Viewing 40 posts - 9,921 through 9,960 (of 12,282 total)
  • Ukraine
  • timba
    Free Member

    I kinda agree that’s a possibility, but I think there’s a fundamental shift that’s happening here

    The Russians will have caused themselves problems here too. Their reaction to Western businesses leaving following the invasion of Ukraine was to consider new laws that would allow the state to seize those businesses.
    If a business is more than 25% foreign-owned then a state administrator can seize the business and sell it while barring that company from business in Russia.
    As a company I’d be thinking long and hard about investing in Russia knowing that they’ve already invaded Ukraine twice and been subject to sanctions that a) limit business opportunities and b) would affect my share price and trigger boycotts of my goods. That’s aside from the humanitarian aspects to the invasion
    Some companies have had to remain in name-only because they franchised themselves. They reacted by stopping the export of their goods to the franchise
    For some companies it’s business as usual, including a surprising number of European companies https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain

    piemonster
    Full Member

    A reminder as to how badly wrong assumptions/judgements can be.

    The FP article (opinion piece) is paywalled for me so you get selected Twitter quotes

    Of course, it may still be right in the longer term. Despite Russia being out of troops for the last 3 months straight.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    As a company I’d be thinking long and hard about investing in Russia

    Even before this latest invasion it was questionable, theres a few publicly available papers on the 1990s and the implications that might be worth a read if anyone has the time.

    Theres a lot of hand wringing involved involved about western businesses back in the 90s, but at the heart of it all seems to have been rampant corruption making business difficult at best, impossible in the extreme.

    Im not seeing any quick fixes unless you buy into (what I consider a fantasy) Putin being deposed anytime soon.

    Hes pretty much sidelined, imprisoned or killed anyone capable enough of replacing him.

    thols2
    Free Member

    A reminder as to how badly wrong assumptions/judgements can be.

    One of the big assumptions was that the Russian army would be competent. The assumption was that they would follow the U.S./NATO model of destroying anti-aircraft radar and missile batteries using stand-off weapons, then destroy the Ukrainian airforce, then destroy Ukrainian logistics, then sieze Kyiv and the major cities. As it turns out, the impressive military they had on paper didn’t exist in reality and the advance on Kyiv was a debacle that they will probably never recover from. If the Russian had actually achieved air superiority as expected, sending HIMARS would have just been a waste of HIMARS – they would have quickly been destroyed by the Russian airforce.

    nickc
    Full Member

    Im not seeing any quick fixes unless you buy into (what I consider a fantasy) Putin being deposed anytime soon.

    Even if Putin is deposed, his replacement would likely as not be just as bad. Russia doesn’t have a history of past democracy to fall back on. I don’t think it will have a Damascene conversion any time soon.

    seosamh77
    Full Member

    timba
    Free Member

    The Russians will have caused themselves problems here too.

    They’ve caused themselves monumental problems, more so that we’ll face no doubt.

    Well in saying that, we’re a baw hair away from putting Liz Truss in charge mind you. 😆

    timba
    Free Member

    German Ex-Chancellor and Chair of Nord Stream AG and Rosneft, Gerhard Schroeder, has popped up, “The good news is that the Kremlin wants a negotiated solution”
    “Schroeder said solutions to crucial problems such as Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, could be found over time, “maybe not over 99 years, like Hong Kong, but in the next generation”.” https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-accuses-us-direct-ukraine-war-role-missile-attacks-2022-08-03/
    I think that this will encourage UKR to continue with its current battle plans

    thols2
    Free Member

    I think that this will encourage UKR to continue with its current battle plans

    Short of withdrawing completely from Ukrainian territory, I’m at a loss to imagine anything that Putin or his lackeys could say or do that wouldn’t encourage Ukraine to just keep on with their battle plans.

    funkrodent
    Full Member

    Looks like the offensive in Kherson may be picking up pace. From the Telegraph:

    Ukraine has recaptured 53 settlements in the southern region of Kherson as its fightback in the largely Russian occupied region mounts, the regional governor has said.

    Ukraine has pledged to conduct a major counter-offensive to retake the swathes of land Russia captured early in the war, using Western-made long-range weapons to hit Russian supply lines.

    “As of now, 53 settlements have been confirmed as liberated,” Dmytro Butriy, the acting governor, said on national television.

    That figure was nine settlements more than the number he gave on 1 August, which appeared to indicate a quickening tempo of Ukrainian gains in the region.

    Telegraph isn’t my paper/website of choice, but their coverage of the war hasn’t been bad

    nickc
    Full Member

    I read an interesting and pretty balance (I thought) twitter feed about the current state of the war which essentially said: While the UKR are clearly winning the propaganda war, they’ve suffered just as much losses as the Russians and probably don’t have the strength to make a counter-offensive before 2023  when they can regroup, train new recruits on new weapons systems and have enough “stuff” ready to make it work and stick. The Russian recruitment round this year has actually been pretty successful and the likelihood is that whats true fro the UKR is true for the Russians also (ie no real ability to mount an offensive before spring 2023)

    However he also thought that there’s immense pressure on UKR politicians to be seen to take the fight to the Russians. that may be politically difficult to avoid, but militarily may be the wrong move.

    DrJ
    Full Member

    Despite Russia being out of troops for the last 3 months straight.

    So who is it that’s occupying the Donbas? I’m afraid that reports of Russia’s demise are, unfortunately, exaggerated.

    DrJ
    Full Member

    Russias gas pipelines of any consequence are pointing towards Europe.

    Indeed, and they are there because we need gas. So the Russians, unlike the North Koreans, have us over a barrel (so to speak).

    piemonster
    Full Member

    So who is it that’s occupying the Donbas? I’m afraid that reports of Russia’s demise are, unfortunately, exaggerated.

    Which was my point tbf, but too subtle perhaps.

    DrJ
    Full Member

    Which was my point tbf, but too subtle perhaps.

    Yes, sorry – whoosh! moment there on my part.

    seosamh77
    Full Member

    nickc
    Full Member
    I read an interesting and pretty balance (I thought) twitter feed about the current state of the war which essentially said: While the UKR are clearly winning the propaganda war, they’ve suffered just as much losses as the Russians and probably don’t have the strength to make a counter-offensive before 2023 when they can regroup, train new recruits on new weapons systems and have enough “stuff” ready to make it work and stick. The Russian recruitment round this year has actually been pretty successful and the likelihood is that whats true fro the UKR is true for the Russians also (ie no real ability to mount an offensive before spring 2023)

    However he also thought that there’s immense pressure on UKR politicians to be seen to take the fight to the Russians. that may be politically difficult to avoid, but militarily may be the wrong move.

    Yes this is the sense I’ve been getting as well, and as we move out of the summer closer to autumn and winter, you’ve got to imagine it’ll stall further into next year as ground conditions become more difficult. Problem with that is if it settles down over winter, it also gives the Russians time to regroup too. So anyone’s guess as to how it plays out next year.

    As for Kherson, I’ve been hearing that the Russians are essentially doubling their troop count in the area, also, while damaging the bridge and destroying the railway bridge is probably slowing the Russians down, that’s all it’ll be doing as the dam a few miles up the road isn’t something they can destroy. It’s a war crime to destroy dams.

    I was also listening to the Telegraph podcast on youtube, and they seem to suggest that Ukraine is having to go to the IMF for a 20 billion loan as they have or are on the verge of default. Which I’m surprised about, I’d have thought western funding would have been enough to keep their economy going. Bit of an alarm bell that tbh.

    seosamh77
    Full Member

    funkrodent
    Full Member

    “As of now, 53 settlements have been confirmed as liberated,” Dmytro Butriy, the acting governor, said on national television.

    If you look at any maps, the frontline in Kherson hasn’t changed for nearly 2 months. I think these 53 settlements probably refer to land regained a few months back as opposed to anything really recent. The current Ukrainian offensive operations look to be focused on a small area around a bridgehead over the inhulets, around a town called Andriivka just south of Krivvy Rih.

    seosamh77
    Full Member

    Invasion Maps

    That was a good site I got from a Ukrainian youtube commentator last night(he wasn’t confindent of more gains in the Kherson region coming up), shows maps and you can skip through the timeline of them. Shows the different active and previously active fronts too.

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    Re the dam bridge – there is a small section that crosses a lock (for ships) that has been successfully damaged, subsequently repaired- and presumably can be attacked again. Also, the road runs along side the dam, not over it, and may be vulnerable (risky!!!).

    tthew
    Full Member

    I’d have thought western funding would have been enough to keep their economy going.

    I don’t remember any reports of other countries donating cash, I thought it was mainly military hardware and other, more social requirements?

    20 billion doesn’t sound much, they must be absolutely haemorrhaging cash these last 6 months. Hmm, answering my own question, it’ll probably cover interest payments.

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    The US has promised financial support as part of it overall package.

    seosamh77
    Full Member

    tthew
    Free Member
    I’d have thought western funding would have been enough to keep their economy going.

    I don’t remember any reports of other countries donating cash, I thought it was mainly military hardware and other, more social requirements?

    20 billion doesn’t sound much, they must be absolutely haemorrhaging cash these last 6 months. Hmm, answering my own question, it’ll probably cover interest payments.

    I’m guessing there’s some kinda separation between miltary and government funding really, some of the funding has been earmarked for the government I think though. Pre-war the Ukrainian government spending was about £60/70 billion a year. I wouldn’t imagine it’s needing any less than that these days. So yeah, £20 billion sounds like a bit of a band aid.

    It would be my biggest criticism of western help tbh. Financially I don’t think it’s been nearly enough. If the goal is to push Russia out. It’s needs something more in the hundreds of billions, potentially a lot more to be committed to Ukraine. Would be intersting to see an overview of totals sent.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Cant speak for its accuracy but there is of course a wiki page

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

    inkster
    Free Member

    If it is the case that neither side has the capability of conducting a significant offensive till spring next year, (as some of the posts above indicate) then I guess we’re looking at an actual cold war rather than a metaphorical one.

    The coming winter will see the conflict fought via the thermostats of Western living rooms.

    Putin knows the West is soft so he’s going to freeze us into some sort of submission one way or the other.

    As Napoleon and Hitler found out, the Russians are rather adept at using winter weather to their advantage. Putin’s strategy for the next 6 months will be to sit and wait, watching Western Europe freezing it’s nuts off whilst squabbling amongst ourselves.

    FuzzyWuzzy
    Full Member

    Putin’s strategy for the next 6 months will be to sit and wait, watching Western Europe freezing it’s nuts off whilst squabbling amongst ourselves.

    That’s assuming his army can just stay in the field during that time, despite on-going (and likely increasing) harassment by Ukrainian forces. Whilst support from some Western European countries might fracture a bit when winter fuel shortages really bite I can’t see US (or UK) military aid being suspended and forcing the Ukrainians to cease operations until the Spring. If Putin think’s he’s got a morale problem in his army now he’s not seen anything compared with when his troops start freezing to death as their supply lines are strategically cut.

    seosamh77
    Full Member

    Cheers Piemonster.

    thols2
    Free Member

    If Putin think’s he’s got a morale problem in his army now he’s not seen anything compared with when his troops start freezing to death as their supply lines are strategically cut.

    Exactly.

    shermer75
    Free Member

     I can’t see US (or UK) military aid being suspended

    They continued to support the Mujahideen throughout the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, which took about 10 years, so there is a precedent there

    rickmeister
    Full Member

    and the likelihood of alternate energy supplies will kick in as im sure its not Russian gas or nothing….

    Murray
    Full Member

     I can’t see US (or UK) military aid being suspended

    Add in Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Australia, Canada, South Korea etc. Germany and France will face domestic pressure but even they may not fold.

    jivehoneyjive
    Free Member

    and the likelihood of alternate energy supplies will kick in as im sure its not Russian gas or nothing….

    And to think, at one point during lockdown, the price of oil went negative…

    Now everyone is gagging for fossil fuel goodness all over again, whatever the price.

    seosamh77
    Full Member

    shermer75
    Free Member
    I can’t see US (or UK) military aid being suspended

    They continued to support the Mujahideen throughout the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, which took about 10 years, so there is a precedent there

    I don’t think there’s a doubt that support will continue. Operations won’t shut down over the winter either, but you can imagine progress will be slow for either side as the weather comes in.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Ive been pretty sure for a while this is going to take a long time. Just a wild guess admittedly, either side could see a sudden collapse, although only one has somewhere to collapse to.

    Iirc Ukraine is expected to take a 40% drop to GDP this year.

    Edit, IMF going with -35%
    https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/UKR

    thols2
    Free Member

    This article is worth reading.

    shermer75
    Free Member

    I don’t think there’s a doubt that support will continue

    I hope so, although if looney balls Trump gets in next election who knows what he’ll do. Probably something along the lines of supplying arms to Russia, invading Ukraine and sticking his dick in the mashed potato

    dantsw13
    Free Member

    There’s a big difference between the Kherson Region, and Kherson city. The city itself is the other side of the river to the main Russian forces and their supply chain.
    Russians might be moving kit into the region, but their grip on the city itself is weak.

    imnotverygood
    Full Member

    I hope so, although if looney balls Trump gets in next election who knows what he’ll do. Probably something along the lines of supplying arms to Russia, invading Ukraine and sticking his dick in the mashed potato

    Maybe Putin is in it for the long haul & calculates that he only needs to wait until Trump is back

    thols2
    Free Member

    This article is a good illustration of the effect of sanctions.

    timba
    Free Member

    Indeed, and they are there because we need gas. So the Russians, unlike the North Koreans, have us over a barrel (so to speak)

    They do, but only in the short term. Unfortunately that will take Europe into winter and their gas storage isn’t full after the July Nord Stream 1 maintenance and consequent shutdown so all bets are off.
    Russia is playing games by refusing to take their turbine back from Germany saying that it’s subject to sanctions (it isn’t) and continue to pump gas at a reduced rate. Since when did Russia worry about international anything?
    Chancellor Scholz in the meantime is left fuming about the actions of former chancellors and fellow members of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in getting so tightly into bed with Russia. Not that he can criticise, he was Vice-Chancellor to Angela Merkel 🙂
    If Europe can get through winter the longer-term prospects for Russia aren’t so rosy. Their only other major pipeline is into China who leveraged them into a lower price for gas than Europe was paying following sanctions over Crimea in 2014.
    There are lots of chickens coming home to roost for politicians in Europe and the biggest is their abject failure to address global warming

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Frances Fukuyama may be something of a trigger towards some of the forums more … ideology driven posters.

    Background here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Fukuyama

    For which I offer no guarantees of accuracy. I dont know much beyond the usual headline “Frances once said….” and has been attributed with helping the rise of…

    piemonster
    Full Member

    There are lots of chickens coming home to roost for politicians in Europe and the biggest is their abject failure to address global warming

    This is one of the few things I have any optimism about, in that there is an increased chance the strategic threat of energy dependence may result in more sustainable energy sources.

    Not that much optimistic admittedly

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/08/germany-reactivate-coal-power-plants-russia-curbs-gas-flow

Viewing 40 posts - 9,921 through 9,960 (of 12,282 total)

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