Viewing 40 posts - 9,361 through 9,400 (of 11,616 total)
  • Ukraine
  • FuzzyWuzzy
    Full Member

    Just me or does it feel like Russia are going to grind out a victory across Ukraine in the long term?

    Depends entirely on how long Western support lasts, assuming Russia doesn’t escalate to chemical weapons or tactical nukes it will grind to a stalemate.

    At best for Russia they will take the Donbas, proclaim victory and that operations are at an end so that when Ukraine carries on legitimately trying to take it’s territory back Russia can try and claim they are the aggressor. At this stage Western support can probably start to scale back but still be effective (e.g. supplying precision and longer-range artillery, put back in place a proper air defence network and get enough munitions staged to allow Ukraine to sustain Ukraine harassing Russian occupation forces).

    No idea what happens after that though, hopefully the West will provide enough support to allow Ukraine to counter-attack (especially in the South) but I’d expect that support to last months rather than years unless Ukraine could start funding it but can’t see that happening any time soon, they’ve got half a country to rebuild 🙁

    timba
    Free Member

    Belarus continues to up the ante, I’m hopeful that it’s sabre-rattling by Lukashenko https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-leader-stands-with-russia-campaign-2022-07-03/
    I’d be surprised if they’re not already supplying Russia with materiel and that neither Russia nor Belarus have much in the way of stock

    thols2
    Free Member

    Of course, this might just be a regular accidental fire but there really do seem to be a lot of things catching fire in Russia these days.

    mattyfez
    Full Member

    Until the conflict ends Ukraine has no victory whatsoever. Russia will throw everything at this conflict because whoever controls Ukraine “controls” the world, and the west knows it.

    They won’t have any army left or any economy, Eu countries are cutting out russian gas as fast as they think thier populations can cope with it, not to mention all the other global sanctions.
    Add to that a direct up-tick in EU membership applications and NATO membership applications as a direct result of Russian agression in Ukraine.

    There will be a paradigm shift one way or the other, and it’ll be a hell of a hill to die on for Russia. This was Georgia yesterday:

    kimbers
    Full Member

    Sounds like Ukraninan retreat from Lysychansk was retty organised

    https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1543706058589601792

    slowoldman
    Full Member

    Russia will throw everything at this conflict because whoever controls Ukraine “controls” the world, and the west knows it.

    I don’t recall that being the case when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union.

    breatheeasy
    Free Member

    Russia seem to be just using artillery as a 20 mile deep bulldozer and just edging forwards obliterating everything slowly. They’ll get short of ammunition at some point, or the 15 mile UKR gubs will get replaced with longer range Western ones with potentially guide munitions and then it could become interesting. Though I don’t Europe and US can keep producing the rounds in quantity either.

    I don’t recall that being the case when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union.

    I think thats not really a reflection of the strategic importance of UKR, more Russia wins and they can do what they like with other (nonNATO) countries and we keep buuying its gas/oil and China gets emboldened, or Rest of World wins and Russia (and possibly China) get put back in their box and Russia goes bankrupt.

    nickc
    Full Member

    I don’t recall that being the case when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union.

    I looked back to see who’d written that…why am I not surprised? Do not feed the troll.

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    7 ammo storage facilities destroyed in 7 days, I hear 👍

    chewkw
    Free Member

    They won’t have any army left or any economy, Eu countries are cutting out russian gas as fast as they think thier populations can cope with it, not to mention all the other global sanctions.
    Add to that a direct up-tick in EU membership applications and NATO membership applications as a direct result of Russian agression in Ukraine.

    There will be a paradigm shift one way or the other, and it’ll be a hell of a hill to die on for Russia. This was Georgia yesterday:

    All the sanctions mean oil price increase with the results impacting on developing and 3rd world countries, which means their governments will not have happy people to govern. They don’t see it as Russia problem rather the sanctions affecting them due to rising cost. The people don’t earn a lot over there and their governments know that and when they have difficulty governing, the blame will be placed squarely on the West. Not Russia.

    I don’t recall that being the case when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union.

    Because there was no sanctions affecting others indirectly. People could still manage in those days but now price has increased by 30% to 60% and that impact is felt. Sooner or later when the Western policy indirectly push the developing and 3rd world towards further hardship, that’s when they will take side and with oil and gas being the necessity they will definitely not be dictated by the West. That’s when they break the sanctions and when they gang up like EU that’s when you see food shortage big time.

    I think thats not really a reflection of the strategic importance of UKR, more Russia wins and they can do what they like with other (nonNATO) countries and we keep buuying its gas/oil and China gets emboldened, or Rest of World wins and Russia (and possibly China) get put back in their box and Russia goes bankrupt.

    It is a strategic importance hence the west keen interest in Ukraine and for years have been slowly reeling in Ukraine in order to break Russia. They know a wealthy Russia is a threat economically etc. Also Russia and China are Not Sri Lanka. If they go bankrupt probably the whole world will go into hardship.

    andrewh
    Free Member

    Russia seem to be just using artillery as a 20 mile deep bulldozer and just edging forwards obliterating everything slowly. They’ll get short of ammunition at some point

    I was listening to a podcast about this a couple of days ago. It’s not just ammunition. The barrel of the big artillery pieces can fire roughly 2,500 rounds before it needs to repaired.
    This obviously gives gives Ukrainians some breathing space, maybe even an opportunity for a counter attack, if the guns have to be withdrawn and sent away to be repaired. And this is assuming that the factories in Russia still have the parts or raw materials vailable to fix them, that’s where the sanctions will start to hurt them.
    .
    The problem with this of course is that worn barrels really just lose accuracy rather than the ability to fire. This will be a problem for the Russians if they trying to hit something specific but it is much less of an issue for indiscriminately flattening a city.
    Also Ukrainian will run into the se problem at some point, but will hopefully find it easier to get theirs fixed/replaced.

    MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    All the sanctions mean oil price increase with the results impacting on developing and 3rd world countries, which means their governments will not have happy people to govern. They don’t see it as Russia problem rather the sanctions affecting them due to rising cost. The people don’t earn a lot over there and their governments know that and when they have difficulty governing, the blame will be placed squarely on the West. Not Russia.

    I think this is a valid point- we are only seeing this through a “Western” lens. Lots of parts of the world don’t give a damn provided they can get enough food and fuel, and plenty of them will pay Russia to provide either

    timba
    Free Member

    Also Ukrainian will run into the se problem at some point, but will hopefully find it easier to get theirs fixed/replaced

    That service exists; UK bought 20+ used M109 self-propelled guns last month and is sending them to UKR as they’re refurbed

    chewkw
    Free Member

    I think this is a valid point- we are only seeing this through a “Western” lens. Lots of parts of the world don’t give a damn provided they can get enough food and fuel, and plenty of them will pay Russia to provide either

    It is a matter of when not if. At that point they will break ranks with the West en bloc. Unless of course the West keep their leaders happy by “donating” for “charitable” cause and getting away with it.

    When people earn 1/5 of UK average (some lesser) but pay the equivalent of almost 1/2 the UK price, they can’t stretch their income far enough to have a decent life.

    timba
    Free Member

    Sanctions will cause all sorts of problems in the world economy.
    Russia is having to fill in lots of gaps from MacD to aircraft parts and shipping insurance. They have a certain amount of expertise from Russians employed in local offices of global corporations and will have to (for example) insure their cargo ships so that owners will risk their use.
    Those businesses have traditionally not been Russian, but will be going forward because the state isn’t adverse to seizing control of western companies looking to leave and they have the roubles to finance it

    seosamh77
    Full Member

    Was just reading Strelkov’s telegram posts for the last few days, interesting reading tbh, he seems to think the weapons are starting to get through to the Ukrainians and will start to make a difference soon (talking of ‘growing superiority of the enemy in manpower [..] and equipment’). And that some mobilization on the Russian side is required sooner rather than later.

    Also mentions that this is the end of the 2nd phase. Wonder if there will be a bit of a lull before the 3rd phase begins. Sounds like the Russian troops badly need a rest.

    Interesting comment on the Ukrainian tactics, as we’ve seen on our teles and the withdrawal from Lysychansk, ie tactic of let the the Russians attack and them grind them down might become a more useful tactic with better equipment. He’s refusing to predict that will happen going forward, but an interesting enough thought.

    1. Opponent.
    – Over the past month, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been continuously increasing the number of troops and military equipment in all directions – both “active” and “sleeping”, creating a steady superiority in manpower, artillery and armored vehicles in many of them. At the same time, the enemy continued to form strategic reserves, limiting their entry into battle even at the height of the battle for Severodonetsk-Lysichansk.
    – As a new element of the tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, special attention is noted to the destruction by rocket artillery and unmanned aircraft of important rear facilities of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the LDNR, primarily large ammunition depots that were not covered or weakly covered by air defense forces.
    – Local superiority in manpower allowed the enemy in many areas to occupy previously abandoned territories without a fight, complicating the tactical position of our units and subunits operating in these areas.
    – Apparently, the emphatically defensive nature of the battle for Severodonetsk-Lysichansk on the part of the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was deliberateter. The battles were only dragged out with the aim of gaining as much time as possible and inflicting maximum losses on the Russian strike force. After the loss of the main positions was a foregone conclusion, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to withdraw the core of its defending troops, avoiding the encirclement of even a small part of them – both in Severodonetsk and in the area of ​​​​Lysichansk and Zolote-Gorskoe. At the same time, however, most of the defenders’ equipment was irretrievably lost.

    Conclusion: The Armed Forces of Ukraine are completing preparations for their own active operations in one or more directions. Whether the enemy will first wait for a new attack by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation or will take his actions in a proactive manner – I will not undertake to predict.

    2. Our troops.
    – The offensive potential of the strike force that took Lisichansk is practically exhausted. To continue the offensive without an operational pause necessary for the replenishment and rest of the troops is fraught with additional heavy losses without significant results. Regrouping and determining the next offensive targets are required, as well as taking measures to repel probable enemy attacks.
    – Russian troops are experiencing growing difficulties in confronting the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the tactical level due to the growing superiority of the enemy in manpower, as well as an increase in modern military equipment at his disposal.
    – The lack of replenishment and the impossibility of rotation (especially for those who stay on the front line for 3-4 months without changing the mobilized units of the LDNR Armed Forces) – leads to a slow but constant decrease in the actual combat readiness and morale of our units and formations on the defensive (whereas the morale of those who suffered heavy losses, but the advancing assault units remain high).
    – allow yourself to “fix”stay in position”, giving the initiative completely into the hands of the enemy, the military-political and military leadership of the Russian Federation will not be able to, since the prolongation of hostilities in these conditions only leads to an increase in the enemy’s forces while weakening their own forces. Therefore, I expect the prepared reserves to be brought into battle in the new offensive operation as part of the “Battle for the Initiative” immediately after a certain operational pause.

    General conclusion for May-June:
    The “second stage of the NWO” ended without the full achievement of the set goals. The grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass has not been defeated and not completely driven back from its territory. It was only possible to break up and push out part of the enemy grouping from the “ledge” along the Seversky Donets, completely freeing the territory of the LPR and the cities of Popasnaya, Krasny Liman, Severodonetsk, Lisichansk, and a number of smaller settlements.
    The operation demonstrated that the “peacetime army” of the Russian Federation, significantly reinforced by the LDNR Armed Forces and “surrogates” of various PMCs, will solve the problem of completely defeating the Armed Forces of Ukraine and victoriously completing the so-called. “SVO” is no longer possibleobna.
    Delay in mobilization measures in the Russian Federation itself may in the coming months cause a crisis in certain sectors of the “Ukrainian front”, and further ignoring the above inability may negatively affect the situation on a strategic scale.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Sooner or later when the Western policy indirectly push the developing and 3rd world towards further hardship, that’s when they will take side and with oil and gas being the necessity they will definitely not be dictated by the West. That’s when they break the sanctions and when they gang up like EU that’s when you see food shortage big time.

    Happy to be corrected, but i dont believe much, if any, of the “3rd world”* countries have enacted meaningful sanctions against Russia?

    *Is that really the best term for the wide array of countries not applying sanctions?

    Im also not sure you can blame western sanctions either, they only exist in response to Russia’s renewed invasion. No invasion, no sanctions. I could be reading you wrong here.

    shermer75
    Free Member

    3rd world is an outdated cold war term that referred to the non-alligned nations- so those that didn’t ally themselves with either the Soviet Union or the US

    shermer75
    Free Member

    ‘Developing nations’ is probably a better fit in this instance

    Or worse, they start to warp or disfigure. Not that it’s a bad thing for UKR, anything that puts Russian guns out of action.

    The problem with this of course is that worn barrels really just lose accuracy rather than the ability to fire.

    seosamh77
    Full Member

    shermer75
    Free Member
    3rd world is an outdated cold war term that referred to the non-alligned nations- so those that didn’t ally themselves with either the Soviet Union or the US

    So basically, it’s probably valid again to start using it. 😆

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Well, sort of. Except the other “pole” is really China.

    Caher
    Full Member

    Lots of depressing news coming out of Ukraine regarding Russian gains. I just wonder if there might be more going on such as a deliberate fall back to enable an encirclement, something like Cannae.

    seosamh77
    Full Member

    piemonster
    Free Member
    Well, sort of. Except the other “pole” is really China.

    Yeah, first world NATO, second world Russia, China(inevitable) and assorted friends, 3rd world everyone else.

    Markie
    Full Member

    The mood amongst the Ukranian guests in our village is perhaps darkening. The main worry is not directly the Russian gains, but that their sons, husbands and other relatives aged between about 18 and 50 may be called to the frontline. I don’t believe any of them had any military experience prior to the invasion.

    The UK state continues to represent itself incredibly – the majority of the village now have NHS dentists, and about a third have had initial appointments! The school has been awesome, the end of term play has been a source of pleasure (and some bemusement) for kids and parents both.

    I don’t know how this comes across, but in our house we just kind of mostly act like the war isn’t happening? Day to day things are pretty cheerful, but I’m aware that all my family and I see is the surface. Communication remains google translate based, and the war and how they are affected by it aren’t discussions that I would want to drive, or that they bring up. My ‘knowledge’ of their fears, as given in the first para, came from a fluently bilingual london based ukranian friend of theirs who I met on Sunday as we shared a day out. Far out.

    bikesandboots
    Full Member

    To those for whom it may interest, in case you’re not following the Boris thread, some discussion following chewkw’s post:

    Because the west has overstepped the boundary. West has no business in that part of the world especially with Ukraine.

    Boris Johnson!

    ElShalimo
    Full Member

    I think he’s a troll sent from the future masquerading as a bloke in the Orient to confuse humanity

    Caher
    Full Member

    Yea, used to think he was a little eccentric but now think he’s an apologist for genocide. Fancy telling a Ukrainian that their country is rightfully within another country’s “sphere of influence”.

    chewkw
    Free Member

    I think he’s a troll sent from the future masquerading as a bloke in the Orient to confuse humanity

    Humanity has already confused themselves long ago. I am not that great to have the ability to confuse humanity.

    Yea, used to think he was a little eccentric but now think he’s an apologist for genocide. Fancy telling a Ukrainian that their country is rightfully within another country’s “sphere of influence”.

    Perhaps ask them what they would do with hindsight if they knew this would happen.

    Apologist for genocide? Perhaps that question should be put to those that tempted Ukraine to think and to act differently (corrupted their minds). Yes, Russian invaded but now the Ukrainians will know who they are actually fighting for … definitely not their own interest (although that may seen the case). Is it worth it?

    thols2
    Free Member

    Yea, used to think he was a little eccentric but now think he’s an apologist for genocide. Fancy telling a Ukrainian that their country is rightfully within another country’s “sphere of influence”.

    It doesn’t really matter what Putin apologists think. What matters is that Ukrainians are willing to fight for their nation’s sovereignty. They aren’t going to surrender just because some people on the internet said they should. They are getting enough support from other countries to grind the Russian army down. Russia may be able to dig in and keep firing artillery but their territorial gains have limited to a few kilometers at huge cost. A lot of their best equipment has been destroyed and what is left will become increasingly unservicable due to wear and tear. Russia is now at the point of digging out old T62 tanks, which are basically 1950s technology, and trying to enlist 50 year old men. They may did into positions that are difficult for Ukraine to recapture, but Russia’s military capacity is steadily being degraded so there is no prospect for a Russian victory.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Jeez, can you not trigger it. What can you possibly expect to gain.

    timba
    Free Member

    … definitely not their own interest

    I suppose that depends upon what is considered to be in their own interest and the answer to that lies with the people of the Ukraine and nobody else.
    Telling Ukrainians that being “Nazified” was definitely not in their own interest led to the invasion

    thols2
    Free Member

    I suppose that depends upon what is considered to be in their own interest and the answer to that lies with the people of the Ukraine and nobody else.

    See, you’re not understanding how Putin apologist logic works. Ukraine isn’t a Great Power so they don’t get to decide what is in their own best interest. Russia is a Great Power with a long history of conquering and subjugating it’s neighbours so it gets to decide what is in Ukraine’s best interest.

    Of course, the U.S. is also a Great Power but they aren’t allowed to support Ukraine’s fight against Russian fascism because that would be unfair to Russia – the dismal performance of Russia’s military is likely to make people doubt that Russia really is a Great Power. Therefore, everyone should not support Ukraine because it would be really humiliating if Russia failed to defeat Ukraine and was shown to not be a Great Power. It’s all perfectly logical when you think about it from the perspective of Russian resentment about other countries not recognizing its right to claim to be a Great Power.

    molgrips
    Full Member

    Yea, used to think he was a little eccentric but now think he’s an apologist for genocide.

    I don’t read it that way. I think his line of argument is not what you are expecting and you are misunderstanding. I think he is attempting to prompt you to step outside the middle-class Western groupthink by describing alternative views. I suspect he doesn’t think there’s much value in echo chambers, and I agree with him on that. I mean he’s clearly a pacifist, that doesn’t say ‘genocide supporter’ to me.

    nickc
    Full Member

    and plenty of them will pay Russia to provide either

    Then Putin probably shouldn’t have started an unwinnable war in Ukraine then should he? The Russian economy relies on exporting energy, any rational leader would not do anything that could or might jeopardise that.

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    It seems the new weapons are being used to strike at ammunition stores and long range or anti-aircraft systems. Apparently 11 ammunition stores in Russian territory within 24 hours.

    Caher
    Full Member

    I don’t read it that way. I think his line of argument is not what you are expecting and you are misunderstanding. I think he is attempting to prompt you to step outside the middle-class Western groupthink by describing alternative views.

    That sounds pretty patronising and pompous to me. I do not understand because I’m in some out of western group think? You think the west has a shared and homogeneous history? I can assure as someone from Ireland I do have the same views as my English friends. We know what it is like to be under the sphere of influence.

    molgrips
    Full Member

    That sounds pretty patronising and pompous to me. I do not understand because I’m in some out of western group think?

    No I’m not commenting on what you think, I’m saying what I think chewkw thinks.

    tthew
    Full Member

    It seems the new weapons are being used to strike at ammunition stores and long range or anti-aircraft systems. Apparently 11 ammunition stores in Russian territory within 24 hours.

    There were press reports, (may be entirely inaccurate of course) that the western supplied weapons weren’t to be fired into Russian territory which could be interpreted as  extra escalationary, so I wonder if they’ve purchased some from elsewhere. Maybe they’re managed to capture rather than destroy some Russian kit.

    boomerlives
    Free Member

    Perhaps ask them what they would do with hindsight if they knew this would happen

    They would likely say they would have assassinated Putin as a preventative measure.

    Or much simpler, they would ask you to keep your supercilious opinions out of their lives.

    Is either what you hope they would say?

Viewing 40 posts - 9,361 through 9,400 (of 11,616 total)

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