Viewing 40 posts - 9,961 through 10,000 (of 13,649 total)
  • Ukraine
  • futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    This article is a good illustration of the effect of sanctions.

    Interesting- and yet according to Simon Jenkins of the Guardian, Western sanctions are ineffective

    DrJ
    Full Member

    They do, but only in the short term.

    Yeah, we’ll be fine in a decade or so when those new nuclear stations that Johnson promised us kick in (alongside the new hospitals). Meanwhile the only short(ish) term alternative, onshore wind, is notably absent from the planning.

    molgrips
    Full Member

    It’ll be interesting to learn about what the supposedly competent German government ends up being able to do about this and how Germans respond.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Yeah, we’ll be fine in a decade or so when those new nuclear stations that Johnson promised us kick in (alongside the new hospitals). Meanwhile the only short(ish) term alternative, onshore wind, is notably absent from the planning.

    Its less what ‘we’ do that matters in this case (I think anyway) and more what the EU does.

    Theyve been chucking some big numbers around (210 billion euro iirc), and some bold targets to reduce Russian imports.

    Exactly how realistic it is I dont know. It could be as much a political statement to Putin for all I can tell.

    The official press release suggests energy efficiency being the easiest and quickest option https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_3131

    Again, if its being honest, I see that as a rare good thing.

    timba
    Free Member

    Yeah, we’ll be fine in a decade or so when those new nuclear stations that Johnson promised us kick in

    Power/energy/climate-change has been way more complicated than it needs to be. Politicians world-wide needed to talk less about it and just get on with it.
    Tony Blair’s government kicked the nuclear can down the road. In 2008 the SNP under Alex Salmond said no new nuclear for Scotland.
    David Cameron’s government got contracts signed in 2011 as one of their first jobs, unfortunately we’d lost our nuclear expertise by then and it’s meant negotiations with French and Chinese companies
    The EU decided that nuclear and gas were green options before the invasion of Ukraine and agreed the detail last month. Ignoring construction, nuclear is CO2-free but gas!?
    Nuclear doesn’t sit easily with me because of disposal problems, but we don’t have many options just now. Politicians!

    Greybeard
    Full Member

    Nuclear doesn’t sit easily with me because of disposal problems

    Nuclear waste disposal is a political problem not an engineering one. After a few 100 years the total radioactivity in the waste is less than in the original Uranium before it was dug up. If it’s packaged (encapsulated or vitrified) and underground then even if things go wrong the actual hazard to the public from radioactivity would be way less than lots of other pollution that’s considered acceptable. The potentially unsafe thing is leaving it in surface stores (vulnerable to war) because the green lobby has hyped up the hazards and blocked underground disposal.

    Greybeard
    Full Member

    The official press release suggests energy efficiency being the easiest and quickest option https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_3131

    Again, if its being honest, I see that as a rare good thing.

    Agreed. I wonder when we’ll see a UK policy like that?

    Northwind
    Full Member

    And Hinkley’s been such a series of bad decisions that it’s sucked up the budget and is going to further sour public and political will for more nucler. Funny that most of the modern nuclear disasters are financial ones.

    timba
    Free Member

    Agreed. I wonder when we’ll see a UK policy like that?

    Unfortunately it’s taken a war to point out the error of their ways, one that our politicians have the luxury of saying, “We only get 6% from Russia”. The population in the meantime have the luxury of paying for it
    UK buildings just don’t lend themselves to efficiency and insulation which needs to change. An extra 6″ of loft insulation paid for out of a green levy doesn’t do it, we should have been designing efficiency in since the 1960s and updating the Building Regs as techniques improved to include space for ground source heat, etc

    timba
    Free Member

    Nuclear waste disposal is a political problem not an engineering one

    Didn’t know that, thanks

    timba
    Free Member

    Not that much optimistic admittedly

    European businesses started converting to run coal months ago, Michelin being one

    reluctantjumper
    Full Member

    Nuclear waste disposal is a political problem not an engineering one

    Didn’t know that, thanks

    As usual Tom Scott has made a video about it:

    timba
    Free Member

    Ironically low-river levels in Germany and France are causing power generation problems. In Germany they can’t move enough coal on the Rhine for Uniper’s Staudinger coal power plant and in France they can’t get enough water to sufficiently cool their plants on the Rhone and Garonne leading to reduced outputs

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    Maybe start an energy crisis thread 🤷‍♂️

    piemonster
    Full Member

    ISW assessment on the change of initiative shifting to Ukraine

    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-4

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Theres a piece in the Guardian alleging a pattern of operations by the Ukrainian military putting civilians at risk.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/04/ukraine-civilians-army-bases-amnesty-russia-war

    There is also a counter from the national head of Amnesty in Ukraine criticising the report.

    However, the head of Amnesty Ukraine’s office, Oksana Pokalchuk, wrote on Facebook that her operation disagreed with the report. She said they were cut out of the pre-publication process when they complained that the report was based on incomplete evidence compiled by foreign colleagues.

    It does have a whiff of “I can be righteous as im thousands of miles away and not at war” to it. Maybe thats just the way the Guardian are presenting it and im reading it.

    doris5000
    Full Member

    It does have a whiff of “I can be righteous as im thousands of miles away and not at war” to it. Maybe thats just the way the Guardian are presenting it and im reading it.

    No, that’s basically what Amnesty said in their statement. An odd thing to say, considering their silence on e.g. Russia bombing shelters full of kids, train stations full of evacuees, and executing and torturing innocent civilians in the towns and villages they have conquered.

    seosamh77
    Free Member

    General points – the RF Armed Forces have made their “move”, the Armed Forces of Ukraine – still not. The collapse of the enemy’s defense near Donetsk did not happen for more than a week of the offensive. And it will be possible to talk about it only after the fall of Avdiivka (which has not yet been included and which is also far from being blocked). In the conditions of an acute shortage of manpower in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the LDNR, the adopted tactics of “squeezing out” with massive artillery support is the only possible and relatively effective one, since it allows “saving losses.” But the offensive near Donetsk does not lead us out of the strategic impasse in which our front is after the failure of the “NOR” and the failure to defeat the enemy during the second (“concrete”) stage of the operation, even with the most successful development of events.
    I expect an early attempt to launch an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Kherson or Zaporozhye fronts, or on both at the same time.

    That Strelkov guy suggesting a Ukrainian offensive may be imminent. Still not sure what to make of this guy whether is just posting dis-information or is straight up just disgruntled with the Russian actions.

    Also just posted this.

    About an hour ago, the Armed Forces of Ukraine again launched a missile attack on the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson. The bridge is closed to traffic.

    Hopefully something materialises.

    dissonance
    Full Member

    An odd thing to say, considering their silence on e.g

    They have several reports around Russian attacks on civilians in Ukraine. Its just those havent had the press.

    Greybeard
    Full Member

    That Strelkov guy

    The quote is from 4chan? I don’t know where is affiliation lies but he describes Ukraine as “the enemy” so I assume he’s supporting Russia.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    He is allegedly a former DNR commander turn mil blogger and is openly pro Russian

    At the same time, occasionally openly critical of Russia, but only really of military issues.

    Looks like a variant if this https://wartranslated.com/igor-girkin-ukraine-frontline-update-on-5-august-from-the-russian-side/

    seosamh77
    Free Member

    Greybeard
    Free Member
    That Strelkov guy

    The quote is from 4chan?

    Directly from his telegram channel. Just translated it directly and posted it here.

    piemonster
    Free Member
    He is allegedly a former DNR commander turn mil blogger and is openly pro Russian

    At the same time, occasionally openly critical of Russia, but only really of military issues.

    Looks like a variant if this https://wartranslated.com/igor-girkin-ukraine-frontline-update-on-5-august-from-the-russian-side/

    Yeah he’s absolutely pro-Russian, extreme right end of the Russian spectrum. I just often wonder why he’s allowed to be so openly critical, he seems to hate Shoigu with a passion, calls him the Plywood Marshall all the time. He wants a full war and mobilisation declared on Ukraine. That ISW quite often take him at face value in their assessments.

    thols2
    Free Member

    Amnesty really screwed the dog with their report. Trying to argue nuance in the face of Russian trolls is unbelievably stupid.

    timba
    Free Member

    There’s a political exchange going on around who shelled who close to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant; only six reactors to worry about 🙁
    The front line stretches roughly from here to Kherson and Russia is heavily reinforcing the south using forces from the Donbas and from Russia into Crimea
    After all of the activity on bridges Russia is clearly anticipating a big counter-attack

    thols2
    Free Member

    Interesting interview with a Russian sociologist.

    https://jacobin.com/2022/07/russia-ukraine-war-media-public-apolitical-vladimir-putin

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Cheers for posting that, gives the most believable case for why Russia has kept this a “special” and the risks of general mobilization.

    A largely apathetic population at present might not be tomorrow.

    This was also an interesting take and somewhat a contrary to blaming the west.

    That’s another common, but understandable mistake in Western analysis: thinking that the war is rooted in geopolitics. I think that international politics played a very secondary role, if any, in the decision. It was mostly preconditioned by the domestic situation, which explains why it happened so suddenly and failed so miserably. It was not prepared, there was no diplomacy behind it, because it was not about foreign policy, it was about domestic policies.

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    It also shows the lie perpetrated by Guardian journalist Jenkins, that Putin has increased his stranglehold on the Russian population.

    Interesting read, 👍

    thols2
    Free Member

    So, China and Russia might not be the besties that tankies imagine.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/05/europe/russian-hypersonic-missile-scientist-arrest-treason-hnk-intl/index.html

    Kolker was detained on state treason charges for allegedly collaborating with China’s security services, Reuters reported.

    Kolker, who was diagnosed with stage four cancer, died while being transferred from the pre-trial detention center.

    inkster
    Free Member

    “It also shows the lie perpetrated by Guardian journalist Jenkins, that Putin has increased his stranglehold on the Russian population.”

    Not necessarily, if I were a Russian citizen I’d certainly feel like Putin was had his hands around my throat right now. The article does outline the possibility of some kind of resistance emerging but is rather vague about how that is going to happen, something underlined by the author’s observation that 80% of the population is apolitical and completely disconnected from each other.

    There is also the possibility that some other villain steps up to fill Putin’s shoes. Really interesting article though..

    timba
    Free Member

    It also shows the lie perpetrated by Guardian journalist Jenkins…snip

    If you’re talking about Simon Jenkins (as 2 days ago ^^) then he seems to suffer the occasional misunderstanding, such as this example from March 2020, “Why I’m taking the coronavirus hype with a pinch of salt”
    He’s made the sanctions argument at least twice (in May and July)
    He also argues that “there were no Celts, just sociable sailors”

    thols2
    Free Member

    I don’t know how seriously to take this, but just the fact that Russians are talking about it shows how desperate they are.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Amnesty really screwed the dog with their report. Trying to argue nuance in the face of Russian trolls is unbelievably stupid.

    It’s given the Russian authorities something to beat the Ukrainians with, for sure:

    Not sure how the Ukrainian fighters can stay out of “Civilian Areas” while defending the country really.

    seosamh77
    Free Member

    thols2
    Free Member
    I don’t know how seriously to take this, but just the fact that Russians are talking about it shows how desperate they are.

    Could be a sign of low munitions stocks in russia tbh. It’s unlikely you are going to see 100k north koreans storming Ukraine, but I’d imagine they are after their stockpiles and anything interesting they’ve developed, if anything. Been reading snippets last few days, seems an opportunity for north korea in the short term anyhow. Energy and Grain is the other side of the bargain.

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    North Korean volunteers- now there’s an oxymoron 🤣

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    The broader point I took from the article above was that Putin is afraid of declaring an actual war, precisely because he is afraid of the reaction of the general population. Doesn’t exactly suggest a total and increasing control of the population, as claimed by Jenkins. I would say the Chinese authorities have a much stronger control.

    Add to that the oil price has dramatically fallen! And you begin to see that Jenkins article is utter blx.
    Jenkins also claimed that sanctions didn’t work in Iran, but it was sanctions that drove Iran to the negotiating table for the Nuclear deal (subsequently ruined by Trump).

    thols2
    Free Member

    Not sure how the Ukrainian fighters can stay out of “Civilian Areas” while defending the country really.

    I’m getting the feeling that the Amnesty view is that Ukraine shouldn’t defend itself at all. Seems to be just a rehash of the “quickest way for the war to end is for Ukraine to surrender” argument.

    inkster
    Free Member

    Not sure wether to believe the narrative that Russia has used up all its smart weapons and is therefore using old stock?

    The counter narrative would be that munitions have a shelf life. Could it be that conflicts are often seen as an opportunity to dispose of ageing munitions first, it being cheaper to put a shell in a barrel and fire it at you enemy than dispose of it responsibly or keep paying for its storage / maintenance.

    Likewise with the tank count. Russia has lost a lot of them but so has Ukraine and the Ukranians aren’t being resupplied with modern tanks. I wonder what quantity of ageing dumb munitions are stockpiled in China, North Korea etc that they’d let go to Russia for a price?

    The Russian strategy is not as dependent on smart weapons as the Ukranians, for whom smart weapons compensate for numerical disadvantages.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Not sure wether to believe the narrative that Russia has used up all its smart weapons and is therefore using old stock?

    After the first couple of days had passed I find it hard to believe Russia would be holding back on anything that might turn a battle in their favour.

    Maybe, just maybe at the start, but as soon as various fronts stalled, collapsed, good will gestured, slowed to a crawl I dont think itd continue.

    Ukranians aren’t being resupplied with modern tanks.

    Depends what you mean by modern tanks? The PT91s from Poland, are they modern, relative to what theyre facing?

    thols2
    Free Member

    These are American anti-radar missiles launched from aircraft. Question is, how did Ukraine launch them? Ukrainian Migs would need upgrading to launch them and NATO hasn’t officially supplied any Western aircraft.

    singletrackmind
    Full Member

    Drone launched harm missiles.?
    Haven’t the usa given some uav’s capable of launching munitions?
    No need to mod your migs if a predator drone can do what needs doing from 30,000ft.
    Just get the PlayStation generation to pilot the plane remotely.

    Bit of a stretch though, linking what looks like a tailfin or canard with some random numbers to an actual weapon. Plus, so what. You got hit by an air to mud missile, as opposed to a mud to mud
    Hope it took out what it was targeting and killed the operators.

Viewing 40 posts - 9,961 through 10,000 (of 13,649 total)

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