****.

Video captures the moment missile strikes right next to a Azov fighter, recording himself pic.twitter.com/n8TQLyLjrT

— Russia Ukraine Conflict (@Russiaconflict) May 26, 2022

Shows the benefit of a good trench!!

Anyone watch the Russian ambassador on Sunday Morning, a deluded monster’s lackey.

Threads gone real quiet….

It’s not going so well anymore, is it?

The Donbass battle is like WW1

It’s getting grimmer by the day

It’s not going so well anymore, is it?

Looks like it is going the way we were being told it would in that it is turning into a long drawn out war :(.  It is incredibly grim in 2022

Wet need to give the Ukrainians the weapons they need and stop messing around.

I read somewhere that those M777s had the computers removed.

I read somewhere that those M777s had the computers removed.

I think it was the case of removing one component that was needed for munitions that aren’t being supplied to Ukraine.

Despite the hashtags and lapel badges the united response of the West isn’t what it’s been cracked up to be is it?

In many European countries, coal, grain and oil imports from Russia are up on pre war levels. Ukraine is being drip fed munitions at a rate that can’t make a significant difference but never the less continues to degrade Russian military capability. So whilst the West twiddles it’s thumbs, at least the Russians are running out of equipment that will take them a fair few years to replace.

In this sense the west is using Ukranians as cannon fodder, they are being used to degrade Russian military capability whilst the West simultaneously keeps trade links open with Russia to protect their own domestic economies.

So whilst the West twiddles it’s thumbs…

So whilst the EU twiddles it’s thumbs… https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61638860
After more than three months, today (31 May), the EU finally agreed to ban imports in “a compromise that will not affect pipeline oil imports for now”.
The EU is Russia’s biggest customer and that’s just oil, then there’s the gas that they import
The US and UK made a similar decision to ban imports within a fortnight of the invasion of the Ukraine

Neither the U.K. nor US are particularly reliant on Russian oil so it’s a lot easier and not a fair comparison.

E.g. the U.K. imports more from the US

https://www.statista.com/statistics/381963/crude-oil-and-natural-gas-import-origin-countries-to-united-kingdom-uk/

It’s frankly a lot easier for us to cut that supply

As far as I can make out, if the EU (as a whole) simply cut the supply, there would not be an economy left in the EU to offer support to Ukraine anyway.

I don’t know if this £300 billion plan has progressed at all to have out the reliance for the EU

There’s plenty to criticise still admittedly.

I don’t know what the best approach is personally.

Anyone seen verification on these rumours?

Ukrainian defenders have won a key victory by taking control of the strategic town of Davydiv Brid in Kherson region. The Russian invaders have no reserves to deploy and lost the ability to securely supply the Inhulets River battlefront by road. The rashists are now in retreat. pic.twitter.com/8wlWTXogHY

— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) May 30, 2022

Again my thoughts are with the people of the towns being razed to the ground by Russian artillery. It’s clearly the policy now – flatten everything, progress a couple of km into the mess and repeat.

It’s a worry that the longer Russia can stretch this out, the fewer fighters Ukraine has even if they are sent more weapons.

I’m also trying to work out if there’s a slight pause on Ukr as new weapons are delivered, soldiers trained, and then head back to the front to use the weapons…?

Reading a few bits the suggestion is that Russia is still losing huge numbers of kit and soldiers, for a few km of gain, and that thier supply lines are again being stretched and stretched.

It’s a worry that the longer Russia can stretch this out, the fewer fighters Ukraine has even if they are sent more weapons.

Ukraine has more fighters to call on than Russia. Appalling as Ukrainian losses must be, I’d be surprised if this approach wasn’t taking a greater toll on Russian reserves. They are using WWII tactics against well-armed and well-motivated defenders.

If Ukraine can somehow hold Russia in Donetsk and Luhansk, and make inroads towards Kherson, then something will have to give for the Russian forces.

It’s a worry that the longer Russia can stretch this out, the fewer fighters Ukraine has even if they are sent more weapons.

I think the opposite is more likely. It’s probably “better” for the Ukrainians if the Russians are held in place and “attrited” down . Russian losses (both equipment and personnel) are unsustainable they can’t breakout and they don’t control the battle when they do, they need this war to be “won” sooner rather than later.

All wars have natural pauses as both sides regroup, don’t be at all surprised if the intensity picks up again.

Threads gone real quiet….

It’s not going so well anymore, is it?

Are you doing that ‘you’re not singing anymore’ footy chant? From the Kremlin end?

Agree with @nickc above.  The Russian equipment losses are staggering and there a lots of credible rumours of poor morale, troops refusing to fight etc.  Meanwhile the Ukrainians have tactically withdrawn to well prepared defences in places, and are mounting small offensives elsewhere placing even more pressure on the Russians. Yes the Russians have made small gains, but at huge cost.  It still comes back to morale and motivation in large part I think. Ukrainians are fighting for their homes, families and very right to exist as a sovereign nation. The Russians for some vague and spurious concept of ‘denazification’.

Threads gone real quiet….

It’s not going so well anymore, is it?

No, not for Russia it’s not.

Day 96 of my 3 day war. My army has moved 5 miles west since February. NATO has moved 600 miles east in the same time without losing single soldier but it's still been worth it.

I remain a master strategist.

— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) May 30, 2022

Stealing grain.
Stealing metal from the steel works.
What happened in Syria should have been a wake up call for us in the west.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian%E2%80%93Syrian_hospital_bombing_campaign

Anyone seen verification on these rumours?

Yep, they’ve definitely crossed the river! Hopefully they can push further south.

Yep, they’ve definitely crossed the river! Hopefully they can push further south.

On a futon?

In all seriousness though, hopefully it’s the case that the Russians have over-committed to the Donbas and are therefore vulnerable elsewhere. Kerson is key as iirc it controls the water supply into Crimea. If the Ukrainians regain control it’s almost back to square one for Vlad.

In the meantiime there is no doubt that Russian military ability is being seriously degraded. The way that their objectives have consistently scaled down is indicative of the fact that they know there is only so much that they even have a chance of succeeding in, before the guns/soldiers/support runs out.

Of course the EU are taking longer to drive forward meaningful sanctions on oil and gas, it’s difficult to get 20 off countries to agree on anything at the best of times. All told the Western response has been pretty much as good as could be hoped (and far wrose than Vlad expected).

As reported by ISW and elsewhere

Futon

Scroll down the the Kherson map

It’s not going so well anymore, is it?

I don’t think it’s going well for anyone. It’s all very depressing. I’ve stopped posting due to despondency rather than a lack of interest. Still amazed about what the Ukrainian people have managed up to this point. I fear that they’re going to be pretty much abandoned soon, as politicians in many countries begin to shift their positions towards accepting Putin’s aims. Not every politician that has been “talking tough” about the Russian advancement will stick to that once people in their own countries shift their focus away from the war… there will be plenty who don’t really care about, or even worse want to gain from, Putins’ aggression and worldwide political disinformation tactics.

I’m not so sure. Can’t see the US, UK or the states bordering Russia backing down so easily. France, Hungary and Germany not so much.

It’s utterly grim. Given the grimness, a perhaps tiny spark of goodness, our Ukranian guests arrived 8 or 9 days ago (Sunday week? Is that how we say it?) and appear to be settling in okay.

Eldest daughter is a computer science uni student and is thus far able to maintain her studies online. Younger daughter has just finished Ukraine school year and will have the last half term in our village school, along with maybe 8 other Ukrainians, including a friend from Dnipro! There are perhaps 7 or 8 families in the village at the moment, with I think 12 expected by mid June. The mom is making friends from this group – and doing English classes both online and in a nearby town. Right now it’s google translate all the way!

My daughter doing well with it all (helped by new dog!)! Wife also doing well, but she has been in France at a friend’s wedding since Thursday!

Village has been great. A school mom set up a uniform donation box, and then a fitting event. All primary kids now set with uniforms. Clarks in Didcot giving a discount on school shoes.

My bicycle was PostieRich’s old single-speed (from like 94?) that I put 24 inch wheels on, and then gears. It’s served me well for maybe 7 or 8 years, but have just dropped saddle tonight for youngest. Will ask in classified for a couple hundred pound bike for mom and elder daughter to share. I will make myself the first nice bike I’ve owned since I was 16 (and that was a road bike that was only nice cause it’s the only new bike I’ve ever had!)!

A separate thread on new bike (and old bike) and (more importantly!) new dog to follow.

So basically, we doing well in our house with our guests, and more broadly village seems to be doing okay too. I don’t mean it’s easy, or that I have any real idea what they’re going through, just that for now, given what’s going on, things seem okay.

Great work Markie. I reckon a whip around here could get your guests suitable bikes without you spending a penny.

That’s fantastic, which village is it?

As far as I can make out, if the EU (as a whole) simply cut the supply, there would not be an economy left in the EU to offer support to Ukraine anyway

Of course the EU are taking longer to drive forward meaningful sanctions on oil and gas, it’s difficult to get 20 off countries to agree on anything at the best of times. All told the Western response has been pretty much as good as could be hoped

No, it really hasn’t. Individual countries within the EU could easily make those decisions quickly, as the UK and US did, and sort a bloc decision out later. They’re not all as dependent as Hungary on Russian oil.
Germany’s top politicians have been happily helping Putin out for years and reaping the rewards, see Gerhard Schröder’s example…Germany’s former-Chancellor, now on the board of Rosneft and chair of the Nordstream pipeline and he isn’t the only one.
The EU leaders have been hiding behind the “need” for a bloc decision while failing to prioritise Ukrainian lives over their economy.
“The EU has been importing between 3 and 3.7 million barrels of Russian Urals oil per day, says Rystad Energy” and “Russia could earn at least $8.1 billion per month by exporting 3 million barrels per day to the EU at current Urals crude prices.” https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/oil-embargo-will-hurt-putin-more-than-eu-2022-05-31/
That’s an awful lot of grist to the Russian mill

I think that the point is the EU delay. An early decision by individual EU countries would have sent a strong message to Putin with a bloc vote following on more quickly than three months later.
The G7 made their decision three weeks before the EU; France, Italy and Germany are all G7 members with the EU represented (but not one of the 7).
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/who-is-still-buying-russian-crude-oil-2022-03-21/
I get that their ban needs to be a phasing out rather than outright, but it could have and should have been much sooner, especially as the Russian bear is knocking snow off its boots on the EU border
EDIT: We’re heading for a world food crisis while Europe faffs around

Individual countries within the EU could easily make those decisions quickly

Sweden, Finland, Poland all seem to have been pretty decisive.

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia too particularly with regards to energy imports.

Germany’s top politicians have been happily helping Putin out for years

Were both reading the same things here, but some of those opinions are as prone to bias as some ageing politicians are to corruption.

Thats not really meant to he a defence of the EU or its constituent countries, mainly i doubt the UKs stance on this would be the same if we suddenly had to fill 30+% of our energy needs in the space of a couple of weeks. Or even arguably, if Boris didnt need a deflection from being a total git.

especially as the Russian bear is knocking snow off its boots on the EU border

Do you mean in some sort of aggressive stance? Ukraine has been a meat-grinder for the Russian Military, it’s not going to be facing down anyone for the foreseeable, it’s just about hanging by it’s fingertips in Eastern Ukraine.

That should have been past tense 😳. If anything would make you react then surely it’s Russia heading across Ukraine

Sweden, Finland, Poland all seem to have been pretty decisive.
Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia too particularly with regards to energy imports.

Exactly the point. Lithuania gets 83% of its oil from Russia. Poland 58%. Estonia 34%. Germany uses 30%, but where was Europe’s biggest economy and fourth strongest in the world?

We’re both reading the same things here, but some of those opinions are as prone to bias as some ageing politicians are to corruption.

Merkel allowed Nordstream 2 (N2) to move forward (I’m not alleging corruption on her part) which would have made Russia’s intentions on Ukraine much easier to fulfill. N1 and N2 bypassed the Ukrainian overland pipelines and would lower the EUs threshold for objection to an invasion.
The EU denounced N2 as contrary to their energy strategy (as did other Western nations) and “The Russian president praised the German side’s steadfast loyalty regarding the completion of this purely commercial project that is designed to strengthen Germany’s energy security,” the Kremlin said in a statement.

Exactly the point. Lithuania gets 83% of its oil from Russia. Poland 58%. Estonia 34%. Germany uses 30%, but where was Europe’s biggest economy and fourth strongest in the world?

You raise the problem for Germany (setting appeasement aside).

Is it easier for those countries to find alternatives than Germany, as Germany’s energy usage is far higher?

Could those countries have been as decisive if Germany was fighting for the same energy?

Edited to add;

Kinda fallling into devils advocate territory here, which i dont really have any commitment too so I’ll take a pass now.

I’m not alleging corruption on her part

I was thinking mainly of Schroder

 then surely it’s Russia heading across Ukraine

Russia hasn’t moved across Ukraine, It hasn’t moved significantly since it invaded the Donbas in 2014, despite throwing most of it’s military capacity at it.

Whatever Russia did have as a military threat; is gone.

Germany’s had a problem with its “Putin Streichler” or Putin Caressers. Schroeder has finally been shamed into quitting the board of Rosnet. I’m sure he’s made plenty of money out of it, over the years.

Germany has also under-delivered to NATO for years. 2% of GDP was agreed upon in 2014, in 2018 Germany was estimated at 1.24%. France was the highest EU/G7 country at 1.81%
The only EU countries estimated to have hit 2% in 2018 were Greece, Estonia and Latvia (the UK at 2.14%). Poland were just under at 1.98%, Lithuania (1.96%) and Romania (1.93%).
A week after the invasion Germany announced a 100bn euro increase in funding to its own armed forces, in stark contrast to the 5000 helmets that they initially sent to the Ukraine. Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko asked, “What kind of support will Germany send next? Pillows?”
Have they finally acknowledged that they were too close to Putin?

It will be interesting IF the US sends the M142 rocket system over – there’s a lot of talk about it being a game changer.
Even with the shorter range missiles being supplied they will have double the range of the Russians and GPS targeting. So presumably the Russian artillery and supply lines will become very much more accessible.

M142… That would be bloody great.

Yes, I poked the thread, sorry.

I wonder how much training such a system requires?