Even if it doesn’t happen, it’s quite the achievement on Putin’s part that this is even talked about seriously. I guess his acolytes will tell us it’s part of his strategic masterplan to weaken the decadent West.

#Switzerland has the oldest policy of military neutrality in the world. It was established in 1815 by the Treaty of Paris and has survived two World Wars and the Cold War. A change in this policy would represent a major shift in foreign policy for the #Swiss. https://t.co/n8XdXNNgY6

— OSINT Aggregator (@AggregateOsint) May 17, 2022

And don’t forget… it isn’t actually a war. These people are basically just tourists who fancied a bit of rape, torture, theft, execution etc. No reason not to try them.

IAdefinitelyNAL

Interesting that the BBC has picked up on this story, they are normally very cautious about broadcasting unsubstantiated rumours

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61461805?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6284d362c6835775caca87f9%26Several%20Russian%20units%20refusing%20to%20fight%20in%20war%20-%20Ukrainian%20intelligence%262022-05-18T17%3A38%3A05.890Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:1fbffae3-1b56-41e6-8dbb-a21ec28f7a29&pinned_post_asset_id=6284d362c6835775caca87f9&pinned_post_type=share

There’s been stories of Russians refusing to fight since the war started but I have always dismissed them as wishful thinking, or at best very few isolated instances that were overblown. But maybe it is actually a thing?

Russia hasn’t officially mobilised or declared war, so Russian mercenaries aren’t compelled to fight. It’s a bit of a catch-22 for the Russians, a declaration of war upon Ukraine will further isolate them from the global community, so finding enough soldiers is proving problematic.

Also, much like a certain other fascist dictator Putin is micro-managing Russian assets in the conflict.

Time lapse of Russia in Ukraine.

It’s not exactly a blitzkrieg, is it?

I’d say results matter, and there’s definate results… Even slowly.

I’d say results matter, and there’s definate results… Even slowly.

Basically, Russia have not achieved any of their strategic goals. They’ve made some very small tactical gains, but at massive expense. They have lost a lot of soldiers and equipment and what they have left must be degrading pretty steadily. By the end of summer it’s difficult to see Russia being able to anything other than dig in and use artillery to try and hold off Ukrainian counter-offensives.

Getting more and more on this–think this kind of analysis does not entirely understand how this war is evolving and what matters. First of all, the idea of a town falling and this leading to a large Ukrainian force being surrounded assumes the Russians can break out. https://t.co/WXRjL4ZCuP

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 19, 2022

But, apparently, Russian victory is imminent.

Today retired colonel Mikhail Khodaryonok made another appearance on Russian state TV, just two days after he gave a damning assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine and its growing international isolation

It appears that someone's given him a bit of a talking to

(with subtitles) pic.twitter.com/M1u2q8L2Tn

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) May 18, 2022

Some of the comments in the video were sensible – no doubt the Russians will be targeting Ukrainian artillery and the Ukrainians are unlikely to achieve naval supremacy in the Black Sea. On the other hand, I doubt the Russians will be able to destroy all the new artillery and I don’t see that a counterattack requires naval supremacy as there are long land borders.

Very weird video.

Germany going the right way…

#UPDATE Germany has removed official perks accorded to former chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, assessing that he has failed to uphold the obligations of his office by refusing to sever ties with Russian energy giants pic.twitter.com/qiTv2kh1fR

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) May 19, 2022

EU announced 300 billion Euro investment to “quit” Russian oil and gas

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/eu-plans-300-billion-euro-investment-quit-russian-fossil-fuels-2022-05-18/

Which honestly, shouldn’t have needed a war to instigate

Tom Nichols knows more than most about Russia, sees a change in direction in Russian tone.

https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/peacefield/628410120a81280021a42fd1/russia-ukraine-war-outcome-changing/

The Russians, of course, are trying to explain their failures by saying that they’re fighting NATO. They have to say this, because they know they’re fighting Ukrainians—and losing, and this is far more humiliating than losing to the United States and NATO. This, combined with sanctions, means the war fever Putin whipped up three months ago is cooling—and getting colder by the moment.

Does this new realism mean that Putin is going to lay off the wild-eyed rhetoric and escalatory threats? Maybe. Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO, and the Kremlin shrugged. Everyone in Moscow knows this is a diplomatic defeat of the first order; even in the darkest days of the Cold War, the Finns and Swedes cautiously remained culturally and politically pro-West but militarily nonaligned. Putin has done something no Soviet leader ever managed to achieve: the nearly complete unification of Europe against Russia.

But it’s one thing to wave away the long timetable of Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Is there any hope that the Russians will begin to wind down this war?

So far, there’s no evidence for that. I’ll be watching for more diplomatic openings and high-level contacts, along with any possible preparation of the Russian public for an outcome that isn’t the total victory they were promised. What I will not expect is that Russia will scale back the violence; Putin isn’t a big believer in cease-fires or humanitarian corridors. He won’t want to stop killing Ukrainians for their defiance. I’m not going to use the term off-ramp because he doesn’t believe in those, either.

But Putin may have to settle for turning this war of conquest into yet another frozen conflict, where he feeds Russian boys into the meat grinder while pondering his next idiotic move. How long Russians—and the Russian military—will put up with that is anyone’s guess.

Which honestly, shouldn’t have needed a war to instigate

Agreed. Lesson learnt though. And being acted on.

Back at reactor 4

Interesting thread on Russian tank storage.

I think it's likely that the vast majority of the 10,000 tanks in storage are either unusable or so obsolete that they would be (even more of) death traps in Ukraine. If the Ukrainian and IISS figures are correct, Russia may have lost nearly 45% of its usable tank force. /26

— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) May 19, 2022

Some comments and a lot of love and respect for Fergal Keane a couple of pages back.

Well for a moment to chuck a lighter mood on a very dark thread, here’s Fergal in his formative years (1988).

https://www.rte.ie/archives/2018/0108/931826-alligator-in-belfast-pub/

NY Times on Bucha war crimes

The video ends. But eight witnesses recounted to The Times what happened next. Soldiers took the men behind a nearby office building that the Russians had taken over and turned into a makeshift base. There were gunshots. The captives didn’t return.

A drone video filmed a day later on March 5, also obtained by The Times, is the first visual evidence that confirms the eyewitness accounts. It showed the dead bodies lying on the ground by the side of the office building at 144 Yablunska Street as two Russian soldiers stood guard beside them. Among the bodies, a flash of bright blue was visible — the captive in the blue sweatshirt.

http://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/world/europe/russia-bucha-ukraine-executions.html

Hopefully this will become common.

BREAKING: 🇷🇺 Russia’s Counsellor to the United Nations in Geneva has resigned.

Boris Bondarev: “Never have I been so ashamed of my country.”

UN Watch is now calling on all other Russian diplomats at the United Nations—and worldwide—to follow his moral example and resign.

🧵: pic.twitter.com/ZuKqq0gJO8

— Hillel Neuer (@HillelNeuer) May 23, 2022

Off topic but related to another state with ambitions to consume a neighbour or two

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/23/us-would-defend-taiwan-if-attacked-by-china-says-joe-biden

Ambiguity dropped a few notches

Ambiguity dropped a few notches

Blimey! It’ll be interesting to see if they backtrack again

Hopefully this will become common

Agreed, this is a great story. It would mean torching your career and possibly more though!

This is how ruSSia fights in front lines. Scorched earth, a strategy still widely used by orcs to "liberate" areas. from ukraine

Magnesium… Burns upon contact with air. Burns anything it lands on, including people.

From a redditor….

If you are wondering what this, it’s a magnesium incendiary weapon designed to set a large area on fire. The missile explodes high in the air over the target and throws out burning magnesium pellets over a large area. The pellets fall to the ground and hopefully start a fire that kills your enemies or damages their equipment/infrastructure or destroys the tree cover they are hiding under.

If you look carefully at about 15 seconds into the video, you can see what looks like a tree on fire.

Magnesium is applied to fields as a fertiliser, it is essential for plants and humans and also makes up about 13% of the earth’s crust. It isn’t toxic but burns real good.

It’s a “special fertiliser operation” with a free fireworks & bonfire show.

Aren’t they taking ‘scorched earth’ a bit too literally here?

Aren’t they taking ‘scorched earth’ a bit too literally here?

I don’t think the Russians understand ‘hearts and minds’ in any shape or form.

As per usual, they just dont GAF. The rules of war and international norms are for the weak.

Where to begin with that… Magnesium does not burn on contact with the air. It is reactive, sure, but it readily forms magnesium oxide and tarnishes from bright metal to a milky white very quickly. Depending on the pebble size, if there is a large area burst, the pebbles could burn out pretty quickly. If the pebbles are large enough to keep burning to the ground, then they will be harder to light because of thermal mass and surface area to volume ratios.

White Phosphorus (Willie Pete of Viet Nam fame) would be a better choice for the job. Legitimately _does_ burn on contact with air and keeps burning, burning into skin, flesh, whatever. Toxic fumes, horrific burns, no wonder its use as a weapon is banned, but a _lot_ would be needed to scorch-earth an area, so its uses are kind of tactical, even if they are horrific. If this is legit footage, and if it is Phosphorus, then it is more evidence of illegal acts by Russia.

Note the “IF”.

Not illegal though because Russia aren’t signatories to those treaties.

The russians seem to still be able to block sea shipments of food from Ukraine to other countries, I imagine that will sharpen the resolve of several countries sooner rather than later.

I can’t see how this will end well for russia, they might end up with a bit of extra territory in the short term, but the backlash is massive, and the sanctions won’t be lifted any time soon, if even in our life times.

You have to wonder what putins ideal end game is here..or if he even has one.

Not illegal though because Russia aren’t signatories to those treaties.

@dantsw13 No, still illegal under international law, just that it means Russia won’t give a fsck.

You have to wonder what putins ideal end game is here..or if he even has one.

I don’t think he has one, just thrashing about pointlessly like a child who’s dropped their ice cream

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1529801747782311936

Russian media is now warning that food insecurity will lead to cannibalism in Britain

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) May 25, 2022

WW1 propaganda in the 21st century.

Just the usual Russian projection. You only have to go back to the 1920s to find examples of widespread cannabalism in Russia. Interestingly, the famine which caused that led to the US sending large amounts of food aid to the region.

Best stock up on Fava beans and nice Chianti then.

Interesting Twitter thread about Donetsk conscripts getting uppity about being cannon fodder deployed to Luhansk and how they are trying to play the very procedural and algorithmic Russian bureaucracy to avoid it.  Also how Russia is trying to use as many fighters as possible from DPR and LPR to throw against the Ukr defences, because they aren’t counted amongst Russian casualties when they get killed. Cynical. You do start to wonder if those in the enclaves who previously welcomed the Russians might be having the scales removed from their eyes.

War and Procedure

It's not the Russian regulars who are bearing the main burden of war in Eastern Ukraine. It is the troops of pro-Russian puppet states Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic. Just now 105th and 107th regiments of the DPR refused to fight 🧵 pic.twitter.com/TeUKFuUWtO

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) May 25, 2022

You do start to wonder if those in the enclaves who previously welcomed the Russians might be having the scales removed from their eyes.

One can but hope.

News: The Biden admin is preparing to send Ukraine advanced, long-range rocket systems—known as MLRS and HIMARS—that are now the top request from Ukrainian officials, multiple officials say.
Approval could be announced as soon as next week. https://t.co/wma6skIx8X

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) May 26, 2022