Ukrainians arent stupid, and they have historical precedents for what Russia would do.

Perhaps ask them what they would do with hindsight if they knew this would happen.

My guess, based on Ukraine’s refusal to surrender, is that they would simply have prepared better to repel the invasion. Right up until the tanks rolled across the border people kept on hoping that Putin was just bluffing and war wasn’t inevitable. If Ukraine had mobilized earlier, they could probably have avoided losing so much territory in the south and east.

Another thing to think about is, with hindsight, would Putin have invaded if he realized the catastrophe he was bringing on Russia. He assumed that Ukraine would just capitulate in a couple of days and that NATO would be so terrified that he could dominate Europe. Now his army is in ruins, his economy is imploding, and Finland and Sweden are joining a revigorated NATO. He did not reap any of the benefits that he imagined, every outcome from this has been a disaster for Putin.

every outcome from this has been a disaster for Putin.

A disaster for Putin if you view it through a western lens, I don’t think Putin views things through a Western lens myself.

I think he’ll continue til the Donbas is all captured and it’ll just quieten down from there(could take a while). Either in a state of perpetual low level war, or some kinda negotiated peace, but that’s up to the Ukrainians to decide what they want there.

Seosamh 77, agree with that it’s what some (of us) on here were saying a week into the conflict, including the STW pet troll!

Regime change didn’t happen did It?
Sanctions didn’t bring Russia to its knees did they?

True, Putin thought he’d overrun Ukraine in 3 days but doesn’t seem particularly bothered that he didn’t, cranking the handle of the meat grinder means little to him and as a by product, he’s managed to get an even firmer grip on Russia itself.

I said at the time people think they’re watching “Black Hawk Down” when they’re actually watching “Come and See.”

cranking the handle of the meat grinder means little to him and as a by product, he’s managed to get an even firmer grip on Russia itself.

This pretty much sums it up unfortunately

Sanctions didn’t bring Russia to its knees did they?

Haven’t yet bought Russia to it’s knees.

nickc
Full Member
Sanctions didn’t bring Russia to its knees did they?

Haven’t yet bought Russia to it’s knees.

They won’t bring it to its knees, Plucky wee Cuba has survived sanctions for 60/70 years.

inkster
Free Member

cranking the handle of the meat grinder means little to him and as a by product, he’s managed to get an even firmer grip on Russia itself.

As the new commander of the British army said in his ‘mobilisation’ speech 10 days ago. Putin doesn’t think of war on a tactical level, he thinks on a strategic level. He also spoke of Putins ability to regenerate, NATO aren’t putting 300k troops on Russia’s border for no reason.

A disaster for Putin if you view it through a western lens, I don’t think Putin views things through a Western lens myself.

He hasn’t achieved any of the things he set out to do, it’s a disaster by his own metrics:

1. He assumed Ukraine would capitulate and install a puppet president who would take orders from Putin. Did not happen.

2. He assumed the world would see the might of the Russian military and be cowed, allowing Russia to reassert itself as a superpower. Did not happen.

3. He wanted to split NATO and reassert Russian dominance over Eastern Europe. The opposite happened.

If you can see any lens through which this is not a disaster for Putin, please explain how Russia is better off in any way than it was before.

As the new commander of the British army said in his ‘mobilisation’ speech 10 days ago. Putin doesn’t think of war on a tactical level, he thinks on a strategic level. He also spoke of Putins ability to regenerate, NATO aren’t putting 300k troops on Russia’s border for no reason.

Strategically it’s a disaster for Russia. They are much weaker now than they were six months ago.

Russia is highly dependent on Western technology to manufacture pretty much everything. They can’t replace all their lost armoured vehicles, aircraft, etc. without imported factory equipment and electronics. Sure, they can dig out some old Cold War era gear, scrape off the rust, slap on a coat of paint and use it for parades celebrating beating Hitler, but they can now see that their military technology is far behind NATO levels. They need to scrap their old gear and rearm with modern stuff, but they need imported technology to do that.

Yeah, but none of that really matters does it, cause Putin isn’t going to fight NATO. If there’s a fight with NATO it’ll involve China, and you are really discussing a larger war there that has very little to do with this conflict.

And if there’s a fight with China, everyone’s chips will disappear. Cause the high technology is in Taiwan. Hence the desire at the minute to start building chip factories elsewhere.

As a side, Speaking of chips, someone on the news mentioned about stripping washing machines for chips. Erm whit ye talking aboot! 😆 Why would they go to washing machines firstly, rather than just confiscating everyone’s personal computers or phones if they needed chips.

If you think on a strategic level, this war is very instructive for China and Russia. Let’s them know quite a few things.

If you can see any lens through which this is not a disaster for Putin, please explain how Russia is better off in any way than it was before.

Russia and Putin are not the same.
Yes, it’s a disaster for Russia but as someone said above Putin has strengthened his grip on power. Therefore Putin is happy to keep going.

Why would they go to washing machines firstly, rather than just confiscating everyone’s personal computers or phones if they needed chips.

Because the Albanian State Washing Machine Conmpany “clearly have a technology way in advance of our own”

“Haven’t yet bought Russia to it’s knees.”

If the Russians find themselves on their knees they’ll just bite you in the nuts.

Just like the Black Knight in The Holy Grail.

Plucky wee Cuba has survived sanctions for 60/70 years.

It has no pretension to being a world super power.

Plucky wee Cuba has survived sanctions for 60/70 years.

If, in years to come, we’re talking about ‘Plucky Russia surviving sanctions’, we can probably say that sanctions had the desired effect.

we won’t though, cause russia and china are thick as thieves, imo.

Yeah, but none of that really matters does it, cause Putin isn’t going to fight NATO. If there’s a fight with NATO it’ll involve China

He’s not going to take on NATO now because he’s seen how weak his military is. Six months ago, he thought differently, he thought NATO would back down if he kept escalating his provocations. His bigger strategic plan was to weaken NATO and force the Eastern European countries back into a Russian dominated sphere of influence. The opposite has happened and now Finland and Sweden are joining NATO. That’s a strategic disaster for Putin and he’s powerless to do anything about it except rant on Russian TV.

NATO-China conflict seems unlikely. Taiwan is not a NATO member so NATO probably would not go to war with China over Taiwan. The U.S. and other NATO members might support Taiwan, but that’s not the same as NATO getting involved. On top of that, China has seen how badly Russia is doing in Ukraine and will realize that invading Taiwan would be even more difficult. I’m sure China will continue acting provocatively, but I don’t think they are foolish enough to start a shooting war.

we won’t though, cause russia and china are thick as thieves, imo.

They are united by a shared grievance towards liberal democracies. Beyond that, their relationship is purely transactional. They may be thick as thieves, but as the saying goes, “No honour among thieves.”

“His bigger strategic plan was to weaken NATO”

His bigger strategic plan was to weaken the EU. For Russia, NATO is a known, known. Putin sees the EU and the prosperity and freedom that it brings as a greater threat.

Ergo his ‘special operation’ in France at the EURO’s in 2016, running concurrently with the referendum, (brilliant timing that Dave) when he sent 3 plane loads of paramilitary hooligans to beat up on British fans. When you consider that Russia was due to stage the World Cup and Winter Olympics that was quite a risk. It clearly indicated to me how important Brexit was to Putin.

He is certainly the individual that has accrued the most from Brexit.

Why would they go to washing machines firstly

Because washing machine PCBs tend not to be multilayered surface mounts and because the electronics in a washing machine are designed for switching valves and motors not streaming pron

His bigger strategic plan was to weaken the EU.

Yes, you’re right about that.

Huge differences in the sanctions imposed on Cuba and more recently Russia:

Only the US has sanctioned Cuba. The UN voted for a resolution that sanctions should end in 1992, but that power lies with the US Congress. Cuba can still access the world
The EU hasn’t sanctioned Cuba

The UN cannot practically sanction Russia, as a member of the permanent Council it might just veto the resolution 🙂
Since 2014 the US has sanctioned Russia
Since 2014 the EU has sanctioned Russia. UK passed laws in 2020 that effectively maintain the EU sanction regime following Brexit
Sanctions continue to evolve and strengthen as the situation in the Ukraine evolves

EDIT: “His bigger strategic plan was to weaken the EU”
That hasn’t been the case in relation to sanctions

Maybe, just maybe, if Germany, France and Italy had been tougher in 2014 then Putin would have read the runes more effectively

Yep, Merkel must take the blame here ^

Maybe, just maybe, if Germany, France and Italy had been tougher in 2014 then Putin would have read the runes more effectively

Yes, definitely a lesson to be learned there. Looking at you, Xi Jinping

It will be interesting to see what the UK’s position towards the conflict will be when the offal in a broken condom is finally dragged out of office.

Dare I use the phrase quid-pro-quo in relation to Ukraine but thus far the UK policy towards Ukraine has looked like missiles for photo opps and name drops.

Merkel must take the blame here ^

Agreed. She wasn’t alone in trying to tie Russia in to trade, and turning a nearly blind eye to the annexing of Crimea, but she was the most important world leader making that mistake at the time.

If you think on a strategic level, this war is very instructive for China and Russia. Let’s them know quite a few things.

Instructive indeed. Putin now knows that Russia is weak and surrounded by countries that aren’t afraid to defy it.

Putin is suffering from the failure to understand that Russia is not the great power he thought it was. With his whole army tied down in Ukraine, Kazakhstan is using the opportunity to pull away. Putin’s attempts to maintain influence are likely backfiring. https://t.co/9GnFyPec39

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) July 8, 2022

One good thing is the war and the sanctions have forced governments around the world to look at alternative energy sources.
Oil and gas in mind boggling volumes, and its associated revenue generation pumps tons of co2 into the atmosphere. More solar, wind and nuclear power will hopefully reduce this substantially.
Shame thousands of Ukraine and Russian soldiers have to die to make the change happen
Timpot local radio reporting today uk army training 10,000 ukraine soldiers in a 6 week fast track course.
Send them home with some decent equipment and one would hope the Russian advance could he held roughly where it is now, then nibbled away at constantly whilst building up an even stronger force to kick them out.

Cant help thinking that any break through in numbers, with air and armour could turn into a rout as the Russian forces just surrender as their not motivated to fight to the last man to secure a town or village in the region

I did see a claim via Twitter that Kazakhstan was manoeuvring to supply more energy to the west. Never saw any verification of that, has anyone seem anything along those lines?

It was on the sort of Twitter account that pretends to be a news channel, but isnt.

If this is accurate I do not know. https://www.euractiv.com/section/central-asia/news/russia-shuts-down-terminal-after-kazakhstan-offers-to-send-more-oil-to-the-eu/

UK policy towards Ukraine has looked like missiles for photo opps and name drops

And what do the policies of Germany, France and Italy look like? Poland has contibuted almost as much as the three together
https://www.statista.com/chart/27278/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/ scroll down to the chart (+ the billion announced by Boris a week ago)

Nope

The Uk has trained 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers since 2015. Supplied weapons before the Russian invasion. Germanys offer at the beginning of the war was 5,000 helmets 🤷‍♂️

Judging by what’s been achieved with 4 HIMARS – supplying 400 would end this war quickly. It’s a mystery why this isn’t happening.

Judging by what’s been achieved with 4 HIMARS

Do tell.

I think its the HIMARS taking out the ammo dumps Matt referred too

“And what do the policies of Germany, France and Italy look like?”

Do they even have a policy? I can’t argue with you there. I think if we were still part of the EU we could have pressured those countries into doing more and having a more coherent joint strategy.

But then if we hadn’t left the EU then this war might not of happened.

I also accept that the UK has been helping Ukraine for years. Unlike the other main European nations, we actually had a policy.

I’m not questioning the underlying policy, rather observing how Johnson has indulged in unnecessary rattling, tethering his personality to the conflict. He sees the fact that we are supplying more aid to Ukraine than France, Germany etc as some kind of Brexit victory and plays it for his own advantage.

20 odd ammo dumps in a week or so, from 4 units, imagine that x 100

I suggest that we keep Brexit out of this, but yes, it might have emboldened Russia. I think that the 2014 sanctions were more of an influence than Brexit

I can’t argue with you there. I think if we were still part of the EU we could have pressured those countries into doing more and having a more coherent joint strategy

We were part of the EU in 2014 when sanctions were put in place. I’ll leave you to look that up, but essentially it was business as usual for existing agreements. Only new ones were subject to discussion. UK changed our law in 2020 (following Brexit) to maintain EU sanctions

But then if we hadn’t left the EU then this war might not of happened

Germany (number 1 EU economy), *France (number 2 EU economy) and Italy (number 3 EU economy) also have the closest energy ties to Russia. UK was never going to be allowed to upset that arrangement and put their economies at risk (*UK was number 2 EU economy)

I also accept that the UK has been helping Ukraine for years. Unlike the other main European nations, we actually had a policy.

Which underscores the point above; we couldn’t achieve what we felt was right within an EU agreement so we added a bit

I’m not questioning the underlying policy, rather observing how Johnson has indulged in unnecessary rattling, tethering his personality to the conflict. He sees the fact that we are supplying more aid to Ukraine than France, Germany etc as some kind of Brexit victory and plays it for his own advantage

Regardless of the psychology, ask Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy what he thinks as he looks around a devastated country

20 odd ammo dumps in a week or so, from 4 units

Ah, I hadn’t seen the attribution.