Viewing 40 posts - 12,241 through 12,280 (of 13,741 total)
  • Ukraine
  • gofasterstripes
    Free Member

    Nice to see a couple of informative and thoughtful posts

    timba
    Free Member

    The recent increase in oil prices is also a concern and is caused largely by OPEC+ (of which Russia is a member) reducing oil production by the largest amount since 2020 when C19 hit.
    During C19 the price fell to below $25 per barrel; it rose to over $100 in the weeks leading up to the invasion of Ukraine, ironically rewarding Russia with increasing oil revenues, as buyers scrambled to get stocks. The price has since fallen to $90
    The decision taken by OPEC+ to put the brakes on the price drop is IMHO a business decision because at the end of the year EU oil imports from Russia will almost completely stop (a handful of countries have exemptions) and Russia will sell to the highest bidder, undercutting OPEC+ pricing.
    There’s also the possibility that cynical non-OPEC 3rd parties will buy cheap Russian oil and sell it to equally cynical countries bound by western sanctions

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Nice to see a couple of informative and thoughtful posts

    Yep, some well though out posts instead of whattaboutery/insinuations or just flat out trolling is appreciated.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Substack blog by US Historian Timothy Snyder who specialises in Central and Eastern European modern history.

    https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war

    Snyder has a record of criticism of both Putin and Trump. Even if he does allow some form of bias in, he still knows far more on this than anyone here.

    War is ultimately about politics. That Ukraine is winning on the battlefield matters because Ukraine is exerting pressure on Russian politics. Tyrants such as Putin exert a certain fascination, because they give the impression that they can do what they like. This is not true, of course; and their regimes are deceptively brittle. The war ends when Ukrainian military victories alter Russian political realities, a process which I believe has begun.

    Right now, though, we have a certain difficulty seeing how Ukraine gets to victory, even as the Ukrainians advance. This is because many of our imaginations are trapped by a single and rather unlikely variant of how the war ends: with a nuclear detonation. I think we are drawn to this scenario, in part, because we seem to lack other variants, and it feels like an ending.

    Using the mushroom cloud for narrative closure, though, generates anxiety and hinders clear thinking. Focusing on that scenario rather than on the more probable ones prevents us from seeing what is actually happening, and from preparing for the more likely possible futures. Indeed, we should never lose sight of how much a Ukrainian victory will improve the world we live in.

    That /\/\ last sentence, whether you agree with anything else in the quote or not, stands out for me.

    As I’ll explain in a moment, giving in to nuclear blackmail won’t end the conventional war in Ukraine. It would, however, make future nuclear war much more likely. Making concessions to a nuclear blackmailer teachers him that this sort of threat will get him what he wants, which guarantees further crisis scenarios down the line. It teaches other dictators, future potential blackmailers, that all they need is a nuclear weapon and some bluster to get what they want, which means more nuclear confrontations. It tends to convince everyone that the only way to defend themselves is to build nuclear weapons, which means global nuclear proliferation.

    Sandwich
    Full Member

    Rocket Rons obviously.

    Some of us are addressing the important issues! 🙂

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    Rocket Rons obviously.

    I’m disappointed that Fire XC’s are not suggested…

    lerk
    Free Member

    More importantly, which is louder?

    > A Tactical Nuclear Weapon

    Or

    > A home brew tubeless tyre popping off the rim and spraying sealant all over the workshop

    And which one makes you more anxious?

    shermer75
    Free Member

    Substack blog by US Historian Timothy Snyder who specialises in Central and Eastern European modern history

    Excellent stuff, thanks for posting!

    piemonster
    Full Member

    There’s a rumour doing the rounds that one of Prigozhin’s (Wagner Group Oligarch) media bloggers has just been arrested in Moscow. Aleksey Slobodenyuk.

    Needs some verification that one to be believable

    kimbers
    Full Member

    There’s a rumour doing the rounds that one of Prigozhin’s (Wagner Group Oligarch) media bloggers has just been arrested in Moscow. Aleksey Slobodenyuk

    Interesting, Prigozhin & Khadyrov have been openly criticizing the failures of the special military operation 🙄 & demanding escalation
    Maybe Putin is sending a signal not to overstep the mark

    Edit
    ISW update confirms that bloggers have been arrested and that Khadyrov has been promoted! And that Putin lining up Shoigu to take the fall

    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-5

    Chest_Rockwell
    Free Member

    ^^^  there is a video purportedly showing this arrest.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1577780691626037248

    Seems to be some of power struggle going on with Prigozhin and Shoigu,  according to reports.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    That Yale Professor I linked to has a lecture on YT from 2014 looking at Ukraine, its 1hr, Ive not watched it but hopefully will.

    Just sharing in case its of interest to anyone.

    Ukraine: From Propaganda to Reality

    Since February, the world’s eyes have been on Ukraine as Ukrainians rebelled against rising authoritarianism in their own country and were met in return with a Russian invasion of Ukraine’s southern and eastern provinces. Yale University’s Timothy Snyder is the world’s leading historian of Eastern Europe. His series of articles in the New York Review of Books has been hailed as the definitive analysis of this crisis. Join him as he clarifies the stakes.

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    @piemonster

    Just watched that video you posted of the Yale Professor and it was utterly engrossing.

    Anyone with an hour free and an interest in Ukraine and how it’s history and current fight back effects us all should definitely watch it.👍

    shermer75
    Free Member

    Speaking of videos I’ve recently watched this one- very clear minded and informative, well worth a watch:

    doris5000
    Full Member

    I came here to post that Snyder article too! I think thols2 has already alluded to the prospect of Russian warlords with private armies vying for power (IE Prigozhin and Kadyrov) – a daunting thought. But plausible.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Ukraine: From Propaganda to Reality

    Just watched that video you posted of the Yale Professor and it was utterly engrossing.

    Anyone with an hour free and an interest in Ukraine and how it’s history and current fight back effects us all should definitely watch it.👍

    Seconded.
    Brings a hell of a lot of stuff together, but still easy to follow.
    Great summary.
    Everyone should listen to it.

    dooosuk
    Free Member

    Now I’m only really following the conflict from the posts on here, but the ISW link above had this map which is the first I’ve seen showing a Ukrainian Partisan Warfare area around Melitopol.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Just watched that video you posted of the Yale Professor and it was utterly engrossing.

    Anyone with an hour free and an interest in Ukraine and how it’s history and current fight back effects us all should definitely watch it.

    Agreed, an hour well spent now ive listened to it

    kelvin
    Full Member

    So, you posted it before listening to it yourself… 🤣 …got lucky! An hour of it on in the background was well spent… better than anything on the radio this morning I’m sure. Thanks.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Absolute chancer me 😉

    In what little defence i can muster i did say

    Ive not watched it but hopefully will.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Luckily I didn’t take enough care reading your post, and just clicked play. 😉

    Strongly suggest everyone else listens to it.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    According to the Bild the gold teeth in a box thing is false Ukrainian propaganda

    https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/ukraine-verbreitete-das-foto-stammen-die-goldzaehne-wirklich-von-folter-opfern-81529562.bild.html

    spawnofyorkshire
    Full Member

    Could very well be Ukrainian propaganda or misrepresentation, but then I also don’t trust die Bild at all. It’s an awful shitrag tabloid

    alwillis
    Full Member

    Video bookmarked for later thanks.

    Snyder’s book bloodlands is also excellent if anyone wants a more in depth read of the history. Hard going at times, but covers everything to the east of Germany from 1939 to the 1950s and gives context to the comments above about Poles etc having a deep rooted dislike of Russia.

    Edited to add that this thread has been really good for drawing together sources like the blog and video above. Thanks to those who have contributed.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Could very well be Ukrainian propaganda or misrepresentation, but then I also don’t trust die Bild at all. It’s an awful shitrag tabloid

    Literally just read that elsewhere, is it an equivalent of the Express?

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Snyder’s book bloodlands is also excellent if anyone wants a more in depth read of the history.

    He mentions that in passing in the video. It’s on my list of books to read now.

    spawnofyorkshire
    Full Member

    Literally just read that elsewhere, is it an equivalent of the Express?

    Express x The Sun x Daily Fail – It’s sensationalist and has been caught out telling fibs in the past.
    Claims non-partisanship but plays favourites
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/16/bild-zeitung-tabloid-julian-reichelt-angela-merkel-germany

    EDIT: From the wiki page
    Punk rock band Die Ärzte summarized Bild’s content as “fear, hate, tits and the weather report” (Aus Angst, Hass, Titten und dem Wetterbericht)

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    jp-t853
    Full Member

    The Yale Professor video was very interesting although I thought he was talking about British politics from 2010 from about 48 mins onwards.

    DT78
    Free Member

    Some interesting articles on yahoo relating to some of the convo up there –

    A Kremlin-installed leader has suggested Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister and one of Vladimir Putin’s closest allies, should shoot himself because of failures in the Ukraine conflict.

    Kirill Stremouso, deputy head of the annexed Kherson region, poured scorn on Moscow’s generals in a highly rare public rebuke of its top brass.

    In a four-minute video message, he said: “Indeed, many say: if they were a defence minister who had allowed such a state of affairs, they could, as officers, have shot themselves.

    Also, US saying they believe ukraine authorised that car bomb
    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/ukrainians-behind-car-bombing-killed-050000328.html

    No idea as to validity of yahoo as a news source

    kelvin
    Full Member

    he was talking about British politics from 2010 from about 48 mins onwards

    Politics across the whole of Europe, and the USA.

    somafunk
    Full Member

    That Yale Professor I linked to has a lecture on YT from 2014 looking at Ukraine, its 1hr, Ive not watched it but hopefully will.

    Just sharing in case its of interest to anyone.

    Watching it now, thanks for posting

    piemonster
    Full Member

    No idea as to validity of yahoo as a news source

    Regarding the car bombing. Yahoo are just recycling it.

    Its being reported via quite a few outlets

    inkster
    Free Member

    That Yale professor was a good watch.

    His concept of “applied post modernism” rather sums up the world of Brexit and Trump that we have been living in during the 8 years since that talk was given.

    somafunk
    Full Member

    I’ve started on his “The making of modern Ukraine” lecture series, there’s 9 so far and I’m onto #2,

    nickc
    Full Member

    Watched that lecture, @piemonster, very interesting, thanks for finding and posting it.

    singletrackmind
    Full Member

    If the UAF can clear Kherson, Donetsk and Lushachank in the next week to 10 days then its pretty much game over.
    Hold positions to solidify gains, root out RU remainers and then re arm, re group and re sup.
    Then it’s a dash for the border or coastline. In my mind its 50 odd miles at the nearest point. Sever all potential road links to stop the rusks getting food, ammo etc.
    Hopefully then whatever is left of the Russian army will capitulate to save themselves. Local commanders will agree terms and the hardware gets assimulted into the uaf arsenal.
    Cant see it not happening, just might have to wait till spring, or if its a hard winter then the weather will play a part. Frozen soldiers cant fire back.

    I worry for the mental health of the troops. Imagine being a Baker, lorry driver, teacher etc then suddenly you are seeing people dead or dieing on a daily basis, or bits of people blown apart by mines of shelling. Doesn’t matter which side they were on. Still harrowing to see, a stump of a leg in a boot, or just an arm with the torso nowhere to be seen.

    Be with them forever

    bentandbroken
    Full Member

    @piemonster – Can you share where you got the Bias Distribution chart from? That’s something I would be keen to read a bit more about

    gofasterstripes
    Free Member

    Isn’t that from ground news?

    piemonster
    Full Member

    That is indeed from Ground News. It seems pretty good for what it cost, but I could easily be missing some major flaws.

Viewing 40 posts - 12,241 through 12,280 (of 13,741 total)

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