I agree with Mattyfez – this isn’t about western investment. If you can’t have confidence you can get your money back that will be as much an issue for China and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds as it is for McDonalds…

@bruneep, lots of snippets coming out about the Azovstal defenders. Some suggestions there may have been a prisoner exchange with Russia. Apparently Zelenskky will make a statement later.

Worth a watch https://t.co/pkEcEfSZSw

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 16, 2022

Mariupol being reported as fallen with Ukrainian troops being bused out towards Russian controlled areas.

Inevitable and tragic on so many levels.

If they get out alive they will have done more than anyone could have hoped for.

That Russian TV clip is interesting – first time I’ve seen a Russian TV pundit make any degree of sense!

OFFICIAL FROM UKRAINE!
53 injured Azovstal troops evacuated to occupied Novoazovsk for medical treatment. 211 more taken to occupied Olenivka.
There will be a prisoner swap!
The rest of the Azovstal garrison is yet to be rescued.

— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) May 16, 2022

That (those) clips of the Russian pundit saying what he’s saying is pretty powerful. If the propaganda channels are starting to question – if not turn against – the official narrative, that’s somewhat profound. If I were Vlad I wouldn’t be accepting a drink from anyone unless the lid is still firmly attached to the bottle..

That Russian TV clip is interesting – first time I’ve seen a Russian TV pundit make any degree of sense!

Agreed.  And although the host was trying to stay on message he wasn’t having any of it.

If I were Vlad I wouldn’t be accepting a drink from anyone unless the lid is still firmly attached to the bottle..

Except the FSB got pretty good at putting the tops back on bottles with their anti-anti-doping programme.

So do the Russian army parade the Ukraine azovstal on state tv?
They want to claim a win and this might be it.
It is of course abject failure on the Russian army but that won’t stop Putin.

That TV clip is excellent. Hopefully reality is starting to set in for Russians. Whether it makes any difference to Putin’s strategy is another question though.

Find it hard to believe that TV clip statement wasn’t signed off prior to airing assuming the translation is true.

Read an interesting article this morning re that TV clip, that essentially the regime won’t mind – and may even have cleared it in advance – as they need to start changing the mindset in Russia, moving it away from the Special Operation and the quick win. Preparing the ground, as it where, for either an escalation (declare war and mobilise) or a de-escalation and the humiliation that comes with that.

I’ll have to watch it again  but iirc there’s no real criticism of regime and army leadership per se, its more about how motivated – and therefore strong – the Ukrainians are. A reason for Russia’s comparative failure, not an excuse..

…….and also blaming the Russian military for not being as committed, hence not Putins fault.

Putin making military decisions in Donbas

Good. That’s what did for Hitler.

Meanwhile what do we make of Erdogan?

^ I am expecting Putin-themed versions of the famous Downfall scene of Hitler in the bunker going batshit…

I do wonder abou the ‘Putin making military decisions in Donbass’ story & the complaints of those like Igor Girkin (Donetsk separatist military commander/secret police torturer) that the commander of that disastrous river crossing is a moron….

I assumed Putin has been making all the military decisions from the start tbh. From what I’ve read/heard the Russian army doesn’t have a command structure like most western armies do. Putin seems oblivious to the fact that being fed bullshit information about what’s really happening on the ground leads to disastrous decisions. He also seems to be oblivious that every single move his army makes is being tracked by satellites. I really don’t think he realises the technology he’s been up against.

Maybe he really believes he has 100,000 tanks and 2million soldiers in ~Reserve???

Meanwhile what do we make of Erdogan?

Personally, I don’t think Turkey brings anything to NATO and I’d be willing to bet that the corrupt religious nutcase that is Erdogan would veto any NATO action anyway.

Kick them out of NATO.

Personally, I don’t think Turkey brings anything to NATO and I’d be willing to bet that the corrupt religious nutcase that is Erdogan would veto any NATO action anyway.

Kick them out of NATO.

They have the second largest army in NATO
their Bayaktar drones have had a huge impact on keeping Ukraine in the war & their blockage of teh Bosphorus has kept Russias other fleets out of the black sea

erdogan is still a colossal prick

Personally, I don’t think Turkey brings anything to NATO

Apart from control over the Bosphorus, and a lot of staging points for NATO forces for middle eastern adventuring.

They buy a lot of guns as well, so the US will be keen to keep them.

The downside is that it is rubbing up against even more unstable areas and the mutual aid treaties mean that NATO forces could get dragged in.

It’s hard not to be suspicious that Erdogan is pulling a fast one with the veto in return for some quid pro quo from Putin.

It’s hard not to be suspicious that Erdogan is pulling a fast one with the veto in return for some quid pro quo from Putin.

Or from the US? Or the EU (membership???)

I’m not saying he’ll get anything out of this but you can bet he’s trying.

Or from the US?

Someone should do a welfare check on the opposition cleric he wanted extradited to make sure he’s not been bundled into the back of a van and driven towards the airport.

Erdogan has previous

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40013507

Turkey has vetoed Nato’s co-operation with Austria, a move which had blocked the alliance’s partnership activities with 41 countries.

Turkey is angry with Austria for trying to block its bid to join the EU.

Sounds like Austria is no better there.

Probably haven’t forgiven the Ottoman Empire for repeatedly laying siege to Vienna.

Ive made, what so far is the mistake, of watching Fergal Keanes living with PTSD on iplayer. Hard to think of anyone thats seen more horror in more places.

It was sort of ok until it got to Rwanda.

The aftermath of Putins war is going to destroy lives for a lifetime.

We have a family of three arriving on Sunday. If anyone has any links they think might be helpful, please pass them on. I’m nervous about how it will go, but positive. It will be an experience!

We have a family of three arriving on Sunday. If anyone has any links they think might be helpful, please pass them on. I’m nervous about how it will go, but positive. It will be an experience

Nothing to say other than you are doing a fantastic thing there

Ive made, what so far is the mistake, of watching Fergal Keanes living with PTSD on iplayer. Hard to think of anyone thats seen more horror in more places.

I’m a bit biased I suppose, but I really have a lot of time for FK and have done for years. But listening to him talk about some of the horrors he’s seen. As the kids say, “I just can’t even…” 😞

In other news, slim majority in Finnish parliament vote on joining NATO.

I have to say I dont think war correspondents get even a tiny amount of the respect they deserve, bringing these stories to the world is just so important.

Good that he has stepped away, he’s done more than his share over the years.

In other news, slim majority in Finnish parliament vote on joining NATO.

You had me going for a minute.

I have to say I dont think war correspondents get even a tiny amount of the respect they deserve, bringing these stories to the world is just so important.

Good that he has stepped away, he’s done more than his share over the years.

Mate of mine is a freelance cameraman, works for all the major networks. Good mate of his is the main cameraman for ITN. Spent a couple of weekends biking with him. Very chilled guy, but my god he has been in some hairy situations. Huge amount of respect for all of them tbh

The Azovstal situation is worrying. There is a malevolence to comments from Russia, a reserving of the “right” to ill-treat the Ukrainian soldiers.
And no clarity of how many may be left who haven’t surrendered.
🙁

I think while the eyes of the world are on them, they should have some protection, and don’t forget that Ukraine holds a large number of Russian prisoners too. I suspect the possible criminal trials are designed to mirror the Ukrainian position. When they disappear from view it will be more worrying..

I think while the eyes of the world are on them, they should have some protection, and don’t forget that Ukraine holds a large number of Russian prisoners too.

I really wouldn’t be surprised if Russia didn’t execute them just to make a statement that they do whatever they want and don’t care what anyone thinks. Ukraine can’t retaliate or they will lose the moral high ground.

I imagine that Putin will need some show trials & forced confessions to prop up his narrative

unfortunately it looks like Russia is having more success in Donbass than previously elsewhere

#Lyman Update – The situation around #Lyman is rapidly deteriorating for #Ukrainian troops. Today, #Russia captured Novoselivka to the NW and may have captured Yarova. Lyman is now surrounded on three sides with only destroyed bridges over the Donets on the 4th side. pic.twitter.com/xDWQah0EYs

— OSINT Aggregator (@AggregateOsint) May 18, 2022

supply line from DPR & Crimea are much stronger

I suspect the possible criminal trials are designed to mirror the Ukrainian position

Would tend to agree with that. It’s a bit naughty of Ukraine to be having public trials at this point I would have thought so this is looking like some push back against that

To be fair, if the Russian troops have been captured and evidence exists of them being involved in theft, rape, extra-judiciary execution or torture, then I see no reason why they cannot be tried under existing LOAC rules. If they have representation, then they will be able to answer the case and evidence brought against them.

If the case cannot be proven, then they can stay a PoW. If the case is proven, then they get gaol.

IANAL.