilst not celebrating his (or anyone’s) demise, I won’t lose too much sleep over it.

https://x.com/berlin_bridge/status/1705282007398252841?s=20

defense

Have a word.

4 missiles hit the naval HQ

Slowed down and zoomed-in footage of the Ukrainian Storm Shadow/SCALP ALCM slamming into (and through) the roof of the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters. pic.twitter.com/c8mas1OzAg

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 22, 2023

The dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed. But it is long ranges and precision guided.https://t.co/CYVvrzURvS

— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) September 22, 2023

Romanchuk is in charge of Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia where the main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is occurring. This suggests that it wasn’t just a strike on the Black Sea Fleet HQ, but timed to target key senior leaders during a meeting. https://t.co/VKN3vhSyJv

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 22, 2023

I thought there was just one soldier missing?

seems Azerbaijan is also settling some scores

https://www.rferl.org/a/top-russia-navy-officer-killed-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh/32602846.html

I think it’s genuine and well executed tactics taking out not only the supply lines but any command and control, air and sea defense, fuel supplies etc…

Absolutely. Crimea and its forces have many facets other than the Black Sea Fleet (BSF).

Crimea-based aircraft and shipping launch missiles. The attacks on Crimea will slow attacks on Ukrainian civilians and critical infrastructure this winter.

BSF has land-based forces operating further north on the front-line and it maintains logistics routes from Russia into southern Ukraine

The threat to world grain supplies and the ability to foment trouble between (and within) the EU and Ukraine over exports has been proven over the last year and has developed this month with Poland, Slovakia and Hungary making their own import rules in defiance of the EU Trade Commission. Opening new routes into the Black Sea through Romania minimises export problems while simultaneously attacking BSF assets undermines Russia’s blockade of Black Sea grain shipping and makes the trade more viable for insurers

Russia now has a choice; leave Crimea or divert frontline resources to its defence

And on the Polish statement from PM Mateusz Morwiecki on the 21st,

(President) “Duda clarified Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morwiecki’s September 21 statement that Poland would no longer transfer weapons to Ukraine and explained that Poland would continue to fulfill weapons supplies agreements with Ukraine but would not transfer new weapons that Poland purchases for its own military.[19] Duda also stated that the potential conflict between the two countries regarding the export of Ukrainian grain along European land routes does not “significantly affect” the two countries’ relationship.” https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-22-2023

So, if the tankies are to be believed, we have to be really careful to not provoke Russia or they might unleash WW3, but then Russia just accepts a lame apology when their peacekeepers get killed. Does anyone take Russian threats seriously anymore?

The group said Kovgan was killed when Azerbaijani forces opened fire at a vehicle transporting Russian peacekeepers. The 52-year-old had been appointed to the post of deputy commander of the peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh two months earlier.

The Kremlin said on September 21 that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev had a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which he offered his apologies and expressed condolences over the deaths of Russian military personnel during what Baku called “an anti-terrorist operation” in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russia is keen to keep Azerbaijan onside. Neither Russia nor Iran want Azerbaijan to cede to EU and Israeli influence

Isw report makes interesting reading today,

Has it been confirmed if any senior offices were injuries in the svesatapol strike a crew days ago?  I haven’t see anything as of yet

As Russian Air Force officers inspected a force-landed Ukrainian explosive UAV at Khalino airfield near Russia's Kursk on Sep 24, its charge detonated, causing numerous casualties among the military aviators, as per a Ukrainian intel source.https://t.co/NtXpVY9WaW

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 25, 2023

Has it been confirmed if any senior offices were injuries in the svesatapol strike a crew days ago? I haven’t see anything as of yet

Not confirmation as such. A Ukrainian source, but claims Black Sea Fleet commander and 34 other officers killed and 105 wounded.

Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet admiral Viktor Sokolov died in the missile strike on the Fleet's headquarters, along with 34 more officers. 105 more were wounded. The building is not suitable for restoration – Special Operations Forces of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/2EQHl7WxJy

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 25, 2023

Osh, that’s gotta sting.

Usually I try and show a bit more decorum when discussing those who have died but Admiral Sokolov will have personally and knowingly signed off on dozens of cruise missile strikes on entirely civilian targets in Ukraine purely to sow terror and pain amongst non-combatants so… stuff him.

There are also rumblings today that the Ukrainians have managed to breach another line of Russia defenses near Verbove amongst reports that whilst the defensive works themselves remain formidable the Russians are running out of troops available locally to man them.

As always, fog of war and it could all be reversed by tomorrow morning, but progress continues to be made, I just hope the tipping point is reached soon.

Thats a huge strike if they really did cause that many deaths, tbh the ‘one missing’ line from Russia seemed clearly bs.

ISW talk about how the Russians aren’t retreating to the second line of defence, but choosing to counter attack the Ukrainian breakthroughs to try to not loose ground as the do not want to be seen as loosing territory and buying time.  Claimed it is costing alot of Russian (and presumably Ukrainian) lives.  Read ukr have armoured vehicles operating beyond the first line now which means they are through the minefields.  Or at least the primary ones.  Feels like its a matter of time before ukr make a proper breakthrough, unless the time Russia is buying with lives is to lay even more mines….

As I see it, the problem with all the layers of fixed defence is that it makes armour slow down, which makes it vulnerable to the saturation of artillery and dug in anti tank teams.

 tbh the ‘one missing’ line from Russia seemed clearly bs.

I think what that means is that they have found at least a toenail of all of the others. Technically they aren’t missing they are just not quite in one place anymore.

Yes, which is why progress has been slow as Ukraine seems to actually care about the lives of it’s soldiers and is not just throwing people into the grinder. That and the fact they don’t have the luxury of air superiority like NATO would have.

ISW talk about how the Russians aren’t retreating to the second line of defence, but choosing to counter attack the Ukrainian breakthroughs to try to not loose ground

If this is true then it’s weirdly good news, the best tactic for Russia right now would be to hunker down in their fortified positions and bleed the attacking Ukrainians white, maximising defenders’ advantage, just as the Ukrainians themselves did in Bahkmut.

If they’re being ordered out into the open to counterattack the casualties will be horrendous and make it harder for Russia to hold them for the next inevitable push and makes a real collapse of the line that bit more likely in future.

This all leans into my feeling that this situation will look utterly intractable and bogged down until suddenly things start moving very quickly.

Seems Ukrainian claims of the demise of the Black Sea fleet commander may have been premature.

🔊 UPDATE: Russia’s Black Sea commander appeared on video a day after Ukraine said it killed him. For more go to Reuters World News daily podcast https://t.co/i1gzbIK6Vp pic.twitter.com/f3UXjw1bWV

— Reuters (@Reuters) September 26, 2023

Seems Ukrainian claims of the demise of the Black Sea fleet commander may have been premature.

He blinked, so it’s definitely real.

IANAGeneralUnderAQuasiMilitaryDictatorship, but I would have assumed he might be invited to explain how/ why his headquarters had just been blown up. But then my military knowledge is mostly limited to a mix of history lessons and the cut scenes from Red alert.

Again, IANAGUAQMD so what do I know.

Considering how much of an easy propaganda coup it would been for Russia to just wheel him out a few days ago I remain highly suspicious that he’s only now just surfaced and in such an easily spoofed manner.

Russian could of course just be being really bad at comms but it strongly suggests that even if he is still on this earth he’s in a pretty sorry state.

Guess they’re trying to buy time whilst they try and work out how the hell Ukrainian military intelligence knew the exact time and location of that meeting, an adversary with that kind of intel and access to a container full of Storm Shadows can inflict all sorts of pain on your command structures.

I read on kyiv post they claim ukraine paid some unhappy russian officers for the information which lead to the strike.  whether that’s further psyops to further russian paranoia I don’t know

I also see that Ukraine are going big on winding up about a new underwater drone with 200kg warhead designed for bridges a bridge.

It’s either true, and Kerch may be going big badaboom soon…
…or it’s great misinformation that will have Russia installing more dolphins, nets, sensors and very paranoid bridge guards…

In war, the first casualty is the truth

Etc

Rumours on Twitter that the Ukrainians have gone all in south of Robotyne……….

Seems like they’ll have ATACMS with a cluster warhead very soon, amongst other things I’d have thought that’s ideal for obliterating a lot of Russian aircraft parked up in airfields on occupied territory (especially KA-52’s). We’ll soon see how effective covering them in tires is…

I had not realised how / what these ATACM things are.
The cluster warhead covers 1km2 with 950 explosive rounds. Basically clearing the 1km2.

By heck.

There’s a few warhead options for ATACMS, either a big warhead for hardened targets, or the cluster option for area attack on targets in the open.

For simplicity, the ATACMS is fired from the HIMARS platform, with the 6 rocket cassette replaced by 1 big one. Much greater range and a bigger warhead. The missile can manoeuvre too.